UFC Fight Night 104: Bermudez vs The Korean Zombie- “Alive and KOing”

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The Octagon returned to Texas and with it came the long awaited return of the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung as he took on Dennis Bermudez. TKZ hadn’t seen action since a 2013 title fight defeat. Also on the card, Jessica Andrade staked her claim to a Strawweight title shot with an impressive 3-round drubbing of the returning Angela Hill. For the first time in 2017, the Bet Pack failed to have a positive return despite a pair of upset picks to end the card and a 7-5 overall record. The night did feature 6 victorious underdogs, including 5 straight to end the show. Let’s take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from Saturday night.

The Good
  • Running it back to their TUF tournament battle, Tecia Torres put together another solid win to reaffirm her spot in the division. She didn’t have much to gain with the fight, but a lot to lose.
  • While he might not make a run at the title, Chas Skelly is an animal and a tough fight for the majority of the division.
  • Take my money now! Jessica Andrade put together a strong 15-minute performance, in a bout that will almost certainly put the Brazilian in a title fight. Angela Hill’s stock is also on the rise, despite the win, holding her own against an opponent that wrecked her previous opposition at Strawweight. Angela should find herself in the rankings soon.
  • Felice Herrig showcased her striking, routinely landing a stiff right hand and simply being the busier fighter. Grasso has been known as a slow starter in the past and she let two rounds pass her by before finding her urgency. Solid win for a Felice and the post-fight callout were excellent. I would rather see her face Waterson at this point, Herrig has more to gain from that pairing.
  • Welcome back Chan Sung Jung! In typical Korean Zombie fashion, Jung waded forward, took the best his opponent had to offer, and then put him away. With the win, KZ launches himself back into the rankings and should have some big fights ahead of him. I’m not ready to toss him into the title chase just yet, but a fight with Ricardo Lamas or maybe Cub Swanson would be fantastic.

The Bad/Y]

  • After a pair of losses to start his UFC run, it only took Khalil Rountree just under 60-seconds to pick up his first victory. Those knees left Jolly in a bad way.
  • It wasn’t a great fight, especially rounds 2 and 3. Ricardo Ramos hurt Tanaka early, but largely coasted against an opponent that seemed unwilling to push the pace. That fight could easily have been ruled a draw.
  • Size isn’t everything and Marcel Fortuna proved that by picking up his first career knockout of man that weighed roughly 50-pounds heavier. Hamilton failed to bring his physical advantages to bear, opting to wade forward and swing- he paid for it.
  • A nice win for Texas-native James Vick also feature an incredibly half-hearted effort from the formerly uber aggressive Abel Trujillo.
  • Once again, Dennis Bermudez had an opportunity to take that next step and was unable to do so. Even more concerning, was the conditions under which he lost. Bermudez isn’t done in the Top 15, but his title aspirations are most likely over.
And the Ugly
  • It was one of the more unassuming knockouts you are ever going to see. Niko Price was coming on in round 2 after a rough start, but finished the fight with a last second flurry that left his opponent crumpled along the cage. Initially, no one seemed to notice that Morono had been knocked out, but his failure to get to his feet brought the fight to its end.
  • A dominant performance for Curtis Blaydes marred by a devastating knee injury suffered by Adam Milstead. The corner of Milstead should have called the fight between rounds. Blaydes has a lot of upside going forward, no shame in his loss to Ngannou.
  • It wasn’t a good fight, but the judge’s decision was just plain ugly. Volkan Oezdemir looked great early, but his performance dropped off the table after that. OSP was the more active and effective fighter over the final two rounds, nearly finishing the fight late, but didn’t do enough to convince the judges that he had done enough. Bad fight, worse decision.
Final Thoughts

As much as I enjoyed seeing TKZ back in action, getting to watch Andrade fight for a full 15-minutes and not suffer a drop off in performance was my high-point of the card. She might still have to prove herself in the championship rounds, but her performance sets the stage for a fantastic title fight in the Strawweight division. The Bet pack fell short overall. The lock of the night, Torres by Decision, came through and so did a couple of dogs, but a few key upsets dug too deep a hole. Next week we crown a new Women’s Featherweight champion as the ladies continue to thrive in the post-Rousey title era.

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Draftkings Line up

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DraftKings
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Fighter 1: Anthony Hamilton $8700 
Fighter 2: Jessica Andrade $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Abel Trujillo $8100 
Fighter 4: Niko Price $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Daniel Jolly $7700 
Fighter 6: Chan Sung Jung $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Felice Herrig $7100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Curtis Blaydes $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Michinori Tanaka $8600 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Chan Sung Jung +174 vs Dennis Bermudez -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Welcome back Korean Zombie, it has been too long. The question is, will it impact his performance? It very well could. I still like him here. The combination of his aggression, volume striking, and reach will give Bermudez fits. Dennis has struggled tremendously with confident strikers that push the pace. In fact, he hasn’t beat any of note with the exception of a very questionable decision win over Holloway. If this fight lasts into the second half and specifically rounds 4 and 5, that favours Bermudez. Under ideal conditions, KZ would win this fight via stoppage in the first half. If he hasn’t finish Bermudez early, it’s because Dennis has controlled the fight from the onset. This tells me not to worry as much about the layoff. Still, it is a major concern here- Bronze play.

