UFC 227: Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: TJ Dillashaw $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Polyana Viana $8900 
Fighter 3: Matt Sayles $8300 
Fighter 4: Montel Jackson $7700 
Fighter 5: Kyung Ho Kang $7600 
Fighter 6: Thiago Santos $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Pedro Munhoz $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Weili Zhang $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Cody Garbrandt +110 vs TJ Dillashaw -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is going to be a close fight, even if it ends early. When compared to other bouts on this card; there are lines that are unplayable and fighters that we just don’t know enough about to invest big in. These are a pair of established fighters and they have already fought once. Most rematches that follow a quick finish tend to go the distance. That scenario favours the more diversified and slightly better conditioned Dillashaw. Cody is a boxer, TJ has more tools an is more willing to use them. That shows up huge here. Gold Play for the champ.

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TJ needs to be in your lineup. At $8200, he can finish, he can land big volume, and he can land takedowns. He also has 5 rounds to do it over. I expect this to be a different fight, but TJ still gets his hand raised. Add him.

Demetrious Johnson -430 vs Henry Cejudo +395 

Nope. Can’t touch this one. I actually expect to see Cejudo put up a much better fight here. As he rounds out his boxing, he is easily the greatest overall threat to DJ. An upset is not out of the question. There will be a rematch prop, maybe a Counter Bet, but nothing on DJ.

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Nope. DJ is too expensive for a fight I expect to see go the distance.

Cub Swanson +270 vs Renato Moicano -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is the type of fight that Cub usually drops. Moicano will most likely fight him either all the way out or all the way in. Range weapons like kicks and long straight punches and/or takedowns. Swanson isn’t nearly the same fighter when he is forced to reach for his offence and not just bang it out in tight. Moicano has more tools and fights smarter. Gold Play.

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Cub is a tough finish and I don’t expect to see Moicano trying to put him away. I will pass.

JJ Aldrich +135 vs Polyana Viana -130 

I really like this line. Viana’s level of competition is questionable, but the stylistic matchup is no. Aldrich has struggled with fighters that focus their attack on grappling and that is what Viana is going to do. JJ doesn’t have the power to back her up and that will allow PV to move forward and get her hands on her. From there she will start chaining submissions together until something sticks. I have seen Viana in the -130 to -165 range. It still works. Gold Play for the Brazilian.

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The Fantasy odds better reflect how this fight should be lined. Viana can finish and she can rack up points before that with her aggressive transition game. Add her.

Kevin Holland +310 vs Thiago Santos -325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope. This could get nuts. I will take a look at some prop action.

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Santos finishes when he wins. Holland is taking a big step up. If he falters or is not ready, he will get smashed. Add him.

Brett Johns +200 vs Pedro Munhoz -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Munoz between -200 and -230 is playable, as he drifts closer to -250 and beyond I would be a little less willing to engage. I see Munhoz winning this fight wherever it goes unless he opts to hold back on the feet. I don’t see that happening. Silver Bet. A look at the Prop options is also in the cards.

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I have Pedro as my only spare. He can finish and his volume is that bad. He will help you to diversify your lineup if you want to mix things up a little.

Montel Jackson -110 vs Ricky Simon +110 

Now we are getting into a couple of interesting fights with lesser known fighters but interesting odds. MJ varies from -110 to -130 and that is all good for me. Both guys are still figuring things out, but I simply was not that impressed by Simon in is debut. He fought against a wrestler and was getting eaten up on the feet. He drops that bout if not for that miracle finish. Jackson’s reach and power are the keys here. Bronze play.

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MJ is the dog which is create considering his ability to finish. He opens up some spending potential elsewhere and can certainly end this fight early if he pushes it. Add him.

Matt Sayles +105 vs Sheymon Moraes -110 

I went back and forth on this one. I like Sayles, even if he is shifting to the fav on most sites. He is simply more active and could add in some wrestling to his striking attack if needed. Moraes tends to fade if he is forced to grapple too much. I like that Sayles trains with Cruz, that will help him here. Still, he is new and Moraes is a lot better than most realize. Bronze Play.

