UFC 218 & TUF 26 Finale- Bet Pack Reviews

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Roxanne Modafferi $7700 
Fighter 2: Terrion Ware $7200 
Fighter 3: Montana De La Rosa $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Gerald Meerschaert $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Gillian Robertson $7400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Rachael Ostovich $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Barb Honchak $8900  
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

*With 2 cards this weekend and limited time to post information, these breakdowns will be brief and to the point.

Nicco Montano -189 vs Roxanne Modafferi +170 

I like the verteran here as the dog. Roxy is more suited for the big show and Montano is still an unproven commodity. The opponent change could also impact the less experienced fighter. I think Modafferi outworks, especially if this fight creeps into the second half. Montano didn’t wow me on the show, she was good, but not great. Bet Modafferi now before her value drops. Silver play.

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Roxy is also part of my fantasy team. She has shown herself capable of finish from top position and I think over 5-rounds, if Montano fades, Roxy puts her out. She is also quite affordable and will probably be overlooked by many players.

Sean O’Malley -239 vs Terrion Ware +223 

I just don’t see why O’Malley is getting so much love here. He was getting cracked in his debut until he landed a big shot and changed the fight. Ware is the more conventional fighter who held his own at a higher weight class in his debut. Ware outworks O’Malley who appears to have a tendency to fade.

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Ware can finish and I see O’Malley fading here. Terrion is affordable and helps create space for bigger purchases. Add him

Barb Honchak -184 vs Lauren Murphy +170 

I love Honchak here. Murphy is just too willing to take damage, but not return fire. She is going to get outworked but a fighter that could be the champion sometime in 2018. Murphy has just not impressed me of late, Gold play on Honchak.

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Barb is a sub. Murphy is a tough out and Barb will be reduced to picking up points via takedowns and striking activity.

Eric Spicely +169 vs Gerald Meerschaert -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like the odds here. Both guys can work on the mat, but I give the striking edge to Meerschaert. He is simply going to be busier and more active. Spicely is too one dimensional for my liking. Gold play on GM.

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Meerschaert is a proven finisher and Spicely has been subbed twice in his UFC career. At $8700, he is a solid buy.

Deanna Bennett -402 vs Melinda Fabian +325 

This is a hard pass, as most heavy favourites will be on this card.

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I am going to pass here as well. Money can be better spent elsewhere.

Joe Soto +167 vs Brett Johns -160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Soto is a tough out, no doubt about it. Johns is no slouch either. The key is going to be Johns’s level of activity. Soto keeps fights close and takes too much damage for my liking. I see Johns simply landing too often for Soto steal a decision. If you are going to take a shot on Joe, consider a play inside the distance. Gold Play on Brett.

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While Johns has power and offers decent volume and Soto can be finished, I am looking elsewhere for less common points.

Christina Marks +300 vs Montant De La Rosa -362 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. De La Rosa is too big a fav here to invest in especially with this being a 2 card weekend. Spend wisely, take a pass.

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Play De La Rosa. She has a strong submission/ wrestling background and Marks has been subbed in 6 of her 8 defeats. Even at this high a price, she is a solid play.

Andrew Sanchez -475 vs Ryan Janes +444 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Sanchez let his last fight get away from him and this price is way too high. Janes hasn’t done much to warrant a counter bet either. Pass.

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Sanchez is a takedown machine, so he might be an option but he is expensive. Pass.

Karine Gevorgyan +300 vs Rachael Ostovich -308 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t think Gevorgyan belongs. She seems a little too out of her depth here. That being said, anything short of a prop bet isn’t worth it. Pass.

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I think Ostovich gets the finish here against an overmatched opponent. She is expensive, but that could push people away from her. Sign Rachael up.

Ariel Beck +195 vs Shana Dobson -203 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are some mixed feelings about this fight across the prediction community. I have seen several people backing Beck here. I like fading trendy dogs. Dobson is a little more dynamic on the feet and Beck is vulnerable on the mat. Those 2 come together to give her the win. I like Shana in a Silver play.

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Gillian Robertson +175 vs Emily Whitmire -179 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Robertson has a lot of amateur experience and was relatively successful. I see this fight being a little closer than the line suggests and I was very impressed with Robertson’s efforts against Honchak. I like Gillian to catch Whitmire, possibly off her back and grab the sub. Taking a risk here. Bronze Play.

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An EPD fight could lead to an early finish and I think Robertson can grab it off his back. Add her to the lineup.

