UFC 213 & TUF 25 Finale- “Contenders and Pretenders”

I wrote this...

You can’t always have your cake and eat it too. The main event of the Friday Night card was a fight to remember and will be in the running for FOTY. The original main event that was pegged to go down on Saturday night is a fight we will have to wait to remember. Regardless, we have a new interim-Middleweight champion ready to face the current champion when both sides are ready. Overall, I went 18-6 over the two shoes and returned a profit in the Bet Packs. Let’s take a look at my “Hateful 8” big moments from the weekend along with a quick take on the main event that wasn’t to be.

Tecia Torres’s First Finish!

After a career of grinding out decision while holding her spot near the top of the division, Torres finally picked up her first stoppage victory. By submitting a talented BJJ Black belt like Lima, Torres sizably raised her stalk and could be headed towards a title eliminator up next.

Jesse Taylor’s Redemption

It has been a long time in the making, but “JT Money” finally won his TUF tournament title. Undefeated in the house, Taylor rolled through Dhiego Lima in the finals- scoring an early second round submission win. Taylor could be putting his reputation as a boring grinder behind him as he looks to incorporate his strong wrestling attack with an improving submission game.

What a War!

In a clear Fight Of The Year candidate, Justin Gaethje survived a couple of early scares to eventually put away Michael Johnson. MJ had his moments early and was arguably a couple of big punches away from closing the show. Gaethje’s performance put him on the mat as a fighter to watch and talk if more high profile fights are already circulating. While his style might not be conducive to long career, he has yet to find an opponent that can overcome him. It is unfortunate that the Lightweight title is occupied elsewhere.

Down goes Browne

After another strong start that had “Hapa” moments from victory, the big man faded, got rocked, and ended up getting himself submitted. Browne has scored a win his controversial eye poke victory over Matt Mitrione. It might be time for Browne to walk away.

Showtime Returns

In his return to the division where he formerly held the title, Pettis put together one of his best performances in recent memory. Jim Miller is a tough opponent for the majority of the division, but a loss for “Showtime” would have confirmed that he was no longer a top level talent. While it is yet to be seen if he can win against the biggest names in the division again, he at least earned the right to try.

Third Time’s the Charm?

It would appear that the stylistic approach of former Champion Fabricio Werdum and form challenger Alistair Overeem is just not meant to produce exciting or definitive fights. I had Overeem winning the fight 2-1, but Fabricio clearly had the most dominant round that nearly ended the fight. It was a controversial decision, but certainly not a robbery. Both fighters had their moments and Overeem got his hand raised one more time. Will this victory warrant another shot at the title? Possibly, but it was far from a command performance.

Last Man Standing

It looked bleak early, as Robert Whittaker appeared to be reduced to a 1-legged man in the most important fight of his life. Despite the early setback, “Bobby” Knuckles” stayed the course and outlasted Romero over the final 3-rounds. The post-fight antics by the current champion were fantastic and should help to set the table for their eventual clash down the road. Despite his impressive run, Romero falls just a single win short of his showdown with Bisping. That fight could still go down in the future and Romero might only need a single win to put him back into a title shot.

Final Thoughts

While I picked Whittaker to win, the Romero/Bisping fight would have been an interesting one and still could be. Whittaker and Bisping will be a good fight and I am not sure who Bisping would have faired better against. Well, at least he doesn’t have to worry about facing Gegard Mousasi anytime soon.

Amanda Nunes pulling out of her title defense is certainly concerning going forward. She was cleared by the doctor, but still felt unable to compete. That could set a bad precedence in an organization where holding onto your title as long as you can, by any means, equals security. Chael Sonnen’s suggestion of a forfeit clause could be the answer here, but at the same time, we also want to see championships defended by champions in the ring- in their best condition.

We head to Scotland for our next card with a fantastic main event. Time to get to work.

eVENT PASSWORD copyTUF 25 Finale

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Michael Johnson $8400 
Fighter 2: Jesse Taylor $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Jordan Johnson $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Ed Herman $7700 
Fighter 5: Teruto Ishihara $9200 
Fighter 6: Drakkar Klose $7200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Jared Cannonier $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

*Two cards in two days = we are going to get right to the point!

