UFC FIGHT NIGHT 133: dos Santos vs Ivanov- Bet Pack Review


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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Junior Dos Santos $8700 
Fighter 2: Zak Ottow $7800 
Fighter 3: Said Nurmagomedov $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Randy Brown $8300 
Fighter 5: Myles Jury $7300  
Fighter 6: Alexander Volkanovski $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Eddie Wineland $7100 
Fighter 2: Kurt Holobaugh $8800  
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 

Blagoy Ivanov +160 vs Junior Dos Santos -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

JDS opened around -120, but he has seen his price steadily decline. That is a little concerning here, but honestly I haven’t been impressed by Ivanov. I see JDS putting together a similar performance to what he did against Rothwell. Landing and moving. Putting impactful strikes on Ivanov without opening himself up to taking some damge back his way. I think Ivanov coming in as a champion has started him at too tough a level. JDS has lost to the elite, but he has handled most of the rest of the division. The layoff was good. Gold play for the former Champion.

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JDS has 5 rounds to pile up offence or get the finish. His right hand is a bomb and with the height advantage, a head kick finish is also a possibility. Add him.

Sage Northcutt -140 vs Zak Ottow +130 

Northcutt is 0-2 at WW and has been submitted in both fights. Ottow has the skills to push that to 0-3. I feel like Northcutt has either regressed or is not improving to the point that he can put away better competition. He should have lost that last fight and as long as Ottow can get inside the distance he has the skills to replicate Northcutt last fight- devoid of the gift decision. Bronze play.

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With Ottow capable of winning this fight by submission and Northcutt’s previous grappling issues, backing Zak by sub here at a decent price is a solid investment. Add him.

Dennis Bermudez -190 vs Rick Glenn +175 

I went back and forth on this one. Glenn has some of the skills/attributes that Bermudez has struggled with. He is big, long, a capable striker, and a decent wrestler. I still went with Bermudez. He has the power and speed to win this fight. Glenn is hittable and even if Bermudez can’t finish him, he can still be the more impactful fighter. Bermudez’s value has hung around the same area which is fine by me considering he is a fighter that is on a losing streak- Silver Play.

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Glenn’s durability pushed me away here. No Play.

Chad Mendes -135 vs Myles Jury +185 

I’m fading Mendes based on his age, the layoff, and the size issue. Jury has the tools to continue Chad’s struggles. Based on the drop-off of the rest of the division elite from Chad’s time there is a legit chance that Mendes will experience something similar. But we could also assume that the layoff could have saved him from that- allowed him to recover physically. I just see too many issues going against him here and Jury is a solid manager of distance. This line is based on what used to be, not what is. Jury is a Gold play as a solid underdog bet.

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I do have Myles in my lineup. He is affordable and Mendes has been finished in 2 straight fights. If Myles can get his counter game working, he will have success landing with regularity and has a legit chance to stop him. His affordable price frees up cash to go elsewhere. Mix Eddie Wineland in to create some diversity in your lineup.

Cat Zingano +113 vs Marion Reneau -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is going to be a close fight and could really go either way. The ultimate deciding factor here was the number of takedowns that Reneau gives up and how consistently she does so. Between takedowns and damage Cat can do in the clinch, I think she should be able to eek out the decision in a tight fight. These factors could also lead to a fairly comfortable win for Cat as well. Her aggression is the key against a fighter that is known for getting off to slow starts. Cat is a borderline play. With so many playable lines here Cat is either a low Silver play or a high Bronze play for me.

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Reneau is double tough. I stayed away.

Alejandro Perez -165 vs Eddie Wineland +160 

This is a fight where we are looking at 1 of 2 scenarios. Either we see Perez continue to win fights based on his opponents underachieving and Wineland not pulling the trigger or we see Wineland fight to his capabilities and Perez’s luck run out. Wineland has the power to stop Perez and his awkward style is going to make it difficult for the counter based and at times linear striking of Alejandro to land with consistency. Wineland needs to show up and if he does, he wins- but it is a Bronze play for me.

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Eddie is a spare. He is affordable and constant threat to finish, especially against a hittable fighter like Perez. Mix him in place of Jury.

