UFC Fight for the Troops 3: Results and Bet Pack

 

Scott Johnson

 

UFC Fight for the Troops 3 was low on big name talent and took a lot of flak from the fans, but the fighters responded in full force with a fantastic card top to bottom. The Troops in attendance were also a fantastic breath of fresh air, showing their appreciation for the efforts put forth inside the cage within limit to no undeserved boos. The ending of the night was fitting and brought the crowd to their feet. Kamikaze Overdrive continue to slump with a 6-7-0 record which is a bit of a letdown after such a long stretch of successful fights. The Kamikaze Overdrive Prediction Tournament II came to and end as well with the Canadian predictor ‘Card’ edging out his American counterpart ‘Maestro V’ in the tournament finals by a razor thin score of 80-77. Congrats to both competitors are a job well done and hopefully we will see them back in the third installment of the tournament. Let’s get to the fights.

Derek Brunson def. Brian Houston by submission

A quick start for Brunson, he caught Houston on the feet and put him away on the mat. The stoppage should help elevate his profile and it improves his UFC record to 2-0.

Seth Baczynski def. Neil Magny by Decision

A grinding back and forth fight, where Baczynski did just enough to get the nod. Back to back defeats in a stack division for Magny will probably spell the end of the line for the TUF semi-finalist.

Yancy Medeiros def. Yves Edwards by TKO

A tough defeat for a solid veteran. Yves losing to an unknown opponent like Medeiros could be enough to remove him for UFC.com and props to Yancy for the knockout win.

Lorenz Larkin def Chris Camozzi by Decision

Camozzi is durable, but that doesn’t always win you fights, especially against a striker on the level of Larkin. Camozzi’s grit probably keeps in employed for another bout, but Larkin should get a nice push up the ladder and maybe a bout with Tim Boestch could be put into motion.

Francisco Rivera def. George Roop by TKO

Rivera started strong rocking Roop, but then found himself in trouble on the mat. Roop looked like he was going to rally back, just like he did against Brian Bowles, but Rivera came out strong in round 2 and put the stamp on the win via knockout. Rivera is handful for most and should get a nice push up the ladder. Rivera vs Assuncao would be a great tilt.

Amanda Nunes def. Germaine de Randamie TKO

Nunes came out, stood with de Randamie and then did exactly what she needed to do by putting the Muay Thai champ on her back and not letting up with her full mount GnP. Nunes versus Jessica Andrade would be an absolute war.

Dennis Bermudez def. Steven Siler by Decision

Bermudez did in this fight, what many expected from him in his controversial win over Max Holloway. He was able to get inside, land some decent shots and drag the fight to the ground where he held the better position and threaten with subs. Siler showed heart and had his moments, but just not enough of them.

Bobby Green def. James Krause by TKO

In easily the most controversial bout of the night, Bobby Green harkened back to his Affliction bout with Dan Lauzon, where he landed multiple low blows early in the bout. Once again he deliver multiple shots south of the equator on his opponent, and was deducted a point after the second foul. Unfortunately, when a third borderline shot, struck the cup and crumpled James Krause to the canvas, veteran referee John McCarthy made a snap decision and call a TKO in favour of Green.‘Big’ John stated that the kick was a legal blow, but based on replays and the always boisterous Joey Rogan it did appear to catch enough of the cup to warrant the reaction from the already damaged Krause. This bout had a lot of potential and should have it play out in a soon to be had rematch.

Michael Chiesa def. Colton Smith by Submission

In a surprisingly entertaining battle, these two TUF champs went back and forth on the mat and in the clinch, both attempting near submissions until Michael Chiesa finally put Colton away with a well executed rear-naked choke. Smith has dropped back to back fights against fellow TUF champs which can’t sit well, while Chiesa rebounds with a nice win and continues to show how nice improvement in his game.

Rustam Khabilov def. Jorge Masvidal by Decision

In another entertaining bout, Rustam Khabilov moved to 3-0 in the UFC with a win over Jorge Masvidal. While Khabilov landed the most significant shot of the fight, a third round wheel kick the neck of Masvidal, the two 30-27 scores seems a little off with Masvidal landing the better shots while defending most of Khabilov’s attacks through the second round. Khabilov showed he can with without the use of his vaunted suplexes and another step up in competition is in order. For Masvidal this is a minor setback, but still an unfortunate one that will cost him in his rise up the ranks.

