UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann 2: Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Facebook Prelims

155 lbs. – Roger Bowling (0-1 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (1-1 UFC) – No Contest

This was a back and forth fight that saw both fighters land takedowns and very hard punches and kicks. Bowling was getting the better of Trujillo in round 2 until Trujillo landed an illegal knee to Bowling’s face.

170 lbs. – Zak Cummings (0-0 UFC) vs. Ben Alloway (1-1 UFC) – Cummings via submission

Alloway tried to keep this fight standing where he could use his striking, but Cummings pressed forward looking for takedowns and once on the ground he worked quickly looking to lock in a submission.

Fox Sports Prelims

170 lbs. – James Head (2-2 UFC) vs. Jason High (0-2 UFC) – High via submission

Head was never able to land any strikes and instead decided to grapple with High. That decision would prove to be costly as High was quickly able to secure a Guillotine choke from top control in round 1.

145 lbs. – Darren Elkins (6-2 UFC) vs. Hatsu Hioki (2-2 UFC) – Elkins via U. decision

Hioki was able to put Elkins in some bad spots by hurting him with a body punch and gaining dominant positions on the ground, but Elkins used his boxing and wrestling to earn the decision victory.

170 lbs. – Justin Edwards (2-2 UFC) vs. Brandon Thatch (0-0 UFC) – Thatch via TKO

Once the striking exchanges started it was clear that the punches, kicks and knees of Thatch were much too powerful for Edwards and it resulted in Thatch getting the 1st round TKO finish.

185 lbs. – Dylan Andrews (1-0 UFC) vs. Papy Abedi (1-2 UFC) – Andrews via TKO

Abedi controlled the entire fight with trip takedowns, hard leg kicks and punches, but Andrews was never phased and once Abedi let his guard down Andrews unloaded with punches to get the finish.

Main Card

185 lbs. – Brad Tavares (5-1 UFC) vs. Robert McDaniel (1-0 UFC) – Tavares via U. decision

Tavares out classed McDaniel’s in the first two rounds with his powerful striking and wrestling, but McDaniel’s proved he can fight by coming back in the 3rd round and almost finished Tavares.

135 lbs. – Takeya Mizugaki (4-2 UFC) vs. Erik Perez (3-0 UFC) – Mizugaki via S. decision

Perez showed his finishing ability by landing a multitude of hard punches and knees, but Mizugaki clearly wasn’t fazed at all and answered with his own power punches that hurt Perez throughout the fight.

170 lbs. – Court McGee (4-2 UFC) vs. Robert Whittaker (2-0 UFC) – McGee via S. decision

Whittaker made this a very close fight with his left hooks and elbows, but McGee was also able to land very nice power punches while also landing more takedowns to earn the split decision.

170 lbs. – Kelvin Gastelum (1-0 UFC) vs.               Brian Melancon (1-0 UFC) – Gastelum via submission

Gastelum worked hard for a takedown, but Melancon defended very well until Gastelum changed his attack and dropped Melancon with a flurry of punches then locked in the rear naked choke in round 1.

155 lbs. – Donald Cerrone (7-2 UFC) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (8-4 UFC) – Dos Anjos via U. decision

Dos Anjos controlled the striking with his power punches and hard kicks to the legs and body of Cerrone. Dos Anjos even controlled the ground game by getting takedowns and landing ground and pound.

170 lbs. – Carlos Condit (5-3 UFC) vs. Martin Kampmann (11-5 UFC) – Condit via TKO

Kampmann had his moments in this fight with knees, punches and takedowns, but Condit turned it up in the championship rounds and put away Kampmann with a flurry of punches and knees in the 4th round.

 

 

UFC Fight Night 27

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Court McGee $2.28
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Price: $2.28 x Bet: $125
Payout: $285
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Darren Elkins $2.41
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Price: $2.41 x Bet: $75
Payout: $180.75
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $1.74 x Bet: $100
Payout: $174
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $1.74 x Bet: $50
Payout: $87
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: James Head $2.00
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $3.30 x Bet: 50
Payout: $165
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Carlos Condit $1.50
Selection 2: Donald Cerrone $1.65
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $4.08 x Bet: $100
Payout: $408

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Court McGee $2.28
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.65
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Price: $6.55 x Bet: $75
Payout: $491.25
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Darren Elkins $2.41
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $3.98 x Bet: $35
Payout: $139.30
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.65
Selection 4: Carlos Condit $1.50
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Price: $7.11 x Bet: $40
Payout: $284.40
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: James Head $2.00
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Carlos Condit $1.50
===================================================
Price: $13.26 x Bet: $25
Payout: $331.50
 