Michael Johnson -155 vs Justin Gaethje +148 

The line on this fight has undertaken a massive swing with Johnson opening around +190. I still like Johnson here. He is heads and tails above anyone Gaethje has faced and as long as JG doesn’t land something big early, Johnson’s speed and combination striking will win this fight. Getting this type of value against a percieved puncher’s chance is good for me! Gold Play.

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Gaethje gets hit a lot which will allow Johnson to pile up the points and score a potential finish. A combo of the 2 could produce a nice return. At $8400 he is a solid deal. Sign him.

Dhiego Lima +170 vs Jesse Taylor -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Unless Lima cracks Taylor or catches a lucky sub, Taylor will dominate this fight. Lima can’t deal with pressure and his chin is weak. I had Taylor closer to -280 for this fight. I will take anything in this range. Gold Play.

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JT-Money is a little more expensive than Johnson, but he is still worth a fantasy play. Look for a large accumulation of takedowns, top position strikes, and a finish most likely by TKO to make Money cash out in fantasy points. Add him.

Drakkar Klose +231 vs Marc Diakiese -255 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are playing the dog here. I bet against Diakiese last time and it didn’t work out well, but I like Klose here. Diakiese had a lot of issues with the pressure and TDs of Sajewski until he gassed. I like the way Klose punches into the clinch and stays there. Look for more takedowns from him too. This is a Bronze play because we have seen so little of Klose at this level.

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We are going to have a main card heavy lineup with Klose joining the fantasy ranks too. He throws very hard so a stoppage isn’t out of the question and if he can score some early takedowns, they should come easier as the fight goes. A threat of a finish, solid volume potential and takedowns all equate to points. Plus he is very cheap! Lots of players will be on Diakiese after his last fight, making Klose even more potent with a win.

Jared Cannonier -251 vs Nick Roehrick +215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was really looking forward to Cannonier/Bosse as a fight and betting Cannonier hard. I assume this line will balloon a bit, but at this price, I will take Cannonier as a Bronze play. We don’t know a lot about Roehrick which adds an element of the unknown.

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If you need a sub option Cannonier is there to be had. He throws hard and will be a stiff test for a short-notice newcomer.

Brad Tavares +110 vs Elias Theodorou -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Theodorou in general, but his fighting style just seems too clunky and ineffective against a large part of the division. I felt that against Santos and I see that again here against Tavares. Elias simply doesn’t land enough volume to win a decision against an aggressive striker. Tavares needs to mind his chin, but he gets the job done here. Tavares’s chin holds him back to a Silver play.

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Tavares is a decision machine and Elias took a beating against Thiago Santos and stayed in the fight. I will pass here.

Jordan Johnson -227 vs Marcel Fortuna +210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Johnson has good wrestling, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him use his wrestling in reverse to shut down Fortuna’s early TDAs. This should lead to JJ grinding him out on the cage and landing the better combinations. Fortuna will tire and his window to win will close quickly. Gold play for the American.

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Johnson will pile up the points if this fight goes deep. He has a big cardio edge and his wrestling will show up when Fortuna tires. Add him to the team!

Angela Hill -293 vs Ashley Yoder +292 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am passing here. Hill has struggled at times with ground fighters and Yoder could offer just enough volume on the feet with TDS to score the upset. Hold your cash.

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No Play.

James Krause -330 vs Tom Gallicchio +270  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Krause, but he sometimes is too willing to fight on the mat. That is the only way Gallicchio wins this fight, so at this price I will stay. I might consider a counter prop bet on Gallicchio though.

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Krause is a solid striker and Gallicchio gets hit a lot and can be finished. Unfortunately, the price tag on Krause is just a little too hefty.

CB Dollaway -179 vs Ed Herman +169 

Dollaway is the more well-rounded and capable fighter, but his chin is just way to suspect. Additionally, his Fight IQ puts that questionable chin directly in the line of fire. Herman will scrap with him and I fully expect for him to find a home during one of the exchanges. Some might classify this as a puncher’s chance, but I see their styles leading to this type of an outcome. Herman is a Silver play.

