UFC 224: Nunes vs Pennington- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Kelvin Gastelum $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Aleksei Oleinik $8000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Lyoto Machida $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: John Lineker $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Ramzan Emeev $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Cezar Ferreira $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Warlley Alves $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Thales Leites $8300 
Fighter 3: Markus Perez $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Amanda Nunes -842 vs Raquel Pennington +760 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I gave Pennington a long look. I give her a better chance to win this fight than the odds indicate. I think a counter bet is in order. I will be looking at a prop option for Nunes, but the rest is a pass.

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She is very expensive and I am not sure she gets the finish here.

Kelvin Gastelum +133 vs Jacare Souza -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Big fight in the Middleweight division with 2 previous scenarios that most people are looking at. Is Souza going to replicate Weidman’s success and use his size and skill to beat KG on the floor. Or, is Kelvin going to be too quick and hit too hard for Souza. I like Kelvin here, Souza has had issues with quick athletic guys and most of his wins have come over slower paced opponents. Most, not all. Kelvin offers some solid dog money for a guy we know can use volume to win or power. I have him in my Gold Play.

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I do have Kelvin in my starting lineup. He has finished each of the ageing MW he has faced in Kennedy, Belfort, and Bisping. He also rocked and nearly KOed Weidman. Jacare can be finished and will struggle at home against the speed. Add KG for the win.

Amanda Cooper +211 vs Mackenzie Dern -239 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I believe that stat now sits at 10 of the last 11 fighters to miss weight have won their fight. Dern missed badly and if she gasses, she is going to struggle. Cooper is game, but vulnerable. I have this as a ‘No Play’ or possibly addon in the Bronze section. Nothing more.

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Pass here, very expensive despite the high likelihood of a finish.

Brian Kelleher +221 vs John Lineker -234 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t see how Kelleher wins this fight. Unless he finds a way to crack Lineker’s unreal chin or exhaust him while avoiding the mass amount of damage that will be sent back his way. He could get a sub, but I think that is even more unlikely. Lineker hits too hard and Kelleher is too easy to be hit. Either a finish or a decision at home gives John the W. Gold Play.

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Either with volume or a finish, maybe both, Lineker is a point producer. Kelleher is simply too open defensively to deal with what John brings. Add him to your lineup.

Lyoto Machida -259 vs Vitor Belfort +241 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight is really a case of who has deteriorated less. I think is Machida. He showed he still can go a full 5, take damage, and dish it out. Belfort has a round in him, maybe less. Machida should be able to pick him off as he comes forward and eventually put him away. Gold Play.

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With the mounting knockout losses and general deterioration of his skill set, Belfort is in a tough place. Machida is not what he used to be, but he offers enough to end the fight. Add him.

Cezar Ferreira +115 vs Karl Roberson -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will be honest, this is a fight that came down to Ferreira fighting at home. Roberson is still untested and now competing in Brazil against a better fighter than anyone he has faced is a tough spot. Look for Cezar to use his wrestling to take him down and then either submit him or grind out a decision. That chin of CF’s keeps him from being a top play. I like him in the Silver section.

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Ferreira has shown he can finish on the mat, but I could be leaning more towards takedowns and advancements on the mat to produce points. He is also affordable. Add him.

Aleksei Oliynyk +138 vs Junior Albini -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Rolling against a Brazilian (1 of 4 on the card), Albini winning by knockout in his debut didn’t do much for me. Once he was forced to fight a full 15 minutes he struggled. Oliynyk’s style isn’t complex, but for a young fighter, it can be a lot to overcome. Albini was too passive against Andrei, if he does it again, Oliynyk will have a very good chance to put him on the floor where the talent gap is significant. Still waiting for age to catch up to him, Bronze bet on AO.

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When AO wins he almost always does it via submission and at an even $8000 that is a pretty solid Fantasy play. He will also most likely do it early. Let’s cash in.

Davi Ramos -135 vs Nick Hein +133 

Hein was my borderline play. He was almost a Silver pick, but I have a few of trepidations. The layoff is a major concern. How does he come back? How does he react to fighting in Brazil and not at home in Germany? Will his lack of overwhelming volume open the door for the judges to favour the local when they shouldn’t? I still think he wins, but I will drop him to a Bronze play.

