UFC 211: Miocic vs Dos Santos- “Everything is Bigger in Texas”

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UFC 211 featured a pair of titles on the line against dangerous challengers, but in the end both Champions left Texas with their belts still wrapped firmly around their waste. Demian Maia appeared to secure his shot at the Welterweight title and Frankie Edgar turned back one of the top up and coming prospects in the division.  Let’s take a look at the fights to make for many of the big names following the conclusion of UFC 211.

Stipe Miocic vs Fabricio Werdum

I would like to see Cain Velasquez eventually challenge Stipe, but he needs to show he can stay healthy. Werdum fights Overeem next and needs a win to get his rematch. If he does emerge victorious, it should be as good as done. If Werdum fall short, I’m not ready to give Overeem another crack at the title. Maybe Derrick Lewis gets a shot with a win over Hunt.

Junior Dos Santos vs Travis Browne

JDS is officially on the decline. Getting a title shot gave him a boost, but I don’t expect to see him back in the picture anytime soon. That doesn’t mean he can have some good fights between now and the end. Browne is coming off a main event loss of his own and is also looking to rebound. Book it.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Rose Namajunas

Joanna is clearing out the upper echelon of the division, but Rose is still waiting for her opportunity. Namajunas needs a shot at the title now. I initially thought she needed another win, but I think it is time to let these two go at it.

Jessica Andrade vs Jessica Aguilar

Andrade is a killer, but she ran into a technically superior opponent in the Champion. She could still be the second best fighter in the division, but I don’t want to see her taking out potential challengers before they get their shot. Aguilar is going nowhere fast, but her name still has a little value. This fight helps to rebuild Andrade without hurting the division. I wouldn’t mind seeing Andrade go to 125 for a fresh run at the title or stick around if JJ makes the eventual jump.

Demian Maia vs Tyron Woodley

Dana needs to make good on his promise of a title shot for Maia. He is getting up there in age and doesn’t want to wind up like Jacare. Hopefully the UFC can get this fight setup for later in the Summer. GSP wanting a Welterweight title shot or a major injury on either side are the only scenarios that could prevent this from happening.

Frankie Edgar vs Max Holloway or cut to 135

Edgar is in a tough spot. He is clearly in the top 3 of the division, but he just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Aldo. With an 0-2 record against the Brazilian, Frankie wants Max Holloway to take Jose down and create another opportunity for “The Answer” to challenge for the title. If Aldo retains the belt, a trip to Bantamweight could be interesting for the former Lightweight champion,

David Branch vs Jacare Souza

Branch got the win in his debut, but he didn’t do himself any favours with his performance.  Jacare is coming off a loss, but he is still a top ranked fighter in the division. If Branch wants to make a run he will need to knock off one of the big names and a fight with Souza would give him that opportunity. Conversely, a win for Souza gets him right back on track.

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier

The fight, for how long it lasted, was great. There is no reason not to pair these two up again and get a definitive outcome. Their next encounter should be in a main event  which would add on a pair of rounds should they need them. Make it happen.

Jason Knight vs Renato Moicano

Stopping an opponent like Skelly is about as big a win as you can get outside of the Top 15. Knight needs a shot at a ranked opponent and Moicano works for me. Knight has a lot of momentum, keep it rolling.

James Vick vs Francisco Trinaldo

Vick continues to show improvement and needs another chance to make his mark against a ranked opponent. Trinaldo had a similar run recently come to an end, but he is still holding down a number. A win here gives Vick more traction in the upper level of the division.

Cortney Casey vs Cynthia Calvillo

Easily the biggest win of her career, Casey continues to show improvement. Calvillo has a lot of momentum, but she lacks a win over a recognizable name and Casey would provide that opportunity. If Casey beats Calvillo, she continues her roll to the Top 5 and beyond.

Final Thoughts

This was a very good card. Stipe Moicic continues to establish himself as one of the top Heavyweight champions of all time. I still expect that he needs to defeat Werdum in a rematch and beat Velasquez before we can start talking about him as the best Heavy of all time.

I’m glad to see that Maia will be getting his shot at the title, but I’m not sure how that fight looks if it doesn’t get done inside the first 10-minutes.

My numbers weren’t great, but looking across the prediction world, this appeared to be one of the more difficult cards to predict. We get a steadier stream of events in June as we gear up for a very busy summer run. No rest for the wicked.

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Jessica Andrade $7400 
Fighter 2: Demian Maia $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: James Vick $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Rashad Coulter $7900 
Fighter 5: Enrique Barzola $7200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Gadzhimurad Antigulov $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Stipe Miocic $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Yair Rodriguez $7600 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Stipe Miocic -122 vs Junior Dos Santos +116 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The first fight was fantastic and I was on Stipe then. JDS came into the last fight as a significant favourite againt a less than established opponent. Miocic opened this fight in the -200 range but has steadily increased in value since. My guess is that public money is flooding in on the challenger after watching the first fight. I felt it was a pretty close scrap and Stipe was potentially winning before he got stumbled in round 3. Miocic has improved, JDS has either plateued or taken a step back. Stipe is a Silver play.

