UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs. Bader: Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Facebook Prelims

170 lbs. – Yuri Villefort (0-1 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (0-1 UFC) – Spencer via S. decision

Villefort used his leg and body kicks well, but Spencer was able to counter with many more punches to the face as well as stuffing all but one of Villefort’s takedown attempts.

Fox Sports Prelims

170 lbs. – Keith Wisniewski (0-3 UFC) vs. Ivan Jorge (0-0 UFC) – Jorge via U. decision

Wisniewski landed several hard knees to the head of Jorge but he couldn’t finish and Jorge did a good job of landing kicks and controlling the clinch battles against the cage.

185 lbs. – Joao Zeferino (1-1 UFC) vs. Elias Silverio (0-0 UFC) – Silverio via U. decision

Zeferino was able to put Silverio on his back but couldn’t amount much offense and Silverio did a great job of defending Zeferino’s attacks while landing several good strikes and a trip takedown of his own.

135 lbs. – Lucas Martins (1-1 UFC) vs. Ramiro Hernandez Jr. (0-0 UFC) – Martins via submission

Both men traded hard punches and kicks early on but it was Martins who landed a beautiful right hand that dropped Hernandez and allowed Martins to sink in the rear naked choke in round 1.

145 lbs. – Felipe Arantes (2-1-1 UFC) vs. Edimilson Souza (0-0 UFC) – Souza via S. decision

Arantes was able to land multiple takedowns but he couldn’t do any damage to Souza. On the feet Souza was able to land several hard right hands that clearly hurt Arantes and gave him the decision win.

Main Card

125 lbs. – Marcos Vinicius (1-1 UFC) vs. Ali Bagautinov (0-0 UFC) – Bagautinov via TKO

Bagautinov was able to get his takedowns almost at will against Vinicius as well as landing multiple punches during striking exchanges. Bagautinov finished with a nice right hand and ground and pound.

185 lbs. – Rafael Natal (4-2-1 UFC) vs. Tor Troeng (1-0 UFC) – Natal via U. decision

Natal showed that he isn’t just a grappler and has been working on his striking. Natal was able to drop Troeng with a huge right hand as well as control him on the ground from top control.

155 lbs. – Francisco Trinaldo (3-1 UFC) vs. Piotr Hallmann (0-0 UFC) – Hallman via submission

Hallman was able to overcome a 1st round onslaught from Trinaldo which included several vicious body kicks that hurt Hallman, and came back in the 2nd round with 2 takedowns and a Kimura for the finish.

125 lbs. – Joseph Benavidez (5-1 UFC) vs. Jussier Formiga (1-1 UFC) – Benavidez via TKO

Formiga was throwing good strikes back at Benavidez, but the power of Benavidez quickly came through when he stunned Formiga with a right hand, dropped him with a knee and finished him with g&p.

185 lbs. – Yushin Okami (13-4 UFC) vs. Ronaldo Souza (1-0 UFC) – Souza via TKO

Souza was moving extremely well using his faints and walking Okami down trying to land a big right hand. Okami threw a knee and left his hands down allowing Souza to land that big punch on his chin.

205 lbs. – Glover Teixeira (4-0 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (8-3 UFC) – Teixeira via TKO

Bader came out quickly with powerful punches that dropped Teixeira, but Bader let his guard down and Teixeira recovered then countered with a hard right and left hand that dropped Bader for the TKO.

UFC Fight Night 28

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Yushin Okami $3.36
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Price: $3.36 x Bet: $100
Payout: $336
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
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Price: $2.96 x Bet: $50
Payout: $148
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
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Price: $2.56 x Bet:$50
Payout: $128
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Joao Zeferino $2.16
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Price: $2.16 x Bet: $50
Payout: $108
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $1.56
Selection 2: Yushin Okami $3.36
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Price: $5.24 x Bet: $75
Payout:$393
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Sean Spencer $1.83
Selection 2: Joao Zeferino $2.16
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Price: $3.95 x Bet: $75
Payout: $296.25
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $1.56
Selection 2: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
Selection 3: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
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Price: $11.82 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1182

