UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs Poirier- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Dustin Poirier $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier $8300 
Fighter 3: Ion Cutelaba $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Devin Powell $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Hakeem Dawodu $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Alexis Davis $7500 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Jordan Mein $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Dustin Ortiz $7200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Dustin Poirier -161 vs Eddie Alvarez +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A rematch of a great fight that needs a definative finish. It is going to be hard to live up to the first fight’s action, this guys are going to bring it. If you look over the last bout, Poirier was winning almost every exchange and when Alvarez went to his normal wrestling backup plan- it wasn’t there like it was against Pettis and Melendez. Poirier is younger and hungry, still hasn’t been to the top. Unless Eddie can catch him and stop him, this is Dustin’s fight to win. Whether DP gets the knockout or extends the success we saw over 5 rounds for a decision- this is his fight to win at a very solid price. Gold Play.

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Poirier makes the cut. He can finish. He can score with volume. He can finish with volume. There is all sorts of potential here. Add him.

Jeremy Stephens -115 vs Jose Aldo +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Where is Aldo mentally? I think he either beats Stephens or he beats himself here. If Aldo’s head is in it, his speed and quality of offence overcomes Stephens’ power. This fight is a 3-rounder which is huge for Jose who has had issues later in fights. The big issue for me is that Jose needs a win to get back on track. Those were some tough losses. He recovered from the McGregor loss versus Edgar, he does the same thing here. He opened around -135 and the public has moved him to the underdog. That is good for us. Aldo is a Silver play.

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Stephens isn’t easy to finish and Aldo might pick his spots to avoid getting tagged. This could effectively limit his output. So I will stay away from a Fantasy play.

Tecia Torres +265 vs Joanna Jedrzejcyk -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have seen JJ up over -300. She is in a similar position to Aldo, back to back losses to the divisions champion. The big difference is that she isn’t coming off a finish and looked good in her last fight. JJ’s range game is going to eat Torres up. She is quicker and has more to offer. Unless Torres can keep moving forward and clinching up, she is going to struggle to overcome everything JJ has to offer. JJ was close to -400 when she opened, getting her down in the -320 to -275 range is a solid play. Gold Bet for JJ.

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Torres is a tough out and while JJ can pile up the points with volume, she is costly at $9200. I will look elsewhere.

Alexander Hernandez +110 vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier -110 

I love when a standout and very short performance in one fight so greatly impacts the next fight in our favour. We don’t know a lot about Hernandez other than that he knocked out a top-ranked fighter with a non-top ranked chin. I see a quality decision victory or late finish as a better indicator of a fighter’s capabilities. OAM is rolling, improving his striking, and being built in a program that produced GSP. His ground game is very good and if his striking continues to improve, he is going to be a force. His strength on the mat against Hernandez will be the difference. OAM lock this one down in the clinch and on the floor. Gold Play.

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OAM can sore with takedowns and his submission game is very good. At $8300, he is a solid play here against a still unproven opponent. Add him.

Alex Morono +105 vs Jordan Mein -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Mein is talented. I have been a fan for a long time. He is also frustrating. He needs to work his combination striking and land at least 1 takedown per round. He is completely capable of dominating this fight on the feet if he is at his best, but the takedowns will certainly help his cause. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score a stoppage win here. He is fighting at home which is usually, not always, but usually a good thing. I expect to see him put together a strong performance. I want consecutive wins before he we go all out on him. Silver Play.

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If Mein comes in around 55-65 significant strikes and picks up between 2 and 4 takedowns with a decision win that is solid. He is capable of scoring a stoppage as well and Morono has been knocked out recently even if his record does not show it. I like him as a spare for $8200. Work him into the lineup to create some diversity.

Austin Arnett +335 vs Hakeem Dawodu -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing to look at here. I will look at the Prop options, but the line is simply not in our favour for this fight.

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I do have Dawodu in my Fantasy lineup. He is expensive, but he can finish and is fighting a very hittable opponent. Hakeem’s debut performance should not push you away from him here. I expect to see him get the finish inside 2 rounds. Add him.

Islam Makhachev -575 vs Kajan Johnson +505 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Johnson is solid and could shock us here, especially if he can stay vertical. That being said, I don’t feet that comfortable backing him as a Counter Bet or taking the heavy chalk on Mak. Better to just stay away.

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At $9600, it is hard to work Islam into your lineup without a bunch of solid dogs. It is doable, but there are better options. Pass.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov -105 vs Ion Cutelaba -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line is moving and most books now have Cutelaba as the favourite in the -105 to -120 range. That is fine with me, but if you hurry you might be able to get him at +110. Antigulov has a very good skill set and has looked good in a pair of short fights against fighters with issues in the same area that he is strongest. Fading a fighter that traditionally comes out aggressive and finishes his opponent quickly can be a profitable approach. Cutelaba has solid wrestling and is the bigger man here. He needs to stay vertical, shut down the single leg TDAs early and then take over with his striking. Cutelaba has to be careful early, he is a Bronze play for me.

