UFC 220: Miocic vs Ngannou- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Stipe Miocic $7300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Daniel Cormier $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Enrique Barzola $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Shane Burgos $8400 
Fighter 5: Brandon Davis $8100 
Fighter 6: Thomas Almeida $8200 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Gian Villante $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Razak Alhassan $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Francis Ngannou -160 vs Stipe Miocic +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is going to be a great fight, even if it only lasts 30 seconds. I am of the mindset that Stipe needs to get out of the first 5 minutes and then the fight should be his. I’m not saying that Stipe can’t win it early nor am I saying that Ngannou can’t win after the opening round. What I am saying is that the percentages take a massive turn in the champ’s favour. Look for Stipe to use his single leg to get Ngannou off balance and eventually put him down. He did a great job against JDS in the first fight of faking the shot and then striking and then looking for the TD on the next attempt. Ngannou swings big, that will cost him here against the more compact strikes of the champ. Silver play.

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At $7300, Miocic is a must play. He averages 95 points per fight and can score both in a short bout and a long one. If Ngannou doesn’t get the early finish, look for takedowns to table some points for the champ and middle round finish. Add him.

Daniel Cormier -303 vs Volkan Oezdemir +300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I won’t touch Cormier straight up, but I will consider a prop bet on him. Pass.

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Like the Prop bet, we are looking for a finish. Oezdemir has shown us very little when it comes to fighting effectively into a longer fight. He gassed versus OSP on short notice, but he also gassed in other fights outside of the UFC with a full camp. Cormier is a grinder and I expect he will grind him down with an avalanche of takedowns and eventually score the submission mission once Volkan turtles up, similar to Rumble.

Calvin Kattar +175 vs Shane Burgos -150 

Kattar fought well in his last fight, but he was struggling early and then all at once- the wheels seemed to fall of for Fili. That won’t be the case here against Burgos. Look for the pressure of being a more known fighter with a full camp to get to Kattar a bit. In the cage, Burgos doesn’t take a step back and he has the tools to move forward, avoid Calvin’s offence, and land his own. That will be key here. Burgos hits hard, with a more diversified attack, and will land more frequently. Gold Play for Hurricane.

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Burgos also makes the Fantasy cut. He hits hard and has shown that he can finish. Equally as important, he puts up decent volume. He put up 116 points in the Pepey fight without a finish and while I don’t expect him to do that if this fight goes a full 3 rounds, 90 points is not out of the question.

Francimar Barroso +155 vs Gian Villante -142 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Villante has all the tools, but he tends to gas. Barroso has some tools, but he tends to gas too. This fight could come down to who gasses fast. I like Villante to get off to a strong start, get ahead on the cards, and then when both start to slow down he will do just enough to earn that second round. I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored a finish, but his jab and kicking game will be the key to earning this win. Silver Play.

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I have him as a spare. He certainly could get a finish and he is affordable enough to use to help create a little diversification.

Rob Font +105 vs Thomas Almeida -117 

This is one of those fights that really could go either way and the odds reflect that. If you look at the 2 losses that Almeida had, it was to the former Champ and arguably the next title challenger. That should not diminish how good he is. Font looked out of place against Lineker, subbed by Munhoz and his 2 biggest wins are over a guy that is 2-2 in the UFC and George Roop. I like Font, but I think Almeida is the quicker and more diversified striker. We might be getting some value here because Font is fighting at home. If Almeida was in Brazil, he might come in around -150 or so. Strong Silver play.

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At $8220 and 17 career wins by knockout, Almeida is a must have. He has been through some wars and knows how to dish damage and knows how to finish. Volume and finishing skills for under $8500- take that to the bank.

Brandon Davis -120 vs Kyle Bochniak +123 

Davis looked good in his Contender Fight and I really liked his in-cage demeanour. Conversely, I’m not impressed with Bochniak and feel he could easily be 0-3. Davis will outwork him which has been a constant issue for “Crash” during his UFC run. Davis is the better striker both in quantity and quality and he could add in some wrestling. He is shiny and new, but I will play him in the Gold section.

