UFC 215: Nunes vs Schevchenko- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Valentina Shevchenko $8100 
Fighter 2: Neil Magny $7600 
Fighter 3: Sara McMann $9000 
Fighter 4: Ilir Latifi $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Adriano Martins $9000 
Fighter 6: Arjan Bhullar $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Gilbert Melendez $8000 
Fighter 2: Ashlee Evans-Smith $8700 
Fighter 3: Alex White $7400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Amanda Nunes +110 vs Valentina Shevchenko -120 

We are already down one title fight, hopefully this was one holds up for another 24-hours or so. I love Shevchenko. I liked her in the first fight and I like her here. She kicked it into geat a round too late in their first encounter, but I think she learns from her lesson and starts early here. Even if she doesn’t, she has 2 extra rounds to make it count. I feel like Nunes pulled out of the last fight because she was a little scare. Shev has improved and she will push Nunes until she breaks. Gold Play here!

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Over 5 rounds the challenger is going to compile a lot of points and a finish in the second half is very much in the cards. You can’t go wrong here at this price. #1 with a Bullett!

Neil Magny +170 vs Rafael Dos Anjos -155 

RDA is talented, but the length of Magny is going to give him issues. Everyone is talking about how he smoked Cerrone who is tall, but Magny is 3 inches taller and has a 7″ longer reach. Magny’s cardio is superior and the added muscle/ size of RDA at 170 will slow him down. Magny jabs him early and pulls away when Dos Anjos starts to slow down. Strong Silver play here.

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Magny offers a solid volume game and shouldn’t have much of a drop off as the fight progresses. RDA likes to move forward, but he is going to get hit a lot in the process. Magny is very affordable and while I don’t expect a finish, 65-90 sig strikes and a couple of takedowns will still be worth the price.

Henry Cejudo -325 vs Wilson Reis +295 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight gets a bump up to the main card with the title fight scrapped. I’m still going to pass. I might take a look at a prop option here, but Reis is better than this line indicates. Pass.

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Nothing here.

Ilir Latifi +125 vs Tyson Pedro -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A lot of people are on Pedro here, but Latifi is a big step up from the fighters that Pedro has beat. Pedro is going to struggle to get Latifi to the mat and will have equal issues controlling him on the inside. Latifi needs to drag this fight into rounds 2 and 3 where Pedro has never fought before. Latifi’s physical style will push him and he should experience a bit of a slowdown as the fight progresses. Latifi eventually lands something big, probably a right hand, to the win. Silver Play.

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Latifi has finished his opponent in the majority of his wins and I struggle to see Pedro holding up over 3 full rounds when he never has before. Each of the Aussie’s fights have progressively got longer with a step up in talent, so I expect something similar here- with a different outcome. Add him.

Jeremy Stephens +110 vs Gilbert Melendez -110 

Gil debuting in a new weight class after a layoff are concerns, but I see him being a step above Stephens. I always have felt he could make 145 and this could be a good thing for him. Gil’s cardio is better and his chin is solid. He needs to remain technical and Stephens will struggle to land enough strikes to win a decision. Melendez has lost to elite level fighters in close fights, he will do enough here to get the job done. Good Value makes him a Gold Play.

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Gil is affordable if you want to vary your lineups, but I don’t think he stops Stephens and his volume is a little hit and miss. He is a sub.

Ketlen Vieira +210 vs Sara McMann -205 

Not surprisingly this fight comes down to McMann’s wrestling; takedowns = win vs no takedowns = no win. Vieira’s striking looked good enough to be concerned about, especially if she gets off to a fast start. I feel like Sara’s ability to rebound and sub Davis was huge and did a lot for her confidence. I see her continuing to dominate with her wrestling. Silver play.

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Takedowns will score points for McMann and her improving submission game could produce a finish. Her high price and the fact that she is a woman could scare people away, I like it and she fits my budget. Add her.

