UFC FIGHT NIGHT 134: Shogun vs Smith- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Glover Teixeira $8600 
Fighter 2: Anthony Smith $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Vitor Miranda $7400 
Fighter 4: Bartosz Fabinski $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Manny Bermudez $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Justin Ledet $8300 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Anthony Smith -186 vs Mauricio Rua +190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are a lot of factors working in Smith’s favour, with the exception of the short notice. Shogun has 2 legit paths to victory here; spam takedowns or land counters and make Smith’s aggression work against him. I like how Smith works on the inside to grind Rua down and his ability to rally later in fights and finish opponents when they start to fade. Smith is hovering anywhere between -185 and -215, I like him in a Silver play.

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Smith is a finisher and over 5 rounds he should be able to put Shogun away, most likely inside the first 3 rounds. Shogun has benefited from opponents that have been too passive. That won’t be AS, he gets the finish.

Corey Anderson +143 vs Glover Teixeira -155 

I love the direction this line is going in. Yes, Anderson can win but he has to fight a near perfect fight. If Glover clips him he will be in trouble. Glover knows Corey is going to come out looking for takedowns and he has had success overcoming opponents who have done that before. I never expected to see Glover under -190, Gold play!

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With Glover’s striking and Anderson’s chin, the Brazilian is a must play. He is very affordable at $8600. Add him.

Abu Azaitar -189 vs Vitor Miranda +175 

Azaitar is a heavy hitter, but he is a little wild. I don’t see him having the type of wrestling that can really trouble Miranda and even if it does I expect him to slow down. In fact, his style of fighting fits the profile of fighters that Miranda usually beats. Guys that come out aggressive, start strong, fade and then get finished. There is a little bit of unknown with Azaitar and Miranda is slumping, but he is a solid dog. Bronze play.

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Miranda is cheap and he knows how to finish. Once Abu starts to fade, look for Miranda to close in for the win. Add him.

Marcin Tybura -225 vs Stefan Struve +211 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tybura has all the tools here to take this one home. Despite the loss, I was impressed with how he handled himself on the mat with Lewis and that is going to be key here. Struve will attack off his back, but unless he hits the sub, Tybura is going to end up on top. His clinch and takedown game will be key here as Struve doesn’t have the jab to back him off. Tybura will be he busier fighter. Gold Play.

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Tybura is too expensive for a fighter I expect to see go the distance. Pass.

Danny Roberts -283 vs David Zawada +300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here. Too many unknowns and Roberts has shown he can struggle when he shouldn’t. Not worth the price.

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Marc Diakiese -166 vs Nasrat Haqparast +153 

Diakiese is looking to rebound from a tough loss. Haqparast is capable, but unless Diakiese has a massive slowdown I don’t see where Nasrat gets him. I think we are getting a solid price on Diekiese here as the more proven talent. Back him as a Silver Play.

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I considered him here, but he is a little more expensive then I want to spend. Pass.

Damir Hadzovic +148 vs Nick Hein -160 

I took a long hard look at Hadzovic to win and that pushed me further towards Hein. I’m not saying that Damir can’t win, I just feel Hein is going to be more active with his strikes and exploit DH’s questionable TDD. He is fighting at home as well against a fighter that doesn’t have a great track record in decisions. I considered Hein for a Gold Play, but opted for a Silver bet instead.

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Hein is probably going the distance. Pass.

Bartosz Fabinski +140 vs Emil Meek -142 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Wow. It has to be the layoff that is getting us this type of value. I see no other reason that Fabinski is the dog here. He went up to MW and rag-dolled his opponent. He did it again at WW. Meek has brutal TDD and Fabinski is going to be all over him, as long as his cardio holds up. With dog money, Fabinski is my #1 Value Bet and a Gold Play! Smash him.

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He might not get the finish, but he is going to pick up between 6-10 takedowns and a decent striking total. He is very affordable. Add him.

Khalid Taha +231 vs Nad Narimani -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here, we have some solid plays and this is not one of them. Let’s look somewhere else.

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Nope.

