UFC 206 and UFN 102- “Maxed Out and Ready for a Title Fight!”

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With 24 fights in the span of 48-hours, the UFC kept fight fans in their seats all weekend long. Jose Aldo’s next opponent is set, a Welterweight title shot could be on the horizon for “Cowboy” and new contenders in the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight division continued to climb the ranks. We were also treated to a Fight of the Year candidate. Let’s take a look at some of the key fighters from Friday and Saturday night to see who they should fight next?

UFC Fight Night 102
Derek Lewis vs Stefan Struve

The performance was hardly the type that will have people clamoring to see Lewis back in action, but we shouldn’t miss the forest for the trees. He has been smashing opponents in short order and got there eventually against Abdurakhimov. Shamil’s defensive approach is partially responsible for how the fight played out. He wanted to avoid the conclusion that the fight eventually came to and fought accordingly. Struve is another fighter with potential that would get sizeable push from beating Lewis. This fight would be a battle of distance, either Struve keeps him on the outside or Lewis closes the gap and hammers away. The winner gets the push to the next level of competition.

Francis Ngannou vs Ruslan Magomedov

There are a lot of people calling for Ngannou and Lewis to square off next and I get that for sure. I opted to go a different direction for both men to see if we can produce a pair of new future contenders in a division is desperate need of fresh faces. Magomedov has been suspended, but he will eventually return to action. For argument’s sake, let’s say it is in time for this fight to happen without much delay.

Corey Anderson vs Shogun Rua

Anderson arguably won the first fight, but considering it took place in Brazil it is not hard to see why it went Rua’s way. Corey appeared to have a fire lit under his backside against O’Connell and picked up a big rebound win and he should look to harness the momentum to wipe the Shogun loss off his record. The Brazilian legend’s spot in the division is very strong at this point and the UFC should look to use his status to help propel a young fighter into the upper echelon. If Mauricio wins the fight then he clearly has a little more gas in the tank than initially perceived.

Gian Villante vs Ed Herman

Villante was clearly the better fighter and winning the fight, but nearly lost it late in the opening round. He has struggled to gain much momentum in the division, despite compile a decent number of victories. While Herman is coming off a loss and is just 1-1 at Light Heavyweight, he still a solid test for Villante and the type of opponent he needs to beat if he has any chance of cracking the top 10.

UFC 206
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo

This fight is already set for Max and he wouldn’t have it any other way. I gave the opening round to Pettis, but Max picked up the pace and put him away in impressive fashion. It will be interesting to see how he handles that next level of competition. He has the striking skills to hang with Jose and the pace and cardio to threaten him in the second half. I personally can’t wait for this fight.

Anthony Pettis vs Will Brooks

It was a pretty rough weekend for “Showtime”, with Max putting the stamp on him and potentially any chance that he will ever wear a UFC belt again. Missing weight for a huge fight like this could end his run at Featherweight or at the very least should knock him way down the rankings. At this point, a move back to Lightweight might be in his best interest. Brooks is another fighter coming off a big setback, makes sense to me.

Donald Cerrone vs Robbie Lawler

Cerrone could easily be in line for a shot at the title based on his merits, but “Wonderboy” has some unfinished business with the champ and Demian Maia is overdue for his own shot. I feel Demian’s next fight should be for the title, so that rules him out for a fight with Cerrone. There was a lot of excitement when Lawler/Cerrone was originally announced and this fight needs to happen. Robbie is coming off a loss, but a win over Cerrone gets him right back in line. If “Cowboy” gets his hand raised, he is next in line for a title fight.

Matt Brown vs Sean Spencer

There is no denying that Brown is a heck of a fighter. He enjoyed a career resurgence, but that run is clearly over. He needs to take a step back from facing top level competition and getting his head smashed in. Spencer isn’t a major knockout threat and would be a welcome step back for Matt.

