UFC 228: Woodley vs Till- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Darren Till $8100 
Fighter 2: John Dodson $7800 
Fighter 3: Niko Price $7900 
Fighter 4: Jessica Andrade $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Zabit Magomedsharipov $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Diego Sanchez $7400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Charles Byrd $8900 
Fighter 2: Tatiana Suarez $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Alex White $8600
Fighter 4: Irene Aldana $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
 
 
 

Darren Till -125 vs Tyron Woodley +130 

Till made weight which was the first step to winning this fight. This was crucial because it allows him to remain in a confident, bordering on arrogant mindset. This allows him to push forward, not fear Woodley’s power, and keep the champ fighting off the cage. If Woodley can’t wrestle him he is going to fade under the pressure. Big test for Woodley, but I like him here to get it done against a fighter that has predominantly beat overhill or non-prime opponents. Silver play for the challenger.

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I’ve got Till in my lineup. He is very affordable. He can crack. And, he will have 5 rounds to score points. Solid options. Add him.

Jessica Andrade -385 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +390 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I won’t touch this one straight up. I will instead look for prop to cash in on.

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Andrade is a point scoring machine. She can finish with her hands or her grappling. She can score takedowns and she can put up massive volume numbers. She will cost you a pretty penny, but I love that play. Add her.

Zabit Magomedsharipov -1050 vs Brandon Davis +873 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope!

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Yes! Mags will dominate Davis on the mat with takedowns and transitions, leading either to a submission finish or hefty volume based score.  We are playing a couple of dogs so we can afford this one. Add him.

Jimmie Rivera -137 vs John Dodson +130 

I seriously went back and forth on this one. Most are taking Rivera and I get it. There are all sorts of reasons to back him. Dodson is declining a bit, but I think he has the skills to avoid getting drawn into the pocket and land with power. Rivera’s reliance on TDs in close fights is a bit of a concern against Dodson stout TDD. Even if Dodson can’t take him out he can outpoint him and stay vertical. Expect a close fight, possibly a split. Silver play.

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I’ve got Dodson in the lineup. At $7800, he is very affordable and he has power. He isn’t going to top the century mark in strikes, but he could come close in a decision against a fighter that likes to push forward.

Abdul Razak Alhassan -120 vs Niko Price +120 

I love Price here. ARA is getting the nod as the favourite because he is the flashy fighter. Price has more tools and knows how to use them. I am not saying he can’t get knocked out, but the window starts to close on ARA pretty quick. Look for Niko to land TDs and kee Alhassan there, either exhausting him or snatching a sub. Gold Play!

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Price is a solid play at $7900. He can score takedowns, he can finish, and he can pile up points against a tiring ARA. I like diversity in scoring potential. Niko has it. Add him.

Carla Esparza +400 vs Tatiana Suarez -450 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Carla is getting overlooked here. I still think she losses, but I don’t think it will be as definitive as this line indicates. We can make some cash with a prop bet here, but not on Tatiana straight up. Pass.

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Suarez is a spare. She is expensive but similar to other fighters she has a lot of options. Her volume will be solid, especially if she can pile up the takedowns. A finish, probably by sub, is also a potential. Use her for diversity in place of Mags or Andrade.

Aljamain Sterling -137 vs Cody Stamann +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love Sterling here. Even on some books where he is -145 to -155, he is still worth it. Caraway laid out the blueprint but lacked the cardio and physical gifts to carry it out all the way. Sterling is still improving and will show it here. Short of Stamann dominating him on the mat, this is Aljamain’s fight to win. Gold Play!

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I will pass here. Sterling is going to use the clinch a lot in this fight and that could limit his scoring potential.

Geoff Neal -181 vs Frank Camacho +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Camacho is a flawed fighter. His poor cardio supercedes his skills and he hasn’t shown he can finish at the UFC level. That is a problem. Neal isn’t a tried and true UFC vet just yet, but opening around -230 and coming down to the -180 range is nice value for us. Neal is a solid play here for your middle of the road bets. Solid Silver play.

