UFC Fight Night 113: Nelson vs Ponzinibbio- “Great Scott! What a knockout!”

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Continuing a very busy July, the UFC headed back to Scotland for the latest Fight Night installment. The main event featured a Welterweight upset with Santiago Ponzinibbio cashing in as the underdog. Cynthia Calvillo continued to impress in easily the biggest fight of her career and Paul Felder further showcased the violence he is capable of unloading. The card featured seven finishes, including 5 knockouts and a single TKO win. I went 9-3 to improve my record to 42-17 over the last five shows. My multiple underdogs and a huge Prop bet on Smith by knockout cashing in my Bet Pack Betting Bundles returned profits of 19 and 27 units respectively. Let’s take a look at some of the key fights to make for some of the big names from Sunday’s show.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Neil Magny

What an impressive win over a talented opponent. Ponzinibbio continues to defy the odds and climb the ranks of the division. There are a number of option for his next fight, but Neil Magny is currently ranked fifth and is coming off a win over a former champion. This fight would offer a nice clash of striking styles and would be a solid Fight Night headliner.

Gunnar Nelson vs Dong Hyun Kim

That was a tough loss for Nelson and brought some of his liabilities to the forefront. He certainly can recover from the loss and facing/ defeating a ranked opponent would be a step in the right direction. Kim is coming off a tough loss and would present Gunnar with a stiff, but beatable challenge.

Cynthia Calvillo vs Carla Esparza

She continues to impress and beating Calderwood is a big step up from Cynthia’s previous two wins. Is she ready for a shot at the title? Not just yet, but a win over a former champion like Esparaza would go a long way. Carla is exactly high on the list of future challengers, but a win over Calvillo could help her to rebuild her status. Good fight for both ladies.

Joanne Calderwood vs 125 pounder

I can’t help but feel for Calderwood. Jo Jo misses weight and then drops a fight at home. Not only did she lose, she lost to a fighter that passes her by and shove her further down the ranks. For a fighter that came in as the #2 seed in the TUF tournament, she has never really made an impact. A move to 125 could be exactly what she needs to get going.

Paul Felder vs Evan Dunham

I feel like every time Felder fights I pair him with Dunham for his next outing. Felder has really impressed me in his last two fights and I feel he has turned a corner. Sometimes simpler is better and that applies here. He has the tools to make a run and Dunham is the perfect opportunity for him to take another shot at the rankings. Great Fight Night co-main event.

Khalil Rountree vs Steve Bosse

I don’t know if it is possible to make this fight happen. Bosses has trouble staying active. I considered a fight with Cannonier, but this bout just screams violence. I want to see Khalil pick up a couple of wins, continue to improve, and eventually work his way into a fight with a bigger name. A move to Middleweight is also a possibility.

Justin Willis vs Mark Godbeer

This is the fight we were suppose to get on this card until Godbeer pulled out. Let’s set it up again.

Alexander Pantoja vs John Moraga

Finishing Seery is a solid win and should be enough to garner Pantoja a shot at a higher caliber opponent. I like using Moraga as a measuring stick. He is a former title challenger with a lot of solid experience on his ledger. He is a good test to see where Pantoja is at.

Leslie Smith vs Katlyn Chookagian

I like Smith and it’s a shame that she gets buried on the undercard. This fight is a solid striker versus striker pairing. I would really like to see how Smith’s aggression and Chookagian’s defensive game would matchup. Get this fight on a Fight Night main card.

Final Thoughts

We are entering an era in MMA where not all or at least the vast majority of the top fighters compete under a single banner. This will open up opportunities for fighters like Santiago Ponzinibbio and this win is huge! Can’t wait to see him in the cage again. The Women’s divisions are still unrivaled and Calvillo is making her way up the ranks. I don’t know how far she can go, but it will be interesting to see where her ceiling is.

I’m rolling right now, solid record, good underdog picks, and solid betting returns. Let’s keep putting the work in and watching the results roll in. Off to New York!

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Santiago Ponzinibbio $7300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2:  Jack Marshman $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Paul Craig $7700 
Fighter 4: Galore Bofando $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Justin Willis $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Leslie Smith $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Joanne Calderwood $7400 
Fighter 2: Daniel Teymur $9000  
Fighter 3: Paul Felder $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Gunnar Nelson -164 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If Nelson gets this fight to the ground, he is away to the races. I think his patience comes back to haunt him here. Santiago is not the type of fighter that you want to settle in and start unloading. His leg kicks could really take away from Gunnar’s ability to land strikes at will. The impact and activity rate of the Argentinian is the key here, but he has to stay vertical- Silver Play.