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: James Head $2.00
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Court McGee $2.28
Selection 5: Darren Elkins $2.41
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Price: $19.12 x Bet: $25
Payout: $478
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Court McGee $2.28
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.65
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Carlos Condit $1.50
===================================================
Price: $9.31 x Bet: $20
Payout: $186.21
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: James Head $2.00
Selection 3: Darren Elkins $2.41
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $12.92 x Bet: $15
Payout: $193.80
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.65
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Carlos Condit $1.50
===================================================
Price: $7.11 x Bet: $15
Payout: $106.59
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

***With 3 events in only 10 days the breakdowns for each fight will be shorter and much more to the point, but I put the same thought into them as I do the longer breakdowns.

Roger Bowling $1.80 vs

This line is a little all over the place with both guys sitting as the fav depending on what site you are looking at. Again I talked about this last time with the Vick/ Nijem fight. Now, including that event, underdogs are 9-9 in the opening 2 fights of the last 9 events. There is a lot less information about guys kicking off the events and that makes it harder to set the line properly (James Vick was my #1 play). Bowling and Trujillo are known fighters, but looking at Trujillo he has bee both dominant and dominated in his 2 UFC fights and Bowling has a tonne of talent but often comes up short. Additionally, this is his 2nd fight at LW adding to the unknown. I that Abel as the speed and aggression to push Bowling and break his cardio down. He also has the power to check Roger’s chin, even more so if he gasses. I think he is a mid-sized single bet for this fight, considering some sites have him as the favourite if you can get him as the dog then you are getting a little added value and could bump up your investment a little. There are a number of solid dogs and decent paying favs on this card so spread out the parlay plays.

Ben Alloway $2.05 vs

This type of movement for this fight was totally unexpected. I just copy and paste the lines from the Public Picks section and then update them from another site and was totally blown away by the jump. I felt they were right on the money with Cummings when the line opened, but now they I just don’t get it. My first thought was to go looking for sign of an bad camp report or an injury possibility or anything that would take away from Zak and I can’t find anything. Cumming is a straight up wrestler and finisher and Alloway has major trouble with it. I think at this line, Cummings has to be inconsideration for my #1 play of the night, he might not quite make it there though because of the cut to WW being a concern, but he is still worth a look for a single bet and inclusion on the parlays.

James Head $2.00 vs

The line opened even and is now moving to High as the favourite. I understand the reasoning, Head has had trouble with grapplers and High is just that. I think Head as the ability to keep this fight standing or at the least do enough damage while it is standing to get the win. High has a decent number of wins and his debut was not a clear indication of his capabilities, but I just don’t think he has what it takes to beat a significantly bigger opponent like Head who has a good sprawl. For me I would advocate for a mid-range bet on Head. The grappling prevents me from going too hard, along with the fact that I think there are a couple other dogs that pay better and have a better shot to win. At the same time, Head is a solid contributor to your parlays, adding some nice pop to your bottom line. Don’t be shocked if this moves before the fight starts though, possible back to even for Head to the favourite.

Darren Elkins $2.41 vs

I was kind of surprise that this line opened like it did and has move a little close together which makes sense. Hioki has a tonne of hype surrounding him when he came to the UFC, but some of the shin has warn off. He is a talented fighter with decent striking and a dangerous ground game. Elkins is a tough, grinding wrestler that might not be exciting but he is good at it and makes it hard for his opponents to overcome. Hioki has lost 2 straight fights against American wrestlers, and while he did have success attacking them off his back, the bottom line is he lost. Elkins is effective because he keeps things simple and grinds guys down, doesn’t try anything fancy, just grinds. Another factor to consider is that he is almost he same size and length/ height as Hioki. Lamas and Guida had to deal with Hioki long limbs tying them up and threatening with submission. Elkins should have more success dealing with this because he will be able to match him physically. There is also the issues of the East to West travel, I have a friend who works in Korea and he says it takes a good week to normalize yourself when he comes home based on the time change and all he is doing is day to day activity not training and fighting. Hioki is 1-2 in the UFC state side and his only win was a close split decision vs George Roop that could have gone either way. Elkins style is perfect to expose jet lag or some other physical ailment and I expect him to be wearing out Hioki round to round. I think a large single bet on Elkins is a good play, but don’t wait he is dropping. A parlay with McGee works and if you want to go bigger think about Cerrone and Perez.

