UFC Fight Night 111: Holm vs Correia- “A Bethe Of a Kick”

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It was an early morning, but the action was still worth the watch as the UFC returned to the Philippines. The main event started slow but ended with a bang for the former champion. The other two former title holders on the main card split went 1-1, with both fights going the distance. There are several fighters of note that picked up big wins on the weekend, let’s take a look at who they should lock horns with next time out!

Holly Holm vs Sara McMann

That was the type of performance that Holm needed to get back to relevancy. The fight played out almost exactly as I expected it to, with the finish coming in the middle round after Holly had figure out Bethe’s timing. If Holm wants another shot at the title, she will need more than that win to get there. McMann is also looking to revive her career and is a little further on. The winner of this fight might get a shot at the title, at the very least they take another big step forward.

Bethe Correia vs Cat Zingano

That was a brutal knockout all by itself, but the taunt that Bethe tossed Holly’s only moments earlier makes the result even worse. Correia is a scrapper, but she’s not elite. Bethe will carve out a career for herself in the middle to bottom of the ranks. Cat needs to get back in the game and Bethe won’t shy away from a fight.

Marcin Tybura vs winner of Struve/Volkov

Tybura gutted it out when it was going south. Arlovski is a nice name to add to his list and will help him get to the next level. The winner of Volkov and Struve will be in a similar spot in the division, despite both fighters being a little further along in their careers. The winner out of these three will hopefully get an opportunity at a title eliminator soon.

Andrei Arlovski vs Daniel Omielanczuk

Things seemed to be falling into place for the former champion. Tybura was tiring and Andrei was winning the striking exchanges. Unfortunately, the final round went bad quickly for Arlovksi and he has suddenly lost 5 in a row. That’s bad, but knowing the division, he’ll get another shot if he wants it. It is time for a step back. Omielanczuk is tough, but beatable. If he isn’t, than it is time for Andrei to hang them up.

Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman

I don’t know if it is his division quite yet, but Kim was certainly the biggest win of his career. Covington will crack the ranks and be looking for his next big opponent to help build his case as a title challenger. Usman offers a similar skill set; athletic, a wrestling-centric attack, and improving striking repertoire. Who gets to make the jump to the next level? We’ll let them decide.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Matt Brown

That is a tough loss for Kim. He has hung around the upper echelon of the division for a long time, but it would appear his chances of getting a title shot are officially over. Brown falls into that same category. These two fought back in 2008 with Kim getting the nod in a close split decision. Let’s run it back.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs winner of Nelson/Ponzinibbio

Like a couple of other former top Lightweights before him, RDA gets a big win to kick off his run in the Welterweight division. Both Cerrone and Masvidal made solid pushes up the ranks, but came up short. How far can RDA go? Nelson and Ponzinibbio are both moving up and a fight with a former champ, even a Lightweight one, is a good next step.

Tarec Saffiedine vs Carlos Condit

That is a tough loss. Tarec got off to a good start, but faded pretty quickly. While Dos Anjos is a former champion, he is unranked at Welterweight and will probably bump Saffiedine from the Top 15. If they want to pair him up with another fighter looking to rebound, Carlos Condit would fits the bill if he wants another fight.

Jon Tuck vs Vinc Pichel

Both fighters are coming off nice rebound stoppages where they took minimal damage. I don’t see either man shying away from a potential firefight and they can both compete on the feet. Pichel should want to get back in the cage ASAP after a long layoff and Tuck needs to build on his first win in recent memory.

Walt Harris vs Mark Godbeer

Harris seems to have finally found his footing and he has the tools and physical attributes to make a run. No need to push him too quickly or pair him with another prospect on the rise. The division can’t afford to have prospects taking each other out.

Ulka Sasaki vs John Moraga

This was easily the biggest win of Sasaki’s career and pairing him with a former challenger who also has a win over Scoggins makes sense to me. The timeframe works and if Sasaki is going to make a run up the ranks, Moraga is a perfect next fight.

