UFC 217: Bisping vs St-Pierre- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Curtis Blaydes $8000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Cody Garbrandt $8300 
Fighter 3: Paulo Costa $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Joe Duffy $8500 
Fighter 5: Corey Anderson $7200 
Fighter 6: Walt Harris $8800 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Mickey Gall $8400 
Fighter 2: Georges St-Pierre $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Jorge Masvidal $7600 
Fighter 4: Ricardo Ramos $7500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
  
 

Georges St-Pierre -105 vs Michael Bisping +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Honestly, everything is out the window here when it comes to this fight. I’m on GSP, but Bisping winning this fight is just as likely. GSP bucks the normal trends. He is different. That is why I am not as concerned about the layoff as I would be with other fighters. The size factor? It could be an issue, but Bisping isn’t nearly as big as some of the other guys at MW. I’ve got GSP in my Silver section, but he could easily drop to a Bronze play considering everything we don’t know about him.

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I do have GSP in my DK lineup as a spare. He is relatively cheap and over 5 rounds he has the ability to score some decent points with volume and takedowns. I don’t expect to see him pick up a finish, but Bisping’s chin is far from perfect.

Cody Garbrandt -175 vs TJ Dillashaw +165 

Both fighters fought Cruz and while Garbrandt won and TJ lost (a close fight), that isn’t my only reason for backing the champ. I think he is the more natural puncher and packs better power. TJ’s defense isn’t as good as we think it is and he relies on his wrestling a lot to make up for it. I think Cody knocks him out, but either way he is a Gold play for me.

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At $8300, Garbrandt is still pretty cheap and TJ chin is beatable. Look for Cody to take advantage of Dillashaw’s tendency to hang his hands. If he doesn’t score the stoppage, look for a 5-rounds compilation of strikes to produce a decent point total for the champ. Add him.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -545 vs Rose Namajunas +550 

Nothing doing here. Rose is better than this line suggests. I might consider a counter bet, but a Prop option is definitely in the works. Pass

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JJ is very expensive and there are cheaper options out there that will produce. Pass.

Jorge Masvidal +160 vs Stephen Thompson -170 

I’m hanging with the post-title fight letdown scenario here. Masvidal’s struggles in close fights is a little concerning, but I think he can do enough here to score the win. Maybe with enough aggression, he could get the stoppage from close range. Masvidal is still hungry for a shot at the title while Thompson needs to get over his 2 failed attempts to grab the title and that can be tough. Silver Play.

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At $7600, Masvidal offers you a chance at having a little more diversity in your lineup. Spare list.

Johny Hendricks +248 vs Paulo Borrachinha -270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Hendricks took a massive step back in his last fight and the pressure is on here. He did make weight which is good for him, but I think the size and power of Borrachinha is going to be a problem. Hendricks has to get inside and wrestle him until his cardio goes for the final bell rings. That could prove difficult because of his issues with reach. Borrachinha is part of my Gold Pack.

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Borrachinha is a 1st round killer and Hendricks has been knocked out on multiple occasions. This is a make or break pick. If Borrachinha gets held down he is going to lay a massive goose egg. Conversely, he could easily score you 100+ points with an early finish.

James Vick +130 vs Joseph Duffy -140 

If Vick was a better wrestler I would definitely give him a look here, but I feel Duffy has the skills to shut his takedowns down. Duffy is the better striker and has good power. Vick is simply way too hittable for my liking. I will add him to my Gold Plays.

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Duffy can finish on the feet and on the mat. Vick got blasted by Dariush and Duffy should be able to replicate those issues. Add him.

Walt Harris -340 vs Mark Godbeer +310 

I might throw Harris into a Bronze parlay. I feel he wins this fight short of getting caught with something significant. I might also leave him off the card altogether.

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Harris is another killer that knows how to finish. Godbeer’s questionable cardio will put him in harm’s way eventually if he survives the early exchanges. Add him.

Ovince Saint Preux -142 vs Corey Anderson +138 

I like the dog here. As much as I don’t trust Anderson’s chin, I really don’t trust OSP’s cardio. Under the best of circumstances I don’t like it, but on short notice, it is even more concerning. OSP has always had issues with wrestlers or fighters that can control him in the clinch and that goes hand in hand with his cardio issues. Anderson can do that. Anderson is a Silver bet for me.