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At $8100, I like the volume that Davis showed in his last fight. Bochniak is a tough out, but over 3-rounds look for the new guy to tally up some points in a one-sided decision win. Add him

Abdul Razak Alhassan -193 vs Sabah Homasi +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We have a rematch from a very fun and controversial slugfest. I’ve got Alhassan as a Bronze play, but I was close to taking Homasi. He had more big moments in that fight and was doing well against a fighter that was starting to slow. Had Alhassan been forced to go back to his stool after unloading and not getting the finish, it could have been all downhill. Its hard to pick the loser of the first fight to win the rematch, I have done it before, but if you are wrong you look extra foolish. Counter bet on Homasi.

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Alhassan is a spare. It came down to him or Cormier and I feel DC is the better option to score the finish and/or put up points over 3-5 rounds. If Alhassan doesn’t snatch that big first-round finish, we could be in for a stinker.

Alexandre Pantoja -122 vs Dustin Ortiz +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I initially was on Pantoja, but the more I watched his fight with Shelton, the more I feel Ortiz can win this fight. Ortiz is an excellent scrambler and that is going to be key for him to pull this one out. Look for him to force Pantoja to work hard early, defend some his takedowns and start taking over once the Brazilian slows down. Silver Bet.

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Nothing here.

Dan Inge +130 vs Julio Arce -135 

We don’t know a lot about these guys. What we do know is that Arce is a former Bantamweight coming in on short notice. He has had issues at 145 pounds when dealing with larger men. If Inge can grind him early with takedowns, that should pay off later in the fight with Julio starts to gas. I like to lean tot he dog when we know this little about both fighters. Bronze Play.

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I considered a play here, but I will pass instead.

Enrique Barzola -210 vs Matt Bessette +201 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are going Gold with Barzola. He has excellent wrestling and improving striking. Bessette is a pocket striker, but without that homerun shot he is going to get put on his back over and over again. I love the way Barzola keeps coming, even when he can’t land the first takedown or hold it- he just strikes and shoots again. This comes down to output and Enrique will have it. Gold Play.

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I am not envisioning a finish here. Instead, I am seeing 5-8 takedowns score by Barzola. He has put up over 100 points in each of his last 2 wins with big TD numbers. With his lack of finishing numbers, most people will overlook him here. Play him!

Gleison Tibau +220 vs Islam Makhachev -207 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I just don’t see Tibau doing well in this new age of weight cutting restrictions. That being said, if his TDD is still the equivalent of running into a well, that takes away one of Mak’s key weapons. The Russian should still be able to outwork him, but at this price, I will throw him into the Bronze section or not at all.

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Too expensive, especially if he can’t finish and can’t land takedowns. Pass

 

 

1. Daniel Cormier -303 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Enrique Barzola -210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Shane Burgos -150 

4. Brandon Davis -120 

5. Thomas Almeida -117 

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6. Islam Makhachev -207 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Abdul Razak Alhassan -193 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Stipe Miocic +165 

9. Gian Villante -142 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Dustin Ortiz +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Dan Inge +130 

 

1. Stipe Miocic +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Dustin Ortiz +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Dan Inge +130 

4. Thomas Almeida -117 

5. Shane Burgos -150 

1. Sabah Homasi +185 – I saw enough out of Homasi in the first fight that if he fights smart he can win the rematch. I’m very interested to see how this goes.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +225 

With 6 straight wins coming by knockout, this play doesn’t need much of an explanation. While a standing knockout isn’t out of the question, I see this one most likely coming from top position. I forgot to mention it in my breakdown, but there are images surfacing of Ngannou and he doesn’t look to be nearly in as good of shape as he has in the past. A shorter camp and spending the holidays at home could play a role there. The champ by knockout.

Daniel Cormier to Win by Submission +185 

This play is based on the Rumble fights. Cormier’s style of grinding is hard to overcome and once a fighter gets to a certain point of exhaustion, they will cover up and wait for the end. This should create the perfect opportunity for DC to sink in the choke and get the tap.

Brandon Davis/Kyle Bochniak 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Abdul Razak Alhassan/Sabah Homasi 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Enrique Barzola/Matt Bessette

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Gleison Tibau/Islam Makhachev 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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