 

 

1. Barb Honchak -184 

2. Rachael Ostovich -308 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Montant De La Rosa -362 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Gerald Meerschaert -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Deanna Bennett -402 

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6. Andrew Sanchez -475 

7. Brett Johns -160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Roxanne Modafferi +170 

9. Terrion Ware +223 

10. Shana Dobson -203 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Gillian Robertson +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

1. Roxanne Modafferi +170 

2. Terrion Ware +223 

3. Gillian Robertson +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Brett Johns -160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Barb Honchak -184 

1. N/A

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack information.

Prop Bets

Barb Honchak to Win by Decision + 190 

Barb has gone the distance in 9 of her 12 pro fights and won 7-times. Additionally, Murphy has never been finished in her career, losing 3-times by decision. The line hasn’t been officially posted for this prop, but anything in around -120 or above is a solid play.

Gerald Meerschaert to Win by Submission +175 

While I wouldn’t be shocked to see their grappling skills create a stalemate leading to a decision, I like Meerschaert to eventually get in a position to finish against a fighter that is usually all or nothing on the floor.

Christina Marks/Montant De La Rosa 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Rachael Ostovich to Win inside the distance +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I just don’t think that Gevorgyan is going to hold up well in the UFC and this fight will prove it, she is just not ready. Ostovich is an underrated grappler and should be able to find the mat at some point. Either sub or top position GNP. Solid odds from -150 and greater.

Ariel Beck/Shana Dobson

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Gillian Robertson/Emily Whitmire 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Justin Gaethje $8700 
Fighter 2: Charles Oliveira $7700 
Fighter 3: David Teymur $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Francis Ngannou $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Razak Al Hassan $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Angela Magana $7100 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Alex Oliveira $8900 
Fighter 2: Felice Herrig $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4:  
 
 

Jose Aldo +255 vs Max Holloway -255 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will take a look at the remtach prop here, but a straight bet is out. Both guys looked like hell at the weigh-ins which could be a major factor in a 5-round fight. Pass.

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As mentioned above, Holloway looked like living death and is price is pretty steep. Let’s go elsewhere.

Alistair Overeem +205 vs Francis Ngannou -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a test for Ngannou and while I think he passes it with flying colours, I can’t have him as a top play at anything over -200. Ngannou makes the cut in the Silver section.

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I do believe that the big man gets the finish here, so I will play him in my Fantasy lineup. We are taking a flyer on a massive underdog to allow us to include multiple big favourties.

Henry Cejudo -269 vs Sergio Pettis +270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I think Cejudo takes this fight, but Pettis is a fighter on the rise who could shock us. I don’t feel this is the best place to inves your money. Keep an eye on Cejudo’s breathing after round 1 and consider a Live Bet on Pettis if Henry wins the round, but looks tired. Pass.

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I don’t see a finish here, despite Cejudo’s last result. Pass.

Eddie Alvarez +170 vs Justin Gaethje -175

Finally a fight we can bet strongly. Gaethje is a Gold play. He is simply going to “out-tough” Alvarez. Gaethje’s style is tailormade to exploit the question chin of a fighter that is willing to take damage, but is getting deeper into his career. Gold Play!

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Not surprisingly, JG is a must play. He is affordable, will fight for the finish, and will compile some solid numbers in the process. Add him.

Michelle Waterson +220 vs Tecia Torres -225 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Torres here and will probably work her in conjunction with Gaethje. She is tough to finish, works at a greater pace, and has superior cardio. Waterson needs an early finish, she won’t get it. Gold Play.

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This fight is probably going the distance, so I will pass.

Charles Oliveira +110 vs Paul Felder -105  

This is going to be interesting. I feel I have seen enough holes in Felder’s defensive grappling that CO will sneak in and sub him. If Do Bronx didn’t have such a history of folding in big fights, he would probably be a Gold Play. Silver for the Brazilian.

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I need a couple of dogs in my lineup and Charle can finish. He will most likely look to clinch, rotate to the back and synch up the RNC. Add him.

Alex Oliveira -218 vs Yancy Medeiros +224 

I like both guys, I just feel that Oliveira has more tools to work with and is more durable. He can knock him out, grind him out, or choke him out. I had him closer to -255, Gold Play.

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I considered him for my lineup, but there is so little wiggle room, he falls to a sub. Lots of ways to finish against an opponent that has been finished.