Yoel Romero def. Ronny Markes by KO

Romero is a great athlete and while his age may prevent him reaching his full potential, it will be fun to see how high he can go. He was far from flawless against Markes, but he landed the bigger and better shots, and then the one that ended the bout in the third round. Markes is no easy out and Romero showed good movement and while he was taken down a couple of times, he limited the damage done which none of Markes’s previous opponents were able to do.

Alexis Davis def. Liz Carmouche by Decision 

The Canadian came out strong, pressing the action and peppering her opponent with a heavy inside leg kick and simply outworking Carmouche while controlling the action. While Liz did bust Davis up, it wasn’t enough to turn the tide in her favour. Davis now positions herself for a potential title eliminator bout, possibly eyeing a bout with Jessica Eye who recently edge out former Champ Sarah Kaufmann who holds two wins over Davis.

Tim Kennedy def. Rafael Natal by KO

In a fitting finish to a fantastic event, Army Ranger Tim Kennedy floored Rafael Natal with a well placed left hook close to the end of the opening round. Natal started strong, with heavy legs, and looked to be on his way to winning the first frame before the finishing blow. Kennedy’s win brought his fellow Military men and women to their feet is a chant of USA. I did notice that Kennedy landed at least 2 hard punches while referee Herb Dean attempted to pull him off his fallen foe and in the wake of the Palhares/ Pierce leg lock incident it will be interesting to see if this is mentioned in media anywhere. I doubt it. With the win Tim will most likely get a step up in competition and the aforementioned Lorenz Larkin could be an option and so could rising contender Francis Carmont.

Final Thoughts…

This was a great overall night of fights and the winners will provide some interesting bouts going forward. The bet pack was not a total loss, but it was far from the profit producer that should be expected and I intend to do better next time. Thankfully, next time is right around the corner with UFC Fight Night 32 only a few days away.

 


UFC Fight for the Troops 3

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.01 x Bet: $110
Payout: $221.10
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Amanda Nunes $2.11
===================================================
Price: $2.11 x Bet: $80
Payout: $168.80
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.55 x Bet: $50
Payout: $127.50
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Rafael Natal $4.19
===================================================
Price: $4.19 x Bet: $35
Payout: $146.65
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Francisco Rivera $1.75
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $3.51 x Bet: $100
Payout: $351.00
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $6.27 x Bet: $35
Payout: $219.45
 
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Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Michael Chiesa $1.68
Selection 3: Amanda Nunes $2.11
===================================================
Price: $5.64 x Bet: $40
Payout: $225.60
 
===================================================
Parlay #8
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Rafael Natal $4.19
===================================================
Price: $25.25 x Bet: $20
Payout: $505
 
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Parlay #9- just too big to pass up, one can dream
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Rafael Natal $4.19
Selection 4: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 5: Michael Chiesa $1.68
Selection 6:
Selection 7:
Selection 8: Francisco Rivera $1.75
Selection 9:
===================================================
Price: $1975.03 x Bet: $30
Payout: $59250.90

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $225

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.01 x Bet: $60
Payout: $120.60
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 2: Francisco Rivera $1.75
===================================================
Price: $3.69 x Bet: $50
Payout: $184.63
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Michael Chiesa $1.68
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price:$5.37 x Bet: $40
Payout: $214.80
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $6.27 x Bet: $30
Payout: $188.10
 
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Liz Carmouche $1.48
Selection 2: Francisco Rivera $1.75
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $15.61 x Bet: $25
Payout: $390.25
 
Parlay #6- just too big to pass up, one can dream
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Rafael Natal $4.19
Selection 4: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 5: Michael Chiesa $1.68
Selection 6:
Selection 7:
Selection 8: Francisco Rivera $1.75
Selection 9:
===================================================
Price: $1975.03 x Bet: $20
Payout: $39500.60