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I’ve got a couple expensive plays in my lineup, so KZ works perfectly based on budget and how this fight lines up. Bermudez’s chin and submission defense has been anything but rock solid. If KZ can land, he certainly can hurt and finish him. A desperation TD attempt from Bermudez could leave him open to a submission. At less than $8000 and with finish abilities against an opponent that can be finished- add him.

Alexa Grasso -303 vs Felice Herrig +280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Are we going to finish with a pair of upsets? Grasso looked good in her debut, but not that good considering she was facing Heather Jo Clark. Nothing against HJC, but she isn’t in the upper half of the division. Herrig is flawed, but I think her mat game is the key here. Grasso has looked vulnerable against opponent’s that focus on taking her down. If the threat is there, she isn’t nearly as aggressive. That will hurt her if Herrig can hold her own on the feet and score some key mat control time. I like Herrig to steal a close fight, Bronze play.

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Herrig has shown she can finish and is one of the cheapest options on the card. If you play her instead of Trujillo, it opens up the potential to swap out Jolly for Curtis Blaydes, which is a nice swap.

Abel Trujillo +100 vs James Vick -110 

This fight is a tight one and the line varies depending on where you are laying your money down. Trujillo’s cardio isn’t great and it is his power hungry approach that plays a big factor in his slowdowns. On the flipside, there are 2 massive vulnerabilities that will cost Vick here. His TDD is terrible. He has won a pair of fights where he gave up 4 takedowns against less than amazing wrestlers.  If Trujillo can take you down, he can do a lot of damage and the damage he can do from top position will be hard to overcome for Vick if they eventually return to their feet. Vick’s striking D is also a little subpar, despite his reach. His chin got exposed last fight and if Abel cracks him, he will be in trouble. I think Trujillo either stops him or gets the opening 2 rounds in the books and holds on. Silver play for Trujillo

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I have Abe in my lineup. He hits hard on the mat and the feet and will score takedowns, which will add points. At $8100, he is a solid play.

Ovince St. Preux -309 vs Volkan Oezdemir +289 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a pass. I gave Oezdemir a decent look. He can win this fight if he gets off to a strong start with his wrestling and OSP fades. Might be worth a counter bet.

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Nothing here. OSP could get the stoppage, but there are better places to spend your Fantasy cash.

Anthony Hamilton -185 vs Marcel Fortuna +169 

This is one of my favourite bets on the card. Most sites will probably have Hamilton between -200 and -220 maybe higher by fight time. I still like him. Fortuna is way undersized and too one-dimensional. Hamilton has his issues, but he should have no problem taking Fortuna down and busting him up. He could also opt to stay vertical and do damage as well. Either way, he wins this fight. Gold Play.

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The combination of takedowns and the potential for a finish makes Hamilton a must play. He has a solid record in longer fights, so this bout does go into the second half he will still be active. Add him.

Angela Hill +431 vs Jessica Andrade -475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play on the side here, but I love a prop bet option or 2. Check out prop section when it is completed.

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Love me some Andrade here. She wil throw a mass amount of significant strikes and takedowns will be there for the taking. A finish won’t be far behind once they hit the mat. She will be a popular pick, but she is a must have. The difference will be who we fill out the rest of the lineup with.

Adam Milstead +269 vs Curtis Blaydes -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Blaydes here. He hung in there with a monster of a man in Ngannou, fairing much better than more experienced fighters like Arlovski and Hamilton did. Milstead has some pop, but in both his debut and pre-UFC fights he has to pile up the damage to get his foe out of there. Blaydes can take a lot, as mentioned, and if he scores takedowns- Milstead’s striking will be stuck in neutral. Blaydes is a massive man that moves well and can wrestle- that all shows up here. Depending on the bundle, he will either see action in the Gold or Silver sections.

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Blaydes could find himself in your lineup if you use Herrig and Curtis over Jolly and Trujillo. It is an option, but he is a sub for me. Lots of potential though.

Chas Skelly -242 vs Chris Gruetzemacher +236 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m looking at Skelly in the same light as Blaydes. I like Blaydes a little more overall, but Skelly is there too. I feel his only letdown scenario here is his cardio. If he fades too quickly, Gruetzemacher could steal a decision. Skelly appears to simply be better in most key areas and his wrestling and capable submission game is the key here. I’m thinking either a Silver play or possibly an NP.

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Nothing here. At $8800 he is expensive. I think he has scoring potential both with takedowns and a finish. His volume isn’t bad either, but he falls into line behind several other similarly priced options.

Michinori Tanaka -140 vs Ricardo Ramos +130 

Tanaka’s style is tailor made to beat a fighter like Ramos. Ramos looks for finishes at all cost and if he can’t get it, he is going to find himself at a positional deficient. Tanaka is a very strong grappler in his own right and I see him either shutting down Ramos altogether or defending early and countering to a superior position, taking over as the fight progresses. I like Tanaka as one of my top plays- Gold baby.

