UFC 226 & TUF 27 Finale- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Stipe Miocic $8900 
Fighter 2: Gokhan Saki $8400 
Fighter 3: Paulo Costa $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Paul Felder $7400 
Fighter 5: Curtis Millender $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Drakkar Klose $7200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Michael Chiesa $8600 
Fighter 2: Dan Hooker $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Daniel Cormier +190 vs Stipe Miocic -200 

I’m shocked that DC weighed in where he did. I think that hurts him, makes him slower and he needs to be the faster man here. Even if Stipe gets taken down early, I expect him to work his way back up, defend the takedown and take the fight over. Something similar to what we saw with Gus/DC. The difference will be that when Miocic lands, he is going to hurt DC and finish him. I had this line closer -260 for the HW champ. Gold play for Stipe.

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We have seen DC hurt by Gus, hurt by Rumble, and finished by Jones. Stipe is another animal. He will finish DC and prove to him that moving up a weight class at age 39 and relying on pressure and durability is a mistake. Add him.

Derrick Lewis +305 vs Francis Ngannou -320 

I am going to pass here. Francis is on the rebound and while I think he wins- the value isn’t there.

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I thought about adding him and he probably gets the finish but I will invest elsewhere.

Mike Perry +138 vs Paul Felder -149 

Perry has been exposed, but he is switching camps and Felder is coming in on short notice and moving up a division. I originally had Felder in my Silver section, but with so many different unknowns here he got cut back to the Bronze section. He needs to be technical and he needs to be quick. Once Perry gets behind, he will revert to his old self and start swinging for the fence. Felder can’t let his guard down, but he has all the tools to win this fight. Bronze play.

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Felder is very cheap and if Perry becomes a walking punching bag, the stats could pile up. There is also a chance for a finish as the damage has been piling up for “Platinum” and it will catch up with him eventually. Add him.

Anthony Pettis +135 vs Michael Chiesa -145 

The weight cut issues and how bad Chiesa looked is concerning. He needs to be healthy tomorrow night for me to feel super comfortable backing him. He was a fighter that was trending towards a Gold play, but all things considered, he has dropped to a Silver play. Chiesa’s ground game is the key here. Take Pettis down and keep him there. Pettis struggles with his TDD and Chiesa is a very capable grappler. Silver Play.

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I have Chiesa as a spare. The takedown points should be there and if he gets this fight down as often and for as long as I expect, an RNC finish is a real possibility. Mix him in for variation.

Gokhan Saki -128 vs Khalil Rountree +120 

This fight screams violence. I expect better things for Saki from a conditioning standpoint. He was making his UFC debut, it was his 2nd MMA fight ever, and he had not fought in any form for roughly 2 years. Rountree is going to fight his style of fight which plays directly into Saki’s wheelhouse. Rountree opens up too much when attacking and unless he gets the early finish, he will be gassed before round 1 is done. Saki is a Silver play for me.

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Gokhan’s elite level kickboxing and affordable price against a fellow striker is more than enough for me to add him to the lineup. If he wins, it will be by finish. Add him.

Paulo Costa -380 vs Uriah Hall +340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a pass for me, at least with a straight up bet. Hall is still a very dangerous striker and he will have a massive reach advantage. He is also the best striker that Costa has faced. This line is not worth a second look.

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Conversely, when Costa wins, he wins by knockout and usually in the opening round or at least first half of the fight. That is the perfect scenario for a DK lineup. I had him around $9600 so we are saving a bit of cash. Add him.

Raphael Assuncao -165 vs Rob Font +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Is this the fight that Assuncao slips up in? Maybe. Font is dangerous and lacks big name value. I still like Assuncao here. Font is taking a major step up in competition and the majority of wins have come over opponents with below average chins, gas tanks, and ground games. RA has none of that. This line opened around -270 and I had it closer to -220 so we are getting a significant amount of value here. Gold play.

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This fight is probably going the distance. Pass.

Drakkar Klose +160 vs Lando Vannata -170 

I went back and forth on this fight. I haven’t been that impressed with Vannata, but I felt Klose fought poorly against Teymur. When I re-watched Klose Teymur again I saw how frustrated he got with Teymur’s unwillingness to stand right in front of him. Vannata won’t use as much footwork, but he will use head movement to slip and rip. Klose tends to land in the 50 strike range and needs a couple of takedowns to win in fights that still turn out to be close. Vannata should connect anywhere between on between 80 and 100 strikes in a fight like this with solid TDD. Similar to Assuncao, I had Vannata as a bigger favourite, closer to where he opened up. This line is getting closer together and that is perfect for us. I had Lando close to a Silver play, but he fits in nicely in my Bronze section instead.

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Klose is actually getting the call to my Fantasy team. After loading up my top 5, he was the best option left for my 6th fighter. If Lando underperforms, which is possible (hence the Bronze play), Klose can put up enough points to complement the other 5. Add him.