Final Thoughts

Even with a strong 9-3 record, I’m not satisfied. This card was dominated by the favourites and only one of my dogs came through. The bet packs produce, both with solid returns- see them below. A number of my prop bets cashed and I nailed the counter bet on Sasaki by sub at +700. I wish I had pulled the trigger on making that my official prediction. Not much you can do now.

We get another Fight Night card next weekend, time is ticking! Check out the UFN 111 Bet Pack below.

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Holly Holm $9600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Andrei Arlovski $7500 
Fighter 3: Dong Hyun Kim $7700 
Fighter 4: Jon Tuck $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Russell Doane $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Lucie Pudilova $8200  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Walt Harris $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2:  Li Jingliang $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Naoki Inoue $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Bethe Correia +450 vs Holly Holm -520 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We can’t make a straight bet on Holm when the line is this huge. She has struggled too much of late to consider investing in for such a minimal return. I will take a look at a prop bet here, but this is a No Play.

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I do like Holm as a Fantasy play. There are a number of big favs on this card, so we need to pick our big players carefully. Holm has shown she can handle aggressive strikers in the past and her ability to time and counter is going to be key. Correia has been KOed once and was badly hurt in her last fight. Southpaw versus Orthodox will open up the big head kick for Holm. She won’t be a popular pick cash in.

Andrei Arlovski +209 vs Marcin Tybura -224 

A lot of people are on Tybura. I get it. He is young and improving. Arlovski is older, on a sizeable losing streak, and has been knocked out 10 times. That’s a lot. I’m 3-0 picking Tybura fights and have won 5-straight Arlovski outcomes. I don’t see the type of knockout threat from Tybura that has troubled Arlovski. Andrei is the better technical striker here and I see him having success using his clinch work to slow him down. This is a big step up for Tybura and he was arguably behind in his last fight prior to his opponent gassing. Arlovski grinds this one out. Not pretty, but a win is a win. Silver Play.

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With so many big favs on the card, we need to find a couple of inexpensive dogs. Andrei has shown he can still finish and if not, his volume and potential takedowns could produce a decent return. I’m expecting a lot of action on Tybura with Andrei’s history, which makes this play that much bigger if he cashes.

Colby Covington -285 vs Dong Hyun Kim +260 

I was a little surprised with this line. Covington has smashed a number of opponents, but nothing even close to Kim’s skill or experience level. Judo has served as a nice counter to wrestling heavy attacks. If Covington can’t get the fight to the mat, he is going to really struggle with the pressure of Kim. My concern is the cardio of Kim giving out before he gets the fight in the bag. I like the value on the Dong, Silver play.

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Like AA, Kim offers us a cheap play capable of scoring the finish. We really haven’t seen Covington under duress and Kim is going to test him. Sign the Dong. He’ll give you everything he’s got or go down trying.

Rafael Dos Anjos -255 vs Tarec Saffiedine +235 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

RDA is making his debut which leaves us with some unknowns. Saffiedine is a capable fighter, but his lack of power and consistent wrestling makes him a little one-dimensional. He has to outwork his opponent from start to finish to win the fight. RDA’s speed and aggression should be the difference here. We don’t have a lot of Blue chip straight bets on this card. I’m looking at a Prop bet on RDA by Decision for a Gold option. Check the prop section for more details.

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Too hefty a price on RDA and considering I have him going the distance. I’ll pass.

Jon Tuck -285 vs Takanori Gomi +280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I think Gomi is done, but this fight will prove that once and for all. Tuck is a step back from the guys that have been beating Gomi of late. He still has the skill set to put Takanori away, but if Gomi can put his offense together he could pull it out. Normally, if I play this fight it will most likely be a prop bet. On this card, with the number of wide lines and lesser known fighters, I might be inclined to use Tuck in a parlay at either the Gold or Silver level.

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Gomi is coming off of a trio of opening-round finishes where he went to the mat and never got up. Tuck has the skills to add to that slump. I like the quick finish to score. Add him.