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“Shortfuse” is cheap and with Dollaway’s chin, a finish is there to be had. I like him, sign Ed up.

Aspen Ladd -116 vs Jessica Eye +110 

This has to be it for Eye with a loss. That fact alone should have her desperate. I have seen a lot of people backing Ladd, but I am not nearly as high on her after watching her fights. I feel Eye should have a speed advantage and will find success against Ladd when she plods forward to engage. I don’t think Ladd is as big of a threat on the mat that some are making her out to be. I like the vet to win a crucial fight. Eye’s lack of recent success has me cutting her back to a Bronze play.

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I expect that if Eye win it will be on the scorecards. I will pass.

Gray Maynard +257 vs Teruto Ishihara -278 

Gray looked like garbage in his last fight. He didn’t look that much better 1 fighter earlier and both bouts were against dedicated grapplers with limit threat on the feet. Ishihara is far from perfect and might lose this fight if it is not over in the first 5-7 minutes. Either way, his speed and power will be enough to hand Gray his first knockout loss at 145 pounds. I like him in my Gold play to help support my other picks.

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Ishihara is my big ticket item. Maynard’s chin implodes if you look at it too hard and Teruto hits very hard and moves well when attacking. That is a bad combo for Gray. Add him for the finish inside the first half of the fight.

Juliana Lima +319 vs Tecia Torres -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Torres is coming in on short notice and is a heavy favourite. She should win this fight with TDD and volume striking, but if Lima can take her down early we could see an upset. I won’t touch Torres straight up, but a prop bet on a decision win might be in play in a Gold or Silver bet.

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Torres is a decision machine that costs over $9000. You do the math.

 

1. Jesse Taylor -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Teruto Ishihara -278 

3. Tecia Torres -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Jordan Johnson -227 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. James Krause -330 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Michael Johnson -155 

7. Jared Cannonier -251 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Brad Tavares +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Angela Hill -293 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Ed Herman +169 

11. Jessica Eye +110 

12. Drakkar Klose +231 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Brad Tavares +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Drakkar Klose +231 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ed Herman +169 

4. Jessica Eye +110 

5. Dhiego Lima/Jesse Taylor Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Tom Gallicchio to Win by Submission +345:  This is just an estimation of where I think this line will land. Either way, if you are going to play Gallicchio- the submission prop is the way to go.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

See Betting Scenario Section.

Prop Bets

Michael Johnson/Justin Gaethje Total Rounds Under 1.5 +145 

These guys come to throw heat and while I could see them withstanding a violent fight beyond the 1.5 round mark, the plus money and potential for violence makes this a must play. Johnson has shown he can finish and can be finished. Gaethje takes a lot of damage and dishes it out too. Play the Under.

Dhiego Lima/Jesse Taylor Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Taylor inside the distance of any fashion is not posted yet. I would take a long look at the knockout prop considering it will probably be in the +250 range or better. Lima has been knocked out in 4 straights fights and Taylor’s combo of pressure and top position strikes will create a lot of issues for him. Let’s not discredit the fact that Taylor has also been subbed a heck of a lot. Play the Under.

Brad Tavares to Win by Decision +179 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Elias is tough, as already mentioned Santos put a beating on him and busted him up something fierce. Yet he survived. Tavares has gone the distance in 10 of his 18 pro bouts and hasn’t scored a finished since UFC 125…against Phil Baroni! If Tavares takes this fight it will most likely be on the scorecards. Bet accordingly.

Jordan Johnson to Win by Decision +147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The decision prop is always a risk at 205 or higher as the fight can change with one punch. Johnson is a grinder and has gone to the 3rd round in 3 straight fights. That usually happens with a step up in competition. Fortuna has never been finished and will be enough of a threat off his back to avoid getting smashed. Fatigue could lead to a stoppage, but I like the plus money.

Angela Hill/Ashley Yoder 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

James Krause/Tom Gallicchio Total Rounds Under 2.5 +100  

I am shocked that this fight is currently sitting at 2.5 rounds. These two have a combined 40 fights on their records that didn’t go the distance versus 15 to go the distance. Gallicchio is always in pursuit of the submission and by doing so he walks forward and gets cracked- a lot. Krause can finish on the mat, but I would think a standing stoppage is probably more likely. Either way, with an extra round attached here, this is a must play.

