UFC Fight Night 135: Gaethje vs Vick- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: James Vick $8600   
Fighter 2: Cortney Casey $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Rani Yahya $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Michael Johnson $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Markus Perez $8200 
Fighter 6: Deiveson Figueiredo $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Joanne Calderwood $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

James Vick -135 vs Justin Gaethje +125  

I have Vick in my Gold Play. His style is and ability to hit his opponents where they can’t touch him will play well against JG’s willingness to absorb damage. Gaethje gets hit way too much and the damage he has taken over the last 2 (even 3) fights is adding up. Vick’s chin is a concern, but he has come a long way since that first career loss.

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Vick also gets the call in my Fantasy lineup. He will have 5-rounds to pile up the points and stoppage after 100+ sig strikes is a legit option here. Add him.

Andre Fili -110 vs Michael Johnson +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a make or break fight for MJ and Fili tends to falter in big bouts. Johnson looked good, but got taken down by a good wrestler in Elkins. That won’t be the case here. Johnson is faster and hits harder. Fili lacks the late round push to overwhelm Johnson and he won’t be able to out grapple him. Look for MJ’s power to show up here. Silver play for Johnson.

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Johnson is a much bigger fantasy favourite then he is a betting a fav. I like that. Johnson still makes the cut as he has legit power and we have seen Fili rocked and finished on different occasions. Even if he doesn’t get the stoppage, Johnson’s volume is still good enough to make this count.

Angela Hill -125 vs Cortney Casey +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love Casey as the slight dog here. She has lost to elite opposition and had some very close fights doing so. Hill is simply too willing to exchange with a bigger more powerful girl and she lacks the wrestling to change gears. Even if they hit the mat, Casey is pretty crafty on the ground should be able to counter. Her value has dropped since her open, but I still think she is a solid play for a Silver pick.

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Casey is affordable and has shown she can finish. Even if she can’t get the stoppage, she has the skill to land 85+ strikes and score a couple of point-producing ground exchanges. Add her.

Bryan Barberena -400 vs Jake Ellenberger +370 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here. Ellenberger fighting at home in a potential retirement fight. Don’t take the chalk against that scenario.

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I looked at BB, but he is just too expensive for who else I want to pick. He probably gets the finish, but I can’t swing it.

Deiveson Figueiredo -150 vs John Moraga +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moraga has rebounded nicely, but it ends here. Figueiredo opened around -165, but has increased in value slightly all week. I feel a lot of bettors see value in the more known Moraga here. The difference is that DF will push Moraga back and unlike John’s recent opponents- the Brazilian will attack. Moraga doesn’t do well when under pressure. Gold Play for Deiveson.

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I’ve got Figueiredo in my fantasy lineup. He has the potential to finish and while his volume isn’t amazing- the price is right.

Eryk Anders -845 vs Tim Williams +800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope Pass. Prop bet is a potential, but the odds still won’t be great.

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Anders is getting the finish, but the price is out of our league for who we want to play.

James Krause +345 vs Warlley Alves -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t think Krause is getting enough respect here. I will pass.

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I could see Alves getting the finish, but in reality, this bout usually goes the distance and that result is not worth the price. Pass.

Cory Sandhagen -220 vs Iuri Alcantara +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Big test for the UFC sophomore. Alcantara is so dangerous and equally as frustrating. I will pass or at the very most play Sandhagen as a Bronze parlay leg. It is interesting to note that at least one site still has Cory as the underdog.

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Nothing here.

Andrew Sanchez -110 vs Markus Perez +105 

Does Sanchez’s cardio catch up to him here? I think so. Perez is solid on the mat and I like his striking to make Sanchez work hard for minimal success. The first round will be very competitive, but Perez will take it over and probably get a stoppage. Perez opened at -160 and has climbed in value since, that makes him a Silver play for me.