Cub Swanson vs winner of Bermudez/Korean Zombie

That was a hell of a fight! Was it enough to get Cub a shot at the title? Possibly, but considering how badly he got outclassed by Holloway- I’m not ready to give him the spot just yet, even against Aldo. Bermudez and Jung are schedule to fight next and the winner of that would make for an excellent next fight with Swanson. Winner of that fight takes a big step towards title contention after Holloway/Aldo is settled. Time to move on from McGregor.

DooHo Choi vs Jeremy Stephens

Losing a great fight is still a loss. Choi’s stock goes up, but not in the same way had he won the fight. Stephens is a solid veteran fighter with big power of his own and defensive issues. I can’t imagine how this pairing wouldn’t degenerate into another slugfest ending in a knockout. Pretty please!

Kelvin Gastelum vs Krzysztof Jotko

I didn’t get a chance to hear Gastelum’s post-fight interview, so I don’t know if he called anyone out. I’m assuming Dana is going to stick to his word and keep Kelvin at 185, which is fine with me. A fight with another fighter on the rise in Jotko makes sense to me. Gastelum isn’t ready to face the elite of the division just yet, but building his name at 185 with a win over Jotko would go a long way. If the Polish fighter gets his hand raised, that is easily the biggest win of his career.

Tim Kennedy vs Uriah Hall

Kennedy may be done in the UFC. Based on his connection to the new Fighter’s association, this loss might be enough to get him cut. If not, he may opt to walk away from the sport. He is 37-years old. If he wants to stay active, Hall is a good stylistic fight for him to get him back on track.

Misha Cirkunov vs Ovince Saint Preux

A huge win for the big Latvian Canadian put his name on the Light Heavyweight radar. Prior to the fight, many pointed to his lack of solid UFC competition. That shouldn’t be an issue after putting the stamp on Krylov in such definitive fashion. Krylov is a pretty tough out in his own right and has proven to be a lot to handle for most of his opposition. A fight with fellow fighter on the rise, Corey Anderson, might materialize, but why wipe out prospects with fights against each other. OSP is a nice step up, also beat Krylov, and would further escalate Misha’s position in the division with a win.

Final Thoughts

I continue to drop split decisions, which prevents my good nights be being great and my so-so performances from being good. Hopefully that trend changes for the better and soon. Despite going 6-6, I hit some pretty solid high notes. The Gastelum upset was great and the finish props on Cerrone and OAM paid huge. I also was on the Holloway/Pettis not to go the distance. My Draftkings lineup scored over 500 points and placed in the contests that I entered it in. Not surprisingly I find I struggle on weekends with more than one card when I only have a single week to prep. I finished the weekend 14-10 and with only 2 events left in 2016 my chances of hitting 300 wins on the year are almost gone. I would need to average 11 wins per event and while not impossible, it will be tough. Both Bet Packs for UFN 102 and UFC 206 are posted below, time to take a little break (24-hours) and then prep for the ladies throwing down on FOX.

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Max Holloway $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Kelvin Gastelum $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: John Makdessi $7500 
Fighter 5: Misha Cirkunov $8100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Donald Cerrone $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Do0Ho Choi $8900 
Fighter 2: Jordan Mein $9000 
Fighter 3: Mitch Gagnon $8400 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Max Holloway -185 vs Anthony Pettis +210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Pettis missed weight, so we have to assume he had a hard cut and drained himself tremendously to get down to the limit because he knew what was at stake. That doesn’t bode well for a fighter that already has issues winning decisions and having long term success in a fight where he can’t score a finish. Max will push him early, use pressure to shutdown the kicking game, and simply outwork him. I have Max in my Gold plays across the board, but keep an eye on how the first round ends. If Pettis starts to look a little on th tired side, consider a Live Bet on Holloway by TKO.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Max is expensive, but still affordable for his current situation. I expect him to hit 100-120 significant strikes and potentially pick up a stoppage. That is a must carry for your starting lineup. Sign him up.

 

Donald Cerrone -250 vs Matt Brown +252 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play on the side here. This should be a great scrap, but the line is a little too high for my liking. I will look at a prop play instead.