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Yushin Okami $3.36
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Price: $3.36 x Bet: $50
Payout: $168
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $1.56
Selection 2: Joao Zeferino $2.16
Selection 3: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
===================================================
Price: $8.63 x Bet: $50
Payout: $431.50
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
Selection 2: Yushin Okami $3.36
Selection 3: Joao Zeferino $2.16
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Price: $21.48 x Bet: $25
Payout: $537
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Sean Spencer $1.83
Selection 2: Felipe Arantes $1.56
Selection 3: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
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Price: $25 x Bet: $8.45
Payout: $211.25
 
Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
Selection 2: Yushin Okami $3.36
Selection 3: Felipe Arantes $1.56
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Price: $13.42 x Bet: $50
Payout: $671
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Yushin Okami $3.36
Selection 2: Joao Zeferino $2.16
Selection 3: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
Selection 4: Felipe Arantes $1.56
===================================================
Price: $29.98 x Bet: $20
Payout: $579.68
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
Selection 2: Sean Spencer $1.83
Selection 3: Yushin Okami $3.36
===================================================
Price: $18.20 x Bet: $364.01
Payout:
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $1.56
Selection 2: Joao Zeferino $2.16
Selection 3: Ramiro Hernandez $2.56
Selection 4: Keith Wisniewski $2.96
===================================================
Price: $25.53 x Bet: $10
Payout: $255.30
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Yuri Villefort $1.91 vs

I have backed Villefort twice before and got burned both times, but I try to remove that from the equation. To me, he is talented but lacks that polished feel to his game. His striking is wild and short of some solid leg kicks and the ability to take a big shot he is a loss against most opponents. His ground game is above average, but he makes some positional mistakes and has shown an inability to finish. Piling on top of all of this is his cardio. He seems to slow down about half way through his fights and that makes him even less effective. Spencer is a striker and if he gets put on his back he is in big trouble, but I think he should be able to do enough defensively to avoid that fate. He fought his debut against a BJJ Black belt in Rafael Natal at MW and that is a pretty good experience to build on. I think he will be able to capitalize on some opening, and while putting Villefort away is tough, he will do enough to steal a close decision. I really liked his line when it opened around the mid $2.40 range, but he has dropped a tonne and as a result I think the play here is to use him in a couple of parlays and nothing more. There are enough single bets that should be ahead of him to occupy your money.

Keith Wisniewski $2.96 vs

Jorge is a massive favourite here for a guy in his circumstance. He is moving up a division, fighting on short notice, and making his debut. These are all major detractors from backing him in the fight. He is talented and is the Jungle Fight Lightweight champion, so he is far from a scrub, but I still think that Wisniewski is the bet here. He has been preparing for this fight for a while and he is a veteran that has fought at this level and against other fighters at this level a number of times. The layoff is a concern and so is fighting in Brazil, but I think his size and experience advantage will show up huge here. Jorge is at his best when he can get the fight to the ground and that could be tough against a savvy ground fighter like Wisniewski. Paying out at almost $3.00 is a pretty hard odd to pass up and I think the line should be closer. I think that this bet deserves a mid-sized single bet. In the next breakdown I go into some of the drawbacks of following a favourite in this scenario as it applies for both this fight and Zeferino vs Silverio.

