UFC 214 & UFN 114- “Golden Bones and Heartbreak”

 
 

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFN 114

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Sergio Pettis $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Randa Markos $7900 
Fighter 3: Alejandro Perez $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Alan Jouban $8700 
Fighter 5: Jack Hermansson $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Jose Quinonez $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Rani Yahya $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Dustin Ortiz $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
 
 
 

Brandon Moreno -155 vs Sergio Pettis +146 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moreno is 3-0 in the UFC, but he was losing the Ortiz fight, Benoit was close, and Smolka made a big mistake. He really hasn’t put together a complete and dominant performance. Pettis’s striking is really slick and that is going to take away some of the aggression of Moreno. If Sergio can fend off the early TDs, look for him to take over the fight with superior footwork and a more refinded attack. Even with Moreno fighting at home, I expect to see him start to slow down in the middle. Good fight, Silver Play.

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I have Pettis on my team. He is affordable and his performance against Moraga suggested that his punching power is starting to develop. I’m guessing that a lot of people will be on Moreno at the end with his finishing skills. Book him!

Alexa Grasso -144 vs Randa Markos +135 

Grasso missed weight which makes you wonder how she will hold up in a demanding fight. I feel she was overly tentative vs Herrig because of the threat of the takedown. Markos is a more takedown oriented fighter, which should back Grasso up even more and that right side offense that Randa offers will exploit the openings in Alexa’s D. I’m not sold on Grasso and Markos has momentum, Solid Silver play here.

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Randa can finish if given the chance and the takedowns should be there. I’m not sold on her volume striking, but look for her to do enough on the mat to score us some decent points.

Alan Jouban -160 vs Niko Price +151 

Price finally getting a full camp here after a pair of short notice bouts. I wasn’t really impressed with how his last fight went. He looked out of sorts dealing with a more technically sound striker. He got the win, but it was far from a complete effort. Jouban hits hard and is the better striker, the biggest issue is his chin. He has to avoid getting drawn into a brawl and fight long. I think he pulls it off here. Good fight, Silver play.

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Jouban works pretty consistently and has stopping power. He should land with decent volume against Price and we saw Niko get dropped several times in his last fight. A finish is not out of the question add him.

Rashad Evans +115 vs Sam Alvey -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Evans has struggled with Southpaws. Alvey is one. Alvey has struggled with volume strikers that rely heavily on their kicking game. Evans is not that. Rashad needs this fight badly, but Alvey will land the better strikes and potentially even hurt him leading to a finish. Evans can win this fight, but I just don’t have much faith at this point and stylistically Alvey has the edge. Bronze Play.

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I considered taking Alvey here, but if he can’t score the finish he isn’t a volume machine. I will pass.

Alejandro Perez -120 vs Andre Soukhamthath +111 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Perez took a very odd approach to the Morales fight, but that actually might work out here. He needs to let Soukhamthath wear himself out charging forward, counter strike, land leg kicks, and then take over as Andre slow down with the altitude. Perez gets the nod at home. Gold Play.

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Perez has some pop and his volume is decent. The key here will be the slowdown that Soukhamthath experiences at altitude. Perez will pour it on and pile up the volume or score the finish. Add him.

Brad Scott +225 vs Jack Hermansson -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Unless Scott lands something huge and takes Hermansson out, he is going to struggle to match his offensive output. Hermansson is the better volume striker and will get the better of the wrestling. His style will also carry better as the fight moves into the second half. Gold play.

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Hermansson is expensive, but a solid play. He hits hard and throws a lot. Look for takedowns to play a big role. A finish could certainly materialize. Add him.

Dustin Ortiz -183 vs Hector Sandoval +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ortiz was looking good vs Moreno, but he couldn’t close the show. He is a solid grappler with a good gas tank and striking to fall back on. I think he outlasts Sandoval here. This is his fight to win if he can avoid getting cracked. Only the best have beat him, Sandoval is not there. Gold Play.

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Ortiz is a sub for me. His pace and output will produce and a finish could come because he simply wears his opponent out. He is a little expensive for a guy with a history of decision or else he would be in my starting lineup.

