UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs Till- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Stephen Thompson $8400 
Fighter 2: Jason Knight $8300 
Fighter 3: Eric Spicely $8700 
Fighter 4: Gina Mazany $7700 
Fighter 5: Neil Magny $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Gillian Robertson $7300 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Darren Till -101 vs Stephen Thompson +105 

Till has been looking for a big fight and now he has one. He has a big win over Cerrone, a blown up Lightweight, who seemed to be a little spent. This is a step up for sure. Thompson is a vastly superior striker. His variety is going to give Till fits. Till’s best chance for victory is early, but after he starts to slowdown Thompson is going to pick him apart. I think we are getting a solid price here. The value pushed Wonderboy to a Gold Play.

  • Despite the recent track record of fighters missing weight, I still like Thompson. With Till having to weigh in at 188 on Fight Day, that will keep him from ballooning back up and force him to keep his weight on point for the fight. Stick with Wonderboy.

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Thompson could score a stoppage or he could put up some decent points over 25-minutes. He is also pretty affordable despite still being the fantasy favourite.

Craig White +501 vs Neil Magny -539 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is easily a No Play. Magny isn’t worth it and White is just dangerous enough to cause some problems. No Thanks.

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If you are looking for a finish, Magny can do it. If you are looking for volume, Magny can do it. He could even grab a couple of takedowns to add to the total. Add him to your lineup.

Arnold Allen -215 vs Mads Burnell +220  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Burnell is a good matchup for Allen. He doesn’t have the striking skills to beat him on the feet and unless he catches him in a sub, look for Allen to out-muscle him and hold the superior position. If this is a close fight, Allen at home should get the nod. I was debating between a high-level Silver play to a low-level Gold Play. I think he fits in the Gold section as I had him closer to -250 to -275.

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Allen is a little too expensive for my liking, especially if this fight goes the distance.

Jason Knight -157 vs Makwan Amirkhani +143 

I’ve seen lots of people on Amirkhani. I try to avoid trendy dogs. I fell into that trap with Kondo last time out and it cost me big time. Amirkhani has switched camps looking to improve his striking, but I don’t like it when a fighter’s ability to win a fight requires him to set out of his comfort zone. Knight’s ground game is better and will hold up longer. Even if Makwan has improved his striking, I still expect his cardio to fail him possibly late in the opening round. Knight rebounds against a step down in competition. Gold Play for Knight.

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Knight is affordable and pushes a decent pace. He has also shown that he can finish. He stopped a similar fighter in Skelly who is a crafty ground fighter with questionable cardio. Add him.

Claudio Silva +309 vs Nordine Taleb -278 

I am shocked that Taleb is still floating around this area, but some sites do have him upwards to -360 which is still playable for me. I just don’t see Silva winning this bout. The layoff by itself is a major concern. He is slow, older, and a well below average striker. Taleb will have to gift him a position to screw this up. Gold Play for Taleb here.

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Nordine is fairly expensive so I opted to leave him off my lineup. Silva is tough and despite his recent successes, Nordine is not known for his stopping power.

Eric Spicely -162 vs Darren Stewart +160 

Stewart needs an early knockout. His over aggression and lack of cardio will get him in trouble. Once this fight hits the floor, the talent gap widens significantly. Spicely is a smart fighter and unless he gets caught early this is his fight to win. The gap on the mat is not represented by these odds. I love this price based on the mat game- top Silver page.

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Spicely is not cheap, but he is not as expensive as some. He finishes most of his wins and Stewart gets finished in most of his. Add him.

Dan Kelly +314 vs Tom Breese -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Breese has been off for too long and Kelly seems to defies the odds more often than not. This is either a Bronze play or a No Play.

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Nothing doing here.

Gina Mazany -125 vs Lina Lansberg +118 

Lansberg just flat out hasn’t impressed me. She was underwhelming versus Pudilova and folded against Ladd. Mazany carries a pretty decent pace and is more than capable of outworking her here. Lansberg could be the trendy dog on this card and that suits me just fine. Mazany could get the fight to the floor and snag a finish. Grinding fight. Bronze play here.

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Mazany is a Fantasy dog and quite affordable as a result. Her volume will score points both with strikes and takedowns and as mentioned above, a finish isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Brad Scott +150 vs Carlo Pedersoli -157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was impressed with what I saw out of Pedersoli and quite honestly, I have been underwhelmed by Scott. Even in victory, he struggles to separate himself from his foe. I see Pedersoli being the more diversified fighter with nothing to lose. I am also not thrilled about Scott cutting back down to 170. He is a decent size and the cut could hurt him more then it helps. Take Carlo as a Silver play.

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Scott is a pretty tough out despite his fight with Hermansson. I see this fight going the distance. Pass for now.

Gillian Robertson +210 vs Molly McCann -157 

With McCann missing weight I am little disappointed, but I still like the play. Her aggressive style will play well against Robertson who needs to be in specific positions to be effective. if GR can’t get the fight to the floor, she is going to struggle. Pulling guard could be a mistake here. Silver play.

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I do have Robertson in my Fantasy lineup. After picking my other 5, there were none of my picks left that I could afford. If Robertson wins this fight, it is by a finish. Play her and hope that the rest of the team produces if she does not.

Elias Theodorou -366 vs Trevor Smith +348 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Smith is better than the line suggest. I will pass here.

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Same, Elias isn’t a finisher and even though Smith has a questionable chin I expect that this fight is going to the cards.

 

1. Nordine Taleb -278 

2. Neil Magny -539 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Arnold Allen -215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Eric Spicely -162 

5. Jason Knight -157 

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6. Tom Breese -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Elias Theodorou -366 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Stephen Thompson +105 

9. Molly McCann -157 

10. Carlo Pedersoli -157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Gina Mazany -125

 

1. Stephen Thompson +105 

2. Eric Spicely -162 

3. Jason Knight -157 

4. Molly McCann -157 

5. Gina Mazany -125 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Neil Magny to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With White taking this fight on short notice, going a full 3-rounds with Magny could be tough. He has been finished on 6 occasions twice by knockout and 4-times by submission. Magny has shown that if he can wear you out, he can finish you. I like him to get the stoppage, probably via GNP from back mount.

Arnold Allen to Win by Decision +106  

I see this fight being fairly well-matched. I still think Allen gets the nod, but Burnell will hold his own on the feet. Against other ground-based fighters like Amirkhani and Meza, Arnold won but never really came that close to stopping the fight. Take him on the cards.

Claudio Silva/Nordine Taleb 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Eric Spicely to Win by Submission +105 

I considered the Under 1.5 which is probably still a solid bet, but I like Spicey by sub. Stewart has struggled with his submission defence, but as we saw it the Marquez fight- he had to be worn down a bit. Wisely will eventually get him on the floor for the sub, but give yourself a little extra time.

Molly McCann to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +350 

We know the track record of fighters missing weight (I know I picked against Till and stuck with it after the fact). Nonetheless, I like how aggressive McCann is. She throws hard and moves forward. We really don’t know how Robertson will deal with that type of pressure. I like the value here.

Elias Theodorou/Trevor Smith

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

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