UFC 299: Khabib vs McGregor- Post-Fight Show & Bet Pack Review

 


Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

===================================================
Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Khabib Nurmagomedov $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Derrick Lewis $7500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Jussier Formiga $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Tony Ferguson $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Dominick Reyes $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Felice Herrig $8300 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Vicente Luque $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Conor McGregor +155 vs Khabib Nurmagomedov -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Well here it is, the big fight that everyone has been waiting for. I am of the opinion that if you took the styles and skills of these 2 fighters and remove all the talk and bravado, this line would be drastically different. The line has held relatively true with little movement which isn’t that surprising. We are getting some serious value on Khabib. Can Conor knock him out? Sure. But should have make him only a slight underdog? I don’t think so. We have seen Connor get tired from just striking with a pressure based opponent. Even if KN can’t get him down on his first shot, by simply making him work hard it will slow Conor and lead to success in rounds 2 and beyond. McGregor has a variable window for success and it slams shut as soon as Nurmagomedov gets his hands on him. I like this scenario, especially when you are getting anything below -220 its a great deal. Gold Play for the Champ.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Khabib on my Fantasy team. He is only going to cost you $8400 and he has put up near or above 100 points in all his UFC fights but one. He will score with takedowns, volume of GnP, and a finish. Add him!

Anthony Pettis +319 vs Tony Ferguson -319 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am going to stay away from this fight. Ferguson is the rightful favourite, but the layoff is concerning and Pettis is talented enough to capitalize on the openings that Ferg leaves via his over aggression. It is also worth noting that Tony opened somewhere around -265 to -280 and has steadily dropped in value. I will look at a prop bet, but this is a No Play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Tony in my Fantasy lineup. He is a proven finisher with a track record of producing over 100 on multiple occasions. Pettis has been known to fade in bouts where he is pushed and while Ferg won’t have 5 rounds to engage him in, he can still score a sizeable about of offence here. Add him.

Dominick Reyes -222 vs Ovince Saint Preux +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a nice step up in competition for Reyes. Nice in that he is facing the best fighter he has ever fought with solid name recognition, but also nice in that his skill sets still matches up well with what OSP has to offer. OSP does a lot of things well, but you can also drive a truck through the holes in his game. Unfortunately, Reyes opened somewhere around -170 and has been bet down to the -220 and beyond range. But, don’t be surprised to see some late cash come in on OSP to hopefully gets DR back below -200. At anything below -250 I still will take a shot at Reyes in my Silver play. He is making the move up in talent against a very good fighter which keeps me from pulling the trigger on a Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Reyes is getting the call in my Fantasy lineup. For a fighter that has made quick work of each of his opponents, we are getting him for sub $9000 which is fantastic. With the money saved on Lewis and Formiga we can pick up another heavy hitter like Dom, so make sure you cash in.

Alexander Volkov -162 vs Derrick Lewis +153 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love this line. Volkov is coming off a good win and has looked very solid during his UFC run. Conversely, Lewis has been winning but has fought that well. Further to that point, he is coming off of arguably one of the worst fights in the history of the UFC. Those type of performances coupled with Volkov stopping a former champion is going to influence this line. The Lewis line has stayed fairly consistent, but I expect him to lose a little value the closer we get to fight time. Ultimately, Lewis is undefeated when he completes at least one takedowns and Volkov has given up at least 1 takedown in each of his UFC bouts. Lewis is going to be too much from top position. Gold Player for the Black Beast.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Lewis is going to cost you $7500 and for a fighter that has won all but one of his UFC bouts by stoppage, that is pretty fantastic. With his top game power and Volkov’s inability to deal with early TDAs, Lewis has a good chance of an opening round stoppage. Add him.

Felice Herrig -112 vs Michelle Waterson +105 

This fight opened near even and Herrig has been bet to the favourite. She is currently sitting anywhere between -110 and -130. Still a solid return. Waterson’s wins are a little underwhelming when you take a step back- Magana is a washout and PVZ isn’t the elite fighter everyone made her out to beat. Her best win is over Casey who has issues beyond the opening round and Michelle barely edged her out. Herrig is bigger, stronger, carries a more active work rate. Felice gets the nod as a key Silver play, narrowly missing out on a Gold bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Herrig gets the calls to my Fantasy team. She is affordable and fits the price range after hiring the monsters we already have on our team. Waterson can be finished by sub and Herrig has shown that if given the opportunity she can close the show. Add her.

Jussier Formiga +138 vs Sergio Pettis -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are getting a fantastic deal on this fight. I was shocked to see Formiga as the dog. Pettis is coming off a win over Benavidez and became the first man other than Cruz or DJ to beat him. I thought it was close and could have gone either way. Benavidez beat Formiga. So people are looking at that and view Sergio as the next big thing. When you take into consideration that Joe was returning after a lengthy layoff, it certainly diminishes the quality of the win. Pettis gives up TDs and lacks the stopping power to back Formiga up. Formiga is elite on the mat and capable of finishing or working towards a decision. So, if Pettis gives up that early TD- he is going to drastically fall behind. Further, he tends to struggle a little down the stretch. If Jussier gets ahead, Pettis will struggle to catch up. Gold play for the Brazilian underdog.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Jussier in my Fantasy lineup. He is a constant submission threat, especially if he gets to Sergio back and his ability to land takedowns and advance position will produce points. Additionally, his sub $8000 tag will net us some extra spending cash for other big-ticket players- add him.

Jalin Turner +616 vs Vicente Luque -714 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a hard pass. I will look instead at a prop bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Luque is an alternate. I can’t afford him with the current roster unless I swap someone out. I really like my top 6 and will probably ride with them across the board.

