UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs Anders- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Tim Johnson $7500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Douglas Silva De Andrade $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Thiago Santo $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Tim Means $8800 
Fighter 5: Polyana Viana $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Lyoto Machida $7300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Michel Prazeres $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Joe Soto $8200 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Lyoto Machida +236 vs Eryk Anders -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Machida is down, but is he out? If he is going to win a fight, it has to be this one. He is fighting at home against a relatively green fighter who is a bull rusher. If Machida can avoid Anders early, he should be able to take over this fight somewhere late in round 2/ early in round 3. Last time out, Anders went the distance with a hittable and fellow green fighter. His style isn’t going to be producing the same results as he moves up the ladder in competition. He has seen an uptick in fight length with his increase in competition and he is fighting in Brazil to add to it. Machida is a solid dog here, Silver Play.

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Machida is cheap at $7300. Over 5 rounds he should be able to put up some decent volume, but I am leaning more towards Lyoto scoring the finish once Anders slows down and starts to struggle to keep up. Add him

Priscilia Cachoeira +702 vs Valentina Shevchenko -874 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a no go here. Valentina should beat her everywhere, but the line isn’t even close to something that we should be looking at. Pass.

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I will pass here too.

Desmond Green +130 vs Michel Prazeres -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight is lined almost perfectly compared to where I had it in my head. Green can win, but he has to stay vertical and active. Prazeres wins with takedowns and/or by constantly pushing forward and backing Green up with volume. In Brazil, anything close should go to Michel. The weight cutting issue is a bit of a concern, but he has missed in each of his last 2 wins so I think I can overlook it. This fight will play out similar to Green/Khabilov, with Prazeres being a little more active and possibly landing a few more takedowns. Gold Play.

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Prazeres has recently shown his finishing skills, but I’m not sure he can put Green away here. He doesn’t have the volume to post big numbers over 3 rounds unless he can take Green down at will, so I have him on the bench.

Marcelo Golm -155 vs Tim Johnson +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Golm has been putting away his opponents in a tidy fashion, but now he is facing a more experience and battle harden foe in Johnson. If Tim can survive the first round against Golm, his grinding style should take control of the fight and break Marcelo down. Johnson is coming off a knockout loss to another young and debuting Brazilian and that outcome is most likely impacting this line with the public. I like Johnson as part of my Gold package.

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At $7500, big Tim is getting the call as part of my Fantasy lineup. He can put up some decent volume from the clinch and from top position, but he has also shown he can finish. If Golm starts to fade once he hits unfamiliar territory (round 2 and beyond), look for Johnson to go for the finish. Add him.

Douglas De Andrade +128 vs Marlon Vera -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Vera, I have backed him in a couple of his recent fights, but I just don’t see him matching up well with De Andrade. Vera’s best strikes are his kicks and the pressure of DDA is going to make them hard to get off. Additionally, Vera doesn’t have the wrestling to impose his ground game on the Brazilian. That leaves this as a standup battle and I like the power and aggression of the local fight to carry the action similar to Vera/Lineker. Silver Play.

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We are getting some value here with Andrade costing less then $8000. He has power and isn’t afraid to use is. Vera is hittable and if he gets desperate, he could opt to pull guard or give up takedowns which will further add to DDA’s point total. Add him.

Anthony Smith +257 vs Thiago Santos -275 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Santos here, but Smith continues to impress me and defy the odds. I am looking either at a No Play or a Bronze play as a part of a parlay. There is certainly cause to consider a Counter Bet here and I will probably make that official shortly. Santos should win with a superior striking game both in skill and impact, but if he slips- Smith will capitalize.

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I do have Santos in my Fantasy lineup. The guy is a monster and knows how to finish. Smith will come to fight and as a result, he will be there to be hit and take some damage. Anthony has been finished a lot and if Santos starts to pile up the damage it will happen again. Add him.

Tim Means -190 vs Sergio Moraes +175 

I like Means in my Gold play here, but there is a reason for pause. If Moraes comes out looking to grapple and can get Tim down, this fight gets flipped right on its head. We haven’t seen that approach out of Sergio very often, but the knockout loss could alter his mindset. Either way, I like Means here under the most consistent circumstance. Gold Play.