Cyril Asker +285 vs Walt Harris -302 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Harris has been making strides over his last 2 fights and Asker seems like the type of opponent that he can continue to showcase himself against. Harris is bigger, potentially faster, and Asker will come forward to engage. The -300 line is a little much for me, but I like a prop bet if I get involved. Seems like I am saying this a lot.

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Harris is a sub in my lineup. You could sub him in for either Holm or Tuck. He is a popular pick, so if it goes sideways that is going hurt you but probably most everyone else too.

Alex Caceres -280 vs Rolando Dy +265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I feel like I’m reaching again here, looking at too many high +200s and low 3s. Caceres can’t beat the top portion of the division, but he is going to test the rest of the division. Dy is debuting on short notice and Caceres has a style that just wears guys out. I think he can do that here. If he goes any higher I would probably pass, but I’m thinking that I could pair him up with my Big Gold bet of the morning.

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Nothing here. A stoppage is a possibility, but at $9100 for Alex, it is a little high for a fighter that is a major takedown threat or that hasn’t shown consistent stopping power.

Justin Scoggins -485 vs Ulka Sasaki +459 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like this fight, but there is no way I’m touching Scoggins at this price. It is higher on other sites. Scoggins has made some major mistakes of late and has weight cutting issues. Add in fighting overseas and it wouldn’t take much for Justin to slip up. Sasaki has the skills to finish, if Justin makes a mistake. No Play on Scoggins, possible counter bet on Sasaki.

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Sasaki has been subbed and he has been knocked out in the UFC, but Scoggins’s best course of action is probably to maintain distance and just outland him. A finish could materialize, but a decision is certainly not out of the question. I’ll pass.

Frank Camacho +375 vs Li Jingliang -403 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like watching Li fight, but there is a very good chance that is all I will be doing in this fight. Camacho is another guy that we really aren’t too sure of. Being undersized in a higher division could give him the speed edge needed to crack Li’s chin. It could also get him outmuscled by the bigger man. Camacho’s cardio isn’t great either. I might look at the Under here. No straight bet.

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A finish is a real possibility here, but $9400 is pretty darn expensive. I will add Li as a sub for Holm.

Kwan Ho Kwak -110 vs Russell Doane +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Doane is going to be my top play of the day. Kwak has cardio and takedown issues. Those two things go hand in hand. If Doane can establish his TDs like he did against Alcantara he is going to exhaust Kwak and take away the striking threat. Doane has had issues with guys that can get the better of him on the mat, I don’t see Kwak doing that. I don’t see him out working him with his cardio issues, so it is knockout or bust for Kwan. Doane mixes in takedowns and a more active striking attack in the second half. Gold Play.

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At $7600, Doane completes my trio of underdog Fantasy picks. He has a good enough submission game to submit a BJJ Black belt, so a sub is certainly in play The sleeper aspect here could be the takedowns of Doane. Kwak gave up 11 in his last fight, if Doane can reach 2/3s of that total it will produce some serious points without a finish. Add him.

Carls John De Tomas +245 vs Naoki Inoue -257 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a battle of really young prospects. Really young. They need to be brought along slowly so this fight against each other makes sense. De Tomas missed weight, badly. I’m not sure how hard he tried to make the final cut, he might be drained, he might not. Either way, he depends too much on his wrestling for my liking. Inoue has been submitting some decent competition and is going to be aggressive of his back. I don’t like taking a debuting fighter with such a hefty line, but I will look at the sub option.

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At $8900 and with a history solid submission finishing, Inoue is a solid sub option. Most people won’t know this guy, so they will probably pass in favour of a more known finisher. He gives you a little more freedom if you play him in place of a $9000+ option.

Ji Yeon Kim +125 vs Lucie Pudilova -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Kim is another young fighter coming into the UFC, but her opponent is a little more established with a UFC bout already under her belt. Kim has had success bully opponents to the floor and then working for the finish. Pudilova showed she can hold her own in the clinch and her striking looks to be much better than Kim’s. I’m not a fan of how Kim walks forward into the fire to score takedowns. I’m also not sure she can do much else and could be in trouble if she can’t get the get it to the floor. Pudilova will defend early and then go to work with big shots. This could be a Silver play, but the more I look over the tape and the card, in general, I could slip her up into a Gold play.