Aspen Ladd -162 vs Tonya Evinger +150 

This was an interesting fight to pick. You have a pair of fighters with similar, but not identical approaches- one has youth on her side and the other has a high level of experience going for her. The oddsmakers are aware that the last thing the public saw was Evinger getting thrashed by Cyrborg and Ladd stopping Lansberg- those are 2 polar opposite scenarios. There is value with Evinger- she made a long run as the Invicta champ and went undefeated over 11 fights before the Cyborg loss.  Ladd lets Lansberg control the position and outwork her, only taking over when Lina gassed. That won’t be the case here- Evinger will control and dictate the action bell to bell. This fight got some consideration as Silver play, but I dropped it back to a Bronze mainly because we had both girls returning from layoffs.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as I see this fight being a grind.

Alan Patrick -255 vs Scott Holtzman +236 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am not a huge fan of how Patrick fights, but he is effective at what he does. Holtzman, on the other hand, tends to give up takedowns and can do so in bunches. I think there are better places to invest your money on this card so staying away is the best option here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Patrick goes the distance more often than not. Pass.

Lina Lansberg +180 vs Yana Kunitskaya -190 

I am not playing the MMA math game here, but I liked the toughness that Lansberg showed against Cyborg and conversely, Yana seemed to shut down as soon as things got a little rough. I still like what Lina does here. I feel both girls are going to invite the clinch position and Lina is going to be more effective. I think her elbows will resonate more than Yana’s knees and Lina does a better job of holding the superior position. If Yana goes for subs and misses, Lansberg will jump on top. I had this fight much closer to a pick’em because it could come down to what the judges like more, so with Lansberg’s value on the rise- grab her.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This type of fight won’t be a big point producer. Pass.

Gray Maynard +211 vs Nik Lentz -227 

This one is a hard sell for many and I understand why. Maynard isn’t exactly in a good spot despite his recent success, but I feel this is a decent stylistic fight for him. Lentz could knock him out with one shot, but the struggles that Nik has against other wrestlers is a key factor here. Gray opened around the +155 range and has increased in value ever since. Yes, people are fading him because of his chin- but if he sticks to his wrestling-heavy attack against Lentz- he can pull this one out. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nope! Another decision in the works here.

Ryan LaFlare -132 vs Tony Martin +130 

We are getting some serious value on LaFlare here. He opened around -265 and has come way down with a lot of action on Martin. What made Martin good was his size at LW, but he couldn’t keep his cardio game flowing for a full 15 minutes. LaFlare isn’t going to get muscled around by Tony and unless this turns into a striking battle, LaFlare should find success taking him down. As the fight advances and RL continues to push him, Tony should fade just enough to let the gap widen. Silver play for LaFlare.

Draft-Kings-Logo

LaFlare is a decision machine- not Fantasy MMA material. Pass.

 

1. Vicente Luque -714 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Jussier Formiga +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Khabib Nurmagomedov -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Tony Ferguson -319 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Dominick Reyes -222 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

====================

6. Ryan LaFlare -132 

7. Derrick Lewis +153 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Felice Herrig -112 

9. Alan Patrick -255 

10. Tonya Evinger +150 

11. Lina Lansberg +180 

12. Gray Maynard +211 

1. Jussier Formiga +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Derrick Lewis +153 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Tonya Evinger +150 

4. Lina Lansberg +180 

5. Gray Maynard +211 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Conor McGregor/Khabib Nurmagomedov Total Rounds Under 2.5 -150 

I have seen this line as low as -125 and I have seen it around +130 at 1.5 rounds. I like the under and will take the extra round as security. If Conor wins it will be via knockout inside the first 5 minutes. For Khabib, he will look to ground him and smash him. Could Conor make it through round 1? Possibly and that puts a lot of pressure on Nurmagomedov to get the job done early in round 2. Take the extra round at a still very playable price.

Tony Ferguson to Win by Submission +200 

The layoff off for Ferg is my big concern here. If his return goes well, he should get the finish. Tony has subbed 3 of his last 4 and 5 of his last 7 opponents. He loves to capitalize on that panic shot when a fighter can no longer deal with the pressure. Pettis will fade and start to struggle, eventually getting himself wrapped up in a choke. Solid return the sub.

Dominick Reyes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -110 

Reyes might not get the swift finish we are used to seeing, but I still think he gets it done. OSP starts to struggle when he can’t bully his opponent and the hand speed and power of Dom is going to back him up. I love the way Reyes keeps his hands up and ready to engage and couple with OSP’s tendency to hang his hands low is a recipe for disaster. Take the Fav by finish.

Derrick Lewis to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lewis has won almost all of his UFC fights by stoppage and done so on the mat. He is 5-0 when he lands at least 1 takedown in a UFC bout. Volkov has given up at least 1 takedown in each of his 4 UFC fights and had similar issues during his Bellator run. With those types of numbers producing a scenario that still gives us plus money, we have to back this.

Jussier Formiga/Sergio Pettis 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Luque is going to get a finish if he wins, so it comes down to how he gets the finish. Turner looks like the type that is going to his best work standing which suggests Luque might opt to take him down. Conversely, Turner is hittable so if Luque unloads he can certainly put him down. I will take the knockout.

Alan Patrick to Win by Decision -155 

If you are going to back Patrick this is your best bet. He has gone the distance in 9 of his 15 wins and 4 of his 5 UFC wins. He is a grinder that feasts on takedowns and top position. Holtzman has never been finished and tends to give up a lot of takedowns and top postion. Patrick grinds him out and takes it on the cards.

Gray Maynard/Nik Lentz

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Ryan LaFlare/Tony Martin 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White