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Francisco Rivera $1.75
Selection 3: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $11.80 x Bet: $20
Payout: $232.00
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Michael Chiesa $1.68
Selection 2: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $9.04 x Bet: $15
Payout: $135.60
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Amanda Nunes $2.11
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $10.43 x Bet: $15
Payout: $156.45
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Derek Brunson $1.45 vs

If you don’t know who Brian Houston is, you are not alone. He is a can crusher, but he is relatively new to MMA so he isn’t to be written off just yet. Brunson needs to wrestle to win and Houston is a physical specimen with a good sprawl. If he can defend the TDAs and either blast away on the feet or turn D into O and put Brunson on his back for some GnP he could score the knockout. Houston has some value here and is unknown and we all know how I like to take my shots in thes type of early fights with lesser known fighters involved. I’ll take a shot with B-Hou on a mid-ranged single bet.

Seth Baczynski $1.69 vs

I really felt Seth had some potential, with his physical traits and in cage capabilities, he looked like he could hold his own in most situations. The Pierce loss was nothing to be concerned with, Pierce is a tough opponent for most, but the KO versus Melancon was not good. I am not that high on Magny either, but I think his reach and striking capabilities will give him a slight edge here and makes him the proper play. If Seth had better takedown numbers then I could consider him, but the combo of his wrestling and Magny’s defense should be enough to keep him out of a dominant position. This fight won’t be a thing of beauty, but I like a smaller sized single bet on Magny or double him up a decent favourite on the card like Rivera or a smaller sized dog like Krause.

Yves Edwards $2.41 vs

Is this the end of the line for Yves? He is a veteran of the sport, but a loss here and I can see the UFC cutting ties. If he does get cut following a defeat he should have no problem picking up a contract with Bellator or WSOF if he does want to continue. I actually expected a little more parity in this line, and while I picked Yancy from a betting standpoint he isn’t the greatest option on the table. I might consider using him in a single parlay bet just for diversity purposes, but nothing beyond that.

Chris Camozzi $3.12 vs

Lorenz is my bet here, as I just don’t see how Camozzi wins this fight short of freak accident/ mistake. That being said, the cash is better invested elsewhere, so while I am confident I will be passing on this bout for betting purposes.

Amanda Nunes $2.11 vs

I wasn’t sure how this line would open, but I don’t have any complaints. What this bout comes down to is the grappling game- offense vs defense. If Nunes can get this fight to the mat she is the front runner. If they stay on the feet, de Randamie is the better striker, but the gap in talent isn’t that significant. I would suggest a mid-sized bet on Nunes, as she should have the aggression and physicality to put de Randamie on her back with consistency and the ability to hold her own on the feet enough to make the grappling exchanges the most significant aspect of the fight. If de Randamie can either clip her or survive the early attack she could finish either a tired or hurt opponent, but I see Nunes doing too much on the mat with her top game to consider backing the Dutch striker.

Dennis Bermudez $1.57 vs

Do you know when I say I was upset with the way the odds came out for a fight? Yeah that is not he case here, they played these ones out right where I expected they would be. Bermudez is scrappy, but if he can’t get on the inside he isn’t that effective. He was gifted a decision in his last fight. I miss the call, leaving with about 2 minutes left in the fight and was shocked to hear when I arrived at my destination that DB got the W. Yuck, but I did pick him so it was a good for me, but bad for the sport. The fact that Bermudez gets hurt pretty much every time he steps into the cage is a major concern, especially with Siler’s finishing rate. Siler needs to work him on the outside, use the clinch and sub attempts to nullify him on the inside and beat Bermudez up. I think that Bermudez’s past submission issues are weighing on him, as every time Holloway threaten with one he broke contact almost right away. I like this fight, I am not saying that Bermudez can’t or wont win, but I think that Siler has a great chance- he has all the tools to get the job done and the value to make him a worthwhile bet. Again, with the number of upsets that I am forecasting for this event it is probably better to spread your cash around so a mid-sized bet would be best here.

