UFC Fight Night 129: Barboza vs Lee- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Luan Chagas $8000 
Fighter 2: Corey Anderson $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Keita Nakamura $7400 
Fighter 4: Edson Barboza $7800 
Fighter 5: Justin Willis $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Frankie Edgar $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Thiago Santos $8900 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4:  
 

 

Edson Barboza +140 vs Kevin Lee -145 

Lee missed weight and I read somewhere that of the last 10 people to miss weight for a fight, 9 won their fights. That is scary, but its too late to change my prediction now. I will cut Barboza back from a Gold play to a Silver play. He needs to keep this fight standing and make Lee pay for it. Barboza improved his ability to deal with pressure after the MJ and Ferguson fights. I think his defensive wrestling improves after the Nurmy loss. Silver Play.

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Edson is cheap and killer. If he can’t get the stoppage over 5 rounds he will land enough strikes to make him worth the investment. With multiple ways to score and a price tag that frees up money for other players, add him.

Cub Swanson +205 vs Frankie Edgar -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Unless Frankie’s chin is completely gone, I don’t see how he doesn’t win this rematch. In fact, I think this fight is put together by the UFC to get him back into the mix and repay him for fighting Ortega when he could of said no. Edgar takes him down and grinds out a decision. Gold Play.

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Frankie could get a stoppage win, but I am expecting him to win with takedowns and volume over 3 rounds. Cub can’t stop the takedown and Frankie will put up points one way or another. Add him.

Chase Sherman +275 vs Justin Willis -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

At Heavyweight a single punch can change a fight. That could be the case here, but I think it will come from Willis. Sherman’s chin is just not good enough to hold up if Willis starts to unload. The price isn’t amazing, but I feel he is potentially worth a shot as an add-on in my Gold Section.

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Willis throws hard and sleeps guys when he connects. Sherman’s chin is cracked and that will produce points when he lands. Add him.

David Branch +160 vs Thiago Santos -165 

Santos is an animal, but I am a little concerned that Branch might not be getting the respect he deserves. Either way, if DB is unable to get him down, Santos is going to light him up in the clinch and at distance. I had Santos closer to -120 or so which has me cutting back to a Silver play.

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Santos could be in your lineup. If he fights to finish and he isn’t super expensive. I have him as a sub that you should use frequently.

Aljamin Sterling -105 vs Brett Johns +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line is getting incredibly close. I think Sterling has a little more name recognition so he will draw more public money based on that. Johns has some solid wins, but I would like to have seen him beat Soto over a more drawn out affair. Sterling has been facing better competition and I think it shows up here. He will test Johns TDD and score crucial takedowns in a close fight. IThis is a make or break fight for Sterling, try to get him as early as possible, but he is still worth it. Gold Play.

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I will pass on this fight. I see it going the distance and Sterling doesn’t offer the type of striking volume that I feel comfortable with if a finish is not likely.

Dan Hooker -325 vs Jim Miller +295 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am passing here. Hooker should win, but Miller is at home and could pull off the upset. Pass.

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Nothing here.

Alex Garcia +135 vs Ryan LaFlare -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am on LaFlare here, but not as confidently as I initially expected. Garcia could catch him when he closes the distance to clinch/wrestle. LaFlare’s range game is just not good enough in my eyes to bet on alone. Garcia’s cardio is the biggest factor and it favours us, so I have LaFlare in my Silver section.

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LaFlare is a grinder and most likely won’t pick up his first career UFC finish here. Pass.

Luan Chagas -118 vs Siyar Bahadurzada +110 

This is a close fight and could really go either way early. Chagas needs to grapple and kick- those will give him the edge over Siyar. That being said, if he gets tired, he could get finished. Bronze play.

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I do have Luan in my lineup. He hits hard and he has submission skills. Siyar is awfully tough, but he does have a couple of submission losses to his name and some TDD issues. Add LC!

Corey Anderson -130 vs Patrick Cummins +121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like this fight. Cummins is a beast, but his chin is garbage and so is his striking defence. He feasts on fighters that get tired. Anderson will not. He will defend the TDs or force Pat to work hard for them, eventually get vertical and crack that chin. Anderson isn’t as a good of a wrestler, but he is a more effective striker. Gold Play.

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I also have Corey in my lineup. He hits hard enough to put PC down and that will produce points us.

Merab Dvalishvili +140 vs Ricky Simon -141 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

It takes a special type of person to score 11 TDs and not win the fight on the scorecards. Dvalishvili has that going for him. Simon is the better and more active striker and he can wrestle. Can he stay vertical? That is the key to his success. First time seeing him in the UFC. Bronze play.

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Nothing doing here pass.

Keita Nakamura +210 vs Tony Martin -229 

Taking a shot at the Underdog here. Martin has had trouble with other capable grapplers who can take him down. Nakamura is a solid grappler that is pretty durable and can strike at close range. Martin is going to lose his physical edge here even though Nakamura isn’t a big WW. A bit of a risk, but a Bronze play.

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Nakamura is cheap and if Martin fades, look for K-Taro to lock up an RNC for the win. Cheap, finishing skills, and an opponent that could get finished. Add him.

1. Frankie Edgar -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Justin Willis -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Dan Hooker -325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Corey Anderson -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Ryan LaFlare -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Aljamin Sterling -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Thiago Santos -165 

8. Edson Barboza +140 

9. Luan Chagas -118 

10. Ricky Simon -141 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Keita Nakamura +210 

1. Keita Nakamura +210 

2. Edson Barboza +140 

3. Aljamin Sterling -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Luan Chagas -118 

5. Corey Anderson -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack information.

Prop Bets

Cub Swanson/Frankie Edgar 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Justin Willis to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +115 

I honestly didn’t expect this to be a plus money bet. “Big Pretty” showcased how hard he hits in his last fight and Sherman’s lack of a chin opens him up for the finish. I thought about the Under, but I want to give Willis as much time as possible to put him down.

Alex Garcia/Ryan LaFlare 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Corey Anderson/Patrick Cummins Total Rounds Under 2.5 +210 

Both fighters have issues with their chins. Anderson is the better striker, but Cummins could catch him standing, but more likely his stoppage would come from top position. I like the 2.5 rounds and we are probably getting it because of the potential for a boring grappling match, but I will take it.

Merab Dvalishvili/Ricky Simon 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Keita Nakamura/Tony Martin 

See Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White