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At $8600, I’m interested as I think Tanaka could slip in an RNC was Ramos tires and gives up his back looking for an ill-fated finish. He would be a low-profile addition to your lineup, that most people will overlook because of his recent decision heavy run.

Bec Rawlings +255 vs Tecia Torres -277 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a rematch dating back to their TUF days. All indications are that Rawlings is the same fighter and  Torres is better. The result should be the same, potentially a little more one-sided. As much as playing Torres straight up isn’t a bad idea, I can’t help myself in playing a prop to sizeably improve your odds. I will be on Torres by decision, most likely in the Gold Play section.

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Torres isn’t a finisher, she will score points with volume and takedowns, but I will pass.

Alex Morono +105 vs Niko Price -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Morono took advantage the kick-heavy arsenal and lack of solid cardio that Moontasri presented. Price is more aggressive and more diversified. I look for him to take a similar approach to his Thatch fight and jump on the takedowns early. Morono has struggled in the past with opponents that put him on his but early and often. He also tends to sit back a little which will allow Price to push the pace at his preferred tempo. Silver.

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Price has good finishing numbers and as mentioned he should find success with his takedowns. He only costs you $8200 to add to your list which is key considering the heavy price tags on the bigger hitters on this card. Add him.

Daniel Jolly +145 vs Khalil Rountree -151 

Starting with an upset. Jolly has been out action for a prolonged period of time, which can create rust. It can also leave some time for development. Many people are favouring Khalil on the basis of a superior camp, but I’ve heard from a reliable and respected source that he has been working at ATT. That is a big changed from his former camp. He’s a local, which helps and most importantly- he can wrestle. Prior to coming to the UFC he took a decision win based on takedowns and top control. Rountree is vulnerable there and if Jolly focuses there, he wins this fight. I like the dog against a clearly dangerous, but vulnerable fighter. Bronze Play.

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Jolly is cheap, which is a nice thing to have. He can finish or he can rack up points via the takedown. Both are options for scoring, maybe a combo of the 2. Add him to your lineup

 

1. Tecia Torres -277 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Jessica Andrade -475 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Anthony Hamilton -185 

4. Michinori Tanaka -140 

5. Ovince St. Preux -309 

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6. Curtis Blaydes -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Abel Trujillo +100 

8. Chas Skelly -242 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Niko Price -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Daniel Jolly +145 

11. Chan Sung Jung +174 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Felice Herrig +280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Chan Sung Jung +174 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Daniel Jolly +145 

3. Felice Herrig +280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Abel Trujillo +100 

5. Niko Price -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Volkan Oezdemir +289: 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med Volkan is a decent fighter and OSP has some big vulnerabilities. If Oezdemir find success with his wrestling early and OSP slows in the second half- it could be all systems go for the upset. We also have to question where OSP’s head is at after that brutal knockout loss. At the very least, stay away from Ovince- the risk/reward is not here.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Chan Sung Jung/Dennis Bermudez Fight Does Not Go To Decision -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I didn’t want to play the under here simply because I feel it could take a little longer to grab the finish. KZ hasn’t fought in a long time, so it will be hard for him to carry his pace against a heavy hitter like Bermudez for a full 5-rounds. On the other side, Jung’s aggressive striking and capable submission game should have multiple opportunities to get Bermudez out of there before the final bell, most likely in the first 3-rounds. We won’t see the judges involved.

Anthony Hamilton to Win By TKO/KO/DQ +150 

Fortuna weighed in at 210 pounds. That is very low for the division, lower than I expected. Hamilton is a mountain of a man and uses that size fairly well. He will force Fortuna to work early for the takedown, tire him out, and then do damage from either top position or in the clinch. Hamilton can take a little time to mount the required offense to grab the finish, but he will get the job done.

Jessica Andrade to Win by Submission +170 

The TKO prop pays so well and is very tempting, but I expect to see Hill on her back too much in this fight to pass on the sub. While it wouldn’t be out of the question for Andrade to land enough offense to stop the fight, I expect to see Hill get caught in a scramble and tapped out. Souza has a couple near guillotines and if Andrade gets your neck, look out.

Adam Milstead/Curtis Blaydes 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Chas Skelly to Win Inside the Distance -103 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

“The Scrapper” only knows 1 gear and is always looking for the finish. Of his 4 UFC wins, 3 have come inside the distance. He showed against Alers he can finish an opponent with his striking and his submission game is incredibly dangerous. This is a step up for Gruetzemacher and a bit of a step back for Skelly. I consider the Under, but I will take a little big of a cutback to keep the entire fight open.

Michinori Tanaka to Win by Submission +400 

There is always a finish prop that jumps off the page at me on each card. Sometimes they hit and others they do not. Spicely, Oleinik, and OAM all cashed via sub props. I like Tanaka to do the same. They guy has been on a decision tear, but he has faced some pretty solid grapplers during that run. Ramos is skilled, but green and aggressive. He made mistakes looking for the finish in his only pro loss and got subbed as a result. Tanaka will defend him, break him down, and eventually submit a tired and/or defensively vulnerable opponent.

Bec Rawlings/Tecia Torres 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Morono/Niko Price 

See the Betting Scenario Section

Daniel Jolly/Khalil Rountree 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section

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