UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs Moraes- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Jimmie Rivera $8200 
Fighter 2: Jake Ellenberger $8600 
Fighter 3: Gian Villante $7700 
Fighter 4: Jose Torres $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Gleison Tibau $7200 
Fighter 6: Gregor Gillespie $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Walt Harris $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Jimmie Rivera -101 vs Marlon Moraes +105 

This should be a great fight and it could really go either way. The odds indicate how close it could be, with some sites posting Moraes as a slight favourite. Rivera opened closer to -190 and Moraes around +150 so you can see how close they have come together. This tells me we are getting som value on Rivera. Moraes fought close fights against less aggressive fighters, so if Rivera can keep him on his back foot and not pay for it- this fight is his for the taking. As close as this fight could be, I have Rivera in my Gold play based on value.

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I added Jimmie to my Fantasy lineup. I don’t expect him to get a finish, but over 5-rounds he should put up over 100 significant strikes and 2-3 takedowns which will be decent production from an $8200 fighter.

 

Gregor Gillespie -430 vs Vinc Pichel +375 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Gillespie is a pretty heavy favourite, but I don’t see him as a worthwhile investment. Pichel has edged out close fights before and if this fight hits the cards, he could do it again. You are better to look at a prop bet here to help pump up Gillespie’s value. No Play.

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I do have GG in my fantasy lineup. He can finish or he can put up big takedown numbers over 3 full rounds- add him.

Daniel Spitz +250 vs Walt Harris -254 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Most sites have Harris between -250 and -265 but some have him over -300, shop around. Harris is the type of fighter that the UFC wants to get going and Spitz provides him with a fight that is very winnable. Spitz doesn’t have the cardio to beat him over 3 rounds, or at least he hasn’t shown it and Harris is the far greater athlete. I expected to see Walk up around -400, if it weren’t for a bogus DQ loss and the Werdum fight he would be on an impressive streak. Gold Play.

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Harris is a solid spare option. He is a finisher and usually does it in the first half, if not the first round. You would have to swap out GG to make Walt fit, but he offers a little diversification.

Ben Saunders +175 vs Jake Ellenberger -170 

Jake is as low as -160 in some books, but anything under -200 is still a worthwhile bet. Saunders has finished some low-level talent, scraped by a couple of middling guys, and got blasted in the rest of his fights. Jake’s struggles have come against the top of the top of the Welterweight division. He needs to be given a chance to rebound, similar to what Matt Brown got a few years ago. I think this is a perfect fight for him. Saunders isn’t a great athlete and the mileage is showing. Jake’s recent wins have come over fighters similar to Saunders. He gets it done here- Gold Play.

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Jake is far more dangerous then his recent slump would suggest. Equally as important is how often Saunders has been finished. Jake should find success, especially with his kicks to the lower half, hurting and finishing him.

Daniel Teymur +185 vs Julio Arce -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Arce’s value is improving. He looked good in his debut, but we are still dealing with a pair of relatively new fighters. Picking against Teymur, I like what I saw at the weigh-ins. He was way too aggressive coming out and going nose to nose while Arce appeared laid back and relaxed. Teymur will most likely come out strong and fade. Arce is a home and he is a Silver play.

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I passed here. I don’t feel Arce is a worthwhile play. Invest elsewhere.

Gian Villante +131 vs Sam Alvey -137 

I was a little surprised to see Villante as the dog here. Alvey is coming off his first stoppage in several fights and it came against a fighter that literally ran forward into the knockout. Villante’s kicking game and jab are being undervalued here. Yes, Alvey could KO him if he can land, but Villante is a good starter and that should get him past the traditional danger zone of the opening round. Gian’s fight IQ has been an issue before and he could get drawn into a brawl which is my biggest concern. Villante is a legit LHW and that shows up here. Take the value and bet it hard. I like Gian as the key to my Bronze Play.

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If Brunson can take out Alvely, Villante has the power to do it as well. Look for his leg kicks to slow Alvey down in a similar way to what they did to Anderson. He is very affordable and should put up 65-85 points with a decision win, more with a finish. Add him.

Lauren Murphy +170 vs Sijara Eubanks -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’ve seen a lot of people backing Murphy here. Eubanks made weight, but that doesn’t mean she might not fade tomorrow. Murphy narrowly beat Honchak in her debut. I see Eubanks doing more here, especially with her takedowns. She hasn’t moved much in the odds, but keep an eye on fight day as some public money will most likely flow in on Murph and could get Eubanks into the -150 range. Silver Play.

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Murph is a tough out and considering where that this fight spot usually goes the distance this is a pass here.

David Teymur -277 vs Nik Lentz +260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With Teymur’s value dropping more and more, he is most likely a fighter to avoid here. My original plan was to have him in the Bronze section, but Lentz is dangerous enough to make this a DNP. Avoid Teymur at this price and potentially consider a Counter Bet on Lentz.

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Nothing here, too expensive.

