UFC 216: Ferguson vs Lee- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Tony Ferguson $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Fabricio Werdum $8700 
Fighter 3: Walt Harris $9200 
Fighter 4: Thales Leites $7900 
Fighter 5: Cody Stamann $7100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Marco Beltran $8000 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Beneil Dariush $9000 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Kevin Lee +207 vs Tony Ferguson -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

It took Lee twice to make weight, that could drive his price up and Ferg will be worth even less. If Lee’s performance is hampered by the cut, Ferg is going to drown him. My only concern here is that Ferg gives up a bad position early and Lee capitalizes. Ferguson’s striking is simply going to be too much. Ferguson is a Gold Play.

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Ferg’s volume and constant threat of scoring a finish makes him a must-have. Toss in that he will cost you less than $9000 and you can’t pass him by Lee’s chin and cardio leave him wide open to getting stopped. Add him.

Demetrious Johnson -985 vs Ray Born +950 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is clearly a No Play. Could DJ lose this fight? Quite possibly. I might look at a prop bet, but no straight bet here.

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DJ is very expensive and will severely impact the cash you can spend on the rest of your lineup. Pass.

Derrick Lewis +222 vs Fabricio Werdum -240 

Lewis has hit his ceiling. He has admitted his focus isn’t there and his back is in rough shape. If things don’t go his way early he can get discouraged and his iffy cardio only further complicates things. He doesn’t like to get hit and the aggression of Werdum will keep him backing up. Short of Fabricio walking into something huge and getting knocked out, the former champion is a bargain. Gold Play.

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Werdum pushes a solid pace and Lewis has been knocked out on multiple occasions. Any of 3 scenarios could produce some big points- an early finish, a high volume decision, or a later stoppage. Add him.

Kalindra Faria -185 vs Mara Romero Borella +190 

There are a lot of x-factors involved in this fight. Faria appears to be the better fighter and the price isn’t terrible, but with a couple of other better options on this card, I will either use her in a Bronze play or not at all.

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Not worth a look here. There are better finishers in her price range.

Beneil Dariush -215 vs Evan Dunham +200 

Dunham is rolling, but he is rolling against lesser competition. He has struggled when given a step up and that is what Dariush represents. Unless Evan can find consistent success with his takedown game, he is going to struggle to match the impact of Dariush’s constantly improving striking attack. The chin of BD is a concern, but Dunham doesn’t pack the type of power that Barboza does. Gold Play here on the fighter that is better than his opponent in almost every category.

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Dunham can be finished, but he is no easy out. I will pass here with Dariush at $9000 as a starter, but I will consider him as a spare based on his volume game.

Cody Stamann +140 vs Tom Duquesnoy -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m rolling with the dog here based on 2 key factors. Stamann is a strong wrestler and he has excellent cardio. Duquesnoy was under attack early and struggling with the wrestling of Williams before Williams gassed out. Unless Tom can catch him early, I expect to see Stamann push him, wear him down, and dominate with his wrestling from start to finish. As a smallish BW, fighting a strong wrestler can be an eye-opener. I’ll swing for it here and play Stamann as a Silver play.

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At $7100, we are getting a solid deal for a fighter that can put up some big takedown numbers. Stamann is a pretty active top position striker as well so he will compliment his wrestling production nicely. The bargain barrel price allows us to play a couple of big favs. We have to find bargains somewhere.

Bobby Green +180 vs Lando Vannata -190 

Vannata got a lot of love for his performance against Ferguson and he stopped Makdessi with ease. Teymur showed the holes in his style. Green will as well. Green is quick and can slip and counter. His boxing game will serve to outpoint the kick-heavy offense of Lando. Additionally, Lando will slow down because of his reliance on kicks and that should create further openings for Green to engage both on the mat and the feet. Green gets back on track. Silver play.

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I don’t see a finish here and Green isn’t a top-notch volume striker. There are better options.

Pearl Gonzalez +130 vs Poliana Botelho -135 

Similar to the other WMMA fight on the card, this fight is a bit of a tough read. One girl is debuting and the other is making just her second UFC appearance. Botelho is cutting down to the weight class for the first time and uses a style that can be very taxing. Gonzalez needs to survive the early attack and then take this fight over as Poliana slows down. Bronze play.

