UFC 225: Whittaker vs Romero 2- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Rafael Dos Anjos $8200 
Fighter 2: Andrei Arlovski $6900 
Fighter 3: Rashad Coulter $8700 
Fighter 4: Mike Jackson $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Anthony Smith $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Charles Oliveira $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Megan Anderson $7300 
Fighter 2: Robert Whittaker $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Dan Ige $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 

Robert Whittaker -220 vs Yoel Romero +230 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Romero missing weight and shelving the title fight sucks! These guys will still be going 5-rounds which is a good thing for Whittaker. I will be interested to see if the public bets heavy on Romero knowing the recent track record of fighters that miss weight. It could be worth waiting to see if Whittaker’s value increases. I like Whittaker as part of my Gold play, but more as a complimentary piece then a central play.

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I passed here. Whittaker is expensive and I see this fight going the distance.

Colby Covington -120 vs Rafael Dos Anjos +130 

I love RDA here. I am shocked that he is coming in as the dog. CC is taking a sizeable step up in competition by facing RDA who is a complete fighter. CC has to get this fight to the floor which won’t be easy and he’ll be under attack from a very dangerous striker. I think people are buying too much into the size factor here. RDA is a Gold play, my biggest bet of the night.

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RDA is a must play. He is affordable. He has 5 rounds to put up points. And he is a capable finisher against a guy that has struggled on the feet when put under pressure. Add him.

Holly Holm -150 vs Megan Anderson +165 

This is a pick that a lot of people are questioning. I get it. Anderson is far from a technical striker like Holm, few are, but Holly has lost to multiple lesser strikers. Anderson is big and aggressive. That approach is going to give Holly trouble. She has had issues with fighters that come forward, not recklessly, but in an aggressive and calculated approach. Holly’s tendency to sit back and wait will let Megan outwork her and her physicality will make it hard for Holm to create separation when they tie up. It is a debut, but I feel Megan gets it done against a fighter that is getting up there in ag age. Bronze Play.

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Anderson could finish Holly. She hits hard and could turn this fight into a brawl where the finish could materialize. I have her as a spare to be added in to create some diversity.

Andrei Arlovski +210 vs Tai Tuivasa -200 

I really like AA here, but we need to get through round one. Andrei is fighting more strategically, so I want to see him come out looking to clinch and use takedowns against Tuivasa. TT is vulnerable on the mat and untested beyond round 1. This is a massive step up for TT without even considering that he is fighting outside of his home for the first time in his career. The line on AA is moving down in value hitting the +180 range on some sites- it is still a solid play. Silver bet.

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AA makes the cut for a couple of reasons. He is very cheap and frees up the cash needed to buy big elsewhere. Normally I would look at this fight and see AA taking a grinding decision, which is possible, but I think he can finish TT if his cardio fails. If not, the takedowns should be there for AA to pick up the points.

CM Punk +185 vs Mike Jackson -183 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Jackson has combat experience. Punk does not. Their records are the same, but Jackson is in a much better spot. Regardless, I won’t invest much in this fight as we really don’t know what to expect. Jackson by finish might be a better option because if he is winning, he is most likely going to put for the former WWE champ away. Bronze play.

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For the same reason I mentioned above, Jackson is in my lineup. If he wins, he should finish him. Add him.

Alistair Overeem +167 vs Curtis Blaydes -165 

Overeem got violently destroyed in his last fight which definitely is playing a role here. He opened as the favourite and has climbed in value ever since. If Blaydes can’t get him down, I don’t feel he is ready to deal with Overeem on the feet. This fight almost made the cut as a Gold play, but instead, I made in the centrepiece of my Silver plays. The steel of the night might be a prop bet option regarding this fight.

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Blaydes is very tough and has been hit with some big shots. I don’t see Overeem scoring the finish unless he does it with knees to the body. I passed here because of the more calculated pace Overeem tends to set.

Carla Esparza +400 vs Claudia Gadelha -405 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope. This fight should be closer than the line indicates. Pass here. Maybe a prop option.

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Nothing doing here. Most likely going the distance.

Mirsad Bektic -215 vs Ricardo Lamas +220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Bektic, like Whittaker is going to be a Gold Play add-on piece. Lamas is a step up from Bektic and he has faced some very solid competition, far superior to anything that Mirsad has dealt with. Bektic’s value is dropping and at this point anything below -250 rules him out for me. Fortunately, most sites still have him between -220 and -240. He will work with one of my other Gold plays.

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Bektic could score the finish, but Lamas is a tough out. I will look elsewhere.

Chris De La Rocha +150 vs Rashad Coulter -125 

This could get ugly. Coulter is the more experienced fighter which is at the basis of this play. De La Rocha is pretty raw and very hittable. Coulter should be able to find the mark, but honestly, when you get a pair of low-level HWs anything can happen. That being said, his price is very solid and that gets him a bump from the Bronze section up to a Silver play.

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Coulter finishes and De La Rocha can be finished. If I am backing Coulter he wins this fight most likely in round 1 or early round 2 against a defensively vulnerable fighter. Add him.