Francisco Rivera $1.75 vs

Can Georgie make it 3 upsets in a row? Let’s hope not. I have said all along that this guy doesn’t get enough credit for what he is capable of, but I didn’t see him TKOing Bowles. Rivera is a strong striker and should be able to overcome the reach/ height of Roop, as long as he doesn’t gas out in a longer fight he should be good to go. Roop is chinny. Bowles hurt him early, Hominick and Swanson stopped him, and Rivera is more then capable of putting a stamp on him. Rivera has some excellent value here and should be your #1 parlay partner pick. When you are looking to put together your 2 and 3 fight parlays, Rivera should be your back bone.

Bobby Green $1.78 vs

Green’s grappling D combined with how crafty Krause can be on the mat is what this fight comes down to. Green is more then capable of holding his own on the feet with Krause, and those exchanges should be quite good, but I just see James controlling him on the mat either with a stifling body lock or controlling top game. Even if Bobby takes Krause down, the WEC vet has some amazing sweeps from the bottom that often result in full mount, which is never a good trade-off. With 7 upset picks on this card, there are a lot to choose from as far as value bets are concerned, but I see this one coming close to the top. I would think one of your bigger bets on the night should be on ‘The’ James’ Krause.

Michael Chiesa $1.68 vs

Smith is very raw, he does have good grappling, but unless he is in a position to use it- it doesn’t count for much. Additionally, if Chiesa gaining the upper hand with his slick submission fighting makes Smith’s grappling a non-issue, that is just as big. I think that this fight will spend a lot of time on the feet and in that department I was impressed with the success that Chiesa had against Masvidal, while I felt Smith still needed a lot of work on the feet based on his last bout. Add in the big reach advantage of Chiesa and the speed advantage that Smith will face dropping down from 170 and that is a major swing in Chiesa’s favour. If Smith is able to overpower Chiesa that of course would be another thing, but I just don’t see it happening. I like Chiesa as part of a main parlay bet, he has a good number and gives a good kick back when teamed up with even a mid range fav.

Rustam Khabilov $1.54 vs

This line is a product of Khabilov getting a tonne of credit for his quick UFC start and Masvidal not getting the respect he deserves. Khabilov holds wins over an inexperience TUF competitor and a guy who hadn’t fought in over 2 years along with having a minimal amount of pro fighting experience. In his bout with Yancy Medeiros, Rusty was getting tagged with some decent shots, until Yancy went down with the injury. Masvidal has some of the best striking in the business, a good wrestling game, and a lot of experience. He is going to need to whether the storm early, but Jorge should be able to set the pace after things settle down. If Masvidal can circle away and strike while moving backwards and then change things up and be aggressive he will make it hard for Rustam to establish his grappling. Remember Jorge went 5 with Melendez, and while they weren’t that impressive, it is still a big deal to gain that type of experience. I think he is a great single bet, but with the rest of the card not posted yet I can’t say where he ranks in on the value list. Stay tuned.

Ronny Markes $2.40 vs

Markes’s success has been based on his ability to neutralize his opponents with a strong wrestling game. Well, Yoel Romero has a very strong wrestling game (Olympic Silver Medalist and multi World Championship podium finishes) and while he untested in MMA he is still a very good athlete that will be difficult for Markes to wall and stall. I was a little letdown by the line, I felt Markes had done enough to at the least earn a little more respect then this, but what can you do? I suggest playing Romero as part of your parlays, mix him up with a variety of different partners, but also make sure to have plenty of plays without him involved as he is till a major question mark with only a few pro fights under his belt.

Liz Carmouche $1.48 vs

I was hoping to get a little more value here on Carmouche, but that’s not the case and the line isn’t moving in that direction either. This should be an entertaining scrap and you might be able to score a decent return on the fight of night bet, (Bermudez vs Siler should be the favourite though). I think that Carmouche’s size will do enough to control Davis on her back and prevent her from moving into a dominant position. Carmouche hits hard and should be the stronger girl and that will show up big in a long grueling fight. She has been submitted in 2 of her 3 losses which does create an interesting scenario with Davis’s sub skills, but one was by a very strong former Featherweight and current champ Ronda Rousey and the other game after dominating the previous champion Marloes Coenen for almost an entire bout (she needs to come to the UFC at 135 soon). I think Carmouche should be used on your 2 and 3 fight combos, but shop around for the best price.