Joao Zeferino $2.16 vs

This fight along with any other on the card with a debuting fighter especially from Brazil should have an asterisk beside it as far as betting is concerned. I have talked before about the number of upsets that usually take place during the first 2 fights on any card because this is where the least known fighters usually fight and the books have a harder time figuring out where the line should be. They struggle to set the line and the big upsets are a real possibility because of the lack of footage/ knowledge about these fighters and this applies in spades to this card. In the 5 prelims there are 4 fighters debuting, 4 that have fought 2 times or less in the UFC, and 5 guys that are changing weight classes. This is a lot of uncertainty for the odds makers and as can be seen with the Nikita Krylov line from UFC 164 they can be dead wrong when setting the favourite. With Krylov and I believe with Silverio they look at their records, see that they have been wrecking their opponents and then make a judgement based on that. I am sure they spend some time reviewing footage, but there are so many question marks about these new guys they can’t always get a good read. Additionally, I think lines like these can be used as a trap to draw in the average and often uniformed bettors. They see an undefeated fighter as the favourite and jump on him without a second thought and the books win out if the dog takes the fight. I think that Silverio has decent striking skills and is alright from top position, but he has limited experience with strong grapplers, has yet to face any real adversity, and then when you throw in the debut factor it can be a lot for a veteran fighter, let alone a young one. I think that on these influences alone that Zeferino as the dog is a decent play here and Silverio is being overvalued. I would put him at a mid-sized single bet along with use in a couple of parlays.

Lucas Martins $1.54 vs

Lucas Martins is lucky to still have a job. He tapped to strikes in his debut and then got smashed in his second fight right up until the stunningly quick third round KO. Now he is cutting to 135, from 155 which is a big drop to do over one fight. He is aggressive and has power, but his striking is so wild he leaves a boat load of counterable openings to exploit. Hernandez is making his debut and is a relative unknown, but he has some next level experience beating Eric Wisely twice and facing Bellator champ Pat Curran earlier in his career. Hernandez formerly fought at 155, moved to 145 for a dozen fights or so and is now making a less drastic cut to 135. Physically there isn’t much difference between he and Martins, which erases the potential physical gains for Martins resulting from the cut to 135. Ramiro is more technical with his striking and I think he should be able to exploit the openings that Martins leaves. Martins should not be this big of a favourite, even at home, even over a debuting fighter. He hasn’t show that much and the number of times he has got tagged and dropped is a major concern. I expect that he is going to have trouble with the speed of his new division, and although Ramiro is cutting down to, at least he has been competing at 145 which should have him better prepared. I think a single bet on Hernandez is a good play, he pays well and I think these odds should be closer together (they might be close to the fight day so don’t wait on this one).

Felipe Arantes $1.56 vs

The playable favourites on this card are far and few between, but I like Arantes. Souza presents some interesting challenges with his height and boxing skills, but I think that Felipe overcomes them with a more diverse striking attack and some serviceable grappling skills. Arantes doesn’t offer the pop of some of the other top options on the prelims, but I think he makes a decent contribution to your parlays. With the limited number of bettable options on the main card (I’ve warned you) I think we have to make use of what we have. Let’s hope that Arantes doesn’t take a big downturn and join the rest of the unlikeable betting favs. This should be a good fight too, so make sure you don’t miss it.

Marcos Vinicius $2.92 vs

The list of unappealing favourites on this card is a big one. To say the least I was letdown by the odds here as I expected that Ali wouldn’t be nearly as big a favourite as he is. Marcos hasn’t look good at all in his UFC run and is lucky to still have a job. He pulled a rabbit out of his hat in his debut and then got smashed in his second fight. Ali is a decorated grappler, but with limit crossover in opponents it is hard to gauge how he will fair over here. I can watch all the footage available (and I did), but what is to say that winning those fights converts to winning these fights- nothing. Its hard to back a fighter making his debut and doing it in Brazil. I just think there are too many issues, especially when you figure in the cut to Flyweight for Marcos. No Play!

Rafael Natal $1.39 vs T

I think that books are trying to cover their backsides in any fight that involves a Brazilian in Brazil. They know that there a number of factors that give them an edge in the fight, including the UFC booking winnable fights for the locals to keep the fans happy and coming back for more. No one wants to see their fellow countrymen get beaten fight after fight. I almost took Tor in this fight, but the concerning fact that he continually opted to engage both of his previous BJJ Black belts on the ground, to his own detriment, was just too much to overlook. If Troeng was more convincing (in the footage that I have seen) with his striking capabilities I would be tempted to take him, but he just seems way to grappling oriented. Natal hasn’t blown me away in his last 2 bouts, but I think he gets the nod here between his grappling, home field advantage, and serviceable striking. Again, he, like many of the other main card favourites is very much unappealing based on his low paying price. If he were to skip up to the $1.50 range (one can dream), then he might be worth a play but for the most part he is probably worth leaving off the card too. After all I didn’t have a inclination to take Tor for no reason.