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I’ve got Stipe in my sub list. In a rematch like this we could very well see a quick finish, but at the same time we have seen that JDS can take a lot of punishment. There are better options for you ‘A’ squad.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -175 vs Jessica Andrade +170 

The value on Andrade is on the rise, which is great for us. I felt JJ was in trouble early against Gadelha, but Claudia couldn’t sustain her offense. Andrade’s cardio is better than Claudia’s and Jessica is the more effective/impactful striker. JJ’s has made a camp upgrade which could out her on the next level, but my money will be on the challenger to put her on the mat and make it count with either a sub or GNP. Silver play for the title change.

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At $7400 you need to employ Andrade. She fights to finish and can accumulate a lot of points over a 5-round fight. She has surpassed the 100 point mark on 5 occasions and against a durable opponent, over 5-rounds, the points will pile up. Add her.

Demian Maia +118 vs Jorge Masvidal -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Maia is on a significant role and very few have found a way to shut down his grappling. The fact that he opened at -175 and has been bet down to the underdog has me licking my lips. I like Masvidal, but I struggle to see him getting passed the smothering attack of the BJJ Black belt. That being said, if Jorge can land the early knockout or withstand the first round surge and take over against a tired Maia- he can win. Those scenarios are not indicative of a favourite. Gold Play for the soon to be title challenger.

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Maia is a finisher and even if he can’t get the finish, the takedowns and positional advancements will score points. He has been a point producer in the past at as a slight underdog he is quite affordable. Put him in coach.

Frankie Edgar -117 vs Yair Rodriguez +120 

Is this the passing of the guard? Staying at the top of the heap, or at least close to the title can be difficult. Rodriguez is going to be tested, but his reach and striking diversity are going to give Edgar fits. My big concern here is that Yair is getting the rub from the fans in the Public Picks section at 55% and in my experience, a trending dog is not a winning dog. Edgar is a hell of a fighter, I’ve got Yair as a Bronze play.

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Rodriguez might be a good option as a backup play. He could finish Edgar and if he does that will be a huge swing in a lot of tournaments. I like him as a sub.

Krzysztof Jotko -149 vs David Branch +138 

This fight gets promoted to the main card, but it is still flying under the radar. Both guys are streaking and the winner will make some serious gains up the ranks. The biggest difference is that Branch has been doing it outside of the UFC against opponents that aren’t UFC caliber or are certainly ranked lower than the fighters that Jotko has been turning back. We have seen fighters have success elsewhere and come to the UFC and flounder. Off the top of my head- Will Brooks and Josh Burkman 2.0 come to mind. Yeah, yeah Eddie Alvarez. Jotko is a Gold play for me.

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I’m going to pass here, Jotko is more of a grinder and will probably take a decision in the 60-75 point range.

Eddie Alvarez +112 vs Dustin Poirier -110 

Speak of the devil. Post-title fight letdown alert for Eddie. It hasn’t been 100% full proof, but it’s pretty good. One day, when I have more time on my hands I will go over the hard numbers and provide some stats. Poirier is going to be ready to go here. He knows that if he gets a win over the former champ he rockets right up the ranks. Alvarez is looking at the long road back to the top and that can be difficult to deal with. Poirier hits hard and has speed, if Eddie comes out looking to trade- it could be a quick night. Either way, I can’t wait for this fight! Dustin is a fringe Silver play, maybe dropping to Bronze based on quality of opposition and the fact that he is the slight fav.

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I considered Poirier as an option here, but I like a couple other lesser known fighters in my lineup.

Chas Skelly -110 vs Jason Knight +108 

There are some really good fights on this card, but this one might take the cake for action and fncks given. I like that fact that Skelly has slowly risen in value since the open. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that people have forgotten how many times that Knight was taken down in his first 2 fights. Unless Skelly gasses hard before the midway mark, he is going to out-grind Knight from top position and wear him down. Love the line here. Gold Play!

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Knight is tough to finish. I’ll pass.

Marco Polo Reyes +340 vs James Vick -362 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Reyes has done well, but his style of fighting will eventually hit a ceiling that he get through. Vick is probably it. He could land a big shot and score the finish, but Vick beats him in most other scenarios. I like Vick as an addon play in the Gold section.

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Vick is my big play. The guy can strike and he can finish on the mat. Reyes is vulnerable to the takedown and if Vick can get him down, the finish should be there. Sign him up.

