UFC 221: Rockhold vs Romero- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Luke Rockhold $8300 
Fighter 2: Tai Tuivasa $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Tyson Pedro $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med 
Fighter 4: Jeremy Kennedy $7300  
Fighter 5: Mark Hunt $7800 
Fighter 6: Jussier Formiga $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Li Jingliang $8800 
Fighter 2: Israel Adesanya $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4:  
 

Luke Rockhold -160 vs Yoel Romero +145 

Rockhold’s chin and Romero’s gas tank are 2 of the key elements here. Rockhold struggles when he is pressured, but Romero tends to attack in bursts, sitting back bewteen attacks. That should allow Rockhold time to set up his attack and start doing damage. Ultimately, I think Luke is the more complete fighter and his top game is going to be a huge deal breaker. Look for Rockhold to grab top position via a scramble or possible knockdown. Once on top, he will blast away on a wrestler that is not use to fighting off his back. Silver Play for the former Champ.

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Rockhold gets the call. He is affordable, can finish, and potentially has 5 rounds to put points on the board. Make it happen

Curtis Blaydes -155 vs Mark Hunt +150 

Hunt is nearing the end of his UFC run and would love nothing more than to rain on the UFC’s parade by upsetting one of their key prospects on the rise. Hunt has solid TDD against the double leg, the TD of preference for Mr. Blaydes. If Curtis can’t get the fight to the floor, he is going to be at a deficit against the power of big Mark.  Look for Hunt to lull Blaydes into a slower paced striking exchange while landing the more impactful strikes. I’ve got Hunt in my Bronze play.

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At just under $8000, Hunt is affordable and can finish. He isn’t going to put up a lot of volume, but he allows us to sign other big name fighters and still has the potential to finish the fight.

Cyril Asker +250 vs Tai Tuivasa -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I considered a play here, but it is probably easier to back a prop instead of taking this price on a relatively green fighter. Pass.

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I do have Tai in my lineup. He has finished all of his pro wins in the opening round and Asker has suffered both of is UFC defeats inside round, both by knockout. Solid numbers to justify spending the money add him.

Jake Matthews +155 vs Li Jingliang -145 

I was hoping Matthews fighting at home would help the line here. Li is the better fighter and will bring that physical edge that will make the move to WW for Matthews an issue. Li should have a solid edge on the feet in power, technique, and volume- that’s the big 3. If Jake makes a mistake and Li gets on top, that could be all she wrote. I like Li in my Gold Play.

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Li has shown good finishing skills and Matthews has been put away on a couple of occasions. If Li gets on top, especially from back mount, it could be over quick. Use him to help create variety in your lineups.

Saparbek Safarov +252 vs Tyson Pedro -271 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I see less potential for Pedro to get upset then I do Tuivasa. I might consider a Silver level play here to add on to one of my other bets, but leaving Pedro off altogether is also on the table.

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As a Fantasy play, Pedro can finish and do it quickly. Safarov is pretty sloppy and will create a boatload of opportunities for the Aussie to close the show. Add him.

Damien Brown +120 vs Dong Hyun Kim -126 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I think we are getting a bargain here. Kim should be able to outpace Brown on the feet, possibly hurt/ finish him, and if all else fail he has the takedown skills to plant him on the mat or up against the cage for the duration of the fight. The pure volume of Kim’s attack will be too much here. Gold Play!

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With the Fight Scenario telling me that this bout has a high likelihood of going the distance, I will pass.

Israel Adesanya -315 vs Rob Wilkinson +310 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope! At least not a straight bet on Israel. Hard No!

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Adesanya has been a straight up killer and Wilkinson folded up pretty quick against a bloated WW in his last fight. I have Adesanya on my sub list.

Alex Volkanovski -180 vs Jeremy Kennedy +190 

I’m really liking this underdog play. In a couple of different fights, I have seen Volkanovski get taken down with relative ease. Kennedy’s combo of pace and wrestling is a lot to deal with. I really like the way he transitions from the clinch attack, landing knees, to shooting for a takedown. Both guys are green, but I see Kennedy controlling early and outpacing him over a full 3 rounds with wrestling and clinch striking. Silver Play.

