UFC 208: Holm vs de Randamie- “Ring the Bells and Throw the Punches!”

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History is hard to make and that is why it is so significant when it is made. Holly Holm had a chance to become the first woman to capture UFC titles in two different weight classes. Unfortunately, she was denied her spot in the record books by a victorious, but a controversial performance by Germaine de Randamie. GDR is the first ever UFC Women’s Featherweight champion and will now prep for her future date with the baddest 145-pound woman on the planet.  Rounding out the main card, Anderson Silva returned to the win column, along with fellow Brazilians Glover Teixeira and Jacare Souza.

I went 10-0 on the night with sizeable returns across the board in my Bet Pack. Everything is posted below, along with my future bouts for the notable fighters on the card.

Germaine de Randamie vs Cris Cyborg

Unless there is something preventing the fight from happening, if GDR fights anyone other than Cyborg in her first title defense- it is shame. The fight was decent but certainly controversial. The post-bell strikes were tough luck, the ref should have done a better job. What hurt the significance of the fight more than the actual fight, was the fact that Germaine immediately announced that she required surgery that would put her on the shelf. Ducking Cyborg already? Either way, fighters recognize that the longer you hold onto the title, no matter how many times you actually defend it, the better off you are. GDR is a decent opponent for Cyborg in a striking battle, but I expect the Brazilian eventually takes her down and GNPs her way to the title.

Holly Holm vs Leslie Smith

Did Holm do enough? I feel the judges are starting to punish fighters that attempt to stall their way to a win with heavy clinch attack. There is nothing wrong with utilizing the clinch, but you need to remain active. Holly has now lost 3-fights in a row and didn’t look so hot in the last two. She seems to be out of options when her distance striking game isn’t working. If opponents weren’t picking up on Holly’s per-strike tells, they certainly will now. She needs to fix that. Smith is a willing striker who will engage Holm on the feet and would benefit from a change of scenery at 145 pounds.

Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort

Silva started his post-fight speech like he was prepping to walk away from the game, but that might be his way of showing how grateful he is to still be winning fights at this stage of his career. We saw flashes of the old Anderson, but the old Anderson would have capitalized on the diminished striking defense of his opponent and knocked him out. I don’t know if he can or should compete with the upper echelon of the division, but a fight with Belfort could certainly headline a Brazil Fight Night card. This fight makes sense on both sides.

Derek Brunson vs Tim Boetsch

Brunson didn’t do enough. Silva didn’t fight a great fight either, but we’ll get to that. Brunson needed to do more against Silva, but he was most likely hesitant to pull the trigger after the Whittaker debacle. Finding a happy medium between blind aggression and a composed strategic approach will take time and Silva wasn’t the guy to do it against. Boestch would serve as a good recovery fight for Brunson, with just enough danger to keep him honest.

Ronaldo Souza vs Winner of Bisping/Romero

Give Jacare a shot at the title. Either he takes on Bisping after a successful and surprising title defense against Romero or he gets to rematch Yoel with the title on the line. Both fights make sense, but in all reality, Souza’s next fight should be for the strap regardless of who is on top.

Glover Teixeira vs Jan Blachowicz*

With Jones on his way back, I assume Glover won’t be getting a title shot anytime soon- but he needs to remain active. Blachowicz is facing Patrick Cummins and if he wins that fight, Teixeira would be a perfect next opponent for the big Pole. Cummins already fell to the Brazilian, so if he emerged with the win, he can go elsewhere for his next fight.

Jared Cannonier vs Ed Herman

It was simply too much, too soon for Cannonier. He certainly deserves credit for taking the fight and the UFC gave him a chance to climb the rankings, but it just didn’t pan out. A sizeable step back is in order, with a chance to rebuild his momentum. Herman is a solid vet that will give Jared a good fight, but most likely be on the wrong end of the outcome.

Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chiesa

Despite the leg injury, Poirier put on a solid performance. He is still quite reckless which is fun to watch, but also dangerous. Chiesa is a pretty gritty fighter himself and will be more than willing to engage Dustin anywhere the fight goes.

Jim Miller vs Drew Dober

Miller took a beating but hung in there admirably. Dober is a considerable step down from the quality of opponent that Jim has been facing, but he needs a break from battling it out with the upper echelon of the division.

Belal Muhammad vs Ryan LaFlare

A short notice win as the underdog is a great way to rebound from the crushing defeat he took last time out. LaFlare picked up a win earlier in the night and both guys are looking to get to that next level.

Wilson Reis vs Demetrious Johnson

This fight was previously scheduled to take place and with the lack of challengers for DJ, why not book it again. Formiga has a win over Reis and is another legit option- I’m fine with either fight. Johnson wins both.

