UFC Fight Night 136: Hunt vs Oliynyk- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Mark Hunt $8600 
Fighter 2: Nikita Krylov $8200 
Fighter 3: Andrei Arlovski $7900 
Fighter 4: CB Dollaway $7800 
Fighter 5: Petr Yan $9600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Terrion Ware $7000 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
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Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Aleksei Oleinik +140 vs Mark Hunt -125 

There are only a couple of bettable main card fights and this is one of them. Hunt opened around the -215 mark and has been bet down by the public. He appears to be still rising in value, consider adding another bet as he closes on the -120 mark. I am expecting that people are looking at one of 2 scenarios; they see him as a striker facing a very capable submission fighter and/or they are weighing the impact of Mark going to Russia. Hunt has been around for a long time and is well-travelled. I don’t see the environment being much of a factor and struggle to see this bout going a full 5, removing the judges from the equation. Oleinik isn’t the hulking wrestler that has had success taking Hunt down. His willingness to come forward is going to put him in Mark’s striking range. Hunt’s patient approach keeps him out of trouble until he finishes him with his hands. Hunt is a Gold Play.

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With so many big favourites we need to cash in here. Hunt is affordable and a capable finisher. Over 5 or less rounds he will pile up the damage until Aleksei drops. Add him.

Jan Blachowicz +115 vs Nikita Krylov -125 

This is going to be a top-heavy card. There is a scenario that would potentially push me towards a Silver play here, but all things considered, Krylov is the play here for my top bets. Krylov’s value has dropped a bit, opening around the -110 range and going as low as -150 on some sites. Shop around for a good price. Krylov carries a very steady pace and has shown he can do it for at least 2 rounds. Even if he doesn’t get the finish early, he should be ahead on the cards if he starts to slow down. Blachowicz doesn’t have the volume to match him and his gas tank isn’t great when he is pushed. There is still the potential that Jan survives and gets a late finish, but it’s a lower percentage one. Gold play for the returning Krylov.

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While there might be some value in play Krylov by decision, he is only going to cost you $8200. That is very affordable for a fighter that has finished all of his bouts and done so inside the first 2 rounds. That is good enough for me.

Andrei Arlovski +135 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov -140 

Another key fight, but it takes a back seat to the first two on the list. AA has shown he can still win at this level. Potentially more important is the value we are getting here. He opened at -215 on some books and has steadily climbed in value, serving as the dog in most books. A big contributor to the climb is Shamil’s brutal knockout of Sherman and AA 10 losses by KO or TKO. Prior to stopping Sherman, SA’s last knockout win came back in 2011 over a fighter with just 8 pro fights and who hasn’t fought since. That is 8 fights between knockouts. AA has been knocked out 3-times in his last 16 fights- by the former Champion and 2 recent title challengers with a combined 41 knockout wins. AA is the more diverse fighter and should find success as the more active striker to go along with the clinch and top control on the mat. AA is my top Silver Bet.

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AA should be able to score some decent points as the underdog, even without a finish. His volume is decent, but it will be his takedowns that help clinch it. SA has been stopped twice on the mat when his opponents were able to overwhelm him with strikes. He seems out of his element on his back and AA could follow suit.

Alexey Kuchenko -475 vs Thiago Alves +420 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A debuting fighter, albeit very experienced, against a battle-tested, but fading veteran. Like many fights on this card, the better value might be in the prop section. Alves did open around +175 which means he has climbed in value and might be worth a look as a counter bet. For now, I will pass on m picked fighter.

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Nothing here.

CB Dollaway +150 vs Khalid Murtazaliev -160 

Dollaway is on the climb here and that is understandable. He is a bit chinny and Murtazaliev is a killer. Murtazaliev is coming in on very short notice and is known for fading when he can’t get the job done early. Dollaway needs to keep busy as Khalid is way too tentative between throwing bombs. If CB can establish his wrestling, it will take Khalid’s power right out of the equation. I like CB to fight smart here. Dollaway is a Silver play.

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At $7800, Dollaway is another player that we need to include to free up cash for a big purchase. CB could score a top position stoppage if Khalid fades, but a solid 3-5 takedown performance and 50-70 significant strikes will do the trick here.

Jin Soo Son +650 vs Petr Yan -825 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Adding to the list of No plays is Yan. Not worth a look, maybe we will take a shot at the prop options.

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I do have Yan in my Fantasy lineup. He hits hard and Son is will to trade. That won’t go well. Cash in.

Kajan Johnson +575 vs Rustam Khabilov -653 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Johnson has a history of going on the road and pulling off upsets. He is 3-0 fighting on the Road in the UFC and 1-2 at home. Combine those stats with Khabilov’s past issues with inactivity and this fight is an easy pass. Khabilov on the cards is a much more tempting bet and will probably be a key lower half option.

