UFC Fight Night 112: Chiesa vs Lee- “Take the Win and Run”

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Unfortunately, I was unable to watch the entire card in OKC, only catching a few fights here and there. The event was not without controversy and certainly left us with some interesting talking points moving forward. Let’s take a look at a few hits from Sunday night.

Quick Hits
  • The win was controversial and while I would like to see them run it back, Kevin Lee would be best served to move onward and upward. Chiesa is too dangerous a fighter to risk a rematch with.
  • Missing weight in a heavier division worked out well for Rumble Johnson, but I don’t expect to see Johny Hendricks fighting at Light Heavyweight anytime soon.
  • Tim Boetsch continues to pick of solid wins to remain relevant in the division. He won’t win the title, but he is the perfect measuring stick for potential contenders.
  • After taking a break, Felice Herrig has pulled off a trio of upset. It might be time to start talking title shot.
  • The loss should serve as a learning experience for Justine Kish.
  • Debuting in the UFC as a heavy favourite comes with a lot of pressure, but Dominick Reyes certainly delivered.
  • While he didn’t get the stoppage, Tim Means picked up a much-needed win to rebound from hi loss to Oliveira.
  • This could have been the end of the line for Dennis Siver with a loss, but instead, he gets a nice win to build on going forward.
  • I’m not sure why BJ Penn would consider fighting again. This was probably his best chance to win. He looked better but was still out-gunned.
  • Welcome back to the Lightweight division Clay Guida. He isn’t winning a title anytime soon, but he will test the bottom half of the division.
  • The former Strawweight champ needed this win in the worst way. Carla Esparza fought to her strengths and got the job done, but she needs more of that to get back in the mix.

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Michael Chiesa $8200 
Fighter 2: Felice Herrig $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Tim Means $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Erik Koch $8600 
Fighter 5: Jared Gordon $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Dennis Siver $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Kevin Lee -125 vs Michael Chiesa +125 

This was a difficult fight to hadicapp and I would not be shocked to see the outcome go either way. I love the fact that Chiesa is the dog now, that is perfect. Chiesa is the more durable fighter and should have a slight edge in cardio. Lee’s lack of reach and sometimes simple striking will catch up to him here. Chiesa’s value is on the rise, so for a single bet you might want to wait until bell time. I like him in my Silver section, but he is close to making the jump to a top play based on his increasing value.

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Chiesa gets the call to my DK team. I don’t see Lee surviving a full 5 rounds with his cardio, questionable chin, and Chiesa’s aggressive striking/ grappling attacks. At $8200, Chiesa is an affordable finisher.

Johny Hendricks -150 vs Tim Boetsch +160 

This is Hendricks first real test against a legit sized MW. I think he has the tools to pull this one out, unless he fails to pull the trigger. I like Johny to edge out a close fight with the odd takedown and a greater work rate. Silver Play.

***Update: Hendricks missed weight, that is concerning, but I’m going to stick with my pick.

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Hendricks is a little cheaper than some favourites, but he hasn’t finished anyone in quite a while. I will pass here.

Felice Herrig +135 vs Justine Kish -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Another interesting fight that could go either way. Kish is powerful and aggressive, but reckless. I don’t fighters that give up position as a means to routinely get something better. When that fighter runs into better competition, they will get themselves in trouble. PVZ ran into that a little. Herrig’s grappling game is going to be key here. I feel Kish barely edged out her last 2 opponents, Herrig will do a little more and take this home. Silver play.

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Herrig can finish, especially if given position on the mat to do so. She has a capable submission game and at $8300 she might not get a lot of attention. She fits nicely into my lineup, add her.

Dominick Reyes -320 vs Joachim Christensen +320 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a pass. I was hoping the debuting Reyes would get a better number, but that isn’t the case. A short-notice debut against a lower level, but still experienced UFC fighter. No value here pass.

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Christensen is durable, but that could hurt him today if he is too willing to take damage. Still, Reyes is expensive. Pass.

Alex Garcia +220 vs Tim Means -227 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Means is a perfect example of the type of fighter that Garcia usually struggles win. Long, more diversified on the feet, and superior cardio. Means needs to avoid getting taken down early and finished. Force AG to work hard and it will pay off as the fight advances. I had Means closer to -280, he is a Gold Play for me.

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Means is my big purchase on the Fantasy cards. At $9000 he is expensive, but I feel the volume will be there and a finish won’t be too far behind. Some might stay away for fear of a ground-based wipe out favouring Garcia, I could see him winning round 1, but nothing more. Add him.