Aleksandar Rakic +105 vs Justin Ledet -115 

I like Ledet, but his last performance left a lot to be desired. He needs to be a little more aggressive at LHW, but I think he offers the right combo of striking and ground game to exploit Rakic on the mat. It will be interesting to see Ledet trimmed down at LHW, it should improve his movement and cardio- which were already good. With the unknown of the cut, I like Ledet as a Bronze play.

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Ledet is reasonably affordable and should put up decent volume. I think the takedowns are there if he goes that route and a submission victory is not out of the question either. Add him.

Davey Grant +252 vs Manny Bermudez -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing doing here. A rescheduled fight with a long layoff and still green UFC fighter. Pass.

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I do have Bermudez in my lineup. He is a submission machine and Grant is just too willing to go to the floor. If Bermudez wins, he wins inside the distance.

Darko Stosic -250 vs Jeremy Kimball +230 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here. Kimball could shock us if Stosic falters. Pass.

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Nope, Stosic is too expensive for a new fighter.

Damian Stasiak -105 vs Pingyuan Liu +103 

Stasiak is the more proven fighter against better competition. He is a getting a decent price as well which makes him a solid addition to the Bronze play section. Add him.

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Nope.

1. Glover Teixeira -155 

2. Bartosz Fabinski +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Marcin Tybura -225 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Nick Hein -160 

5. Justin Ledet -115 

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6. Anthony Smith -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Manny Bermudez -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Marc Diakiese -166 

9. Danny Roberts -283 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Vitor Miranda +175 

11. Damian Stasiak -105 

12. Nad Narimani -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Darko Stosic -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Bartosz Fabinski +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Vitor Miranda +175 

3. Justin Ledet -115 

4. Damian Stasiak -105 

5.  Glover Teixeira -155 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

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Prop Bets

Glover Teixeira to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +150 

I did not expect to see this one paying as well as it does. Anderson has a not so good chin and Glover is pretty darn good at finding his opponent’s chin. Corey has been knocked out in 3 of his 4 defeats and dropped in his loss to Shogun. Unless he is able to smother Glover for the entire fight, he is going to have to risk trading with him. A solid play at plus money.

Abu Azaitar/Vitor Miranda Total Rounds Under 2.5 +125 

While this play is far from a sure bet, I like that we get 2.5 rounds at plus money. Azaitar throws hard and Miranda is dangerous if he is able to let his strikes go. I expect to see AA go through a bit of an adrenaline dump in this fight and Vitor will capitalize for the finish. Regardless, we keep both fighters’ finishing skills in play.

Marcin Tybura to Win by Decision +280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both fighters have recently been finished and have shown finishing skills, but if you look over a longer period of time you will see a sound justification for this play. Tybura has gone to round 3 or beyond in 6 of his last 8 fights including 3 decisions. His only first-round stoppage in that span was a loss due to injury. Struve has seen the 3rd frame in 5 of his last 9, also with 3 decisions and just 2 opening round stoppages. Tybura will utilize the clinch and top position control to grind this one for the full 15 minutes. It might not be exciting, but it will pay nicely.

Damir Hadzovic/Nick Hein 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Bartosz Fabinski to Win by Decision +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are already getting a solid return on BF to win straight up, but this is just too good to let go. He has been out of action for a while so I don’t expect him to come out trying anything new and fancy. Takedown, top position, control, win rounds. At this level, he is going to struggle to overwhelm opposition from to position. He might win against a guy with poor TDD like Meek, but he won’t stop him. Add it.

Just Ledet to Win by Decision +240 

Ledet has a very busy jab, but he seems to lack a bit of a killer instinct. I expect to see him come out a little cautious early, force Rakic to the outside and keep popping him. Takedowns should be a part of his approach as well to force his foe into a bad spot. The only real way he gets the finish here is via submission. I like him on the cards.

Manny Bermudez to Win by Submission +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Bermudez has won 8 of his 11 wins by submission, including his UFC debut. Grant has been submitted in all 3 of his pro losses, including 2 inside the Octagon. Grant seems too willing to go to the floor and that is where Bermudez wants him. The Brit gets lost in the Bermudez triangle.

Darko Stosic/Jeremy Kimball 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Damian Stasiak/Pingyuan Liu

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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