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I have Cerrone in my DK lineup. Brown has a glass body and Cowboy will target it with knees and round/push kicks all fight. Something will land and lead to a stoppage. He could be rotated out with each of my 2 subs for variety if you want to go that direction.

Cub Swanson +196 vs Dooho Choi -210 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Choi is taking a step up against a talented veteran for his contest, which raises some betting red flags. He has been finishing opponents with relative ease. What happens when that finish doesn’t come early or at all? How does he respond? I will pass on a side bet here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Choi is a sub. He could easily top 100-115 points with an early knockout, but he could struggle to deal with not being able to stop his opponent in the biggest fight of his life. Sub him in for Cowboy if you play a secondary lineup.

Tim Kennedy -129 vs Kelvin Gastelum +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Kelvin at 185 looked good against Marquart, but this is another animal. That being said, Kennedy’s time could be done in the UFC for a number of reasons. Age, lack of focus on fighting, opposing views on fighter pay/treatment to name a few. He has also be quite inactive. Basically, this fight comes down to Kennedy scoring takedowns. I don’t think he puts enough on the board to win against the quick Gastelum. Kelvin puts it on him for the upset. Silver play either part of a parlay or single bet depending on the bundle.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Kelvin in my lineup. His volume should be decent, but more importantly, he is cheap. At $7900, he opens doors for the big ticket players I want on my team. Sign him up.

Jordan Mein -150 vs Emil Meek +138 

Mein is coming back from a prolonged layoff, but I still like him. He is a slick boxer with good power and quite honestly the break probably did him good. He is still young, 27, but has a lot of mileage. I expect him to return with a charged battery. Meek is getting the call on the basis of KOing Palhares. It wasn’t a good fight, it was over in an instance. I like more complete performances as an indication of where a fighter is. Mein is simply too technical on the feet and Meek has been stopped twice already by knockout. The layoff could knock him down to a Silver play, but the money is there to be made either way.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Mein can finish and Meek can be finished. I feel he could easily take the spot of Cerrone or even Holloway and that will most likely be my plan in a secondary lineup. He is a sub for now though.

Nikita Krylov +109 vs Misha Cirkunov -117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Love this fight, should be great while it lasts. Cirkunov is the more technically sound and defensively responsible fighter. If Krylov can’t overcome him early with his pace, he will eventually wind up in a bad spot. Krylov has been taken down in several spot and been forced to fend off close sub attempts. Misha isn’t one to toy with on the mat. Gold Play in both bundles.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Misha is very cheap for a fighter with a strong finish rate. Krylov is simply too loose defensively to trust against a physically strong technically sound fighter like Cirkunov.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier -161 vs Drew Dober +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I waivered here a bit. If Dober can stay vertical he can win this fight, but that is the story for most of the guys that OAM fights. Dober lacks the power to back OAM off and keep him from closing the gap. Once OAM gets his hands on you, he is tough to shrug off. Dober will struggle with the constant grappling threat and OAM will show more striking improvements. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I’ve got OAM on my team. We are looking for cheap, lesser known finishers. OAM fits the bill at just $8200 and a finishing rate of almost 100%. I expect he will rotate to Dober’s back on the cage to set up the finish.

Valerie Letourneau -170 vs Viviane Pereira +164 

Pereira getting some love here, but I am very rarely sold on undefeated female fighters coming out of Brazil. Her level of competition hasn’t been bad, but its not great. The size/ length is the real issue here. Letourneau is a big 115er former 135er and Pereira is very short for the division. I can’t image VP gets on the inside consistently enough to take a decision. Leg kicks and stiff jabs are the key to the Canadian’s success. The line has moved a bit, raising the value of “Trouble”, I like her in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing here.

Mitch Gagnon -147 vs Matthew Lopez +138 

Gagnon has been on the shelf for a prolonged period of time, but that isn’t an unfamiliar scenario. He beat Kimura after a month on the shelf. Gagnon is a physically imposing fighter that exhausts his opponents with his strength and aggression. His 2 UFC losses have come against Barao and Caraway- nothing to sneeze at. Lopez gassed in his last fight and wasn’t all that impressive. Gagnon has proven he can beat sturdy wrestlers in the past. Look for him to put Lopez on the defensive and finish the job with a tight squeeze. The layoff drops him to the Bronze section.