BJ Penn +175 vs Dennis Siver -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Welcome back…Dennis Siver. Hard to guage how he will look after a long layoff. It is also hard to judge how BJ will look against non-top end opposition. Siver has been more active overall and I feel he is in a better spot. He’ll survive the opening round and take over in #2. Bronze play.

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Siver is a little expensive for my taste, but I can see him getting a finish through pure exhaustion. He is a sub.

Clay Guida +290 vs Erik Koch -295 

Guida is headed back to LW, how will that change his performance? I don’t know, he is 5-years older from when he last fought at 155. Koch is the better striker, but needs to avoid getting out-worked here. I think he cracks Guida’s faltering chin and either subs him or GNP for the win.

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It is hard not to Fantasy fade a fighter that has been stopped in each of his last 4 defeats. Koch has the tools to make it 5 in a row. Act accordingly. Add him.

Marvin Vettori -329 vs Vitor Miranda +315 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a no play. Vettori is the more diversified fighter, but Miranda is a tough out if he can keep it standing. No bet here.

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Same here, best to avoid this fight. I could see a finish, but Vettori is a little costly for me.

Carla Esparza -219 vs Maryna Moroz +215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moroz didn’t impress me in her last fight and I think Esparza is being undervalued here. Her wrestling is still very good and should hold up here. Moroz won’t be as active off her back as Randa was.  Gold Play

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Darrell Horcher -368 vs Devin Powell +355 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a pass. Horcher should win, but the price is not there. Pass.

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Too rich for a possible decision win here. Pass.

Jared Gordon -140 vs Michel Quinones +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys are a little green and have been waiting for this fight for a while. I like Gordon to use his wrestling to grind it out. The limited info on this fight has me dropping it to the Bronze section.

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Gordon is affordable and will either score points with a stoppage or a continuous takedown attack. Add him.

Johny Case +125 vs Tony Martin -120 

I’m not sold on Martin here. He is a strong starter, big for the division, and can really grapple. I think his cardio is still an issue and Case will force him to work hard. Johny takes over the fight later and earns a decision or stoppage with his striking.

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Case can finish and he has the striking skills to pile up the volume once Martin starts to slow down. He sub $8000 price tag makes him a solid add for my lineup.

Jeremy Kimball +155 vs Josh Stansbury -155 

Kimball is unimpressive physically, but he can be scrappy. Stansbury has the tools to exploit his ground issues, but he needs to grind this fight to a halt. I’ve see Kimball quit, Stansbury has the tools to do it again. Bronze play.

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Pass.

 

1. Tim Means -227 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Carla Esparza -219 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Erik Koch -295 

4. Darrell Horcher -368 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Dominick Reyes -320 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Johny Case +125 

7. Michael Chiesa +125 

8. Marvin Vettori -329 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Felice Herrig +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Johny Hendricks -150 

11. Josh Stansbury -155 

12. Dennis Siver -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Jared Gordon -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Johny Case +125 

2. Michael Chiesa +125 

3. Felice Herrig +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Jared Gordon -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Josh Stansbury -155 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

See Betting Scenario Section.

Prop Bets

Kevin Lee/Michael Chiesa Total Rounds Under 2.5 -116 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lots of emotion here and they are going to come out looking for the finish. Both fighters do the majority of their finishing on the mat and that should lead this fight to an early end. Don’t be shocked to see Chiesa send Lee to the mat during an early exchange leading to the finish.

Dominick Reyes/Joachim Christensen Total Rounds Over 1.5 -106 

Reyes has finished all but 1 of his fights in the opening round. Christensen has never been finished via strikes. Fighters that have finish heavy records on the regional circuit usually hit a wall in their early UFC fights with the step up in competition. It might not go the distance, but I like the over here.

Tim Means to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110 

Means is a finisher and Garcia is the type of fighter that will slow down in the second half of the fight. The combo of Garcia’s poor cardio and Means’s superior reach and striking arsenal makes this a must play.

BJ Penn/Dennis Siver Total Rounds Under 2.5 +127 

BJ knows he has to go for it early before his gas tank gives out. That could lead to a finish for him or for Siver. If BJ’s cardio goes Siver has the skills to put him away. Either way, this fight isn’t going the distance.

Clay Guida/Erik Koch 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Carla Esparza to Win by Decision -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

It will be all about the takedowns. Moroz needs to hold up her end of the bargain and survive on the mat for the full 3-rounds. Moroz doesn’t offer enough on the feet to counter the impact of multiple takedowns. Esparaza will come out strong after her last performance. It is a dominant performance, but it will last 15 minutes.

Johny Case/Tony Martin

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jeremy Kimball/Josh Stansbury 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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