UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs Choi- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Dooho Choi $8500 
Fighter 2: Matt Frevola $8900 
Fighter 3: Mads Burnell $7500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Darren Elkins $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: James Krause $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Irene Aldana $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Doo Ho Choi -152 vs Jeremy Stephens +140 

Choi is coming off a career altering fight and all indications are he is using the experience as a point of growth. We also have to consider the fact that he is closing on his manditory military service which will take him out of action for a prolonged period of time. This should increase his level of desperation. Stephens throws bombs, but he is also quite vulnerable when facing a more accurate and varied striker. That is what Choi is. At this price, I have Super Boy in my Gold Play section.

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Choi also makes the cut in my Fantasy lineup. At $8500, he is affordable and has real finish potential. If Choi can’t get the finish, over 5 rounds he will put up some solid volume against a hittable opponent. The guy put up 100+ points in each of his first 3 UFC fights. Sign him.

Uriah Hall -300 vs Vitor Belfort +284– Cancelled

I am going to pass here on a straight bet. Hall is just too inconsistent to consider at this price. I will look at a prop bet instead.

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Hall is expensive at $9100, but I expect him to finish this fight inside the first half. Belfort is pretty much done, outside of wins over other fighters at the end of their careers. Hall still has some gas in the tank and a vastly superior striking arsenal with a better physical makeup to deliver it. Add him.

Jessica-Rose Clark -105 vs Paige Vanzant+100  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was a little surprised to see that PVZ, based on reputation, wasn’t a heavy favourite. I am fine with it. I am impressed with JRC last time out and I think she can replicate that success here. PVZ isn’t the striker that Bec is, so Clark should find success on the feet. PVZ can threaten in the clinch, but I see her willingness to go for suicide takedowns costing her. Clark’s history of close fights keeps her from being a Gold play. Silver option here for JRC.

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I will pass on this one, I see it going the distance with JRC scoring 55-70 points at most.

Emil Meek +530 vs Kamaru Usman -588 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an easy no play. I might look at the prop options, but nothing is jumping out at me for the moment.

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I would like to have Usman on my team, but he is a little too expensive for the lineup I plan to use.

Darren Elkins +148 vs Michael Johnson -151 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I just don’t see MJ cutting to 145 as a positive. I didn’t think he was small for LW, not big, but certainly not small. Elkins grinding style should offer the same approach that Johnson has struggled with, even when he gets off to a good start. This pick is contingent on Johnson struggling to make weight or the cut being too much for him so we are looking at a Bronze play.

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Elkins has shown he can put up big points without scoring a finish. Takedowns and volume are the keys to his scoring success and at $7600 he allows us to add other bigger fish.

Alex White +148 vs James Krause -158 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like this line here. White is a decent athlete with some serviceable skills, but Krause is just a better fighter. White losses his physical advantages after moving up form 145 and that will show up here. Krause is a Gold play.

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Krause can finish, especially if he gets this fight to the floor. Even if he doesn’t, White is quite hittable. I love the price here. Add him.

Marco Polo Reyes +206 vs Matt Frevola -219***

No play here, Frevola is coming off the Contenders Series and it seems that other grads have been getting favourable matchups that they can win. I’m expecting an exciting fight, but a fight not worth investing in.

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With Hall now off the card, I need another finisher in my lineup and Frevola will fit the bill of the remaining options.

Thiago Alves +168 vs Zak Cummings -176 

Cancelled due to injury to Cummings.

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Jessica Eye -106 vs Kalindra Faria +100  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is the put up or shut up time for Eye. She has struggled against the elite at 135, but this is her division. If she is going to win a title or make a solid run, it has to start now. I think the UFC is giving her a favourable matchup against Faria who isn’t known for harbouring a top-level wrestling game. Eye gets it done with her volume and more technical approach. Normally, I wouldn’t lean on a fighter that has struggled so much of late, but this is Eyes fight to lose. Gold Play.

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Irene Aldana -152 vs Talita Bernardo +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Aldana has finished all of her wins in round 1 and has never gone beyond the first frame and won a fight. That is a huge concern, but she is coming off a split decision loss that showed she can compete deeper into a fight and Bernardo has a similar early finish stat line. I like Aldana to keep Talita off the mat and win this fight with her striking. Silver Play.

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Aldana is expensive and most players will overlook her a result, but she is a killer. She will have a big edge in striking and Talita looked pretty spent after just a round. Aldana lights her up for either a wide decision or a stoppage win. Add her.

Danielle Taylor +105 vs JJ Aldrich -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I originally leaned Taylor’s way, but I think her recent success was a product of her opponent’s lack of urgency. Taylor could easily be 0-3 and no one would bat an eye. Aldrich is going to outwork her. Sure she doesn’t throw with a lot of power, but she keeps throwing. That will be the key to convincing the judges that she is the better fighter. I had her in my Bronze section, but with the loss of Alves/Cummings, she gets the bump up.

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No Play here.

Mads Burnell +158 vs Mike Santiago -172 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a typical EPD play. Lots of unknowns here which make this fight hard to get a good read on. I like the dog in this case based on the numbers with Santiago’s questionable submission defence and Burnell fighting in his proper division now. Bronze Play.

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I originally had Burnell as a sub, but with Alves/Cummings off the board, Burnell gets the call to the big show. Add him.

Guido Cannetti +285 vs Kyung Ho Kang -309 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an easy no play here. Both guys have been off for a long time and Kang is too heavy a favourite to consider with such a level of unknown. Pass.

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I will pass on Kang here as well. I think he gets the finish, but he is darn expensive.

 

1. Kamaru Usman -588 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. James Krause -158 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Kyung Ho Kang -309 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Irene Aldana -152 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Doo Ho Choi -152 

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6. Jessica Eye -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Jessica-Rose Clark -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. JJ Aldrich -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Matt Frevola -219 

10. Darren Elkins +148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Mads Burnell +158 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Darren Elkins +148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. JJ Aldrich -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Mads Burnell +158 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Jessica Eye -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jessica-Rose Clark -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Doo Ho Choi to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +152 

Choi has finished almost all of his fights by knockout and while Stephens has only been finished once, his style is going to leave him open to eating some big shots. I like Choi to use his jab to set up his power strikes and eventually land the finishing blow before the end of round 3.

Kamaru Usman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +265 

Usman showed how hard he hits in his last fight and Meek likes to brawl which should give Kamaru another chance to land big time. Usman might not finish this on the feet, he could score a stoppage from the top position as well. I like the value on the biggest favourite on the card.

Darren Elkins/Michael Johnson 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Irene Aldana to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +441 

We can’t turn away from this line. Aladana has 7 career wins, all by stoppage, 5 by knockout. Talita is a grappler who has finished most of her fights in the opening round. She took her last fight on short notice, but I still don’t trust her gas tank. If Aldana keeps this fight vertical she has a very good chance to score the finish. Make sure you have this bet on your card.

JJ Aldrich to Win by Decision +164 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t see Aldrich being able to put Taylor away. She will spend the majority of the fight popping the jab and avoiding the big power strikes. I could see this ending with a split decision, so things could get a little tense before the call comes in.

Mads Burnell/Mike Santiago 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Guido Cannetti/Kyung Ho Kang 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White