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Over 5-rounds Ponz can put up some decent volume numbers and he hits hard. Nelson has never been finished, but at $7300 he is cheap. Calderwood is a decent replacement option in the same pay range.

Cynthia Calvillo -194 vs Joanne Calderwood +185 

Jo Jo missing weight is an issue, but I am going to stick with my pick here. Calvillo has looked great, but I think she is getting blown up a bit too much. Her wins are over a pair of relatively green opponents. I saw enough in the Gonzalez fight to suggest that Calvillo can be beat on the feet and as long as Jo Jo doesn’t start shooting takedowns like Pearl did, this is her fight to win at home. I was leaning towards a Gold play, but I will tone it down to a Silver.

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As mentioned above, Calderwood is a sub for Ponz. She can finish and if she can force Cynthia to spend the entire fight on the feet, look for her to pile up some significant damage.

Paul Felder +160 vs Stevie Ray -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lots of people on Ray here, inflating the price of Felder. I like it. Felder finally showed what I have been waiting to see out of him. Flashy spinning attacks have their place but we finally got to see Felder sitdown on his strikes, throw with power, and make them count. He did a lot of damage in a short period of time and blasted his opponent out of there in a hurry. Ray is a good striker, but he doesn’t throw with as much power as Felder and his track record in decisions isn’t great. He gets outworked here. Gold Play.

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Felder is a sub. Ray is no easy out so this fight has a high likelihood of going the distance. He is cheap and if he continues to push the pace like he did in his last fight, the 15-minutes will produce a decent amount of volume.

Jack Marshman -500 vs Ryan Janes +472 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a No Play. Marshman should win, but he is too flawed a fighter to even consider a bet at this price.

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I do have Marshman in my lineup. Janes is very hittable and while he has never been knocked out, he can be hurt and Marshman is the aggressive power puncher that won’t back off once he sees potential for a finish. Add him.

Khalil Rountree -170 vs Paul Craig +170 

I have to fade Rountree against a capable submission fighter like Craig. A lot of people are pointing to his lack of wrestling for the reason he will lose this fight, but I still feel he is good enough to get Rountree on the mat, probably through a scramble. Khalil is coming off of a win in his last fight against an opponent that was looking for a takedown, it was too quick to convince me that he has improved his TDD. Potentially by getting knocked down, Craig gets the fight to the floor and locks up a sub. Bronze play.

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When Craig wins, he finishes. We already know about the issues that Rountree has on the mat and Craig is only going to cost you $7700. Add him.

James Mulheron +170 vs Justin Willis -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Heavyweight fights can go either way in a hurry. It might only need 1 punch. Willis is the bigger man and should have the wrestling edge here. Traditionally, Mulheron would want to drag this fight deeper to gas Willis out- but the late notice scenario might prevent that from being an option. I like the power punching and potential takedowns of Willis to carry the day. I will take a risk here- Bronze play.

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Willis is relatively affordable and with Heavies you have a good chance of seeing a fight end via some form of stoppage. I like the way Willis throws with power on the feet and on the mat, even if he can hurt his foe with GNP he could force the ref to step in. Add him.

Bobby Nash +165 vs Danny Roberts -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nash had his moments against Li, but I think he is going to struggle with the more technical approach of Roberts. Danny has to avoid letting Nash come forward unchecked, but I don’t like the way the American tosses out single shots. The big question here is how do both men react from getting knocked out in their last fights? If it makes either man gun shy, that is going to be a massive issue. It is hard to bank on human nature, but I like the more technically sound approach of Roberts here. Silver bet.

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This fight spot usually goes the distance so I a going to pass on a Fantasy play here.

Alexandre Pantoja -345 vs Neil Seery +325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Big ‘NP’ for this fight. Seery is far better than this line suggests and will give Pantoja some trouble in this fight. The motivation to go out on top at home could push him to out perform expectations. Better to leave this one alone.

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Seery is not an easy out so I will avoid a Fantasy buy for this fight.