Rashad Evans +235 vs Anthony Smith -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am really curious to see how Smith looks at 205. That 20-pound difference for a big man like him could really pay dividends. If he wins this fight, it really puts him on the map. Evans struggles with pressure which is what Smith will bring. He lacks the power to back Smith off and the volume to match him. His only path to victory here is his wrestling and he appears to have moved away from that. The last time someone pressured him, they took him out. I am still curious to see how Smith does in this division and the price isn’t great, so we will throw him into the Bronze section.

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Smith makes the cut in my Fantasy lineup. He is a finisher and facing a fighter that has been stopped on multiple occasions. Even if they go the distance, look for Smith to put up some decent volume. Add him.

Joseph Benavidez -200 vs Sergio Pettis +190 

Joe is coming back from an ALC injury which is always a concern. Pettis has looked and losing to Cejudo is not a knock on him. I expect this fight to be close with Joe doing enough with pressure and takedowns to earn a decision. We are getting some value here and he could creep into the -190 range before we are done. I will most likely play Joe in the Silver section as add-on play or I will turn him over as a prop bet in the Bronze or Wildcard section.

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No play here.

Charles Oliveira -130 vs Clay Guida +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Guida is at home and Oliveira is coming in on short notice. Clay has looked good in his last couple of fights, but I think Oliveira’s style is the key here. Clay will have issues with the distance, doesn’t hit hard enough to back CO off, and he won’t be able to go to the floor without being in danger. The movement in price has be good for us as Oliveira opened around -185. I normally don’t like going all in on a fight this early, but I feel I have a good handle on both of these guys. Gold Play for Do Bronx who most likely catches Clay with a sub.

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Oliveira is a solid fit at $8400. When he wins it is usually by finishes and Clay has a history of submission issues. Charles also has an underrated striking game. Add him.

Mike Santiago +115 vs Dan Ige -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With Ige’s grappling back and pressure, he should be able to overwhelm Santiago. Mike is scrappy, but he wears down and gives up bad positions. His history of submission defense issues is also a major red flag. Still, lots to learn about these guys, so solid Bronze Play for Ige.

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Ige is a spare and could easily be your first move to create a few different lineups. Despite his lack of success in his debut, he will score takedowns and I see him having a good shot at the finish. Play accordingly.

 

1. Claudia Gadelha -405 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Robert Whittaker -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Rafael Dos Anjos +130 

4. Joseph Benavidez -200 

5. Charles Oliveira -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Mirsad Bektic -215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Anthony Smith -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Dan Ige -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Mike Jackson -183 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Rashad Coulter -125 

11. Andrei Arlovski +210 

12. Alistair Overeem +167 

13. Megan Anderson +165 

1. Rafael Dos Anjos +130 

2. Andrei Arlovski +210 

3. Alistair Overeem +167 

4. Megan Anderson +165 

5. Charles Oliveira -130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Robert Whittaker/Yoel Romero 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Rafael Dos Anjos Inside the Distance +180 

RDA has finished good fighters before and he can do it by submission or with his hands. Colby is a solid fighter, but I do not like the way he was backtracking against Maia. RDA throws a solid left hand which is the same weapon he was getting cracked with. A lot of people are backing Colby based on his size, but look for RDA to use his speed and superior technique to get it done here. Over 5 rounds, he has a great chance to stop him.

Andrei Arlovski to Win by Decision +400 

This is a risk at Heavyweight, but there is very good value here. AA usually has 2 modes; KO/slugfest or grinding decision win. Based on his opponent and recent comments about fighting more strategically, I am looking at the latter. With 4 of his last 6 UFC wins coming on the score cards and TT 100% untested beyond round 1, look for AA to take him down or grind him into the cage, test his cardio, and limit the risk of getting knocked out.

Mike Jackson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +140 

This fight could become very sloppy if it gets into the second half. Hell, it would be a technical marvel even in the early stages. Jackson has a striking background and I fully expect to see him utilize it against a very stiff Punk. If he wins, he most likely finishes him inside of 2.

Alistair Overeem/Curtis Blaydes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Claudia Gadelha to Win by Decision -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a very reasonable play considering some books have her as high at -500 to win outright. Esparza is a tough cookie and has the wrestling cred to prevent Gadelha from continuously getting in a dominant position. In WMMA, where finishes don’t occur quite as often, backing a heavy favourite on the cards has been a consistent moneymaker. Make it pay.

Rashad Coulter to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +105 

My first thought here was Under 1.5, but at -170 or higher it is not worth it. Milstead put a beating on De La Rocha before he got the finish and Coulter might have to as well. I like give my guys the entire fight to get the finish when the price is that much better than the Under. This could be ugly, but even in the final round, when both guys are exhausted we would still be live and have a good chance to get the stoppage.

Joseph Benavidez to Win by Decision -110 

After choking out Elliott to start his winning streak, Joe has gone the distance in 5 straight wins. I am a little unsure how he will look after his time away, but I still think his style is similar to those that have troubled Pettis. A few takedowns and a slightly more active striking attack will be his keys victory.

Charles Oliveira/Clay Guida 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Mike Santiago/Dan Ige 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White