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Means also gets the call to the dance floor for some fantasy work. He is the superior striker in all areas and Moraes can be hit as he is willing to exchange. If Usman can take him out, so can the “Dirty Bird”. Add him.

Alan Patrick -219 vs Damir Hadzovic +216 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am not a fan of Patrick as a fighter, but fighting at home against an opponent with a clear vulnerability to one of the things Alan does decently makes him hard to overlook. Hadzovic can crack and Patrick leaves himself open on the feet, but I expect to see him use his physicality to just overwhelm him with takedowns and grind him out. Silver play as an addon in the Big Reward bundle.

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I like to see some potential for a finish when backing a fighter and although the takedowns could score nicely, I will pass here.

Iuri Alcantara +110 vs Joe Soto -120  

Alcantara is such a frustrating fighter. He gets beat with he should do the beating and then the next time out he absolutely startches his opponent. It would not shock me in the least if he comes in and either KOs or subs Soto inside the opening round or even 60 seconds. No shocker. At the same time, he may also be incredibly tentative and let Joe bring the fight to him, grinding out a win with volume. I have Joe in my Bronze section as the latter scenario seems to be the greater reality of late when Iuri fights.

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Soto is a spare. He will help you to mix up your lineups a little and he is fairly active with a capable submission game. I didn’t throw him directly into my lineup because he could easily get finished early and put up a big goose egg.

Maia Stevenson +345 vs Polyana Viana -337 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I won’t touch a side bet here. Way too many unknowns. Pass.

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I did see enough to suggest backing Viana for Fantasy points. Stevenson’s record tells us she is a can crusher, big time. She has struggled whenever faced with decent competition- which hasn’t been often. I expect Viana to push her and finish her. What makes her even more valuable is that most will overlook her because they don’t know who she is and she is very expensive. Add her.

Deiveson Figueiredo -147 vs Joseph Morales +133 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Figueiredo is lucky to still be undefeated in the UFC. Morales is a capable submission fighter, but I am not sure he has the wrestling to get DF into a position to use those skills. Look for Figueiredo to be aggressive on the feet and either get the stoppage or win a decision. Don’t be shocked to see the Brazilian doing damage from top position as Morales has got himself in trouble early in recent fights with his inability to stay off his back. Bronze play.

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I took a pass here. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a finish, but the cost was a little much for me.

1. Valentina Shevchenko -874 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Tim Means -190 

3. Alan Patrick -219 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Thiago Santos -275 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Polyana Viana -337 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Michel Prazeres -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Tim Johnson +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Douglas De Andrade +128 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Lyoto Machida +236 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Deiveson Figueiredo -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Joe Soto -120 

 

1.  Tim Johnson +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Lyoto Machida +236 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Douglas De Andrade +128 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Michel Prazeres -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Joe Soto -120 

1. Anthony Smith +257:  Smith continues to impress and I have been a fan since his Strikeforce days. This is a winnable fight if everything falls into place. I might consider a small play here.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Valentina Shevchenko to Win Inside the Distance -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was torn between a knockout (most likely a TKO) and a submission stoppage for Valentina. I see her opponent slowing down after her initial push and Shev picking her apart on the feet until she gets a superior position on the mat and scores a finish. Considering how lopsided the line is, I will take this play and keep any and all finishes in play.

Tim Johnson to Win by Decision +400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is always a risk with the Heavies as one punch can junk a decision prop real quick. Tim is a grinder and I expect to see him grind Golm out along the cage for the duration. He can wrestle, but he has had limited success taking opponents down. His best approach here is going to be to drag Golm into deep waters and drown him. Maybe we get a late finish, but I like this play. Prior to his last defeat, Tim had gone the distance in 4 straight fights so the +400 seems like a solid investment based on the numbers.

Anthony Smith/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 1.5 -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I want to keep both fighters’ finishing skills and history with getting finished in play here. I expect Santos will score a stoppage with his kicks, but it is hard to overlook what Smith has been doing of late. Play the Under.

Tim Means/Sergio Moraes 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Maia Stevenson/Polyana Viana 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Deiveson Figueiredo/Joseph Morales 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

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