David Teymur -170 vs Drakkar Klose +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Teymur is the tighter striker and will land more often. My only concern is that Klose can wrestle him off his game. I’ve been very impressed with the Swede, I think he continues to grow and this price is solid. Gold Play.

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Teymur throws with solid volume and has multiple finishing tools. He is also affordable, add him!

Cortney Casey +115 vs Felice Herrig -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lots of people on Casey here. Herrig should be able to exploit her on the mat and make her pay for her defensive gaps. Herrig has been improving in all areas while Casey still has one clear vulnerability. Silver play for Felice.

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I considered Felice for my lineup. She is pretty inexpensive and has a solid chance of landing a submission win. She lost her spot when I added Magana and created extra cash flow. Sub.

Razak Al-Hassan -238 vs Sabah Homasi +220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A pair of big hitters going at it here. Al-Hassan has the better chin which is going to be key. There aren’t a lot of dogs on this card that I like so I will most likely play a prop bet on him in the Bronze section to create some diversity.

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Yup. The guy is a perfect fit for this type of contest. He fights to finish and finish quick. Homasi has the lesser chin that has been cracked. Make it happen!

Dominick Reyes -425 vs Jeremy Kimball +450 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

HWs at this price aren’t even worth a look, anything can change with a big punch or a prolonged fight leading to exhaustion. Pass.

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Reyes is a tempting fighter, but he is just too expensive.

Allen Crowder +195 vs Justin Willis -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love this play on how underwhelming I felt Crowder looked in his last bout. I wish I had one more big league fight for Willis. Justin is bigger and better where Crowder does his best work. Bronze play based on the unknown.

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Pass.

Amanda Cooper -440 vs Angela Magana +415 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. No explanation needed.

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Cooper is vulnerable on the mat and as bad as Magana has looked, I could see her shocking up. I’m using her in hopes she can score a few point, but more importantly, she allows us to buy big elsewhere. Add her.

1. Justin Gaethje -175 

2. Tecia Torres -225 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Alex Oliveira -218 

4. David Teymur -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Henry Cejudo -269 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Razak Al-Hassan -238 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Dominick Reyes -425 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Francis Ngannou -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Max Holloway -255 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Justin Willis -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Felice Herrig -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Charles Oliveira +110 

13. Amanda Cooper -440 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Charles Oliveira +110 

2. Justin Gaethje -175 

3. David Teymur -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Felice Herrig -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Alex Oliveira to Win Inside the Distance +125

1. Angela Magana +415:  As bad as Magana has been, I just don’t see the reason Cooper is such a massive favourite. Take a small play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Jose Aldo/Max Holloway 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alistair Overeem/Francis Ngannou Total Rounds Over 1.5 +120 

At Heavyweight taking the Over is risky, especially considering who we are looking at here. Overeem will recognize the danger and remain very defensive early like he has in previous fights. He has gone 2 rounds or more in 5 of his last 6. Ngannou has been finishing foes early, but I think he will also remain patient before bursting in against a dangerous opponent. A finish, but a later finish.

Henry Cejudo to Win by Decision -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are going to play the percentages here and take Cejudo back to a win on the scorecards after he shocked many with his knockout of Reis. Pettis will survive, but he will spend too much time on the floor. Book it.

Justin Gaethje to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +120 

I considered the Under, but it might take a little more time to get the finish. I’m shocked that this play is currently still sitting at plus money. Eddie’s chin is not good enough to survive how this fight is going to go down. Bet accordingly.

Tecia Torres to Win by Decision -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Tecia has gone the distance 8-times in victory compared to just a single victory by finish. With some steeper odds on this card we need to find ourselves a few solid leans, this is one of them. Play Tecia on the cards with a solid return.

Charles Oliveira/Paul Felder

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Oliveira to Win Inside the Distance +125 

Oliveira has power and submission skills and I see Mederios being vulnerable to both. With this play sitting with a solid return, let’s keep both options in play.

Razak Al-Hassan/Sabah Homasi Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

These guys are going to come out swinging and someone is going down. Homasi has been stopped before, so I am banking on him- play the Under.

Dominick Reyes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -155 

Reyes has been smashing people and Kimball is going to be there to be hit. I like the reach and power of Dominick to combine for the perfect storm to put Kimball down. I considered the Under 1.5, but I’ll give him a little more time to work with.

Allen Crowder/Justin Willis 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Amanda Cooper/Angela Magana

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White