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At $8200 and fighting a fighter that has been finished in each of his last 2 fights, Perez is a perfect pick for out lineup. He gets the finish or he scores with solid volume. The wrestling of Sanchez could shut him out, but I need to see him do it for a solid 3 rounds without gassing before I am concerned.

George Sullivan +290 vs Mickey Gall -320 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Gall here, but he opened around -245 so the value is just not there. I will look at a prop bet instead.

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There is legit potential for Gall to get the finish, but he is too expensive to make it work.

Joanne Calderwood -165 vs Kalindra Faria +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Calderwood is back and in a division that suits her. The layoff is a concern, but I haven’t been that impressed with Faria. If Calderwood isn’t drained, she should be the more impactful and busier striker. Faria lacks the wrestling to trouble JoJo on the mat which is also a plus. Calderwood’s line has stayed pretty consistent- Gold Play.

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Calderwood makes the cut as a spare. She still fits in a budget and she can get the finish here.

Drew Dober -200 vs Jon Tuck +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tuck is talented, but he has a brutal gas tank. The layoff won’t help here either. Dober needs to get through round 1, but once Tuck slows down Dober will keep attacking and take the fight over. Dober’s value has dropped a little, but I think he still works in the Bronze section.

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This fight is probably going the distance. I will pass.

Luke Sanders +110 vs Rani Yahya -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yahya just can get no respect. He opened up around -214 and has been bet down all week. I love it. His grappling game is elite and few have had success stopping him. Sanders tends to fade a little and make mistakes which are 2 things you can’t do against Rani. The cardio of Yahya is a concern, but he is a solid bet. Silver Play.

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Whether it is via submission or a pile of takedowns and transitions, Yahya is going to score big points. Most people will overlook him here. Don’t! Add him.

 

1. Eryk Anders -845 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Bryan Barberena -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Mickey Gall -320 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. James Vick -135 

5. Deiveson Figueiredo -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Joanne Calderwood -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Rani Yahya -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Cortney Casey +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Michael Johnson +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Drew Dober -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Warlley Alves -345 

12. Markus Perez +105 

13. Cory Sandhagen -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Cortney Casey +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Michael Johnson +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Markus Perez +105 

4. Rani Yahya -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. James Vick -135 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

James Vick to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200 

Gaethje is a warrior, but his approach to fighting is working at this level. If MJ had been able to hold up, he could have stopped him too. Vick is huge for the division, hits hard, and throws with volume. Some sites have this line as high at +255. Jump on it.

Cortney Casey to Win by Decision +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Casey does have a couple of UFC finishes and has a poor track record on the cards, but I like how this fight lines up. Without the threat of the takedown, she is going to be able to bully her smaller opponent and land the more impactful offence. I like her on the cards here.

Bryan Barberena to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This could be Ellenberger’s final fight and he is at home. That could motivate him to get it done. I think if Barberena beats him he does it via stoppage. Jake’s durability is gone and Barberena will simply keep coming until he gets it done. It might be death by accumulation or it could be a big shot, but he gets the finish. I had hime closer to -190 to win by knockout. I like the value here.

Eryk Anders/Tim Williams Total Rounds Under 1.5 -155 

I expected to see this closer to -225 or above. Anders hits very hard and Williams’s chin and willingness to engage is going to get im in a lot of trouble. Unless this fight turns into a boring grind, Anders should fight that fight ending blow inside the first round or so.

James Krause/Warlley Alves 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Markus Perez to Win Inside the Distance +225 

Sanchez has gassed hard and his most recent loss to Janes is very concerning. Perez has the skills to get him out of there both on the feet and on the mat, especially if he tires. I like keeping both options in play here and we are getting a solid price.

Mickey Gall to Win by Submission -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

All of Gall’s wins have come by submission. All but 2 of Sullivan’s 6 defeats have come by submission. Sullivan gives up a lot of takedowns and when Gall gets the fight to the mat, he can finish. Do the math.

Drew Dober/Jon Tuck 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Luke Sanders/Rani Yahya 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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