UFC 223: Nurmagomedov vs Iaquinta- Bet Pack Review

 

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Rose Namajunas $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Zabit Magomedsharipov $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Mike Rodriguez $7800 
Fighter 4: Joe Lauzon $8900 
Fighter 5: Evan Dunham $8100 
Fighter 6: Bec Rawlings $7400 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Al Iaquinta +425 vs Khabib Nurmagomedov -456 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Obviously we can’t touch Khabib straight up here, it is not worth it. I think a counter bet on Al is definetly a play worth looking into. He has good hands and solid wrestling and when you figure in the crazy circumstances surrounding this fight, anything can happeb. I will also look at a prop bet on the Russian.

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No Fantasy Play here.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -105 vs Rose Namajunas +103 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I liked Rose to retain, but after the “Bus from Hell” I am a little worried that she is shaken up. Still, the odds are solid so I will role with Rose as I feel she offers too many issues for JJ to overcome. More often than not fallen champions come up short when attempting to recover their title right away. Silver Play.

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At sub $8000 and both finishing skills and a 5 round fight to stack up the points, Rose is a must buy. She has shown us before that if you give her 5 rounds she can score big, see the PVZ bloodshed. She has also shown, specifically against JJ, that given the chance, she can finish. Lock her in.

Calvin Kattar -110 vs Renato Moicano +110 

This fight is quietly flying under the radar and is a lot of fun! Moicano is coming off a brutal fight that took something out of him. Kattar is the better striker, but he needs to stay vertical. If Renato fights on the outside, Kattar will outwork him like Stephens almost did. If he fights in close, Kattar will outland him. Silver Play.

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Kattar is coming off a finish, but it is the first in a very long time. I will pass.

Kyle Bochniak +575 vs Zabit Magomedsharipov -570 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Big pass here, but we will look at a prop bet.

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ZM has been a clinical finisher in his career and he has stopped both opponents in the UFC. Bochniak might be hard to get a hold of, but I like Mags to get the finish even at this lofty price add him.

Chris Gruetzemacher +150 vs Joe Lauzon -158 

If Lauzon can’t win this fight, his UFC career is effectively over. Gruetzemacher has been taken down in all of his UFC fights and isn’t a high volume striker- that is the perfect recipe for success for Joe. When you throw in Chris’s submission defence issues, Lauzon should be able to put him away- in theory at least. If Joe gasses, he could easily drop a decision. His cardio has me playing as a Silver play.

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Lauzon’s finishing skills might not hold up against the elite of the division, but they are good enough here against a lesser fighter with TDD and submission defence issues. He is a little pricey if he gets shutout, but we don’t have a lot of options here. I have faith he gets the finish. Add him.

Felice Herrig +180 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have been riding with Felice on her current resurgence, but I think KK is just a step too much. Where Herrig has been able to edge out a couple of opponents despite getting outlanded, she won’t be able to do that here. KK’s volume is too good and her TDD is too strong. Herrig tends to start strong and then hold on late. KK is a slow starter and then pours it on. I like KK to win this on the cards. Gold Play.

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KK is expensive for a fighter that doesn’t normally finish. Her volume is good, but there are better options. Pass.

Evan Dunham -110 vs Olivier Aubin Mercier +125 

I love Evan Dunham here. His volume and counter wrestling is going to give OAM fits. OAM relies heavily on his TD game and I just don’t see him planting Dunham on the floor enough to win this fight. Even if Evan gets taken down, he gets up quick and will go to work. OAM has lost fights in the past even when he lands a few TDs, that could very well be the case here. Gold play for Dunham.

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I am not expecting a finish today, but I feel that Dunham will score with his volume. Against non-strikers, he has routinely piled up 100+ strikes in each fight. He will do that here. Add him for a cheap $8100.

Ashlee Evans-Smith -185 vs Bec Rawlings +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

AES is one of those all or nothing fighters. She is either smashing her opponent or she is getting blown out of the water. Rawlings has been inconsistent at best and could be on her last legs in the UFC if it wasn’t for a new division popping up.  The key here is the wrestling of AES. If she can get it going, she is a handful. Bec has had issues once put on her back and when you consider she is the smaller fighter moving up and AES is bigger coming down- that should magnify the scenario. It is a risk, but I like AES in my Gold play.

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I am using Rawlings in my Fantasy lineup. She is very cheap and when AES losses, she often gets finished. There aren’t a lot of options out there for my list of fighters so I will take Rawlings and see if she does pull it out. If not, I will be leaning heavily on my other 5.

Devin Clark -120 vs Mike Rodriguez -105 

The odds for this fight are all over the place, or at least they were for a while. I think they are settling down a bit. Rodriguez impressed me with his calculated style. I expected to see an over-aggressive brawler with the record he has. Clark is undersized and over-aggressive himself and Rodriguez should feast on that. Rodriguez gets the finish. Bronze play.

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Clark has been finished a couple of times and Rodriguez is a straight up finisher. He is also cheap. Add him.

 

1. Zabit Magomedsharipov -570 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Evan Dunham -110 

3. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Khabib Nurmagomedov -456 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Joe Lauzon -158 

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6. Rose Namajunas +103 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Calvin Kattar -110 

8. Ashlee Evans-Smith -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Mike Rodriguez -105 

 

1. Rose Namajunas +103 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Evan Dunham -110 

3. Joe Lauzon -158 

4. Mike Rodriguez -105 

5. Calvin Kattar -110 

1. Al Iaquinta +425:  I think Al is worth a shot at this price, there is just too much craziness going on this weekend to not think he has a shot to shock the work. He is a good striker and solid wrestler. His hands are the key, but he needs to let them go. Hedge any bet that has Nurm by TKO with a straight Al win.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

At this point, I struggle to see anyone holding up under 25 minutes of GNP from KN. The guy is a monster. My only real concern here is that he opts to look for a sub if he gets Al’s back. He hasn’t done that since his 2012 UFC debut, so I feel this is a must play for this fight.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk/Rose Namajunas 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win by Submission +250 

While ZM has finished opponents both ways, I feel this stylistic matchup has submission finish written all over it. I expect to see Bochniak try to stay mobile and on the outside. This will force Mags to close the gap and from there he might as well look for the TD against a fighter with questionable TDD. I will take the big line here on the sub.

Joe Lauzon to Win by Submission +250 

Another solid value bet with good stats to back it up. CG has been subbed in all 3 of his pro defeats, including both of his UFC losses. Joe has 18 career submission wins. CG has been taken down 9 times over 3 UFC fights, including 5 in his last fight and 2 in each of his previous 2. Joe should find success getting this fight to the floor and setting up his submission game. You need to play this at +250 or really anything over +125.

Felice Herrig/Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Evan Dunham to Win by Decision +130 

Dunham has shown that he can fight a full 15-minutes and put a lot of hands on his opponent, without getting the finish. He has gone the distance in 5 straight fights and 12 of his 25 overall. OAM has never been finished and is very good on the mat which will keep ED away from the area where he is most likely to put his foe away. Take this one to go to the cards.

Ashlee Evans-Smith/Bec Rawlings

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Devin Clark/Mike Rodriguez 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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