Islam Makhachev vs Evan Dunham

A solid performance from Makhachev over a gritty opponent like Lentz is nothing to sneeze at. Dunham is a much better version of Lentz, let’s see how Islam holds up.

Final Thoughts…

Dana White has made it perfectly clear that he wasn’t happy with the card. The judging was interesting, to say the least (in our favour), and the officiating of the main event was hot garbage. New York is starting to gain a reputation and it isn’t a good one. Nonetheless, I am quite happy with my performance in all areas and have put together arguably my best start to a calendar year that I have ever had; 35-11. Take a look at the Bet Pack posted below and then it is time to move onto Halifax next Sunday!

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Germaine de Randamie $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Anderson Silva $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Ian McCall $8100 
Fighter 4: Dustin Poirier $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Glover Teixeira $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Belal Muhammad $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Ronaldo Souza $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Holly Holm +118 vs Germaine de Randamie -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I see a lot of people backing Holm in this fight, I understand why- but I’m not one of them. She still gets a big bump from her win over Rousey with the added feature of saying she is going to be better at 145. I’m not buying it. She looked “figured out” against Shevchenko. Defensively, if Holm can’t keep her opponent on the outside, where she also does her best offense, she struggles. GDR is a nasty striker and that nastiness is magnified with there isn’t a threat of a takedown. Holm’s power is in her kicks, but she is going to have limited success landing enough to back GDR off. GDR hits harder and is more active- she also has the technique to get through Holm’s defense. Gold Play.

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I like GDR in my Fantasy lineup. I’m not a huge fan of the fantasy options this time around, but her price doesn’t break the bank and over 5-rounds she will either compile a decent amount of volume or score the knockout. Maybe both.

Anderson Silva +138 vs Derek Brunson -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Brunson’s bum rush approach to pro cage fighting was working, but the risks were ever present. Whittaker finally exposed them. Will he learn from that lesson? Is he capable of running over a dangerous counter striker like Silva? Or, will he opt for a more wrestling-centric attack? Silva is getting up there, but the holes that Brunson leaves has are very exploitable. If Anderson doesn’t finish him quick and doesn’t get finished, look for a sizeable slowdown from Brunson. Either way, Silva takes advantage of a below average chin and defensively vulnerable opponent. Silver play.

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There are a number of heavy favs on the card, so playing a slight Fantasy dog with good finishing potential against an opponent that can be finished is essential. Silva gets the win and the finish. Add him.

Ronaldo Souza -499 vs Tim Boetsch +431 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an NP. Souza wins this fight under almost all scenarios. That being said, Boetsch has the type of power and a history of pulling off upsets like this one. I will pass on the side bet.

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At $9500, Jacare is very expensive. I can’t work him into my lineup, but the stoppage points are there to be had and if you have a couple of big dogs you are eyeing you can probably make him work.

Glover Teixeira -199 vs Jared Cannonier +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Glover here, but I gave Cannonier a good look. This could be a case of too much, too soon. Cannonier had a great final round against Cutelaba, but he didn’t start to find success until Ion started to wear down. Glover gas tank is far better and he has the option to use a wrestling heavy attack or work his pocket punching offense on the inside. The biggest concern is that Glover could be a little gunshy after the Rumble KO. Either way, he is too much for Cannonier here. I’m looking at a Gold play here.

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Cannonier was knocked out by Jordan and Glover has big power. If he can’t get the stoppage, look for some production from a takedown-heavy game. A submission finish, arm triangle, is certainly not out of the question either. Add him.

Dustin Poirier -405 vs Jim Miller +373 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will pass on the side bet here. Miller is dangerous enough to trouble Poirier and the line simply has no value.

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Miller isn’t an easy out and Poirier is way too expensive to consider. Update- felt my lineup was better suited with Poirier in after reconsidering my other options.

Randy Brown -135 vs Belal Muhammad +123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I went back and forth on this fight. I think people favouring Brown are reading a little too much into the knockout of Camozzi and Muhammad getting KOed by Luque Brown scoring the stoppage win wouldn’t shock me, but I feel he is going to struggle to keep up over a 3-round decision. Muhammad moves well, carries a decent pace, and will mix in his ground attack. The 2-week notice prevents this fight from being a bigger play- Bronze.

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Muhammad isn’t known for his finishing skills, despite the Montano result. He is affordable which is 1 key reason I am backing him here. He can score points with volume and potentially a couple of takedowns. A late finish might not be out of the question. Add him to the roster.

Wilson Reis -555 vs Ulka Sasaki +530 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here on the side, I will look at a prop option.