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I have Sayles in my lineup. He will score with takedowns and strikes, but there is a legit chance he can finish this fight. He has power and Moraes tends to swing wide with his punches. That will open him up to counters. Add Sayles.

Alex Perez -135 vs Jose Torres +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Another pair of young and relatively new fighters with a close line. Perez is climbing here, but he is still is the play to make. Torres his hard, but he didn’t look that great against Brooks until he was handed the fight via the rare “own-KO”. Perez is going to pressure and take Torres down. Once Perez gets on top, that will start to take some of the bite out of Jose’s punches. If Brooks can disrupt the timing of Torres with his wrestling, so can Perez. I like Alex as a Silver play.

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Nothing here.

Kyung Ho Kang +195 vs Ricardo Ramos -211 

Ramos is dangerous but flawed. His early aggression creates openings in his attack that can be capitalized on. Later in the fight, once he starts to slow down and/or take damage his defence isn’t nearly as good. Tanaka needed to wrestle more and he could have edged that fight out. Kang will do just that. He is big and very strong for the division. He has a better top game and will shut Ramos down. Kang is a Silver play.

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Kang is affordable and he could potentially finish, especially if Ramos gets tired. More likely, we see Ricardo start to slow and Kang pick up points with takedowns and top position strikes. He is being overlooked here. Add him.

Danielle Taylor +240 vs Weili Zhang -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Zhang is either a Bronze or a No Play. Zhang has a finish heavy record and did it against decent regional competition. Taylor is frustrating and her lack of commitment to engaging could actually work in her favour here. With Zhang’s record, we will look at a prop bet as well.

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Zhang is an option who is going to fly under the radar and potentially score a finish. At $8700 add her to your spare list.

Marlon Vera -455 vs Wuliji Buren +410 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope. No play here. Vera wins it in most scenarios, but we are going to stay away from a straight up play. The EPU is def. in play though.

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Vera is just too expensive to consider a play on. Pass.

1. Marlon Vera -455 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2.  Polyana Viana -130 

3. Renato Moicano -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Demetrious Johnson -430 

5. TJ Dillashaw -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Thiago Santos -325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Pedro Munhoz -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Alex Perez -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Kyung Ho Kang +195 

10. Matt Sayles +105 

11. Montel Jackson -110 

12. Weili Zhang -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

1. Kyung Ho Kang +195 

2. Polyana Viana -130 

3. TJ Dillashaw -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Matt Sayles +105 

5. Montel Jackson -110 

1. Henry Cejudo +395 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med Cejudo is a good athlete, an elite level wrestler, and improving both in the cardio and striking capacities. That is key. If he can wrestling DJ early, that could open the door for him to scoop up the huge upset. He is worth a small play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Cody Garbrandt/TJ Dillashaw 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Demetrious Johnson/Henry Cejudo 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Renato Moicano to Win by Decision -145 

Moicano has gone the distance in 7 of his 12 pro wins, including each of his last 3 UFC wins. Swanson has only been finished in 1 of his last 6 fights and gone to the cards on the other 5. Renato will fight smart- utilizing leg kicks and distance strikes to keep Cub out of range. He will focus his entire attack on keeping a strong defensive front without opening up while looking for the finish.

Polyana Viana to Win by Submission +240 

I have seen this line as high as +280 which is really solid and then down in the +170 range- also still very playable. The combination of Viana’s aggressive grappling attack and JJ’s struggles on the mat make this a very playable option. Hit it.

Thiago Santos to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -175 

Not the flashiest of lines, but still worth a look if you want to get some money into this fight. Holland just looks to open when attack and this is a massive step up. He was getting cracked by a much shorter and far less diversified striker. If Santos can land his kicks, he can put him down. He has stopped 8 of his 9 UFC wins. Let’s get it.

Pedro Munhoz/Brett Johns 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Montel Jackson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +360 

I originally passed this one by, but Jackson has legit power and Simon is just too willing to engage. He got dropped in his last fight by a far less dangerous striker. Look for MJ to fire that counter knee to either the body or chin for the finish. The odds are too good for a guy that is a capable finisher, even if he was doing it against less competition.

Danielle Taylor/Weili Zhang 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Marlon Vera/Wuliji Buren 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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