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Corey Anderson is very cheap. At only $7200, his inclusion in your lineup makes everyone else affordable. He has shown he can score with takedowns and his volume is pretty solid. If he gets on top and OSP starts to fade, look for Corey to work for a finish.

Randy Brown+105 vs Mickey Gall -105 

I have seen a lot of people hammering on Brown, the very slight dog. In my experience, when a dog is super popular- fade him. I feel Gall has the grappling-heavy skill set to exploit his vulnerabilities and the size and athleticism to make it count as well. Don’t be shocked to see this line flip by fight time. Gall is a Silver play for me.

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Gall has 4 pro wins, all by RNC all in the opening round. He isn’t subtle about his approach and comes out from the start looking for the finish. He is a must-have in the fantasy world. Add him.

Oleksiy Oliynyk +300 vs Curtis Blaydes -330 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am going to pass on a side bet here. Blaydes should win, but his proclivity to taking his opponent’s down plays into the incredibly battled-tested submission game of Oliynyk. No Play, but maybe a look at a prop option.

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Blaydes does get the call to my Fantasy lineup. He is a monster and hits hard. Oliynyk has been finished before and if Blaydes unloads on him he could find the stoppage again. Whenever you can grab a big HW on your team for $8000 he is worth a shot.

Aiemann Zahabi +185 vs Ricardo Ramos -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There was some major line movement here and people have been scrambling to see why. Honestly, I wasn’t impressed with Zahabi and felt he only won because his opponent gassed. Ramos is a little more tested and aggressive. This is the type of fight you could probably leave off your card altogether, but to add a little diversity I will consider him as a Bronze bet.

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Ramos is still the Fantasy dog as their lines don’t move like the better lines. This makes him a possible addition from the bench if you are looking to mix things up a little bit. He has a strong submission pedigree and remains active on the feet.

 

1. Walt Harris -340 

2. Joanna Jedrzejczyk -545 

3.  Cody Garbrandt -175 

4. Paulo Borrachinha -270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Joseph Duffy -140 

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6. Curtis Blaydes -330 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Mickey Gall -105 

8. Corey Anderson +138 

9. Jorge Masvidal +160 

10. Georges St-Pierre -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Ricardo Ramos -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

1. Corey Anderson +138 

2. Jorge Masvidal +160 

3. Georges St-Pierre -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Mickey Gall -105 

5. Joseph Duffy -140 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

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Prop Bets

Cody Garbrandt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200 

The emotions in this fight could very-well result in both men coming out cautious which can kill a finish prop. That being said, their (no pun intended) alpha male personas could completely override that. Garbrandt hits hard and TJ is open, especially for counters. We have all probably seen the footage at this point of their sparring session. That doesn’t mean anything, but over 5-rounds I see Cody tested Dillashaw’s chin at least once.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk/Rose Namajunas Fight Doesn’t Go to a Decision +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was pleasantly surprised by this line. With both girls being as savage as they are, I expected something around -150 for a combined finish prop. At plus money, this is a must play. JJ is overwhelming with her offense and I honestly can’t see Rose holding up over 5 rounds, especially if JJ targets her body. Conversely, Rose’s submission game is nasty and could easily bring about a finish if she earns a strong position early. Bank on it.

Paulo Borrachinha to Win by TKO/KO -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Does Paulo know any other way to win? Hendricks is coming off a knockout loss and has shown to have some issue recovering once he gets rocked. The guys at MW pack a big punch and Borrachinha is no exception, look for him to land early and often eventually putting Hendricks down.

James Vick/Joseph Duffy 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Walt Harris to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -165 

Harris is 10/10 when it comes to winning by knockout. I have him winning this fight, so taking him at anything below -200 to win by knockout seems like a very sound bet. Godbeer is a good striker, but he struggles under pressure and his cardio is pretty weak. I will give Harris more than the 1.5 rounds to get it done, but he might not need it.

Mickey Gall to Win by Submission +225 

Like Harris above, Gall has won 100% of his fights via a specific method. Brown is vulnerable on the mat and has struggled with lesser ground fighters. Gall is still green, but he will stick with what works here and go for the ground-based victory. Make sure you cash in.

Oleksiy Oliynyk/Curtis Blaydes 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Aiemann Zahabi/Ricardo Ramos

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White