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Camacho tires, but he is durable. Pass.

Charles Byrd -170 vs Darren Stewart +175 

Stewart looked better in his last fight, but he was fighting a fairly limited foe. Byrd’s reliance on wrestling and pace are a perfect foil for what Stewart brings to the table. Byrd is over -200 on some sites. Shop around and jump on his at anything below -190. Bronze play.

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Byrd is a spare. He could finish and he could land a number of takedowns- possibly both. Use him to diversify your lineups.

Diego Sanchez +180 vs Craig White -202 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I picked Diego over Held and see this fight playing our similar. White has a better chance than Held did of knocking out Diego, but I feel like Sanchez can grind this one out. People might be overlooking that fact that White has been finished on 7 occasions as well with limited success beyond the first round. I like the dog money here. Bronze play.

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Diego is cheap and with White’s history Sanchez could certainly get the finish or score takedowns and grind out a decision. His affordability allows is to buy the big guns. Add him.

Jim Miller +130 vs Alex White -140 

Miller is near the end and similar to Jake Ellenberger, he came so close but couldn’t get that elusive title shot. White is younger, big, faster, and while he still is a developing fighter with holes- he wins this fight in most scenarios. If Miller was still showing his wrestling from a little while ago, it might be a different story. White opened around -110 and has steadily lost value. That pushes me away from a Silver play. He is in the Bronze section for me.

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White is a spare simply because Miller’s diminishing durability makes him a legit candidate to get finished.

Irene Aldana -109 vs Lucie Pudilova +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Aldana is getting the call to the Gold section. I like Pudilova, but she is just too willing to eat strikes and Aldana hits way too hard for that. Pudilova’s key here is volume, but in doing so she opens herself up to taking damage. If Pudilova had a better takedown game I could see her being a solid play, but she doesn’t. Gold Play.

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Aldana is a spare. I like the way she strikes and her history of finishing opponents in the first round says she can get back to that. Her volume could be key here. Use her to mix things up.

Jarred Brooks -200 vs Roberto Sanchez +330 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Brooks on short notice at -200 isn’t worth the risk.

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Pass.

 

1. Zabit Magomedsharipov -1050 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Tatiana Suarez -450 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Jessica Andrade -385 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Aljamain Sterling -137 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Irene Aldana -109 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Niko Price +120 

7. Geoff Neal -181 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Darren Till -125 

9. Jarred Brooks -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. John Dodson +130 

11. Alex White -140 

12. Charles Byrd -170 

13. Diego Sanchez +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Niko Price +120 

2. John Dodson +130 

3. Aljamain Sterling -137 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Irene Aldana -109 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Diego Sanchez +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Roberto Sanchez +330 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

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Prop Bets

 

Jessica Andrade to Win by Decision -129 

Most will be leaning towards a submission finish based on how quickly Gadelha blew through KK. I expect to see Andrade using a lot of forward pressure, takedowns, and volume to win this fight with KK surviving to the final bell. Andrade has gone to the bell in 4-straight. I think she makes it 5.

Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win by Decision +172 

Mags is a massive favourite, so if we can figure out his best bet for victory- that is where we cash in. He has looked good subbing his first two opponents, but Bochniak showed you can go the distance with Zabit and survive. Davis is feisty and while he gives up a lot of takedowns, I think he will make Mags work for them and keep working once they hit the floor. Mags has seen a steady increase in fight time with a 2nd round sub, very late 3rd round sub, and his first decision win since 2013. That trend continues here.

Carla Esparza/Tatiana Suarez 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Geoff Neal to Win by Decision +265 

Camacho has been finished, he could get finished again, but there is value here. He is pretty darn durable and while he will slow down, he tends to stick around. Neal does hit pretty hard and has a finish heavy record but that tends to change when you hit the UFC level. At +265, this is definitely worth a shot.

Irene Aldana/Lucie Pudilova 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Jarred Brooks/Roberto Sanchez

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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