Justin Edwards $2.56 vs

This is a debut fight for a guy that is becoming a heavier and heavier favourite, which makes Thatch unappealing. If he hovers around the $1.50 mark then consider a bet, but he seems to be trending towards the low $1.40s which isn’t bad but isn’t great. My suggestion here is using has part of a bigger parlay where you are throwing down small money and trying to hit that big home run. If you are focussing more on a big bet, big return, limited risk- leave him out. Edwards doesn’t get the credit he deserves for the tough test he is for most fighters and he has the style to get a debuting guy with the potential for Octagon shock off his game. Thatch is a bright prospect, but I want to see him beat someone at this level before I start laying money on him with this heavy a line.

Papy Abedi $2.97 vs

This line is moving farther apart, with Andrews becoming a bigger favourite and touching the mid to low $1.30 range. I think Andrew wins this fight by defending TDs, exhausting, and then finish Abedi. I don’t think he is a great bet for a guy making his first post-TUF fight as such a heavy favourite. I think that laying off this fight, unless he rebounds in the value category, is the best play. If Abedi can score some early TDs and hold the position he could take the first 2 rounds and then hang on for dear life. The smart play here for me is the total rounds under. Andrews has finishing power and Abedi hasn’t made it out of the first round in 2 of his 3 fights. Check back with the props later.

Takeya Mizugaki $2.26 vs

These odds are moving in the right direction for Erik Perez. His value has jumped from moderate to good. I have scenarios where both guys win this fight, but I think that Perez has the better chance to take it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear a split decision as Takeya is involved in a lot of close fights. That is part of my reasoning here as in a close fight the more aggressive and diverse fighter has an edge and that is Perez here. I like a single bet on Perez or as I already talked about with a couple of the other decent paying favs doubling him up. He is a solid addition to the parlays as well and with him, Cerrrone, and McGee you have a solid paying parlay with limited risk. There is also a prop bet I am looking at, but I have decided on yet. I like the Over 2.5 rounds, even with Perez being such a finisher. Mizugaki is a solid vet that is hard to put away and if he does get the upper hand here he will probably push it to decision. Watch the props section.

Robert McDaniel $4.36 vs

Not much I can say here. Tavares should win this fight barring McDaniel not getting an early takedown and moving into a dominant position for a sub attempt. I actually think that this is a step down from Brad after facing much better fighters in Riki Fukuda and Tom Watson, but he offers so little in the value department that I will probably decline to use him on the bet card for much of anything. There is a parlay that I am looking at for this fight, but I need to see the value before I move on it. Check the prop section for that play.

Court McGee $2.28 vs

I honestly don’t understand this line. Whittaker is 2-0 in the UFC with a TUF final win and then a TUF next level Champion vs Champion victory over a guy with single digit pro fights in Colton Smith. Court is also a former TUF champ, but he has 6 UFC bouts with a 4-2 record that could easily be 5-1 had he been given the nod (as he should have been ) vs Nick Ring. For me I made the pick before the line was posted and I did a double take. I expected that it would change, but there hasn’t been a lot of fluctuation yet. I think that the combination of McGee’s size, cardio, pace, and wrestling, along with a competent striking game will be too much for Whittaker. There is the possibility that Whittaker can land a big shot and hurt Court, but he took some big blasts from a big hitter at 185, Costa Philippou, and didn’t go away so I don’t see it happening. Court slowed a little in his last fight, but that was his WW debut so he was still working out what he can do physically at 170 and I expect his second attempt to be better. Additionally, Josh Neer is a tough out for anyone and veteran fighter that McGee beat which is more of a credible win then anything that Whittaker has. I would say if you are betting more then $150 on this event total you need to make some kind of single bet on Court. The bigger the bankroll, the bigger the play. You could also consider doubling him up with any of the solid paying favourites on the card or even a triple bill with Condit and Cerrone for a nice payout with less money required on the table. I like this play and hope his value doesn’t fall too much.

Kelvin Gastelum $1.46 vs

This fight is either a no play or a small bet on Melancon, especially if he passed the $3.00 mark. Gastelum is relatively inexperienced, with no fights outside of the TUF tournament, he is making the cut to WW, and we are seeing more and more that his win over Uriah Hall isn’t that big of a deal after all. Throw in that he is facing a much different opponent then he originally signed on to face, Paulo Thiago, and that is just too many things to overlook. Melancon throws bombs and all it takes is one to get through and check the chin of Gastelum to send this fight into the upset column. These two will go at it and Kelvin has my backing, but not my money until he wins at least one fight truly in the UFC.