Sarah Moras +240 vs Ashlee Evans-Smith -227 

Moras has never really impressed me and the layoff probably won’t help. If on her game, AES has the tools to win this fight. She needs to score takedowns and/or work in the clinch effectively. She underperformed against Vieira so I am expected a much better performance here. Still not going to invest a lot, probably a No Play or a Bronze parlay leg at best.

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AES can finish and Moras’s TDD has been suspect. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her put up some decent points here. I’ve got her as a sub.

Gavin Tucker -230 vs Rick Glenn +240 

Glenn is no easy out and Tucker is taking a big step up in competition here. I think Tucker has the tools to get the better of Glenn here, but I’m not thrilled about the price. This is a No Play or a Bronze option at best.

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Glenn is tough as hell, I don’t expect a finish. Pass

Mitch Clarke +190 vs Alex White -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

White is still a raw talent, but I think this is a good matchup for him. Clarke isn’t a great wrestler and his striking is pretty sub par. White should get the better of him as long as he doesn’t make a mistake and end up on the bottom. Clarke hangs in there, but White gets the better of him- mostly on the feet. I expected to see White somewhere around -230. Good value, Gold Play.

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White is the Fantasy underdog which has me scratching my head a little. He might not get the finish, but Clarke will be there to be hit- a lot. I’ve got him as a sub.

Luis Henrique +185 vs Arjan Bhullar -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I feel like I am saying this a lot, but Bhullar is a No Play or a Bronze play. He is untested and Henrique is just nasty enough to upend him here. A lot of people are banking on Henrique’s cardio, but honestly, I don’t see it. He tends to gas and only survives if his opponent gasses harder. Bhullar has a strong track record in longer fights and his wrestling should hold up here. Close fight early, Arjan pulls away in the middle of round 2. Bronze play.

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Henrique has been finished in both of his UFC defeats and Bhullar’s style of fighting; takedowns and strikes will give him a good chance of making it 3. He is affordable- add him to your lineup.

Adriano Martins -475 vs Kajan Johnson +450 

Nothing here. The line is too huge and if Martins lays another eff, KJ could outwork him. Pass.

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I do have Martins in my DK lineup. He hits very hard and has lots of ways to deploy that power. KJ’s chin is a major concern and is aggression will walk him directly into the line of fire. Martins needs a finish to score points, he gets one here.

 

1. Valentina Shevchenko -120 

2. Alex White -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Sara McMann -205 

4. Adriano Martins -475 

5. Gilbert Melendez -110 

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6. Henry Cejudo -325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Gavin Tucker -230 

8. Ashlee Evans-Smith -227 

9. Arjan Bhullar -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Ilir Latifi +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Neil Magny +170 

 

1. Valentina Shevchenko to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +500 

2. Valentina Shevchenko -120 

3. Neil Magny +170 

4. Ilir Latifi +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Gilbert Melendez -110 

1. Luis Henrique +185 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Betting Scenario.

Prop Bets

Amanda Nunes/Valentina Shevchenko 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Henry Cejudo to Win by Decision -149 

This is the play to make if you plan to back Cejudo and need a little more value. Prior to Johnson, Reis hadn’t been finished since 2011 against heavier opponents. Also excluding Johnson, Cejudo has 7 decisions on his record since his last fight to end inside the distance. The ground games most likely cancel each other out and Cejudo gets the better of him standing over 15 minutes. Play the decision.

Ilir Latifi/Tyson Pedro Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115 

This play keeps both fighter’s finishing skills in our corner which is important. Pedro has never been out of the opening round and Latifi has finished his foe in all but one of his wins. He has also been finished on multiple occasions. Solid play either way.

Gilbert Melendez to Win by Decision +175 

Stephens may be a flawed fighter, but he isn’t easy to get out of there. I think Melendez will work behind his jab and try to remain technical from start to finish to avoid the big heat coming back his way. This should limit the chances of either man landing a stoppage. Hit it hard.

Ketlen Vieira/Sara McMann 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Luis Henrique/Arjan Bhullar 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Adriano Martins/Kajan Johnson 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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