Henry Briones +195 vs Rani Yahya -210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Briones didn’t look well on the scale and the price on Yahya has dropped. Rani is so undervalued in most of his fights I’ve nailed 4 big upsets backing him. He needs 2 rounds here before his gas tank goes, but I’m not sure Briones can hold up. I will back him as a part of my Gold play here with more confidence after seeing Briones on the scale.

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Takedowns, transitions, and a potential finish is all on the table here. If Rani tires too quickly his production will suffer. I’ve got him on my bench but will work him in for diversification.

Deigo Rivas +240 vs Jose Quinonez -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m going to pass here. We don’t really know where these guys are at after so much time away. Young fighters develop significantly between fights. Pass.

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I’ve got Quinonez in my lineup. His improving wrestling will score points against Rivas’s questionable TDD and if he gets to his back an RNC finish or GNP stoppage is there to be had.

Joseph Morales +115 vs Roberto Sanchez -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’ve got Morales as a Bronze play, but he might not make the cut at all. Both guys have their flaws and are debuting. Should be a fun scrap, I won’t have much on the line.

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I will pass here.

Alvaro Herrera +195 vs Jordan Rinaldi -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Rinaldi should take this in spades unless Herrera cracks him early. Herrera has some massive gaps in his game and Rinaldi has the skills to exploit them. The cut to LW and altitude plus the takedowns of the American will be his undoing. Silver play.

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Rinaldi is too expensive for my liking, despite how wide a margin he should win this fight by.

1. Jack Hermansson -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Rani Yahya -210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Dustin Ortiz -183 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Alejandro Perez -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Alan Jouban -160 

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6. Jordan Rinaldi -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Randa Markos +135 

8. Sergio Pettis +146 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Jose Quinonez -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Sam Alvey -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Joseph Morales +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12.

1. Randa Markos +135 

2. Sergio Pettis +146 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Sam Alvey -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Alejandro Perez -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Joseph Morales +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. N/A

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Brandon Moreno/Sergio Pettis Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance -150 

Moreno has been finishing good grapplers and if he gets Pettis in a compromising position, he will finish him too. I was impressed with Pettis’s striking in his last fight and I’m not sure Moreno can take 5-rounds of getting tagged. Someone gets the job done, but the 2.5 rounds might not be enough. Give them a little extra time.

Alan Jouban/Niko Price Total Rounds Under 1.5 +157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’ve been staying away from the Under 1.5’s recently, but I think this one is worth a look. Both guys hit hard and are aggressive. Jouban has been hurt multiple times and finished. Price got tagged several times in his last fight and put on his butt. I think we see an early finish here.

Brad Scott/Jack Hermansson 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Dustin Ortiz Wins Inside the Distance +540 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ortiz isn’t known for his finishing skills, but he is a workhorse. That led to him finishing Gates on the mat, I can see a similar scenario playing out here. Sandoval might hold his own early, but the altitude (I’m saying this a lot) will catch up with him and Ortiz will maul him on the mat and in the clinch. It might be late, but Dusty dusts him.

Rani Yahya to Win by Submission +190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like to take my shots at a plus money submission prop for a talented grappler. That is what we have here. Yahya is going to wear him out and either get his back for an RNC or lock on an arm triangle for the win. Book it.

Joseph Morales/Roberto Sanchez 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alvaro Herrera/Jordan Rinaldi 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White

 

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFC 214

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Cris Cyborg $9600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Donald Cerrone $7800 
Fighter 3: Jimi Manuwa $8800 
Fighter 4: Kailin Curran $7900 
Fighter 5: Renan Barao $7800 
Fighter 6: Renato Moicano $8200 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Tyron Woodley $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4:  
 

Daniel Cormier +240 vs Jon Jones -249  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Unless something drastic happens, we are finally going to get this fight. I have Jones, but he has been off for a while and is a sizeable favourite. Not a combo to go all in on. I will either use Jones to augment a secondary bet in the Silver or Bronze section, or just leave him off the card altogether.

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I would not be shocked to see a finish materialize here, but I’m going to leave “Bones” off my dance card. Cormier is no easy out and your money can be spent better elsewhere.

Tyron Woodley -195 vs Demian Maia +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love this bet and I am not a Woodley fan. Unless Maia jumps him early and Tyron lets him walk into an RNC, I don’t see Maia being able to get Woodley on the ground or even close the distance effectively enough to set something up from the clinch. Masvidal game Maia issues and Woodley is too strong, too quick, and too good a wrestler. I’ve got the Champ in a Gold play.

