UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs Usman- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Diego Rivas $8600 
Fighter 2: Alexandre Pantoja $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Chad Laprise $7400 
Fighter 4: Syuri Kondo $7500 
Fighter 5: Felipe Silva $9400 
Fighter 6: Enrique Barzola $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Kamaru Usman $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Dominick Reyes $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Gabriel Benitez $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Demian Maia +540 vs Kamaru Usman -380 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I just don’t see how Maia wins this fight unless he gets a freak submission. Usman has all the advantages short of pure submission skills. On the feet or the mat (after Maia starts to slowdown), Usman should take this fight. I’ve got Usman as a Gold play, most likely used to bump my other picks.

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Usman is a spare. I could see him finishing Maia here simply because he has taken so much damage over his last 2 fights. At the same time, Maia is a pretty tough cookie to crack so the $9500 keeps KU out of my starting 6.

Alexa Grasso +600 vs Tatiana Suarez -625 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Wow, no! Grasso might be worth a look at this price. I pass.

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Nothing here either.

Diego Rivas -155 vs Guido Cannetti +150 

Cannetti is a quick starter, but if he can’t get the finish he is going to fade. I expect improvements out of Rivas, but he should have the tools to get the better of the action here, especially in rounds 2 and 3. His lack of consistent success knocks him down to a Silver play.

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When Cannetti loses it is traditionally via submission. There are several fights that I have heading to the cards so I need to jump on a fighter that traditionally gets put away. Add him.

Dominick Reyes -230 vs Jared Cannonier +215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Reyes has looked pretty solid so far, but this is a nice step up for a fighter that has finished his 2 UFC opponents. I don’t see an overwhelming amount of value for Reyes, but he will work as a contributor in the Bronze section.

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I have Reyes in my spare list. He is expensive, but I think he can put the stamp on Cannonier in this fight. Use him as a backup.

Andrea Lee -280 vs Veronica Macedo +265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This should be a fairly fun scrap. Lee’s debut has been a long time coming it seems. I wasn’t overly thrilled with Macedo’s debut and Lee’s aggression should carry here, especially once she gets on the inside. I have Lee closer to -320, so she is still a decent play. Almost a Silver, but I knocked her down to the Bronze section with this being her debut.

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Lee is pretty expensive and while she may get the finish, I will pass here.

Chad Laprise +190 vs Vicente Luque -193 

I went back and forth on this one. Luque needs the finish to win this fight. I don’t like his record beyond the first round. Laprise’s speed and ability to switch stances will make it hard for Luque to time him. Chad needs to keep his offence flowing here. and force Luque to swing and miss. Bronze play for the Canadian.

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Laprise is cheap and his volume should be there over a 3-round win. There is potential for him to get a finish here if Luque really slows down. Add him.

Michel Prazeres +165 vs Zak Cummings -161 

I see the price on Cummings as a bargain. Prazeres has yet to win a fight without finding success with his takedowns. He has a strong TD arsenal, but part of his success comes from being the bigger and stronger fighter. That won’t be the case against a former LHW. Cummings will defend and then pressure his way to a victory. Gold Play!

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I don’t see Cummings submitting Prazeres, instead, they will probably go to the cards. It is a pass for me.

Alexandre Pantoja -120 vs Brando Moreno +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love this play! Moreno has a deceptive record which led me to back Pettis and I feel Pantoja is even more suited for victory. His record consists of a couple of snap victories, a narrow split decision win against a low-level opponent and a loss to Pettis. If Pantoja can avoid giving up that big moment, he will win the striking exchanges and either avoid or edge out the action on the mat. Gold Play.

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With so many heavy favourites on this card, we need to find a couple of lower costing options. Pantoja at $8200 is just that. He could score the finish on the mat or he could put up some respectable points with his volume. Add him.

Poliana Botelho -145 vs Syuri Kondo +140 

Botelho did next to nothing in her debut win, but her opponent did less. Kondo will not follow that plan. Kondo’s striking is more technical and more consistent. There is also more of it. Look for Kondo to keep coming forward and really start to pull away in the second part of the fight. I gave some thought to playing her as a Gold play, but she will be a key bet in my Silver section.