Belal Muhammad -380 vs Chance Rencountre +340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Muhammad’s chin and the amount of unknown surrounding Rencountre is enough to say no thanks on this fight. DNP.

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Belal isn’t known for his finishing skills. The volume potential is tempting, but I will try somewhere else.

Desmond Green -290 vs Gleison Tibau +265 

I can see avenues for both of these guys winning fights. Green has lost back to back fights to similar fighters and it would be a tough pill to swallow to recognize that and not back him. Green tends to let his offense drop in rounds 2 and 3. This could create a chance to pick up Tibau at an even greater price with a Live Bet. I expect close rounds, so keep an eye on Tibau’s price after round 1. Tibau defends the TDs, scores a couple of his own and is slightly more active on the feet. Bronze play.

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Tibau gets the call because he is affordable. I’m looking for 65 points in a decision win. Tibau’s best chance to finish is via sub, but it won’t be easy.

Jessica Aguilar -110 vs Jodie Esquibel +105  

Jag is not the fighter she was, but this would signify a massive dropoff from she was. Esquibel’s TDD is a major question mark and she lacks the volume to make up the difference. Aguilar back is against the wall and I think she shows up here doing more then she did in the Casey fight against a lesser opponent. Jess cracks the Silver play.

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Not a lot of point potential here so I will pass.

Johnny Eduardo +240 vs Nathaniel Wood -260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing doing here. I feel Eduardo should be considered a greater threat then these odds suggest. Wood is dangerous but he is taking a step up against good competition. Maybe a counter bet on Eduardo and/or a prop. DNP.

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I considered Wood because of his finishing ability, but as a new fighter with a high price tag, I passed.

Jarred Brooks +150 vs Jose Torres -148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Torres looks nasty on the feet and we have seen that Brooks has struggled to win fight despite his ability to score a high volume of takedowns. If Brooks can’t keep Torres on the mat for the entire mat he is going to get lit up. Keep in mind Brooks is small for the division and Torres has won a Bantamweight title on the regional scene. His size will show up when they clinch. The debut factor keeps him from creeping up the ranks. Bronze Play.

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I can see Torres getting the finish here against a very hittable opponent. Brooks was wearing damage in the 2nd half of his last fight and I feel Torres will replicate and surpass that performance. Add him.

 

1.Gregor Gillespie -430 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Walt Harris -254 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Belal Muhammad -380 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Julio Arce -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jake Ellenberger -170 

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6. Jose Torres -148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Jessica Aguilar -110  

8. Jimmie Rivera -101 

9. David Teymur -277 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Nathaniel Wood -260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Sijara Eubanks -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Gian Villante +131 

13. Gleison Tibau +265 

1. Gleison Tibau +265 

2. Gian Villante +131 

3. Jimmie Rivera -101 

4. Jessica Aguilar -110 

5. Jose Torres -148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Johnny Eduardo +240 

2. Nik Lentz +260 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Gregor Gillespie to Win Inside the Distance -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Picking a win by TKO or Submission provides a far for lucrative return, but I like to keep my options over. I was impressed with the control that GG has used to get his opponents on the mat and keep them there. Once he gets to back mount, look for him to stretch his foe out and start hammering down or hunting for a sub. Play him by finish to keep everything on the table.

Walt Harris to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I looked at the under and considering all of Harri’s wins have come in the first round but 1, it is worth some consideration. After looking at Harris by knockout and seeing the price is comparable, I will give him a little extra time to score the stoppage. Spitz might be able to hold him off for a round, but his lack of long fight experience will cost him later in the bout if we get there. Harris stops him.

Jake Ellenberger to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +100 

Both guys can be finished and can finish, but it might not happen before 1.5 round mark. I have Jake winning and I don’t see him subbing Ben, so the next best option is to play the knockout. Saunders can take a beating so seeing this fight last into the second half if a real possibility. Bet accordingly.

Gian Villante to win by Decision +185 

Alvey has only been stopped once and Villante has gone the distance in multiple recent fights. If Villante is smart he needs to sit on the outside, use his kicks to slow Sam down and land his jab. His other option is to use his size to grind Alvey into the cage. All the way in or all the way. This might not be exciting, but that is the formula for taking out Alvey. Play Gian on the cards.

Lauren Murphy/Sijara Eubanks 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Belal Muhammad to win by Decision -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If you want to get some money in on Belal, this is the play to make. 9 of his 13 wins have come by decision including each of his last 3 victories. His opponent has never been finished with a 4-2 record on the cards. The rest of his resume suggests he will need a finish to counter the consistent combo striking of Muhammad. Play Belal by decision at a fairly reasonable price.

Jessica Aguilar to Win by Decision +150 

I don’t see Aguilar getting out-wrestled here and her size should show up once she gets in top position. The biggest concern for Jag is whether or not she gets outworked on the feet. She has had 1 finish in her last 11 fights, so getting plus money here is very cloe to getting plus money for Aguilar to win outright. Take it.

Johnny Eduardo/Nathaniel Wood 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jarred Brooks/Jose Torres 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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