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I’ve got Gagnon on my bench. He can finish, but he is not quite cheap enough to replace my low-end plays and there is enough uncertainty that I can’t take him over Max or Cowboy. Still a valid play.

John Makdessi +164 vs Lando Vannata -167 

I took Vannata initially and even posted the pick for few a minutes. I felt like I was overvaluing his performance against Ferguson. He had zero expectations going into that fight, no pressure, and fought accordingly. He capitalized on Ferguson’s constant offensive flow that leaves him open to getting hit. Makdessi won’t like that. He is far more defensive in his approach and will limit the chances Vannata has to land strikes. This could be a close fight, but I like Makdessi to build some momentum off of his last bout and edge out Lando at home on the cards. A Bronze play for Makdessi, either a parlay or a single bet depending on the bundle.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Makdessi is cheap, $7500, which makes him an ideal play for my favourite heavy lineup. He has finishing skills and could stop Lando, but as the 6th fighter in my lineup I am just looking for a win. Volume and a Decision should score between 65 and 85 points.

Zach Makovsky -157 vs Dustin Ortiz +150

I feel Makovsky is simply better than Ortiz in all areas. He is a better wrestler, better scrambler, greater submission threat, and better all around striker. Ortiz ha had issues with superior ground fighters like Formiga and Reis- “Fun Size” will repeat that. Good bang for your buck here. Gold Play!

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Nothing here.

Jason Saggo +175 vs Rustam Khabilov -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Khabilov not making weight isn’t that encouraging, but I feel he is the better striker and the grappling is either favouring him or a wash. As much as I would like to see Saggo win, he is out-gunned here. This is probably coming out as a No Play on a straight bet, but I will take a look at a prop option here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing here.

 

1. Zach Makovsky -157 

2. Max Holloway -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Donald Cerrone -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Jordan Mein -150 

5. Misha Cirkunov -117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

====================

6. Dooho Choi -210 

7. Valerie Letourneau -170 

8. Olivier Aubin-Mercier -161 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Rustam Khabilov -185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Kelvin Gastelum +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Mitch Gagnon -147 

12. John Makdessi +164 

1. Misha Cirkunov -117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Kelvin Gastelum +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. John Makdessi +164 

4. Donald Cerrone by TKO/KO/DQ +340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Zach Makovsky -157 

1. N/A

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3.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Max Holloway/Anthony Pettis Doesn’t Go the Distance +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If Pettis wins it will have to be via stoppage as he won’t be able to watch Max’s output over 5-round. Conversely, the struggle to make weight and the letdown of failing, will compromise Pettis’s physical and mental state and make it hard for him to go a full 5 with a fighter like Holloway. Either Pettis stops him early or Max gets it done late (or early if Pettis is that beat down).

Donald Cerrone by TKO/KO/DQ +340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Brown has a good chin, but he got cracked by Brown. A career of being hard to finish will eventually catch up to you and it might have caught up to the “Immortal” one. While Cerrone is more than capable of cracking Brown on the chin, I am making this played based on his body. Brown’s body/liver is vulnerable and has seen him crumple to the ground on multiple occasions. Cerrone is a smart fighter with multiple weapons to exploit this. My bigger concern is that Cerrone goes for a sub after dropping him.

Dooho Choi to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110 

For Choi, 12 of his 15 wins have come by knockout, including all 3 of his UFC wins. Swanson has only been knocked out once, by Aldo, but he is going to stand with Choi. Swanson holds his hands low and if Choi hits him he can end it with one punch. Big step up, but the plus money makes it worth the play.

Jordan Mein by TKO/KO/DQ +175 

I’m not sold on Meek here. He has a pair of knockout defeats on his record against lower level competition. Conversely, Mein has 16 career KO or TKOs on his record and is pretty talented striker. The break will rejuvenate the young Canadian and fighting in front of the home crowd will help as well. Mein is too slick, eventually puts Meek down.