Francisco Trinaldo $1.33 vs

I think that the UFC is going to have trouble finding name opponents to fight Trinaldo. He is a huge risk and offers little in value (as of right now) if you do manage to beat him. Hallmann is an interesting prospect, but I don’t like the way he matches up with Trinaldo. Unless Trinaldo gasses out or Hallmann can blitz him with a big shot this is going to be an up hill battle for the debutant. Additionally, coming out of Europe is always a question mark with regard to how they will fair once they meet up with proven talent from this side of the ocean. It seems to be a trend here, but I just don’t feel all that excited about betting on Trinaldo with his value being so low and the unknown about how his opponent will perform. I might consider using him on a parlay, but his involvement will be minimal and leaving him off all together is probably just as good a play from a betting stand point.

Joseph Benavidez $1.22 vs

Unless Joe makes a mistake and Formiga can finish him, I just don’t see Jussier winning this fight. The odds are low here and there is no need to spend too much time beating around the cage, just leave this fight alone. Benavidez wins it, but seriously who wants to play so much to win so little. Not me and you shouldn’t either.

Yushin Okami $3.36 vs

What does Yushin Okami have to do to gain a little respect around these parts. I will admit I picked against him versus Lombard which was a major mistake, but I did suggest that he was a solid value bet in my bet pack. Now looking at his resume, short of Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, and a fluke final round against Tim Boetsch, he has beaten a number of top level MWs- Lombard, Belcher x2, Marquardt, and Munoz. I know some of these guys aren’t fighting at MW anymore and only 1 (Munoz) is a top 10 ranked fighter, but the reason these guys changed division or aren’t ranked in the top 10 is partially due to losing to Okami. Conversely, Jacare has a win over Tim Kennedy as his biggest victory and there is a lot of evidence suggesting that he could have lost that fight. His other higher level opponent, Luke Rockhold, beat him to take the title in another close fight. Jacare has looked like a killer of late, but his competition has been anything but top level. It was clear that in Strikeforce he was being protected (Marunde and Brunson?) in order to set up an eventual title rematch. The his final Strikeforce fight and UFC debut he faced some decent competition, but still not top level like Okami or who he has faced. I think Okami should be able to stuff the TDAs of Jacare and get the better of the striking on the feet. Jacare’s striking is improving, but it will be a big task for him to win an entire fight based on those skills against Yushin. Okami pays too well for what he has done and is capable of. His value is rising and that trend could continue, but even if it doesn’t at $3.36 that is a great price. Compared to some of my other underdog picks, he is the most known quantity and that ranks him at the top of the list for a solid single bet. I would also recommend using him in a parlay or 2, something with on the small size at 2-3 fighters.

Glover Teixeira $1.33 vs

This line is trending down if you are backing Glover and that isn’t a good thing. Bader does offer some stylistic issues for the Brazilin based on his wrestling background, but will it be enough to pull off the upset? I don’t see Bader being able to lay on top of Glover for at least 3 rounds (unless he gasses) and a submission is out of the question. Bader could find a home for a big over hand right, but that is a puncher’s chance at best and I guess if Glover’s gas tank doesn’t hold up we could see a stoppage or a decision, but that is a big if. Teixeira hits hard and is the better striker and I have some questions about Bader’s ability to take a big punch. Additionally, he is nasty on the mat and as a wrestler Bader wont be too fond of fighting off his back. Taking all of this into consideration, Bader is the play here but his diminishing value and the rash of recent UFC upsets cautions me (and you) to stay away from this bet. I think there will be a parlay or 2 that make sense here, but not the straight up bet.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Joseph Benavidez $1.22

2. Glover Teixeira $1.33

3. Francisco Trinaldo $1.33

4.