Charlie Ward +180 vs Galore Bofando -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an odd fight. Both guys are older, relatively inexperienced, and most likely not long for the UFC. I don’t see this fight going long. Ward is a brawler with a funky chin. Bofando hasn’t competed in MMA for a while but he is a very good striker and knows how to finish. With Galore’s shortcomings elsewhere, I get why many people are picking Ward to win on the mat. I can’t do it, I think he sticks to his brawling style and gets caught. Bronze play, but easily could be left off if you want to thin the herd a little more.

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With Ward’s style and question chin paired with the striking skills and finishing abilities of Bofando, I like Galore on my fantasy team. I see Ward getting clapped with a big kick, getting hurt, and eventually stumbling into the finish.

Daniel Teymur -184 vs Danny Henry +175 

I like what I see from David Teymur and Daniel appears to offer a similar skill set. Henry is the taller man, but is coming up a weight class. His record is most likely inflated based on his current fight location- South Africa and you have to take into consideration the kickboxing background of Teymur as well. I think we are getting a deal here, but with the level of unknown involved, I will scale it back to a Silver play.

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Dan is a pretty nasty striker and he has shown that he can finish and do so in a hurry. If Henry struggles with the impact of fighting a man at a higher weight class, this one might not take long. I’ve got him as a sub.

Albert Morales +314 vs Brett Johns -350 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here and might even consider a counter bet on Morales. Short notice is concerning, but the guy is dangerous. Pass.

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Nope.

Amanda Lemos +178 vs Leslie Smith -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lemos has traditionally put her opponents away early and those opponents have been fairly inexperienced. That is not Smith. Smith is tough, experienced, and gets better as the fight progresses. Lemos will be faced with adversity in this fight and will struggle to respond as Leslie keeps plowing forward. I don’t like to go all in this early on a card, but Smith is a Gold play for me.

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Smith will get overlooked by most, but she can score with a finish or volume. At just $8400 she is a solid add.

 

1. Leslie Smith -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Jack Marshman -500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Alexandre Pantoja -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Justin Willis -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Daniel Teymur -184 

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6. Brett Johns -350 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Danny Roberts -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Paul Felder +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Joanne Calderwood +185 

10. Santiago Ponzinibbio +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Paul Craig +170 

12. Galore Bofando -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Paul Felder +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Joanne Calderwood +185 

3. Santiago Ponzinibbio +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Paul Craig +170 

5. Leslie Smith -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Albert Morales +314:  I have no issue if you opt to leave this fight alone altogether, but it at this line Albert might be worth a small play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Betting Scenario Section.

Prop Bets

Jack Marshman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -140 

Considering Marshman has won 13 times by knockout and Janes has shown in previous bouts he is there to be hit and can but hurt, I think we are getting some solid value here. If Janes can’t score the takedown, he is going to have to slug it out with “Hammer” and that could be tough to sustain for a full 15-minutes. Take the money and run.

Khalil Rountree/Paul Craig Total Rounds Under 1.5 -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have seen this line somewhere closer to -210, but even that is playable. Both men will come out looking for the finish and someone will get it. Craig made some major mistakes in his last fight when on the feet and Rountree has the skills to reproduce that. Conversely, Rountree’s mat game is a major vulnerability against a pretty opportunistic grappler like Craig. I like the Under.

Justin Willis to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

As I have already mentioned, I likened Willis’s GNP to what “The Black Beast” offers. You might not go out cold, but you simply can’t do enough to prevent the ref from stepping in. Mulheron wants this fight on the feet, Willis can finish there but he is going to have more success on mat. I considered the Under, but there is value here as well.

Bobby Nash/Danny Roberts 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Alexandre Pantoja to Win by Decision +120 

Seery has been finished on multiple occassions, but he has cleaned up his defensive game in recent years. He will be double tough to get out of there considering this is his last kick at the can before he retires. Plus money for Pantoja to win on the cards is solid value.

Charlie Ward/Galore Bofando Total Rounds Under 1.5 -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ward has been knocked out twice, but will still look to brawl. Bofando is a talented striker with powerful kicks. If Ward does take the fight to the mat he could score a finish. I don’t see this bout getting out of round 1.

Albert Morales/Brett Johns

See Betting Scenario Section.

Amanda Lemos/Leslie Smith 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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