Nikita Krylov/Misha Cirkunov 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Check the Bet Pack Section.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier to Win by Submission +390 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With 6 of 7 wins by sub, that stat alone almost mandates a bet on OAM by sub at this type of return. All but 1 of his wins have been by RNC, which is the type of sub he can put himself in position to pick up against a fighter that will give up his back to get vertical. Dober has only been subbed once, but I feel OAM’s constant TD pressure combined with the lack of power that Dober offers will keep the Canadian in range for TDs and submission attempts all fight. Too much of a return to pass up.

Mitch Gagnon/Matthew Lopez Total Rounds Under 2.5 +125 

Of their combined 20 pro wins, 18 have come inside the distance and 3 of their 4 defeats have also come before the final bell. Gagnon has finished a trio of opponents in the opening round in the UFC and has a very aggressive style that will produce finishes. If he struggles with the return he could be on the wrong end of the stoppage against a fighter that has shown he can finish as well.

Jason Saggo/Rustam Khabilov 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Check the Bet Pack Section.

Zach Makovsky/Dustin Ortiz 

Check the Bet Pack Section.

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Derrick Lewis $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Francis Ngannou $9700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Justine Kish $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Trevor Smith $7500 
Fighter 5: Brian Camozzi $8000 
Fighter 6: Keith Berrish $7300 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Marc Diakiese $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4:  
 

 

Derrick Lewis -186 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are a lot of fresh faces on this card, so we will need to stick with some of the more known commodities to make some cash here. Quite frankly anything under -200 for Lewis in this fight is a huge bargain. I expected him to be closer to -250, so even in that range he is still a very solid play. I will be hammer on the props here as well, but Lewis will be part of my Gold bundle across the board.

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Lewis has been a killer and if he gets on top its over. Johnson smashed Shamil from top position, Lewis can too. Add him.

Anthony Hamilton +431 vs Francis Ngannou -499 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ngannou is a massive favourite and for good reason. The line is unplayable when it comes to a straight bet on Francis and based on what Hamilton offers, he isn’t worth a look either. I will take a closer look at the prop options here.

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Hamilton’s chin is a major issue and Nganno just hits too hard. He will be a popular pick, but I can’t pass up the first round finish that I expect to be produced in this fight.

Corey Anderson -379 vs Sean O’Connell +336 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

O’Connell comes to fight and if he can drag Anderson into a brawl, he could outwork him or possibly hurt and finish him. I don’t see it as I expect Anderson to go right to the clinch and takedowns if things start getting heated. That being said, no bet on Anderson straight up, but a prop is certainly worth a look.

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Nothing.

Gian Villante -176 vs Saparbek Safarov +161 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have not been impressed with what I have seen out of Safarov. I am not saying he can’t win this, but he if Gian fights smart he should take this fight. Villante needs to remain technical, work behind his jab and better the Russian with his low kicks. The short notice for Saparbek won’t help him either. I like the number on Villante, he gets the call in my top play for my Big Reward Parlay, might slip to a Silver play for my Big Bank Roll bundle.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nope.

Ashley Yoder +167 vs Justine Kish -203 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yoder getting a quick turn around against Kish who is making her second UFC appearance. I don’t think Kish showed her true capabilities in her debut, so I am looking for a better performance here. Yoder is going to struggle to drag her down and if she pulls guard that is a major mistake. Kish hits hard both standing and on the floor. There has been some talk of some injuries and/or a tough cap for Kish, so I have her in a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I’ve got Kish in my lineup here. I expect her to win this fight and potentiall pick up a finish. Yoder will give up position looking for a sub, which will give Kish the ability to land strikes. Justine is violent and will put together a better performance than her debut. With 2 heavy hitters at the top of the lineup, we need to find some diamonds in the rough. This is one of them.