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Khabilov has been a decision machine and while KJ has been finished on multiple occasions, the price isn’t worth the punch. Pass.

Desmond Green +420 vs Mairbek Taisumov -475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Taisumov missed weight, but it is well documented that fighters that have missed weight in recent bouts tend to win. He missed by a lot so I am assuming he stopped his cut in plenty of time and didn’t push himself too much. Green’s situation is equally, if not more distracting. All things considered, I will most likely avoid either man straight up. Check the props for a better option.

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Taisumov is a killer, but I will pass here. It will all make sense in the prop section.

Magomed Ankalaev -400 vs Marcin Prachnio +362 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A pair of UFC Sophomores going at it here and another massive price gap. Stay away.

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Magomed Ankalaev at $9100 is a solid play and can be used off the bench to replace Yan and give yourself a little diversity in a secondary lineup. Honestly, I would back them interchangeably.

Adam Yandiev +230 vs Jordan Johnson -247 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Johnson is coming down a division and coming in on short notice, but Yandiev is debuting and returning after a long layoff. His record also has some shady dealings lingering around it. I like what Johnson offers, especially if he can get out of the first round. This price is ranging between -245 and -270 depending on your book. I like Johnson here to grind this one out and bring his size and wrestling to bear, distancing himself in rounds 2 and 3. Gold Play for Johnson to be combined with either Hunt or Krylov.

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Johnson is a grinder and while he is a decent price, I can’t afford him with the other big play on the card. I would rather spend more on a more capable finisher and then take a shot on a counter play in the #6 spot.

Ramazan Emeev -550 vs Stean Sekulic +475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope, next!

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I will pass there too.

Merab Dvalishivili -500 vs Terrion Ware +335 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I gave Ware a solid look here. Dvalishvili really hasn’t done much to warrant a being such a massive favourite. The style matchup does favour him, but Ware has looked as good as you can look when going 0-3. I will consider a small play on Ware and maybe a prop bet on Merab.

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Ware is my #6 play. He is cheap and if he can stay vertical, this fight is much closer than the line suggest. Add him.

 

1. Mark Hunt -125 

2. Rustam Khabilov -653 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Petr Yan -825 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Nikita Krylov -125 

5. Alexey Kuchenko -475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Mairbek Taisumov -475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Jordan Johnson -247 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Andrei Arlovski +135 

9. Magomed Ankalaev -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Merab Dvalishivili -500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Ramazan Emeev -550 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. CB Dollaway +150 

1. Andrei Arlovski +135 

2. CB Dollaway +150 

3. Mark Hunt -125 

4. Nikita Krylov -125 

5. Mairbek Taisumov to Win by Decision +210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Terrion Ware +335 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Nikita Krylov to Win by Decision +370 

Krylov has never gone the distance in his career. He has only gone 3 rounds once in his carer, but his fight time is stretching out. He has gone into the 2nd round in 4 of his last 7 fights and is coming off the 2nd longest fight of his career. Jan is pretty durable and while he can slow down, he hangs around. Krylov is a capable finisher, but at this price, we need to take a shot.

Andrei Arlovski to Win by Decision +200 

We already have AA at a pretty solid price already, but let’s add to it. He has gone the distance in 4 straight fights, winning 2 and dropping 2 close decisions. Of his last 6 wins, 4 have come on the cards and Shamil has gone the distance 7 times which is a lot for a heavyweight. Play for a grinding decision.

CB Dollaway/Khalid Murtazaliev

See Betting Scenario Section.

Rustam Khabilov to Win by Decision -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are a lot of unknowns on this card, but we have a decent understanding of these two fighters. Khabilov has gone the distance in 6 straight, including all the fights on his current winning streak. His last finish was a 2013 injury TKO suffered by Yancy Medeiros. Johnson has been finished on multiple occasions, but unless Khabilov really opens up- this fight probably turns into a grind with the Russian controlling the position on the wall and cage. Take him on the cards.

Mairbek Taisumov to Win by Decision +210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Taisumov has been a killer, no doubt- but Green is a different animal than the types of fighters he has been facing. He has been submitted just twice, never knocked out, and go to the cards 20-times. Taisumov has only gone the distance 4-times, winning once, but this is the type of next level fight that will test him. Green is solid. He could push Mairbek, but only to the cards- not enough to win.

Magomed Ankalaev to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Prachnio just opens himself up too much. He is too willing to attack and doesn’t focus enough on defence. If Ankalaev puts him on the mat, look for him to open up with GNP. Rebounding from his first career loss and fighting at home will be a lot of motivation for a strong performance.

Ramazan Emeev/Stean Sekulic 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Merab Dvalishivili/Terrion Ware 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

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