Curtis Millender -163 vs Max Griffin +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Is Griffin improving that much or is Perry just not that good? I think it is a little of both. Millender is not Perry. He fights longer than Griffin and he has more tools to offer. Max doesn’t have the type of ground game to trouble Millender and that should allow Curtis to settle into his comfort zone. This line ranges between -160 and -190 which are all playable bets here. I think Griffin’s high profile win against a much different fighter is keeping this line closer then it should be. Millender is a Gold Play.

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If Griffin engages CM on the feet, there is a high likelihood that Millender puts him away. Look for Millender’s knee strikes to play a big role and Griffin launches forward. Add him.

Dan Hooker -115 vs Gilbert Burns +111 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This stands to be a good fight. I went back and forth on this one. I’m still not sold on Burns’ ability to deal with pressure and power of a good striker. Hooker has looked very good at 155, but he hasn’t faced a grappler of this level. One of these has to give. Even if Burns wins round one with top control, unless he gets the finish, Hooker is going to wear him down. Burns tends to back off and shell up with the big shots start flying. He will get tired and Hooker will light him up. With the unknown elements I mentioned at the start this fight joins a solid trio of Bronze bets.

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When Hooker wins, he wins by stoppage. I think he can do it here against a fading Burns, maybe even before he fades. I have him as a spare.

Emily Whitmire +200 vs Jamie Moyle -185 

Moyle is the better fighter both on the feet and on the mat. She has the volume to outwork Whitmire and the wrestling to either take her down or force her to stand. Whitmire is moving back to her old weight class, but it won’t make a difference here. Silver play for Moyle.

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Probably going the distance. Pass.

1.Stipe Miocic -200 

2. Raphael Assuncao -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Paulo Costa -380 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Francis Ngannou -320 

5. Curtis Millender -163 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Jamie Moyle -185 

7. Gokhan Saki -128 

8. Dan Hooker -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Michael Chiesa -145 

10. Paul Felder -149 

11. Lando Vannata -170 

 

1. Dan Hooker -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Gokhan Saki -128 

3. Raphael Assuncao -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Curtis Millender -163 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Paul Felder -149 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +170 

Heavyweight is a whole other animal and if Gus can hurt Cormier, Stipe can as well. I just don’t see a bloated DC being able to get inside the reach of Stipe without eating a couple of big shots. If Stipe can connect, he will put Daniel down, and put him down hard. Cormier’s pressure and durability reliant approach will not fair well here. I love this play and really anything over -145 is worth a look.

Francis Ngannou Wins inside the Distance -196 

I want to keep both forms of a finish in play here. Unless Lewis gets on top, he is seriously outgunned. Ngannou is bigger, faster, hits hard, and is more skilled. Lewis doesn’t deal well with pressure and once the fists start flying he is going to shutdown. Not plus money, but a much better option for this fight.

Gokhan Saki/Khalil Rountree Total Rounds Under 1.5 -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This keeps the finishing skills of both men in play. I expect both men to go for it early which could lead to a quick finish or one or both exhausting themselves. If that is the case we might hit the over, but I can’t see these guys eating the type of heat they can throw to the point of gassing without someone going down.

Paulo Costa/Uriah Hall 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenarios.

Raphael Assuncao to Win by Decision -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With 7 of his last 9 UFC fights going the distance, Assuncao is a decision machine. His 2 finishes have come over a couple of lower level fighters abd while Font was submitted by Munhoz- he still a very durable fighter himself. I like this play to add a little more punch to your Assuncao bet.

Curtis Millender to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +270 

This line surprises me, but it is probably a surface view play considering Millender only has 6 career knockout wins compared to 9 by decision. If you take a deeper dive into his record you will see that 4 of those 6 knockouts have come over his last 5 fights. He is learning how to use his tools and physical gifts to the best of his ability. Griffin is tough but is style and lack of a ground game opens him up to what Millender does best.

Dan Hooker/Gilbert Burns 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Emily Whitmire/Jamie Moyle 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Brad Tavares $8000 
Fighter 2: Joe Giannetti $8600 
Fighter 3: Alessio Di Chirico $7400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Montana De La Rosa $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Oskar Piechota $9000 
Fighter 6: Alex Caceres $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Brad Tavares +113 vs Israel Adesanya -124 

I had Vettori in the last fight and he nearly pulled it off. Tavares has all the tools to pull off the upset. My concern here is that he is either too comfortable with his striking and that gets him in trouble- especially with his chin. Nonetheless, I expect BT to fight a smart fight- clinch, takedown, grind, and exhaust Israel. Take his striking out of the equation. The foot injury is a little concerning, Silver Play for Brad.

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Over 5 rounds, Tavares should be able to find success with is takedowns- especially if IA starts to get tired. The takedowns will score and so will the top position strikes. I wouldn’t even rule out a stoppage in the later stages. Add him.

Joe Giannetti -150 vs Mike Trizano +120 

The line is enticing, but we are stilling flying partially blind here with respect to what these fighters are capable of. Giannetti’s striking is a little undervalued and his opportunistic submission skills make him a constant threat. At anything below -200 I will use him in a Bronze section play.

