UFC Fight Night 137: Santos vs Anders- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Thiago Santos $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Andre Ewell $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med 
Fighter 3: Charles Oliveira $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Luis Henrique $7500 
Fighter 5: Gillian Robertson $8300 
Fighter 6: Hector Lombard $8400 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Marina Rodriguez $8200 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Eryk Anders +143 vs Thiago Santos -152 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are a lot of lobsided fights on this card with debuting and relatively unknown fighters. That makes betting on a fight like this one a priority. The line has only been posted for a short while so movement has been limited. Ander has the tools to survive this situation, but it is still not ideal. Santos presents a pretty big hill to overcome and he has limted time to prep for it. Silva gets his kicks going, works in a couple of takedowns, and generally frustrates Anders until he gets the finish. Santos is a Gold Play for me.

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Santos is a killer. When he wins, he does so by stoppage (normally). There are a number of heavy favs on this card so getting a known finisher fighting at home for $8600 will help make the rest of your lineup more manageable. Add him.

Alex Oliveira -400 vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr. +373 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is clearly a no play. Short notice, limit info on Pedersoli, and Oliveira is just wild/ sloppy enough to give Carlo a chance to pull this one out. I could see this fight being much more competitive than most expect. Pass.

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The price is not worth it here. Pass.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +309 vs Sam Alvey -335 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Alvey is way too frustrating to back at this price, especially with his style. The way he fights it leaves enough of an opening for the judges to score a close fight in favour of Little Nog. Pass.

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Too expensive and with his low output, he has to pick up the finish or its a no go.

Andre Ewell +143 vs Renan Barao -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t trust Barao. He is fighting at home and has a path to victory, but he just looks done. At the very least, he can put together a strong start and then he drops off the table. Ewell is the bigger man and appears to be the better athlete. Unfortunately, Ewell opened around +250 so we have lost out on some of the value which prevented him from moving into the Silver section. I have him as a Bronze play.

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Barao can take a shot, so a finish is that likely. They key here is volume. Once Renan starts to slow down, look for Andre to start to pile up the damage. He might even get a late finish. Additionally, he is very affordable and frees up some cash for other investments.

Randa Markos -107 vs Marina Rodriguez -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This pick would snap almost a career-long trend for Randa of alternating wins and losses. Marina falls into the same category as most of the girls that normally beat Markos. She is a capable striker, with superior range weapons, and wants to avoid the mat game. Markos should win this fight if she can spend most of it on the floor, but that is easier said then done. I also think she will have to do more than normal to win a decision against a flashier opponent fighting at home. Rodriguez opened as a much bigger favourite and has slowly drifted towards a near pick’em fight. I have even seen spots where she is the fav. Markos might need a finish or a dominant performance in enemy territory. Style, location, and the odds all make Rodriguez a Gold Play.

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Rodriguez is worth a look, but I have her as a spare for now. Markos is a tough out but she is hittable make the $8200 price tag tempting.

Charles Oliveira -375 vs Christos Giagos +336 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will pass here on the straight-up bet, but as of right now I am lacking a third Gold play and I might be considering Do Bronx by sub to fill in that spots. Wait and see.

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Not shockingly I have Charles in my lineup. His submission game is so strong and Christos seems to be open to getting sub. Maybe his grappling defence has improved since his first UFC run, but Oliveira is just too damn slick.

Francisco Trinaldo -205 vs Evan Dunham +196 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

It is hard to bet against Dunham in his last fight, but I just don’t like his chances against the power of Trinaldo. Trinaldo is sitting anywhere between -190 and -260 depending on the site, so shop around. I have Trinaldo in the Bronze section, but he could be a No Play as he drifts above the -225 mark.

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Dunham is tough and even though I am backing Trinaldo to finish him, I don’t want to spend the $8900.

Luis Henrique +143 vs Ryan Spann -157 

I like the dog money on Henrique here. Spann is chinny and tends to fade. Unless the cut takes a lot out of Henrique, he sees like he absorbs a lot more damage before going down. Even if Spann doesn’t get knocked out, his cardio is garbage and Henrique should be able to grind him down. I like the Brazilian at home against the debuting fighter. Silver play.

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Henrique is cheap, especially considering he is facing a fighter that has been finished on multiple occasions. Luis breaks and finishes Spann. Add him.

Augusto Sakai -200 vs Chase Sherman +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Sakai is big, hits hard, and moves pretty well. Add in that he is fighting at home against a fighter that has a below average chin and poor defence and I like this scenario. I like it, even more, considering Sakai opened somewhere around the -285 mark and has worked down to the -225 to -200 range. I like Sakai as a Bronze play.