Rafael Natal $4.19 vs

These odds are varied, with the $4.19 being at the high end of the spectrum. Regardless, Natal is the heavy dog across the board. I’m not sold on Tim Kennedy, he’s a hard worker and can out grappler less then talented grapplers but who has he beat that is at this level? Lots of people will point to the Roger Gracie win as a sign of his skill on the mat, but I disagree. I look at the old adage of “if you punch a black belt in the face he becomes a Brown belt, and so on” combined that with Gracie’s horrid cardio and Kennedy won the fight based on those scenarios. Natal has great MMA grappling and his striking doesn’t get near the credit it deserves. Kennedy will be amped to headline in front of his fellow military men and women, but that could play against him as well taking him off his game by trying to do too much. I think the odds should be much closer together, so we are getting value based on these figures and despite the short notice, I like Natal here to do just enough to squeak this one out. I’m not 100% sure, but I think that this fight is a 3 rounder because of the short notice, which takes Kennedy’s potential late fight cardio advantage out of the equation. With Natal paying so well, you could probably get away with a mid-sized bet and still get a decent payout.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2.

3. Francisco Rivera $1.75

4.

5. Liz Carmouche $1.48

====================

6. Michael Chiesa $1.68

7. Amanda Nunes $2.11

8.

9.

10. Rafael Natal $4.19

11.

12.

13.


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record:

Best Prediction Record:

Worst Prediction Record:

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

MAIN CARD

Tim Kennedy (5-2-0) vs. Rafael Natal (4-0-0)

Liz Carmouche (2-0-0) vs. Alexis Davis (2-0-0)

Ronny Markes (1-2-0) vs. Yoel Romero (0-2-0)

Rustam Khabilov (2-0-0) vs. Jorge Masvidal (3-3-0)

Michael Chiesa (2-1-0) vs. Colton Smith (0-2-0)

PRELIMINARY CARD

Bobby Green (2-1-0) vs. James Krause (1-0-0)

Francisco Rivera (2-0-0 1NC) vs. George Roop (2-4-0)

Dennis Bermudez (5-0-0) vs. Steven Siler (1-5-0)

Amanda Nunes (1-0-0) vs. Germaine de Randamie (2-0-0)

Chris Camozzi (5-2-0) vs. Lorenz Larkin (2-0-0 1NC)

Yves Edwards (5-1-0) vs. Yancy Medeiros (1-0-0)

Seth Baczynski (4-1-0) vs. Neil Magny (1-1-0)

Derek Brunson (1-1-0) vs. Brian Houston (0-0-0)

 


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.01 I wouldn’t be shocked if this number changes before the fights begins, keep an eye on it to avoid losing out on some value.
2. Amanda Nunes $2.11 Kedzie was undersized compared to de Randamie and was still able to take her down and win round 2, Nunes is strong and will have more success, more often leading to the win.
3. $2.55 Masvidal has experience and a significant striking edge, not to mention more then serviceable grappling. If Khabilov gets by him he is a real threat, but two wins over relative unknowns isn’t quite enough to earn him the nod as a heavy fav or this type of opponent.
4. $4.19 Many people would like to point out that Natal doesn’t hold any real impressive wins in the UFC, but neither does TK and for me he has only faced 2 well rounded opponents (Jacare was stilling figuring out the striking), and he lost to them both. Natal will shock a few people here. $4+ really?
5. $2.46 There are paths for both men to win this fight, but I think that Siler is being significantly undervalued, or Bermudez is being overvalued or a combo of both.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Yves Edwards $2.41 I can admit that I was a little shocked that Yves was this heavy of a dog, so I might consider a small play on him and if that is the case then leave Yancy off your cards all together. Dealer’s choice.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Seth Baczynski/

Chris Camozzi/

Francisco Rivera/

Liz Carmouche to win by Decision- I don’t foresee her beating Davis by sub or TKO, as Davis is just too scrappy, but I think Carmouche will do enough to win this one hands down.