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I will leave this fight alone. Pearl could snap up a submission, but my cash is spent better elsewhere.

Mark Godbeer +290 vs Walt Harris -315 

I don’t see many avenues for Godbeer to win this fight short of landing a lucky punch. Harris is bigger, faster, and hits harder. He also has the better cardio. I had Harris closer to -375, so I still see some value here. I will most likely pair him up with one of my other Gold bet options.

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Harris has finished all of his wins, almost all in the opening round. He is expensive, but he is worth it. Harris is a luxury buy made affordable by our dogs.

John Moraga +500 vs Magomed Bibulatov -500

Nothing here. Bibulatov is a prospect on the rise, but the price is untouchable against a step up in competition. Pass.

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Same here. Moraga is too tough.

Brad Tavares -171 vs Thales Leites +165 

I was surprised to see Leites as this big of a dog. Tavares is a decision machine and he has trouble at times distancing himself against solid competition. I wasn’t impressed with his win over Elias, even though I picked him. I felt he had trouble creating separation and then didn’t do that much at range when he did get away. Leites has power in his hands and power in his kicks. His strong clinch game should score some key control time. If Tavares spends too much time on the wall and the floor, he will struggle to close the gap on the feet unless Thales completely gasses. Silver play.

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Tavares’s chin is a question mark and he has been finished on multiple occasions. If Thales puts him on his back, he could lock up a submission as well. Leites offers some decent volume and his takedown game could produce. He is a solid play for the price.

Marco Beltran +110 vs Matt Schnell -117 

This fight could really go either way. Schnell’s chin has looked brutal so far and Beltran has at least shown he can win at this level. This is a Bronze play or nothing.

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I will take Beltran here. He probably won’t get a lot of looks from most players, but the chin of Schnell makes Marco a nice sleeper play. Add him.

 

1. Demetrious Johnson -985 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Fabricio Werdum -240 

3. Tony Ferguson -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Walt Harris -315 

5. Beneil Dariush -215 

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6. Magomed Bibulatov -500 

7. Thales Leites +165 

8. Cody Stamann +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Bobby Green +180 

10. Kalindra Faria -185 

11. Pearl Gonzalez +130 

12. Marco Beltran +110 

 

1. Thales Leites +165 

2. Bobby Green +180 

3. Cody Stamann +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Pearl Gonzalez +130 

5. Marco Beltran +110 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

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Prop Bets

Tony Ferguson to Win Inside the Distance -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I certainly looked at the specific finish options, but I felt this was the better way to go. Ferg hits hard and Lee’s chin is far from perfect. I could easily see Tony cracking Lee with something big and finishing him prior to even getting the fight on the mat. Conversely, Ferguson seems pretty committed to his grappling game when he is looking to finish. I will keep all scenarios in play here.

Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision +170 

DJ has shown on multiple occasions that he can finish. Not only can he finish, he can finish top level guys. Borg is a tough out and will make DJ work for it on the mat. Borg’s ability to scramble and transition will limit DJ’s willingness to go for subs as he won’t want to give up position. Taking a risk here with Borg going 5 for the first time in his career, but I will take a shot.

Fabricio Werdum to Win by Decision +200 

I wouldn’t be shocked if this fight doesn’t hit the mat at all. Lewis won’t want to tangle with Werdum’s BJJ and Fabricio should have some trepidation of letting Lewis land from top position. If Werdum pushes the pace he could get him out of there, but Lewis’s style of backtracking under pressure to the point of almost running away could keep him out of trouble. He almost went a full 4 with Hunt, he could go a full 3 in defeat here.

Cody Stamann/Tom Duquesnoy

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Mark Godbeer/Walt Harris Total Rounds Under 1.5 -125 

I have Harris winning this, but at HW all it takes is one to end the fight. I will keep both fighter’s finishing skills in play here and play the Under. Harris inside round 1 is sitting at -110 which is something you could look at considering he has finished all but one of his wins inside the opening 5.

Brad Tavares/Thales Leites

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Marco Beltran/Matt Schnell 

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