Jessica Eye to Win by Decision +170 

Eye’s only UFC win came via stoppage. A freak stoppage, but still a stoppage. Jessica has won 7 times by decision compared to 4 stoppages- 2 came in her first 3 pro fights. I don’t expect to see her deviate from her traditional approach if she wins, it will be on the cards.

Gray Maynard/Teruto Ishihara 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Juliana Lima/Tecia Torres 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFC 213

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Valentina Shevchenko $8200 
Fighter 2: Robert Whittaker $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Travis Browne $8600 
Fighter 4: Jordan Mein $8100 
Fighter 5: Jim Miller $7300 
Fighter 6: Curtis Blaydes $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Alistair Overeem $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Thiago Santos $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Amanda Nunes +100 vs Valentina Shevchenko -107 

Loving this fight. I had VS in their first fight and she almost pulled out late. The mistake she made was not pushing Nunes a little earlier. She might learn from that here, but keep in mind that was a 3-round fight. This is a 5-round fight. I’m not advocating giving away 2 rounds, but I feel she can orchastrate a similar gameplan and win this fight. Nunes is a 1-round fighter, maybe 2 on a really good day. Valentina takes her out or pulls away in the 2nd half for a decision win Gold Play.

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At $8200, Shev is quite affordable and will have 5 rounds to grind this bad boy out. That should result in some decent volume points along with a couple of takedowns as Nunes tires. A finish is not out of the question either. Add her.

Yoel Romero +110 vs Robert Whittaker -112 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

People are jumping all over Romero as the dog, that should add some value to Whittaker. Romero’s cardio is the first concern, how does he hold up if this fight gets into rounds 3, 4, and 5? Additionally, his chin isn’t as solid as we think. Whittaker’s speed and volume are going to be key. Romero tends to sit back and wait. Then he counts on a big moment to score and take the fight over. If that moment passes him by he’ll be behind early and not have the gas tank to come back. Tough opponent, but a Silver play for “Bobby Knuckles”.

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Just like Shev, Whittaker is affordable, has 5-rounds to work, and is capable of scoring a finish. I think he is another solid investment, especially if everyone is jumping all Romero. A Whittaker win becomes doubly as impactful.

Daniel Omielanczuk +587 vs Curtis Blaydes -664 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a No Play as a straight bet, but I will look at a prop options and see what are available.

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With a big underdog on board, we have the cash to tackle Blaydes here. He is a takedown machine and DO can’t stay vertical to save his life. Once Blaydes is on top look for the finish to come with a barrage of GNP. Add him

Fabricio Werdum +113 vs Alistair Overeem -121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Fight #3 between these beauties and the series is tied at 1-1. I like Overeem here, but was a little down that he wasn’t the dog. Werdum had his rise up the ranks, but I think his style is a little too reckless for a talented striker and improve defensive fighter like Overeem. This could be the best fight of the 3 or a prolonged staring contest. I like Overeem to get it done, either via knockout or by scoring more points in a low volume affair. Silver Play.

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At $8400, Overeem is a solid sub pick. He has stopping power, but as I mentioned his defensive style could result in lower output and scoring numbers. I think Werdum’s aggression leads to Overeem landing something big, but I will stick him on the bench and call him up if needed.

Anthony Pettis -230 vs Jim Miller +211 

I have been fading Pettis a lot lately with success. Miller doesn’t have the skills of an Alvarez or a Barboza, but he has the grit needed to grind this fight out. If Pettis can stop him, his style isn’t great over longer fights. Miller needs to get in his face, back him up, and threaten with takedowns. This might be a close one, but I’ve got Miller in my Bronze section.

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Miller is the key to the lineup. We have several lower costing favs and one big hammer made affordable by New Jersey’s own. Jim can finish on the mat. There is no doubt about it. Given the chance to grab a sub and he will close the show. I will take the risk and the extra cash. Add him.

