UFC 219: Cyborg vs Holm- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Khabib Nurmagomedov $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Khalil Rountree Jr. $9400 
Fighter 3: Cris Cyborg $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Omari Akhmedov $7600 
Fighter 5: Louis Smolka $7300 
Fighter 6: Mark De La Rosa $7200 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Carlos Condit $8500 
Fighter 2: Marc Diakiese $8700 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Holly Holm +32o vs Cris Cyborg -315 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is one of the best lines we have seen on Cyborg in a while, but if you are going to invest there are prop bets that should be your focus. I will certainly look strongly at a counter bet on the challenger, but otherwise its a no play on the champ.

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I do have Cyborg in my Fantasy lineup. We are going 3 heavy favs and 3 dogs. If she scores the finish, that will pay significantly, moreover, if this fight goes deep she showed that she is capable of putting up big numbers as well. She won’t unique points as most will play her, but I still think she is worth the add.

Edson Barboza +260 vs Khabib Nurmagomedov -265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are lots of questions surrounding Nurmagomedov here and lots of people are backing Barboza as a result. I think people want to be on the right side of the bet when a fighter drops their ‘0’. Edson struggles with pressure, especially when looking to set up his kicks. That is going to be the key to Nurmy. I think Khabib puts him down and keeps him down. I like him as a Silver play here with a prop bet option in the works.

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With the exception of the Tibau fight, Nurmagomedov has been a point-producing machine. His UFC best Fantasy score is 156 is impressive and he has topped the century mark on multiple occasions. A finish is there to be had and a pile of points via TDs and GNP is also on the table. Our 3 and 3 approach allows us to spend big. Add him.

Carla Esparza +245 vs Cynthia Calvillo -210 

I can see an avenue to victory for Esparza here, but I think Calvillo will be too busy for her. Carla can strike, but she is far less effective if she can’t keep her opponent grounded. Cavillo will out scramble her for the duration. Big test for CC, so I have her as a Silver bet.

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I don’t see a finish here, so I will pass on a fighter costing more than $9000.

Dan Hooker +174 vs Marc Diakiese -178 

I see Diakiese being undervalued here. Unless Hooker catches him and KO’s him, Diakiese wins this fight. Hooker is too slow and too hittable without the threat of a takedown to back Marc off. Diakiese might slow down a bit, but he will still put up enough volume to beat a fighter that traditionally struggles on the scorecards. Good value, Gold Play.

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I’ve got Diakiese as a sub. He has stopping power, but I think his volume will produce here as well. Use him to create some variety.

Carlos Condit -152 vs Neil Magny +155 

Is Condit going to be added to the list of stars that have finally peaked and are now in the twilight stage of their careers? Maybe. But I still like him here against Magny. There aren’t a lot of solid favourites to back on this card, so I am going to run with NBK. He hits hard and should be able to find the chin of Magny. Neil’s chin isn’t as good as his record would indicate either. Gold Play.

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Condit has finished in 5 of his last 6 wins and I see him doing it again here. I’ve got him as a sub that can be moved into the lineup for diversity sake.

Khalil Rountree -300 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +285 

I will pass on a straight bet here and look at the prop options.

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So Khalil is a straight up killer and he is fighting a guy that loves to walk forward with little focus on defense. Oleksiejczuk has been knocked out once and hurt in other fights. Enough said, add Khalil.

Myles Jury -185 v Rick Glenn +198 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Jury’s path to victory plays into his strength and Glenn’s weakness. I like when you don’t have to reach to see how the fight plays out. The unknown is the weight cut for Jury and how draining it is on him over a longer fight. Gold Play.

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Glenn is tough as nails and will be hard to finish. Pass on Jury.

Louis Smolka +255 vs Matheus Nicolau -219 

I don’t quite see why Smolka is the dog here. He has lost 3 in a row which will affect the perception of the betting public, but he has faced some pretty solid competition. Nicolau has just a single win at 125 pounds and it was close. He is a little too inactive at times for a fighter like Smolka who pushes a strong pace. Silver Play.

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Smolka is very affordable and will score with volume and possibly could get a stoppage if he can exhaust his foe. When he is at his best, he usually scores around the 100 point mark or higher. Add him.

Marvin Vettori -205 vs Omari Akhmedov +190 

Vettori is scrappy, but I think Akhmedov will benefit from not cutting to 170. He has looked decent in his last 2 fights and if you really look at his UFC run, he has only been badly beaten by Nelson. If was winning is other 2 losses before he faded. Look for the takedowns to play a big role- Bronze bet.

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Omari is part of my underdog section for my Fantasy lineup. He hits very hard and can put up decent takedown numbers. He has only gone over the 100 point mark once in his UFC run, but he has come close on multiple occasions. Add him.

Mark De La Rosa +185 vs Tim Elliott -200 

This is an odd fight. Short notice for both, debut for De La Rosa, divisional jump for Elliott who was supposed to fight last weekend. De La Rosa looks to be a sharp striker and is solid on the ground. Elliott likes to “big brother” or bully his opponents at FLW. De La Rosa isn’t a big BW, but he is big enough to prevent this. Bronze play for the upset.

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I have De La Rosa in the lineup because he is cheap. He can crack as well and will most likely be overlooked by most players. Add him.

 

1. Khalil Rountree -300 

2. Marc Diakiese -178 

3. Khabib Nurmagomedov -265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Cris Cyborg -315 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Myles Jury -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Carlos Condit -152 

7. Cynthia Calvillo -210 

8. Louis Smolka +255 

9. Omari Akhmedov +190 

10. Mark De La Rosa +185 

 

1. Louis Smolka +255 

2. Mark De La Rosa +185 

3. Omari Akhmedov +190 

4. Carlos Condit -152 

5. Marc Diakiese -178 

1. Holly Holm +32o:  I picked Holm in the prop section by knockout, but if you want to play it safe you could just take her straight up at a decent value. Can she shock the world again?

2. Carla Esparza +245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med As much as I am not a huge fan of Carla, I think she is a live dog here with an avenue to victory. She is probably worth a small bet here.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

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Prop Bets

Cris Cyborg to Win by Decision +415 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Holm is tough as nails and sound defensively. While I question her offensive skills, her defensive work is fantastic. Cyborg has only gone the distance twice in her career, but she is coming off of a longer fight with a tough opponent. I would expect to see similar results as she faces better competition. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see a stoppage, I like the value here.

Holly Holm to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +850 

If you want to back Holly take her by knockout. She will look to counter the bull rush of Cyborg and catch her with a head kick. She did it to Rousey and Correira and it was a thing of beauty. If Cyborg slows, Holly will find a home for that high kick and that could spell the end of Cyborg.

Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +350 

I think people have started to forget how vulnerable Barboza’s chin is. I don’t expect Nurmagomedov to stop him on the feet, but if he gets him it will be on the floor he will wear him out. Khabib smashes guys on the mat and if Edson can’t stay vertical, I can’t see him lasting for a full 3 rounds on bottom. Good Value.

Khalil Rountree/Michal Oleksiejczuk 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Myles Jury to Win by Decision +127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Jury showed he can finish in his last fight, but Glenn is a tough out who has only been finished twice in his career and once since early 2010. I’m looking at Myles using his defense to avoid the striking of Glenn and then takedowns to keep him on the floor. Take Fury on the cards.

Marvin Vettori/Omari Akhmedov

See Betting Scenario Section.

Mark De La Rosa/Tim Elliott

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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