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Sakai could get a finish but he is too expensive for my blood.

Sergio Moraes -265 vs Ben Saunders +252 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

As much as I think that Moraes is better set up to win this fight, I don’t trust him to work to his strengths. There is the advantage of fighting at home where he has edged out some close and controversial decisions, but his value has dropped quite a bit. Let’s stay away, shall we?

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Moares isn’t a knockout artist and Saunders should be able to survive on the floor. I will stay away here as well.

Gillian Robertson -140 vs Mayra Bueno +133 

Robertson has burned me in back to back fights, but that isn’t why I am picking here. For the most part, Bueno has found success ending fights quickly. That can create a lot of issues for a fighter if they can’t get the early finish. Robertson will survive/defend early and eventually take over as her opponent fades. Robertson has made strides on the feet which will show up here. Bueno is a bit of an unknown, that makes this a Bronze play.

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Robertson has finished both of her UFC opponents and has shown the ability to work at a pretty consistent pace. She also fits the cash we have left over. Add her.

Thales Leites +109 vs Hector Lombard -120 

This is a toss-up and the line reflects it. Leites is fading and Lombard is still a major bust. If you look at Lombard’s recent fights, he didn’t lool terrible despite the lack of wins. Lombard dropped Dollaway, was ahead of Smith, close with Hendricks, and nearly finished both Magny and Hendo. Leites tends to fade, badly, and if he can submit or even take Lombard down I don’t like his chances of winning this fight. He has also fought very poorly in each of his last 2 performances in Brazil. Lombard was the dog, but has moved to the favourite. I still like the return.

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Lombard is in my lineup because he is affordable and has the type of power that could finish most. Leites is a tough out, but if he fades like he did last time Hector will thump away and get the stoppage.

Elizeu Zaleksi Dos Santos -625 vs Luigi Vendramini +674 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yup, Nope!

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No play here, too expensive.

Livia Renata Souza -1075 vs Alex Chambers +996 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Above.

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See Above.

 

1. Charles Oliveira -375 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Elizeu Zaleksi Dos Santos -625 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Livia Renata Souza -1075 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Augusto Sakai -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Marina Rodriguez -105 

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6. Thiago Santos -152 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Alex Oliveira -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Sam Alvey -335 

9. Luis Henrique +143 

10. Gillian Robertson -140 

11. Francisco Trinaldo -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Andre Ewell +143 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Sergio Moraes -265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

14. Hector Lombard -120 

1. Luis Henrique +143 

2. Andre Ewell +143 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Marina Rodriguez -105 

4. Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Hector Lombard -120 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Eryk Anders/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 1.5 +115 

Both guys have finishing skills and I expect that Anders will come out looking to finish considering he is on a short camp and won’t want to fight deep into the fight. That will also open him up to getting finished. Watch for Ander’s big left and Santos body kicks to help us lock this one down.

Alex Oliveira to Win by Decision +242 

Oliveira has been on a roll putting opponents away, but Pedersoli is a tough out. He is fairly well-rounded and should be able to hang with Oliveira early. The logic here would suggest playing the finish with a lesser known and short notice opponent, but we will fade that and play the distance.

Sam Alvey to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -105 

Alvey has power in his hands, but he needs his opponent to cooperate. Little Nog is going to want to stand and trade and that will open him up to Sam’s counters. The Brazilian has had a good run, but he is at the end and Alvey puts a stamp on it.

Charles Oliveira/Christos Giagos 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Luis Henrique Inside the Distance +310 

Spann has been finished in 3 of his 5 defeats and facing a fighter that can finish on the mat or with his hands. Henrique’s stopping power is being undervalued here because he has been hanging with Heavyweights. This play keeps his submission skills and Spann’s questionable chin in play in play.

Augusto Sakai to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Sherman’s willingness to carry his chin high is going to drastically shorten his career at Heavyweight. Sakai throws power and moves pretty well for a big guy. Speed is usually an advantage Sherman enjoys, there won’t be nearly as big a gap this time around. I considered the Under, but I like giving Sakai a little longer to pile up the damage.

Sergio Moraes to Win by Decision +180 

Saunders has never been submitted and Moraes has gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 wins overall. Sergio might get the fight to the floor, but Ben will hold his own and keep him from grabbing the finish. Moraes has fallen in love with his striking but lacks the power to finish opponents with any consistency. Take him on the cards in what could be a close one.

Elizeu Zaleksi Dos Santos/Luigi Vendramini  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Livia Renata Souza/Alex Chambers 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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