Jessica Aguilar +105 vs Cortney Casey -116 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Adding to the list of unexpected favourites, we have Cortney Casey. Casey is coming off a tough loss, Aguilar is coming off a similar defeat to the same opponent. The difference is the injury and massive layoff that Aguilar is dealing with. Casey is a big girl and should have the striking advantage. I haven’t been that impressed with Aguilar, especially when you consider her level of opposition. Casey has yet to win a fight outside of the opening round, but she has the skills to get the better of the striking and enough physicality to push JAG and wear her down. This would easily be the biggest win on Casey’s ledger, Bronze play.

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I gave some consideration here considering Casey’s track record with finishing all of her wins, but I will hold off.

Chase Sherman -110 vs Rashad Coulter +110 

Coulter is coming down in value and they could be even by fight time. I just don’t like how hittable Sherman is. He doesn’t move his head. That is a disaster at HW. A disaster. Coulter hits hard and is going to be the better striker based on his boxing background. That is enough for me to take a shot a dog here. Bronze play based on the lack of good fight footage.

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Sitting just below $7900, Coulter is the play to make here. Sherman got iced in a bad way last time out and Coulter has the track record that suggests he can do it too. Add him.

Gabriel Benitez -140 vs Enrique Barzola +132 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Loving the dog here. Benitez looked great against Sicilia and good versus Collard. He is now facing a more complete fighter in Barzola. Barzola’s wrestling should be enough to lead him to a victory here. He is dropping in value so get in on him while you can, strong Silver play.

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I like Barzola to use his takedowns and ground and pound to score. Even if he doesn’t get the finish, he will produce and not too many people will be on him. Additionally, he frees up some cash for another pick that is a little more pricey. Add the man.

JOACHIM CHRISTENSEN +360 vs GADZHIMURAD ANTIGULOV -399  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Christensen and if he gets through round 1, this could be his fight to take over. This is a no play for me.

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On the other hand, Antigulov is a finisher. A good one at that. If he gets this fight to the floor, he can wrap up the submission. I’ll take a shot here. Last, er first play on the card.

 

1. James Vick -362 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Krzysztof Jotko -149 

3. Chas Skelly -110 

4. Enrique Barzola +132 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Dustin Poirier -110 

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6. Demian Maia +118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Gadzhimurad Antigulov -399 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Stipe Miocic -122 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Jessica Andrade +170 

10. Cortney Casey -116 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Rashad Coulter +110 

12. Yair Rodriguez +120 

1. Enrique Barzola +132 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Demian Maia +118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Jessica Andrade +170 

4. Rashad Coulter +110 

5. Chas Skelly -110 

1. Joachim Christensen +360:  If he can keep it vertical he has a good chance to win this fight. If he can keep it vertical and drag it into round 2 and beyond, his chances climb significantly. Make a small play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Stipe Miocic/Junior Dos Santos

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jedrzejczyk/Andrade Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance +120 

I was a little surprised that this was at plus money and close to +130 on some sites. The O/U is currently at 3.5 rounds, but I want to have all 5 in play here. Both girls are killers. Absolute Killers! JJ’s finishing numbers are a little less than we like to give her credit for, but I expect that these two will go for it from the onset. Judges need not apply.

Demian Maia/Jorge Masvidal Total Rounds Under 1.5 +165 

Both guys can finish, Maia by sub and Masvidal by knockout. Both are eager to prove themselves ready for a shot at the title which will encourage early action. Maia’s pursuit of the early takedown will result in either a submission opportunity or him getting knocked out.

Krzysztof Jotko to Win by Decision +140 

Love this play and it will probably get some sizeable action in the upper echelon of my bets. Jotko has gone the distance 12 times in 19 wins, 5 times in UFC. Branch can finish, but he has only been stopped twice in his career and nothing since 2011 against Palhares. Jotko is the better grinder and the more active fighter. He pulls away as the fight progresses and takes a decision.

Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Chas Skelly to Win by Decision +181 

This fight will be all about frantic striking exchanges and top position control by Skelly. Knight will survive off his back, but he’ll fail to come up with enough offense to get the job done. Skelly has shown he can finish, but these guys have equatable skills sets that will take this fight the distance.

Chase Sherman/Rashad Coulter Total Rounds Under 1.5 -157 

Heavies going to heavy. These guys both pack power and both are coming in on short notice. I expect it will be Coulter as the hammer here, but this play keeps bot fighters’ stopping power in play.

Marco Polo Reyes/James Vick Total Rounds Under 1.5 +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Vick should have the edge everywhere this fight takes place, but Reyes has the type of power and willingness to scrap to make him dangerous. They will get after it early and the finish will follow, most likely via submission by Vick.

Gabriel Benitez/Enrique Barzola

See the Betting Scenario Section.

JOACHIM CHRISTENSEN/GADZHIMURAD ANTIGULOV 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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