UFC Fight Night 126: Cerrone vs Medeiros- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Donald Cerrone $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Marcin Tybura $8300 
Fighter 3: Sage Northcutt $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Roberto Sanchez $8000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Diego Ferreira $6900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Geoff Neal $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: James Vick $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Donald Cerrone -104 vs Yancy Medeiros +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Is Cowboy done? He certainly is struggling. Medeiros could add to his issues as he does his best work on the feet. I see Cerrone being a bit quicker to the mark and that being the key here. He will need to overcome the early pressure of Yancy, but look for Cerrone to attack to the body and either finish him or open up Yancy’s chin to take damage. I like Cerrone in a Silver play.

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Over 5 rounds, Cerrone is going to put up decent volume and/or finish Yancy. Medeiros can be hurt and can be finished. Cerrone is also affordable which is important with several big-ticket items on this card.

Derrick Lewis +120 vs Marcin Tybura -115 

The media is reporting that Lewis is in much better shape then he has been for his previous fights. I will believe it when I see it. I like Lewis, but I start to wonder if his style has been figured out. If not, his cardio is a concern and so is his failing back. Tybura isn’t easy to take down and I don’t expect to see Lewis having much success bullying him. Tybura’s superior striking will be the key to both score points and keep Lewis out of his best position to do damage. Tybura continues to climb, Gold Play.

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I think Tybura can score the finish here and an $8300 HW is worth the investment. At the same time I wouldn’t be shocked to see this fight go a full 15 minutes. If that is the case we will need to rely on striking volume and takedowns. Add him

Francisco Trinaldo +210 vs James Vick -223 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Vick is at home which is huge, but Trinaldo is still quite dangerous. Vick is really starting to round into a complete fighter and unless Trinaldo can close the gap and land something big, Vick simply has more weapons to call upon. Vick’s striking technique is superior, his cardio is better, and he will get the better of the action on the mat. Vick is a Gold play for me.

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Vick is expensive and facing a pretty tough opponent. I think he is worth a look as a spare to create some diversity in your lineup.

Curtis Millender +150 vs Thiago Alves -158 

I’m still not sure where Alves is just yet. He is coming off a very good performance, but Cote was also at the end of his run. Millender will provide some size issues, but I see Alves utilizing his leg kicks to chop down the much bigger Millender. Curtis has not has a lot of success against higher level opponents. Silver play for Alves.

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I’m going to pass here. Alves hits hard and can finish, but he might not be able to find that finishing blow here.

Sage Northcutt -282 vs Thibault Gouti +265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Northcutt should win this one, but I think he is either a No Play or a Bronze bet at best. I will look at a possible Prop option here as well.

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I do have Northcutt in my Fantasy lineup. He is fighting at home against a fighter that has been finished in all 3 of his UFC losses. Northcutt will benefit from facing a striking based fighter. Watch for Sage to come out more aggressive from the start of the fight.

Diego Ferreira +220 vs Jared Gordon -190 

I like Gordon to win this fight, but Ferreira is no slouch here. The layoff pushed me away from Diego. If you add in the defensive wrestling of Gordon and the relentless pace he carries I struggle to see how Diego wins this fight without landing a big shot on the feet. If Diego wins the first round, keep an eye on a Live Bet option on Gordon as Ferreira might slow down and drop rounds 2 and 3. Silver Play on Gordon.

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I passed on Gordon, but I took a shot on Diego has I needed a low-cost underdog to make everything else work. With him fighting at home he is just as likely as any other underdog to pull this one out.

Brian Camozzi +180 vs Geoff Neal -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Camozzi has really struggled against fighters with similar styles to Neal. Neal offers a good pressure attack, decent technique, and strong finishing skills. He should have no problem getting on the inside against a lesser athlete like Camozzi and landing those big shots. He is debuting and there is the potential that if he can’t get Brian out of there quickly, Neal could gas out and drop a decision. Bronze Play.

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The combo of Neal’s finishing skills and Camozzi’s questionable durability makes Neal a must play in your lineup! Add him.