Donald Cerrone $1.65 vs

Honestly speaking, I think that RDA got a gift decision over Dunham. I picked him and when I see a fight going to the judges that I clearly felt my guy lost and then he wins like that, it is hard to believe otherwise. RDA is talented and has really made strides in his game. The pressure of fighting at home could have got to him, but I wasn’t impressed with how he responded to fighting at the next level. His striking has looked good against lesser competition- G-Sots, Bocek, and Shalrous. The only decent striker that he looked good against was Njokuani and the takedown threat played a huge role in making RDA more effective. Cerrone is another step up, fro Dunham. Maybe only a half step, but it is still up. Sometimes I question his mental state and striking defense, but when he is on (Stephens and Noons) he is on. I would actually like to see these odds get a little closer together, but I still think Cowboy us a good bet. He might find his way onto my single bet platform for the bigger gamblers (not all the odds are posted so I have to wait), but he certainly would make a nice 2 fighter parlay with Condit which sounds like a reasonable play. I also think that this fight as a good chance to got he distance so check the prop section to see if that play makes the cut.

Carlos Condit $1.50 vs

After watching the first fight and then a number of their fights after that it is apparent that Kampmann hasn’t change that much since then and he has much more mileage and damage on his body. Condit has gone through a number of wars as well but he has clearly improved and taking into consideration the 9 month layoff and high pressure of debuting as an incoming champion from another organization he will be much more comfortable this time around. Condit seems to feed off of the grueling battles and didn’t fade all that much against Hendricks or GSP, while Kampmann tends to slow down and breakdown far worse. I think Condit takes this fight under almost all scenarios, short of his iron clad chin getting cracked with a counter or Kampmann finding another level in his already pretty good (but not good enough to win this fight) wrestling game. If you are a big time bettor then a single play on Condit is a feasible move. If you are looking to make money without having to drop a tonne on just one fight then parlaying Condit with a couple of other fights on the card is probably the way to go.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Carlos Condit $1.50

2.

3.

4.

5. Donald Cerrone $1.65

====================

6. Court McGee $2.28

7. Kelvin Gastelum $1.46

8.

9.

10.

11. Darren Elkins $2.41

12. James Head $2.00


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: 50-29-0 63%

Best Prediction Record(s): Rafael dos Anjos (6-1-0), Brad Tavares (5-0-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Martin Kampmann (2-4-0)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Donald Cerrone vs. Rafael dos Anjos 12-5-0 71%

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann 5-6-0 45%

Main Card

Carlos Condit (3-2-0) vs. Martin Kampmann (2-4-0)

Donald Cerrone (6-4-0) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (6-1-0)

Kelvin Gastelum (0-1-0) vs. Brian Melancon (0-1-0)

Court McGee (4-1-0) vs. Robert Whittaker (0-2-0)

Robert McDaniel (0-1-0) vs. Brad Tavares (5-0-0)

Takeya Mizugaki (4-1-0) vs. Erik Perez (1-2-0)

Preliminary Card

Papy Abedi (2-1-0) vs. Dylan Andrews (1-0-0)

Justin Edwards (1-1-0) vs. Brandon Thatch (0-0-0)

Darren Elkins (5-1-0) vs. Hatsu Hioki (2-2-0)

James Head (2-1-0) vs. Jason High (1-1-0)

Ben Alloway (1-0-0) vs. Zak Cummings (0-0-0)

Roger Bowling (3-1-0) vs. Abel Trujillo (1-1-0)

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Court McGee $2.28 Whittaker has looked good in his 2 wins, but not good enough to be this big a fav or a fav at all vs a proven veteran fighter with the capabilities Court has. I’m not a huge Court fan, but think he is a great play here.
2. $1.74 I’ve been wrong before, plenty of times in fact, but this line just seems way off form what Cummings brings to the table vs what Alloway has in his arsenal.
3. $2.41 Decent value here, could be dropping a little, but still worth a strong play.
4. Abel Trujillo $1.90 Bowling usually slips up in these type of fights and Trujillo has the power and pace to break his chin and cardio.
5. James Head $2.00 Lots of option for the list with Perez and Cerrone paying well too, but Head gets the nod hovering around the $2 mark against and unproven fighter in the UFC (Perez and Cerrone are facing some pretty solid comp.)

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. No Plays
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Darren Elkins/

Papy Abedi/

Takeya Mizugaki/

Donald Cerrone/

Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.80- Building on the point above, I think Cerrone takes this on points and at $2.80 that is some great value- he does have knockout power but is more likely to do a tonne of damage without finishing and submitting a BJJ Black belt would be quite a chore.

Carlos Condit to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.45- Kampmann’s chin isn’t great and over 5 rounds Condit is going to put a tonne of damage on him. While Martin seems to fade in fights, Condit get’s stronger and is a proven finisher.