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Reis will probably get some love as a fantasy pick and I think he can sub Ulka, but he is extremely costly. I will pass.

Nik Lentz +263 vs Islam Makhachev -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The line isn’t headed in the right direction for those of us on Makhachev, so I dropped him to a Silver play and might leave him off altogether. Lentz is a tough out, but I feel like Islam will outwork him and edge this fight out. I am considering a Counter bet on Lentz here.

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Mak is another expensive Fantasy favourite and there is only so much room for those type of plays- pass.

Ian McCall +118 vs Jarred Brooks -123 

McCall has been out of action for a prolonged period of time, that is certainly contributing to the current state of the line. A lot of people are laying money on Brooks here. He is a decent prospect, but a little green and undersized for the division. Look for McCall to be a moving target, avoid the rushes of Brooks and take the fight over as the debuting fighter on short notice experiences a bit of octagon shock. Layoff knocks him down to a Silver play.

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Similar to Muhammad, we are looking for a couple of cheap plays to pair with our big buys. Not the greatest strategy on this night, but the Fantasy options are limited. I think McCall picks up a decision and will produce between 65-90 points doing so. I like that outcome over some of the other longer shots. Add him to the team.

Ryan LaFlare -290 vs Roan Carneiro +284 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

LaFlare is simply better than Carneiro everywhere. His striking is better and his top game should shut down anything Roan has planned on the mat. LaFlare continues to show improvement in the striking department and grinds out a win. I think the better investment here is a prop.

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Pass. I expect a decision and he cost too much for that type of a result.

Rick Glenn -175 vs Phillipe Nover +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t like to put an opening fight in a Gold parlay, but that is the plan here. Nover’s cardio and lack of volume on the feet are his big drawbacks. Glenn should be able to exploit both on route to a wide decision win. I’ve got Glenn in my Gold Play.

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No play here. A finish could materialize, but your money is better spent elsewhere.

 

 

1. Ronaldo Souza -499 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Wilson Reis -555 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ryan LaFlare -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Islam Makhachev -280 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Glover Teixeira -199 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Germaine de Randamie -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Rick Glenn -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Dustin Poirier -405 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Ian McCall +118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Anderson Silva +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Belal Muhammad +123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Anderson Silva +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Ian McCall +118 

3. Belal Muhammad +123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Wilson Reis to Win by Submission +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Germaine de Randamie -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Nik Lentz +263:  Lentz is a grinder and if his opponent doesn’t come ready to embrace the grind, they will be in for a long night. Woth a small play, especially if the line continues to move.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Holly Holm/Germaine de Randamie Total Rounds Under 4.5 +117 

Between Holm’s kicking game and the close range power that GDR can uncork, there is a real chance that someone is going down here. I didn’t like the way Holm responded to getting cracked by Shevchenko and GDR is more of an aggressor. That also could open her up to the counter striking of Holm. Play the Under.

Anderson Silva/Derek Brunson Total Rounds Under 1.5 +115 

I am little surprised we are getting plus money here. Brunson fights like he is shot out of a cannon and that could/will lead to a finish either way. I like Anderson to counter strike him into oblivion, but the under and all the finish factors will be in play here early.

Ronaldo Souza to Win by Submission -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Boetsch’s TDD has been pretty decent of late, but he hasn’t faced anyone like Jacare during that span. Similar to the Leites fight, once Boetsch is put on his back against a top level BJJ player he will be in over his head. The knockout prop is tempting, but I expect to see Souza go to the his bread and butter ASAP to take Boetsch power out of the equation.

Dustin Poirier to Win by Decision +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Miller is a tough out, even for a guy like Poirier. I don’t expect Dustin is going to tangle with Miller on the mat and Cerrone was the only one that was able to knock Miller out and it took a massive head kick to do so. Miller survives the full 3-rounds but doesn’t get the win.

Randy Brown/Belal Muhammad 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Wilson Reis to Win by Submission +175 

Sasaki has been finished in both of his UFC defeats. He comes off as a bit of a front runner/ offense only fighter and that is a recipe for disaster in this fight. Reis is the superior ground fighter and Ulka will most likely still engage him there- he might not have a choice. Reis gets hit back and gets the tap. This will be one of my bigger plays of the night.

Islam Makhachev to Win by Decision +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lentz can be finished, but he is still a tough out. He will be good enough defensively to hold off Makhachev on the mat and the feet- but similar to Jim Miller, he won’t be leading the dance. With so many heavy favs, we have to dip into the Prop section to make some cash.

 

Ryan LaFlare/Roan Carneiro

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Rick Glenn/Phillipe Nover

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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