5. Rafael Natal $1.39

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6. Felipe Arantes $1.56

7. Yushin Okami $3.36

8. Joao Zeferino $2.16

9. Ramiro Hernandez $2.56

10. Keith Wisniewski $2.96

11. Sean Spencer $1.83


 

Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: 37-13-1 73%

Best Prediction Record: Glover Teixeira (4-0-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Yuri Villefort (0-2-0)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Ryan Bader vs. Glover Teixeira 9-2-0 82%

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Yushin Okami vs. Ronaldo Souza 8-5-0 62%

Main Card

Ryan Bader (5-2-0) vs. Glover Teixeira (4-0-0)

Yushin Okami (3-4-0) vs. Ronaldo Souza (5-1-0)

Joseph Benavidez (4-1-0) vs. Jussier Formiga (1-1-0)

Piotr Hallmann (0-0-0) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (2-1-0)

Rafael Natal (3-0-0) vs. Tor Troeng (1-0-0)

Ali Bagautinov (0-0-0) vs. Marcos Vinicius (1-0-0)

Preliminary Card

Felipe Arantes (2-1-1) vs. Edimilson Souza (0-0-0)

Ramiro Hernandez (0-0-0) vs. Lucas Martins (2-0-0)

Elias Silverio (0-0-0) vs. Joao Zeferino (1-0-0)

Ivan Jorge (0-0-0) vs. Keith Wisniewski (2-0-0)

Sean Spencer (1-0-0) vs. Yuri Villefort (0-2-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Yushin Okami $3.36 Okami is too good a veteran fighter and Jacare is still unproven at this level to have this type of disparity in the line. If Jacare can get the fight to the ground it is his world, but if not he will be far from the favourite.
2. Keith Wisniewski $2.96 Keith takes a big jump up compared to the confidence list. Mostly because 8, 9, & 10 are almost interchangeable as far as I am concerned. Jorge is debuting, on short notice, in a higher weight class, with limited to no experience at this level against a veteran desperate to keep his job. I’ll take the money and the vet.
3. Ramiro Hernandez $2.56 Like I said in the breakdown, Martins shouldn’t be this big a favourite over anyone at this level and cutting 2 divisions is a huge change.
4. Joao Zeferino $2.16 I like his grappling game to play a major role against a young, undefeated, untested, striking based opponent.
5. Sean Spencer $1.83 I liked Sean as the dog, but the line has moved. It could change again and let’s hope it does. Yuri hasn’t really impressed me in either fight and has looked sloppy. I’ll take the more technical striker to keep it standing and do enough to win.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Marcos Vinicius $2.92 Do not get me wrong, I do not see Marcos winning this fight under most scenarios. But the simple fact that he is a Brazilian fighting at home as the underdog might make this tempting. I posted a no play on this fight, but if you really feel the need to have some level of investment in this bout a small single bet on Marcos based purely on value would be the way to go.
2. T $3.26 I was close to taking Tor in this fight, but stuck with the more proven veteran fighter. At the same time I don’t feel like investing in Natal at such a low price, so again like the fighter above, if you want to be involved in this fight consider a small bet on Tor.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Felipe Arantes/

Marcos Vinicius/

Francisco Trinaldo to Win by Submission- Trinaldo has won his last 2 fights by submission and I expect he will be looking for the same opportunity here. Hallmann has never faced this level of grappling before and could be quite vulnerable when put on his back.

Joseph Benavidez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- I see this fight playing out similar to the Dodson/Formiga and Benavidez/ Unyenoyama bouts with Formiga struggling to initiate his grappling attack and then getting floored after Joe cracks him with a few good shots.

Yushin Okami/

Glover Teixeira to Win by Submission- While a knockout is a real possibility, I can see a more likely scenario playing out with Glover scoring the knockdown and then swarming a stunned Bader for a RNC or Arm triangle choke. Additionally, Bader has not look that good off his back and has been submitted by both Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz. Tito seriously?