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His aforementioned ability to finish on the mat and an affordable $8600 price tag makes him a solid addition to your lineup.

Brad Katona -225 vs Jay Cucciniello +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really haven’t been impressed with Cucciniello. He basically lost his way to the finals. Katona probably cuts to 135 after this fight, but his skill and speed advantage should be good enough here. Bronze play.

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No play here.

Alex Caceres -130 vs Martin Bravo +123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Caceres needs this one and if he gets past the opening frame this is his fight to win. Bravo is the type of fighter that is going to struggle with the length and movement of AC. Caceres is the most capable and experienced fighter that Martin has faced. I like Caceres in the Gold section here. The line has hardly fluctuated at all with it sitting primarily in the -130 to -135 range, I like that in a favourite- consistency.

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Caceres is a known commodity and active wherever the fight goes. I could see him wrapping up a sub if the situation presents itself. At $8300, he has potential in a couple different point producing areas. Add him.

Roxanne Modafferi +164 vs Barb Honchak -170 

I like Barb here. She represents the ceiling that Roxy hasn’t been able to break through as Honchak is a championship calibre fighter as she proved in Invicta. BH’s wrestling is better and she will grind Roxy down. I still expect that this will be a close fight, but I give it to the girl who has been more successful in recent fights and won their first encounter. Gold Play for Honchak

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Pass.

Alessio Di Chirico +148 vs Julian Marquez -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like the dog here. Marquez is fun to watch, but flawed. He eats too many shots and his gas tank isn’t good. Di Chirico needs to be careful early, but once he is able to weather the storm this will be his fight to win. He needs to be defensive and then make the jump to the offensive, especially with his takedowns. I like the fighter more suited to fight a full 3 rounds. Bronze play.

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The Italian gets the add to the lineup. He is cheap, should land some decent volume, score takedowns against a defensively flawed opponent, and possibly pick up a finish. Add him.

Montana De La Rosa -172 vs Rachael Ostovich +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

WMMA is still a developing game. The key here is to find the skill set that is going control the fight. That should be the wrestling of MDLR. Of course, it could put her in the line of the sub-game of Ostovich, but it could also force them to strike. De La Rosa has a sizeable reach advantage and should be the better striker as well.

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De La Rosa’s submission game and wrestling makes her a solid candidate for your lineup. Look for her to grind Ostovich down until she gets her in position to snatch the finish.

Luis Pena -324 vs Richie Smullen +310 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here. Lopsided odds and a pair of relatively unproven fighters.

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Nope.

John Gunther +125 vs Allan Zuniga -160 

Gunther seems to have gotten by on durability and heart. That won’t last long at this level. He didn’t have a lot of success on the show and I’m not sure that will change here. Zuniga is still a little rough around the edges, but I feel he hits hard enough to make Gunther pay for walking forward and using his face to catch punches. Zuniga gets an add in the Bronze section.

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Pass.

Matt Bessette -160 vs Steven Peterson +153 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This stands to be a fun fight. Ultimately, Bessette is just the more refined fighter. His head movement should defuse the forward aggression and brawling nature of Peterson. If Peterson tries to take him down, look for Matt to defend and then attack off of his back if planted. I’d like to see him win at this level before I go too hard, but a Silver play makes sense to me.

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Peterson is too durable to bank on Bessette getting the finish. Pass.

Gerald Meerschaert +195 vs Oskar Piechota -212 

I like Meerschaert, but I think Piechota does what he does- only better. This should be a fun scrap. I originally had Piechota in my Bronze section, but we have better feel for him than any of the TUF guys at this point. He gets the call to the Silver group.

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I like Piechota’s chances of finishing Meerschaert on the ground. If not, I like his chances of scoring points via takedowns and advances. Add him.

Tyler Diamond N/A vs Bryce Mitchell N/A 

The line isn’t up yet for this fight, Diamond is the favourite on DK which makes sense. If the line is sub -180 I would consider him in a Bronze bet to create diversity or just leave it off altogether.

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Nope.

 

1. Barb Honchak -170 

2. Montana De La Rosa -172 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Oskar Piechota -212 

4. Matt Bessette -160 

5. Alex Caceres -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Brad Tavares +113 

7. Brad Katona -225 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Alessio Di Chirico +148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Joe Giannetti -150 

10. Luis Pena -324 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Allan Zuniga -160 

12. Tyler Diamond 

1. Alessio Di Chirico +148 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Brad Tavares +113 

3. Alex Caceres -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Matt Bessette -160 

5. Joe Giannetti -150 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Roxanne Modafferi/Barb Honchak 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Montana De La Rosa/Rachael Ostovich 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Matt Bessette to Win by Decision +156 

Peterson is pretty darn durable and Bessette has gone the distance 12-times in his career- winning 7. I like the way these guys matchup and unless someone hits a home run, we see the scorecards with Bessette edging him out.

Gerald Meerschaert/Oskar Piechota 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Tyler Diamond/Bryce Mitchell

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White