Travis Browne -205 vs Aleksei Oleinik +193 

Browne isn’t the fighter he used to be. The word is that Edmund it completely out of is camp and won’t corner him which is a good thing. While he has been losing, he has been doing it against fairly capable competition. Against Oleinik, he just needs to remain vertical. Easier said than done, but I like his chance. Browne survives the early action and his physical gifts are too much for the aging submission specialist. Gold Play.

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Browne is also in my Fantasy lineup. He has the ability to score the knockout and if AO fades after the opening round, look for Hapa to swarm for the kill. He is a little cheaper than expected which is a nice surprise.

Chad Laprise -529 vs Brian Camozzi +550 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here on Laprise. I have seen a couple of sites with outrageous odds for Camozzi. His size could be an issue for Chad and his debut could have been a little misleading.  A counter bet could be in order.

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Pass.

Thiago Santos -142 vs Gerald Meerschaert +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an interesting fight. I like it when I see a lot of people on the dog. Meerschaert is a very crafty ground fighter, but I believe he is outgunned here and will struggle to get in a position to use those skills. Many predictors are pointing to Thiago’s loss to Spicely, but Santos did injure his leg early in that fight and was unable to properly defend/move afterwards. I think he will give GM fits on the feet and defend the TDAs. Favourites in this range have been winning a lot this ear. I think it continues here. Silver Play.

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Santos is a sub who will probably see a lot of action in secondary lineups in place of Browne. I don’t need to go into the details, we know he is a killer. The big reason that Browne got the call over him is due to quality of opponent. 

Jordan Mein +130 vs Belal Muhammad -132 

Love Mein here. Everyone else seems to love Muhammad. Mein looked great in his last fight until he faded. The kid was out for 2 years, I will cut him some slack. Belal is a good striker, but he is very chinny. Mein is incredibly slick on the feet and everything he throws has power. I don’t see Belal being able to take much of what the Canadian dishes out. Mein gets it done in a hurry. Gold Play for the Underdog.

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Mein hits very hard + Belal’s questionable chin + $8100 price tag = sign him up. This is a must win for the Canadian as well. I still think he has something left in the tank.

Rob Font -303 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +284 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. Font is a big favourite and de Andrade does have power. Pass.

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Nope, Font hits hard but will cost you too much. I’ve already made my big investment.

Cody Stamann -259 vs Terrion Ware +250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing to see here. Two debuting fighters with too much unknown to consider a bet.

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Pass.

Trevin Giles -290 vs James Bochnovic +263 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Similar situation here to the previous fight. Interesting to not that of the people that have voted on this fight, most have picked the dog.

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Pass.

 

1. Curtis Blaydes -664 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Valentina Shevchenko -107 

3. Travis Browne -205 

4. Rob Font -303 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jordan Mein +130 

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6. Robert Whittaker -112 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Alistair Overeem -121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Thiago Santos -142 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Chad Laprise -529 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Jim Miller +211 

11. Cody Stamann -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Trevin Giles -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Jordan Mein +130 

2. Robert Whittaker -112 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Jim Miller +211 

4. Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110 

5. Valentina Shevchenko to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +600 

1. Brian Camozzi +550:  He is too big of a dog here not to take a shot. Simple value play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Amanda Nunes/Valentina Shevchenko 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110 

I am completely shocked that this line is currently sitting at plus money. Omielanczuk’s TDD is terrible and Blaydes is a monster once he gets on top. I can’t see Dan surviving 15-minutes on his back. Bet accordingly.

Fabricio Werdum/Alistair Overeem 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Travis Browne/Aleksei Oleinik 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Thiago Santos/Gerald Meerschaert Total Rounds Under 1.5 -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Between Santo’s lethal striking arsenal and Meerschaert’s skilled mat game I will be surprised if this fight hits the second half. The price isn’t fancy, but it will keep both fighters’ skills in play.

Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +360 

I have seen this bet as high as +400 on some sites. Mein hits so hard with everything he throws that a direct hit is going to put Belal down. Belal’s chin is much more crackable than this line suggests. Too many people are fading Jordan after his last fight. I’m not one of them.

Cody Stamann/Terrion Ware

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Trevin Giles/James Bochnovic

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White