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Kondo is a great under the radar play. She is very cheap and while she might not get the finish, look for her to land between 115-150 significant strikes. Add her!

Brandon Davis +190 vs Enrique Barzola -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Davis could be a live dog here, but I don’t see him handling the TD heavy style of Barzola very well. He couldn’t adjust in his debut and seemed to get frustrated with his opponent’s unwillingness to engage. Barzola will do the same, just utilizing takedowns instead of movement. Barzola fits in as a Silver play.

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After some adjustments, Barzola is in coach! With his ability to routinely put up big takedown numbers he is capable of scoring us points without grabbing a finish. Add him,

Frankie Saenz -303 vs Henry Briones +290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a No Play for me. Saenz is just too inconsistent for my liking. Pass.

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Pass here too!

Gabriel Benitez -175 vs Humberto Bandenay +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I gave some thought to backing Benitez as a Silver play. He has looked pretty good at times and only lost to decent competition. The problem here is that we aren’t sure what Humberto is bringing to the cage. It has been so long since we saw him last and we saw so little of him. Bronze play.

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I had Benitez in my lineup, but dropped him to a spare as I feel Barzola’s heavy takedown attack has been more consistent than Barzola’s ability to finish. Spare.

Claudio Puelles +290 vs Felipe Silva -300 

This is a No Play here, but I might look at a prop option.

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I do have Silva in my lineup. He is aggressive and hits hard and I was not impressed with how Puelles folded in his last fight. Silva overwhelms and finishes him!

 

1.  Kamaru Usman -380 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Zak Cummings -161 

3. Alexandre Pantoja -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Andrea Lee -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Tatiana Suarez -625 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Syuri Kondo +140 

7. Enrique Barzola -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8.  Diego Rivas -155 

9. Gabriel Benitez -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Felipe Silva -300 

11. Dominick Reyes -230 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Frankie Saenz -303 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Chad Laprise +190 

1. Syuri Kondo +140 

2. Chad Laprise +190 

3. Alexandre Pantoja -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Enrique Barzola to Win by Decision +107 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Zak Cummings to Win by Decision +154 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Fight Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Kamaru Usman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -137 

Maia has taken some beatings in his last 2 fights, but he survived. Nonetheless, that damage is piling up. Over 5-rounds, Usman will be able to do a lot of damage, especially as the threat of Maia’s BJJ is diminished by exhaustion. I don’t expect to see a 1-punch stoppage, but more likely by the accumulation of damage and exhaustion.

Tatiana Suarez to Win by Submission +250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Suarez has a strong wrestling base which allows her to control the position and work towards a submission. For a fight that is a lopsided as it is, getting plus money on the favourite for a submission win is value worth investing in.

Diego Rivas/Guido Cannetti Total Rounds Under 2.5 +107 

I had this line set at 1.5 rounds, so getting plus money with an extra round is huge. Cannetti’s aggression is the key here. It will either create a chance for him to finish or get finished. Add him.

Dominick Reyes to Win inside the Distance +112 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will keep both finishing options in play here. If he gets the stoppage it will probably be by some form of knockout, but Cannonier is vulnerable on the floor so I want the submission win to be on the table as well. Seeing Cannonier to get dropped by Blachowicz certainly raises questions about how he will fare against a guy like Reyes who hits hard and is more aggressive.

Andrea Lee to Win Inside the Distance +134 

I gave some thought to being a little more specific, but I want to give Lee a wide birth for getting the finish. Macedo just seems a little undersized still and Lee’s aggression will wear here down similar to what AES did. I think Lee can finis her, but you might have to wait until the final round.

Michel Prazeres/Zak Cummings 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Syuri Kondo to Win by Decision+189 

5 of her 6 career wins have come by decisions and she is taking on an opponent that has limited experience in longer fights. While her style could lead to a stoppage by accumulation, she will most likely outwork her opponent leading to a victory on the cards.

Enrique Barzola to Win by Decision +107 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Davis is tough so Barzola isn’t going to finish him without a lot of effort. I like the takedown-heavy offence of Enrique to eat up the clock, frustrate Davis, and lead to his 6th result on the cards in 6 UFC fights.

Gabriel Benitez/Humberto Bandenay 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Claudio Puelles/Felipe Silva 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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