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Woodley is going to be a spare. At $8700 he is too expensive if he can’t get the finish. His offense doesn’t flow, it explodes. If he can score a finish, he can still win, but he isn’t going to secure you a lot of points. I almost passed altogether, but I will use Tyron as a sub.

Cris Cyborg -1050 vs Tonya Evinger +970 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Clearly, we aren’t betting this fight and I don’t see enough out of Evinger to consider a counter bet. I will pass and look at the prop options.

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Yeah, we are playing Cyborg here. I was surprised she only came in at $9600, I thought she would be higher. I have several dogs that I am playing so Cyborg is affordable and doesn’t cripple my spending power.

Robbie Lawler -150 vs Donald Cerrone +139 

This is another fight we weren’t sure if we would see take place. Lawler is battle tested, but how much more can his body take? Cerrone isn’t unstoppable either, but I think he is in a better spot. Cowboy has shown the ability to rebound from defeat. Conversely, Lawler lost his title and is facing an uphill climb to get back into it. I think Cerrone’s more diverse striking attack will be the key here. Should be a great fight either way. Bronze Play for Cerrone.

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I don’t see this fight going the distance and I’ve got Cerrone winning it. That makes this a solid Fantasy play. Watch for Cowboy to land that back right high kick against the southpaw stance of Lawler. Add him.

Jimi Manuwa -172 vs Volkan Oezdemir +161 

I really haven’t been impressed with Oezdemir despite his 2-0 start. Manuwa, on the other hand, looked really good in his last fighting nullifying the wrestling and letting his hands go. Manuwa’s striking is more proven against far better competition and Oezdemir doesn’t have the wrestling to trouble him if things aren’t going his way. Gold Play for Jimi.

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What Manuwa hits, Manuwa stops. Look for Oezdemir to get in trouble when he attempts to push forward and be the aggressor. Manuwa stops him inside the first 7-8 minutes. Add him.

Ricardo Lamas +110 vs Jason Knight -112 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Knight is coming in on short notice as the less established fighter, but still the betting fav. This is a big step up in competition for him. Lamas is a solid striker with good wrestling. He is going to deal with the aggression of Knight far better than anyone has before him. Knight can attack off his back, but Lamas has dealt with some pretty decent ground fighters in the past and come out on top. I think Lamas takes over this fight in the second half as Knight slows down due to the lack of a camp and his early aggression. Silver Play.

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Knight is a tough out and Lamas isn’t a high volume striker. It is probably better to leave this fight alone from a fantasy perspective.

Aljamain Sterling -115 vs Renan Barao +112 

I love Barao here. Sterling isn’t an overwhelming striker in power or pace. Barao is tough to take down and if Sterling can’t get him on the mat he is going to struggle to deal with him on the feet. Sterling relies too heavily on kicking and countering. This fight will be similar to the Assuncao fight, but with Barao landing more impactful strikes. I’ve got the former champion as a Gold Play.

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I don’t know if Barao will finish Sterling, but he will score some decent points with volume and takedowns. I think fighting at 140 pounds is going to be very beneficial for the Brazilian. He is quite affordable for a fighter that I feel should be a favourite.

Renato Moicano -147 vs Brian Ortega +135 

Moicano could be Gold play depending on your approach. If you want to pair him up with 1 of Woodley or Manuwa and then Barao with the other that is a solid approach. If you are looking to bet a 3-leg parlay, drop Moicano to the Silver section and pair him up with Jones and Lamas. Ortega has been behind in all 3 of his UFC wins. He could easily have lost 1 or all of them. Moicano has the measured striking and skill grappling game to prevent Ortega from scoring another come from behind win. Moicano takes it.

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I’ve got Moicano in my lineup. He hasn’t shown that killer instinct at the UFC level, but he will pile up the points with his striking and potential takedowns. He isn’t my favourite pick, but he is affordable and sometimes you just have to roll with it.

Andre Fili -350 vs Calvin Kattar +336 

I am going to pass here. It’s too bad the original fight fell through, this bout could be fun, but it is not worth investing in.

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Pass here as well.