Joby Sanchez -134 vs Roberto Sanchez +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was on Sanchez early, but then made the switch to Sanchez after watching more film on Sanchez. Ha! I like Roberto here. Joby gets taken down a lot and he doesn’t have the power to back Roberto off. Joby can scramble, but look for Roberto to spend a lot of time on top or even get a sub. I like a sophomore fighter fighting at home as a dog, he is coming off a loss and that is impacting the odds more than it should. Bronze Play.

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At $8000, Sanchez can produce with takedowns and transitions. Sanchez could also score with a submission win. Add him.

Lucie Pudilova -129 vs Sarah Moras +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like Pudilova here. Moras doesn’t have great wrestling and Pudilova has solid TDD. If this fight is contested on the feet, Lucie will light her up with volume and superior technique. Moras relies on her opponents to take her down, Lucie won’t do that. Gold Play.

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No finish here. I will pass.

Brandon Davis -185 vs Steven Peterson +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Davis is making a quick turn around on short notice, that could lead him to putting together a better performance or he could be too worn out. Peterson seems to be too grappling centric and Davis was able to get back up in his last fight. Davis will get the better of the striking exchanges, Bronze Play.

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No Play here.

Alex Morono -278 vs Josh Burkman +275 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not a huge Morono fan, but Burkman is done. I will look at a prop bet for this fight, but nothing worth playing straight up.

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Morono is more expensive then I want to invest in. Pass.

Oskar Piechota -287 vs Tim Williams +270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I expect Piechota to win this fight, but similar to the above bout, I will look at a prop bet here instead of a straight-up option. Pass.

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I am expecting a finish, Piechota is awfully expensive. I will pass.

 

 

1. Oskar Piechota -287 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Lucie Pudilova -129 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. James Vick -223 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Alex Morono -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Marcin Tybura -115 

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6. Donald Cerrone -104 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Jared Gordon -190 

8. Sage Northcutt -282 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Geoff Neal -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Thiago Alves -158 

11. Roberto Sanchez +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Brandon Davis -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Roberto Sanchez +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Lucie Pudilova -129 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Marcin Tybura -115 

4. Donald Cerrone -104 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Thiago Alves -158 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content

Prop Bets

Donald Cerrone/Yancy Medeiros Total Rounds Under 2.5 -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I had this line set at 1.5, so I will definitely take the extra round and run with it. Both fighters are aggressive strikers with clear physical vulnerabilities. Both fighters can be hurt to the chin and the body and both guys will target the others weakness. Nice value with an extra round.

Marcin Tybura to Win by Decision +277 

Tybura has gone the distance in 2 straight fights and in 3 of his last 5. He has stopping power, but he will know not to expose himself to Lewis by being too aggressive. I am expecting that Lewis will look for early TDs and then struggle to close the distance as he slows down. Similar to the Nelson fight, if Tybura scores a couple of takedowns, that will drastically eat up some time. The O/U is set at 2.5 which is unusual for a HW bout. I like the decision for Tybura at this return.

James Vick to Win Inside the Distance +185 

Vick has finished 3 straight opponents and scored stoppages in 4 of his last 5 wins. Trinaldo has suffered a trio of submission losses and has shown a vulnerability to opponents that push a strong pace. Vick will do that. Let’s keep all our options open here.

Sage Northcutt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +130 

Gouti has been finished in all 3 of his UFC losses. Only 1 came by knockout, but his first submission defeat was the product of getting rocked early. Northcutt is trying to develop himself as a more aggressive striker, this is the perfect opportunity for him to do so and get the finish. Bank on it!

Diego Ferreira/Jared Gordon 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Geoff Neal to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +166 

Neal has 5 wins by knockout, including stopping his foe in each of his last 4 wins. Camozzi has been stopped in both of his UFC defeats by fighters with a similar aggressive striking-based style. Look for Neal to come out strong and put him down for the 3rd time.

Lucie Pudilova to Win by Decision +117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Pudilova has gone the distance in both of her UFC fights and should have a marked edge on the feet here. She will utilize her jab and reach to keep Moras on the outside and avoid getting taken down. Backing WMMA decisions has been huge of late, let’s keep cashing in.

Alex Morono/Josh Burkman 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Oskar Piechota/Tim Williams

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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