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Pudilova gets the last spot on my team. She will be flying under the radar with most players not knowing who she is. The volume should be there and I can’t see Kim surviving a full 3-rounds with Pudilova landing against her porous striking D. Add her.

 

1. Holly Holm -520 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Walt Harris -302 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Alex Caceres -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Jon Tuck -285 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Justin Scoggins -485 

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6. Rafael Dos Anjos -255 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Li Jingliang -403 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Russell Doane +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Lucie Pudilova -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Dong Hyun Kim +260 

11. Naoki Inoue -257 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Andrei Arlovski +209 

1. Andrei Arlovski +209 

2. Dong Hyun Kim +260 

3. Russell Doane +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Lucie Pudilova -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Justin Scoggins to Win by Decision +120 

1. Ulka Sasaki to Win by Submission +700: 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med If Sasaki is going to win this fight it will be by submission. With his stats and Scoggins’s past issues on the mat, the +700 line is too good to pass up.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Holly Holm to Win By TKO/KO/DQ +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Holm has finished just a single opponent in the UFC, but what a finish Correia shares some similarities with the approach taken by Rousey. She will need to come forward to engage and Holm is going to set up counters as she does. It might take her into the 2nd or 3rd round, but Holm is going to land that left leg high kick against the questionable chin of the Brazilian.

Andrei Arlovski/Marcin Tybura Total Rounds Over 1.5 +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tybura has fought into the middle frame in each of his fights and this is a step up in competition. Andrei’s opening round losses have come against absolutely massive hitters. I don’t see Tybura on that level. Look for Arlovski to stick and move, work the clinch game, and even land a takedown or 2 which will push this fight into the second half. Tybura is also inclined to clinch up, which should create some time eating stalemates.

Rafael Dos Anjos to Win by Decision +106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tarec has been knocked out just once in 22 bouts and while RDA’s power has shown up more recently, I don’t know how it will translate to 170 pounds. A submission might be out of the question as Sponge is tough to take down. I think RDA outworks him for the duration. This bet might figure in more prominently my higher level bets.

Jon Tuck/Takanori Gomi 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Walt Harris to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -167 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I looked at the Under, which pays a little bit better and keeps Asker’s stopping skills in the game. I didn’t like it. Harris should win this fight, unless he tires and gets taken down. That probably won’t happen until the later stages anyway. Harris has looked much better in the last 2 fights and it could be because he is pacing himself a little bit more. Opening round knockout or something in the middle frame, it all works with this play.

Alex Caceres to Win By Decision +150 

Caceres can finish, usually by submission, but he lacks a strong wrestling game. I could see him dragging Dy to the mat and chaining something together, but more often than not he relies on his foe to shoot first. I like Caceres to work from the outside and use volume to grab the win.

[T]Justin Scoggins to Win by Decision +120[/Y] 

Pulling in a couple of decision props on this card. With the Over 1.5 set around the -220 mark, I like getting Scoggins at plus money on the card. Ulka has been finished, but it came against bigger competition. My view of this fight is Scoggins will want to avoid letting Ulka close the distance, so he’ll be countering and looking to outpoint him. I like Scoggins to use his kicking arsenal to maintain a cushion and take it on the cards.

Li Jingliang to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

Jingliang has been quietly knocking out opponents since he came into the UFC. Of his 4 wins, 3 have come by KO/TKO. Only 1 fight lasted beyond the opening round and that could be the case here. I am also taking into consideration that Li might grind down his smaller opponent and take advantage of a questionable gas tank. That might take him into round 2 or beyond. I like him to score the finish, maybe not early, but eventually.

Carls John De Tomas/Naoki Inoue 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Ji Yeon Kim/Lucie Pudilova 

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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