Kailin Curran +142 vs Alexandra Albu -152 

I like the dog here. It seems like more often than not when you are talking a 2+ year layoff, it is almost an auto fade. That is a long time to be out of action and Albu doesn’t have a lot of fight experience to draw upon to help her to deal with this. Curran has a questionable fight IQ, but I see the combo of her striking and pace being the difference here. She’ll keep Albu on the cage and then land more strikes when they separate. She hasn’t had a lot of success in the UFC, so I will cut her back to a Bronze play.

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Curran can finish and if Albu starts to fade with the combo of the layoff and her lack of long fight experience, look for Curran to close the show on the mat via sub. Add her.

Eric Shelton +133 vs Jarred Brooks -144 

People are pretty high on Brooks, but I like what I saw out Shelton in his debut. Brooks might be able to get this fight to the ground early, but Shelton is going to make him work, wear him out, and get the better of the striking exchanges on the feet. Brooks is debuting while Shelton is onto fight #2 with his TUF run in his back pocket as well that shows up. Still, we have 2 unproven commodities- Bronze Play.

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No play here, I don’t see a finish, but I don’t have a strong read either way.

Joshua Burkman +270 vs Drew Dober -306 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a no play. Dober is improving, but he is capable of losing this fight. Pass.

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I will pass here as well.

 

1. Cris Cyborg -1050 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Tyron Woodley -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Renato Moicano -147 

4. Jimi Manuwa -172 

5. Jon Jones -249 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Renan Barao +112 

7. Andre Fili -350 

8. Drew Dober -306 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Ricardo Lamas +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Donald Cerrone +139 

11. Eric Shelton +133 

12. Kailin Curran +142 

1. Renan Barao +112 

2. Ricardo Lamas +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Donald Cerrone +139 

4. Eric Shelton +133 

5. Kailin Curran +142 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Daniel Cormier/Jon Jones 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Tyron Woodley to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -120 

Woodley is coming off a pretty lackluster pair of fights. He had big moments and they helped keep the belt around his waist, but I expect that he will come out looking to make a statement here. Maia isn’t a great striker and once Woodle shucks off his takedowns and forces him to stand, there will be openings for the champ to land.

Cris Cyborg to Win in the 1st Round -165 

Only a couple of fighters have escaped the opening round in Cyborg’s recent fights. Evinger lacks the striking to threaten Cyborg, back her off, or even set up her wrestling. This will leave her in a bad spot against the bruising Brazilian. Cyborg gets it done quickly.

Robbie Lawler/Donald Cerrone Total Rounds Under 2.5 -110 

I expected the total to be set around 1.5 rounds, but to get an extra round at very solid price makes this a must play. Both men are killers and both have shown that they can finish. The mileage on these guys is starting to show up, I don’t think we need the judges here. Keep both men’s finishing skills in play here.

Jimi Manuwa to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -105 

I have seen this line as high as +110, so there are deals to be had. Manuwa has 17 career wins, 15 by knockout. That means 88% of his fights have ended via knockout and at this type of return you have to invest. Volkan doesn’t have the ground game to threaten Manuwa, Jimi gets him out of there in prime time.

Ricardo Lamas/Jason Knight 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Renan Barao to Win By Decision +175 

Sterling is a solid grappler and a defensively capable striker. That should keep him from getting finished by Barao, but he will still be hard pressed to win. I have noticed that Barao has started to take over as the favourite, he still has value straight up and this line only adds to it.

Renato Moicano to Win by Decision +135 

Moicano has gone the distance in back to back fights and will be facing an opponent that he will want to avoid making mistakes against. Ortega is great at capitalizing on his opponent’s aggression and miscues, so look for Moicano to fight a smart fight, but limit the risks. Play him on the cards.

Kailin Curran/Alexandra Albu Total Rounds Under 2.5 +150 

I have been cashing hard on unders and finishes in Curran fights, so why stop now. Curran has gone the distance just once in 5 UFC fights. She is aggressive and will look to push the pace early. That could lead to her getting finished or finishing Albu. Alexandra has also finished both of her pro opponents, so she knows how to put opponent’s away, but doesn’t have a lot of long fight experience. Decent value here.

Eric Shelton/Jarred Brooks

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Joshua Burkman/Drew Dober

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White