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At $7600, Cutelaba is a solid play. He can finish, as he showed in his last fight and while he isn’t going to put up unreal amounts of volume over a longer fight- if Antigulov fades- Cutelaba can finish him. Add him.

John Makdessi -175 vs Ross Pearson +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Makdessi is coming closer to a -220 favourite with some books. If he gets above -220 I would stay way. If he can’t get the stoppage or hurt Pearson, this bout stands to be closer then it needs to be for that price. I have him in my Bronze section, but he is close to being a No Play.

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I will pass here. Makdessi could get a finish, but he is a little too expensive if this bout goes the distance.

Alexis Davis +135 vs Katlyn Chookagian -142 

We have a solid dog here in Davis. Chookagian has 2 main vulnerabilities. She can get stuck in the clinch and she can get stuck on her back. Davis is good in both spots. Davis isn’t an amazing takedown artist, but she is good at grabbing an opponents leg off a kick and dragging them down. Chook likes to throw kicks so I expect to see Davis capitalize. Once on the mat, this fight swings heavily in the favour of the Canadian. Even if put on her back, she is dangerous. Davis won’t make it pretty, but it will be effective. Davis is a Gold play.

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Davis is cheap and will score points on the mat with takedowns and advances. She will also give you a decent shot at locking up a submission win- watch for an armbar if she gets put on her back.

Dustin Ortiz +167 vs Matheus Nicolau -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ortiz is a grinder and the only guys that have legit beat him are elite fighters like Formiga, Reis, and Benavidez. His other losses were either close or a finish is a fight that he was winning. Nicolau is a good striker, but he needs space to be effective. Ortiz is going to get in, grind him along the cage and score takedowns. Nicolau hasn’t been tested like that just yet. Ortiz is a solid vet with good value. I like him in my Bronze section.

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Ortiz is very cheap and while he might not get the W, he is capable of grinding out a win with anywhere between 4 and 6 takedowns on the board. I have him as a spare.

Nina Ansaroff -129 vs Randa Markos +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I went back and forth on this one. If Markos can clinch and take Nina down, she can win this fight. Nina has good footwork and is the superior striker. She needs to keep out of Markos’ grasp to win this bout. Randa can be drawn into a striking battle and she has had fights where she lands takedowns, but can’t hold and can’t do enough on the feet to win the bout. I think this one is close. I like Ansaroff to keep her momentum going.  Bronze Play.

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Alvaro Herrera +102 vs Devin Powell -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a near pick’em fight. Powell has looked better in defeat. He is scrappy and can go deeper in a fight. Herrera is vulnerable on the mat and has a clear cardio issue. Powell has more avenues to victory. Bronze Play.

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Powell gets the nod on my team because Herrera doesn’t drop decisions, he gets finished inside the opening 2 round- more likely the first. Powell might get overlooked by some players- jump on him.

 

1. Joanna Jedrzejcyk -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Islam Makhachev -575 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Olivier Aubin-Mercier -110 

4. Alexis Davis +135 

5. Dustin Poirier -161 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Hakeem Dawodu -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Jose Aldo +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Jordan Mein -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Dustin Ortiz +167 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Nina Ansaroff -129 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. John Makdessi -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Ion Cutelaba -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Devin Powell -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Alexis Davis +135 

2. Olivier Aubin-Mercier -110 

3. Jose Aldo +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Dustin Ortiz +167 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jordan Mein -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Dustin Poirier/Eddie Alvarez 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Joanna Jedrzejcyk to Win by Decision -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

JJ can finish, we know that. She tends to pick up death by accumulation victories which is easier to do over 5 rounds when compared to just 3. I like her on the cards because Torres is a tough out who will hang in there from bell to bell. JJ lands more, but can’t stop her.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier to Win by Submission +300 

We have been down this road before and won. OAM is the type of fighter that makes his takedowns count. Once he gets you down he is going to hold that position and work towards a submission finish. His back mount is fantastic. Hernandez is a wrestler that won’t take well to be in a bad spot on the mat. OAM gets the tap most likely via RNC.

Alex Morono/Jordan Mein 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Hakeem Dawodu to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -110 

Dawodu is a killer and he is fighting an opponent that is very hittable. I like that combo. Let’s roll with it.

John Makdessi to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +475 

Makdessi is a capable striker and Pearson’s chin is way too iffy not to take a shot at this price line. We have seen Pearson knocked out or at the very least hurt on many occasions. Look for Makdessi to land his jab with regularity and if he can catch Pearson coming forward he could stop him. The spinning attacks and kicks could also lead to a finish.

Alexis Davis to Win by Decision +191 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Davis get a sub, but it would most likely need to come off her back and Chook should try to avoid landing takedowns at all costs. Davis wins this fight with clinch and top position control. it is not exciting, but it will be effective.

Dustin Ortiz to Win by Decision +235 

Ortiz does have a pair of stoppage wins in the UFC, but overall he has gone the distance in 13 of his 25 pro bouts. I like him to wrestling and control the BJJ Black belt on the mat without getting the finish. Solid return on the more established fighter.

Nina Ansaroff/Randa Markos 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Alvaro Herrera/Devin Powell 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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