Alex Volkanovski -245 vs Darren Elkins +250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I gave Elkins a long hard look here. I had him over Bermudez and I had him over Johnson. I don’t have him here. A style that revolves around getting beaten up by a superior fighter until that fighter fades is eventually going to catch up to him. Volkanovski hits hard and is the far superior athlete. We have seen similarly based fighters beat the breaks off of Elkins (Bektic, Mendes, and Johnson in round 1) 2 faded and 1 put him away. I don’t see AV fading here. Gold play for Volkanovski.

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We can look at this in 1 of 2 ways. Either Volkanovski stops him or he piles up an unreal amount of points with strikes landed. Maybe a combo of both. Our penny-pinching ways allow us to make this type of big buy. Add him.

Justin Scoggins +120 vs Said Nurmagomedov -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Scoggins is a very good fighter that routinely gives fights away that he should win or is winning. Now he is facing an opponent that I think has the tools to straight up beat him. That being said, Nurmy 3.0 is debuting and that pushes him way down the ranks of bettable options. Why a card like this he either gets the nod in the Bronze section or it is a pass. Give Said a Live Bet look if Scoggins wins round 1 and the value on the Russian shoots way up- Tank tends to fold after starting strong.

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Scoggins has been finished in 3 of his 4 pro defeats and Nurmagomedov has the tools to continue that trend. I picked Said by decision, but even if he can’t get the fight to end early- he knows how to stay busy.

Niko Price +110 vs Randy Brown -120 

Price has to exploit Brown’s grappling/wrestling defence. That being said, I feel like that is a window that is closing. I never like backing a fighter that needs to step out of his comfort zone to win a fight. That is the case here. Niko just gets hit way too much and Brown can do damage. I like Brown in my Silver section.

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Brown can finish and his aggressive striking attack against Niko’s questionable defence makes for multiple point scoring avenues. A stoppage, above average volume, or a little of both could produce for us here.

Kurt Holobaugh -170 vs Raoni Barcelos +160 

Holobaugh is returning, but his last run was very short and quite a while ago. I am hearing a lot of people are liking Barcelos and honestly, I saw something I liked too. Holobaugh is huge, hits like a truck, likes to attack, and he has been more active. Barcelos relies a lot on counter strikes and there could be an issue with his timing after a long layoff. This should be a fun fight. It is either a fringe Bronze play or left on the cutting room floor for me.

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Holobaugh hits hard and will pile up the points with volume. I have him as a spare.

Jennifer Maia +117 vs Liz Carmouche -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Carmouche has to fight smart here or at least fight to her strengths. She doesn’t always do that. Clinch and take Maia down. Put her on the mat and keep here there. Maia is aggressive, but a bit of a slow starter and hittable. Similar to our main event, we see an outside champion making her debut at a higher level than most girls debut at. Carmouche is a Silver play.

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Nothing here.

Elias Garcia -135 vs Mark De La Rosa +127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t have a great read here and even with De La Rosa as the dog, I think this is an easy pass.

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Pass.

Jessica Aguilar +121 vs Jodie Esquibel -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I simply copy and pasted my prediction from the event that this fight was originally scheduled to go down on. It comes down to takedowns and top position. I think Aguilar can do it or else he could be out the door. Bronze Play.

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Nothing here. Most likely going the distance.

 

1. Alex Volkanovski -245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Junior Dos Santos -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Myles Jury +185 

4. Randy Brown -120 

5. Dennis Bermudez -190 

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6. Said Nurmagomedov -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Zak Ottow +130 

8. Liz Carmouche -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Cat Zingano +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Eddie Wineland +160 

11. Kurt Holobaugh -170 

12. Jessica Aguilar +121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Mark De La Rosa +127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Myles Jury +185 

2. Eddie Wineland +160 

3. Zak Ottow +130 

4. Cat Zingano +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jessica Aguilar +121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Cat Zingano to Win by Decision +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Cat can finish, but Marion is very tough and these 2 match up well. I like this fight to go the distance with a solid return on Zingano.

Alejandro Perez/Eddie Wineland

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Kurt Holobaugh/Raoni Barcelos Total Rounds Under 2.5 -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys hit hard and aren’t afraid to let their hands go. As long as the big stage does not impact their performance, I see someone getting the finish here.

Elias Garcia/Mark De La Rosa

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jessica Aguilar/Jodie Esquibel 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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