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Hein is a decision machine and I don’t see him subbing Ramos. Pass.

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -128 vs Sean Strickland +118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like both of these guys, but they have drastically different styles. Unless Strickland can grind him into the mat for a convincing win, the aggression of Dos Santos will carry well against the judges in the face of Strickland’s jab-heavy offence. It is crucial that the Brazilian stay vertical. Silver play.

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Strickland is a very tough out. I see this fight ending on the cards. Pass.

Sultan Aliev +206 vs Warlley Alves -217 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Aliev needs takedowns here and lots of them. He has to find a way to wear Alves down. If he can’t he is going to be behind and possibly getting finished. In fact, his key to success, the takedown, will put him right in the firing line of Alves’s nasty guillotine choke. Gold Play for Warlley.

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Alves is a little expensive for my liking, but I think he still has some value to offer between his aggression and his submission skills. I have him as a sub.

Jack Hermansson -147 vs Thales Leites +138 

Getting finished in both of your fights in Brazil can certainly rock a fighter’s confidence. I really like Hermansson as a fighter and Leites is trending down, but I think he puts together a solid performance at home and he has the skill set to win this fight. Look for Thales to use the clinch and takedowns to get the better of Jack. Silver play for the home dog.

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I have Thales as a sub. There is a very good chance that a win for him here comes by submission. He is the Fantasy Fav which has me liking by underdog bet that much more.

Alberto Mina +186 vs Ramazan Emeev -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t like Mina as a fighter. He is entertaining but sloppy and with questionable cardio. I think his opponents have been perfect stylistic matchups for him. Emeev is aggressive, durable, and has the wrestling to capitalize on Mina once he slows down. There is some concern for Emeev cutting to a new division and fighting in Brazil, but Mina is fighting at home for the first time in a while and doing so after a long layoff. Bronze play for the Russian.

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I don’t like how Mina faded so badly against Akiyama, who isn’t known for pushing a big pace. Emeev could get the finish in the second half or he could score a lot with strikes and takedowns. Add him.

James Bochnovic +274 vs Markus Perez -270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am not interested in this fight from a side perspective, but I will look at the prop options. Other than that it is a pass.

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Bochnovic didn’t impress me in his debut and Perez can finish, use him as a sub to create diversity.

 

1. John Lineker -234 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2.Warlley Alves -217 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Amanda Nunes -842 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Lyoto Machida -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Kelvin Gastelum +133 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Ramazan Emeev -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Markus Perez -270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -128 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Aleksei Oliynyk +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Cezar Ferreira +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Thales Leites +138 

12. Mackenzie Dern -239 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Nick Hein +133 

1. Kelvin Gastelum +133 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Aleksei Oliynyk +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Cezar Ferreira +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Nick Hein +133 

5. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -128 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Amanda Nunes to Win by Decision +260 

This is the play to make on this fight. Can Nunes finish? Yup, but she is going to be hesitant to overextend herself in a 5-round fight. Pennington is no easy out and will push back against Amanda just enough to keep this fight close. Nunes needs to fight at her pace and by doing that she lowers the likelihood of scoring a stoppage. Play her on the cards.

Mackenzie Dern to Win by Submission +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

What a letdown to see her miss weight, but as I mentioned, fighters that don’t make weight have a great track record. Additionally, Dern has said she is looking for the sub and Cooper has had some major vulnerabilities on the mat. Take the plus money and roll.

John Lineker to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +328 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Kelleher has had issues with his submission defence, so playing Lineker inside the distance at a slightly cheaper price is also an option. I like Lineker to showcase his power against a fighter that will sit and trade with him. Kelleher gets hit way to much and doesn’t have the wrestling to defuse what the flamethrower has to offer. Take Lineker to finish him.

Cezar Ferreira/Karl Roberson 

See Betting Scenario section.

Nick Hein to Win by Decision +175 

It isn’t much of a climb from taking Hein straight up, but it is still worth the play. Hein has gone the distance in 6 straight fights and 8 of his last 9. If Ramos can’t get him down, this will play out as a less then threatening striking battle. Take the German on the cards.

Alberto Mina/Ramazan Emeev

See Betting Scenario section.

James Bochnovic/Markus Perez 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario section.

 

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