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When we spend big money, we have to find a place to save big money. Kennedy is just that opportunity. He has put up some massive takedown numbers and if he can come close to producing those stats again he will be a solid underdog point producer. Add him.

Ben Nguyen +100 vs Jussier Formiga -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like the line on Formiga, but I get why Ben is getting such support. Does Nguyen fall into the category of fighters that can defend the grappling exchanges and win the fight on the feet or is the type that gets overwhelmed on the mat. I think he is the later. Smolka had a field day against Ben on the mat and Formiga’s transition game is at the top of the division. Formiga gets it done and it’s hard to overlook him at this price. Gold Play.

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Jussier is very affordable and will put up points with his ground game whether he finishes or takes a decision. Add him.

Mizuto Hirota +132 vs Ross Pearson -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Hirota’s record suggests he has stopping power, but we haven’t seen it in the UFC. It is also worth noting that he is moving back up to LW to fight bigger men and that could make it hard to get the finish. Pearson looked much more aggressive in his last fight and against Hirota that is going to be his key to success. Silver Play for the Brit.

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Hirota is a very tough out. No Play.

Jose Quinonez -145 vs Teruto Ishihara +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ishihara needs the early stoppage and he is relatively limited with how he can deliver it. Quinonez is a more well-rounded fighter and can win this fight in more ways; striking based decision, wrestling-heavy decision, or a submission win. Solid fight either way, Bronze Play for Quinonez.

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I’m expecting a decision so I will pass.

Daichi Abe -130 vs Luke Jumeau +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Jumeau didn’t impress me in his last fight and I feel Abe can exploit his shortcomings. Abe needs to be the more active fighter and mix in his judo attack when needed. Close fight, but Abe gets the nod. Bronze Play.

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No Play here.

 

1. Dong Hyun Kim -126 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Tyson Pedro -271 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ross Pearson -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Li Jingliang -145 

5. Tai Tuivasa -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Jussier Formiga -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Israel Adesanya -315 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8.Luke Rockhold -160 

9. Jeremy Kennedy +190 

10. Jose Quinonez -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Mark Hunt +150 

12. Daichi Abe -130 

1. Jeremy Kennedy +190 

2. Mark Hunt +150 

3. Jussier Formiga -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Dong Hyun Kim -126 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Luke Rockhold -160 

1. Cyril Asker +250 : If Asker can get this fight to the floor he could easily grind out the opening roun and tax Tai’s gas tank. He might be worth a small play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Cyril Asker/Tai Tuivasa Total Rounds Under 1.5 -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tuivasa has never been outside of the opening round, including his UFC debut. Asker has either finished or been finished in each of his 4 UFC fights. Tuivasa is coming out looking for a stoppage on the feet, Asker wants the fight on the mat. Both can finish, bet accordingly.

Tyson Pedro to Win by Submission +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Pedro has 4 submission wins and will be looking to take this fight to the floor. Safarov has had issues with his TDD in the past and by taking him down Pedro removes his biggest weapon. Solid play for a fight that won’t be going the distance.

Damien Brown/Dong Hyun Kim 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Israel Adesanya to Win by KO/TKO/DQ -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I considered the Under 1.5, but Adesanya has several second-round finishes on his record. If Wilkinson can get his ground game working he could extend the fight into the middle round. He does have a tendency to slow down after round 1, so at that point, Israel could start to unload for the finish.

Ross Pearson to Win by Decision +124 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Hirota is a very tough out and while Pearson has been finished on multiple occasions, Mizuto hasn’t shown those type of finishing skills in North America. I like Pearson to land first in the majority of the exchanges, keep Hirota backing up, and take a solid decision win.

Jose Quinonez/Teruto Ishihara

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Daichi Abe/Luke Jumeau

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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