Brian Camozzi +165 vs Randy Brown -169 

Brown’s fight IQ is a major question mark for me. He got out-wrestled by Montano in his last fight, despite having a superior striking repertoire. He kept closing the distance and while it worked out for him, it could have easily cost him a decision. Camozzi is the more active striker and is a submission threat. This could be a close fight, but unless Brown stops him I think Camozzi mirrors his brother and grinds this fight out. Either single bet in the Silver Section or a Bronze bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Camozzi has never seen the cards in victory with 7 finishes. I expect Brown to try and grapple with him, leading to a potential sub ending the fight for the junior Camozzi brother. Add him.

Gerald Meerschaert -208 vs Joe Gigliotti +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line caught me off guard so much I had to double check it. I did not expect Meerschaert to be this big a favourite and I would not have been surprised to see Gigliotti as a slight fav. This line is so far off where I had it, there is no way I can play Meerschaert and a counter bet on Gigliotti is almost a necessity.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nope.

Andrew Sanchez -184 vs Trevor Smith +156 

A lot of people are lauding Sanchez for his wrestling, but this is a big step up from anything he has faced yet in his career. Smith is a grinding grappler and can really break down a fighter with his top position pressure. I wasn’t that impressed with how Sanchez fared against Rountree even though he won. I know it was at LHW, but Smith formerly competed at 205 and is a pretty big guy. If “Hot Sauce” can survive the early attack, he’s a bit of a slow starter, I think he outworks Sanchez in the clinch and on the mat. Bronze bet in my Big Bank Roll plays, potentially sneaking up to a Silver option in my Big Reward plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Smith is very cheap at $7500. That price helps us to make up the difference from the big expenditures already made. He might not get the finish, but he will put up points with his takedowns and guard passing ability. Add him.

Shane Burgos -174 vs Tiago Trator +165  

Burgos getting a big nod here for his debut against a fighter that has looked decent in the UFC. Trator certainly has some holes, but he also has better experience both in quality and quantity. Burgos has looked good and trains out of a decent camp, but he is taking a sizeable step up in competition. He is also doing it on short notice. I think Trator offers a better workrate and more tools to grind out a close fight. Silver play for Tiago.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass.

Frankie Perez +232 vs Marc Diakiese -288 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Perez is back after unretiring and he facing a pretty dangerous fighter in Diakiese. This fight comes down to whether or not Frankie can take him down. Diakiese probably lost the opening round of his debut on his back and against a fighter on full camp, that type of mistake could lead to defeat. The threat of a fight changing takedown keeps me from betting this fight at this price.  A prop bet is certainly in the cards though.

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Diakiese is a killer, but he is costly. He needs to stay vertical to be effective.  I have him as a sub.

Keith Berish +232 vs Ryan Janes -248 

I backed Berish here, but this could easily end up as a No Play on the betting cards. Both guys have been out of action for a long time and they have a combined 1 fight in the UFC that lasted less than a round. Recent footage is hard to come by and I wasn’t that impressed with what I saw from Janes, so the line seems a little off to me. The disparity in where I thought the line would be along with all of the EPD factors at play might create enough interest to include him in a Bronze or Wildcard play in my Big Reward Bundle, but probably nothing in my Big Bankroll plans.

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Berish is in my lineup because he is financially available when all the dust has settled. Janes got rocked a couple of times in last fight and his striking D isn’t all that good.

JJ Aldrich +172 vs Juliana Lima -208 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lima’s 2 UFC defeats came against the current champ and the fighter she took the belt from. She has looked decent in the rest of her fights. Aldrich looked like a fish out of water on TUF when Suarez got her hands on her. Her TDD looked pretty poor and if she can’t stay off her back, Lima is going to grind her out. That is what I expect to happen here and I have Lima in my Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nope.

 

1. Francis Ngannou -499 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Juliana Lima -208 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Derrick Lewis -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Corey Anderson -379 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Gian Villante -176 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Marc Diakiese -288 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Justine Kish -203 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Trevor Smith +156 

9. Tiago Trator +165 

10. Brian Camozzi +165 

11. Gerald Meerschaert -208 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Keith Berish +232 

 

1. Tiago Trator +165 

2. Trevor Smith +156 

3. Brian Camozzi +165 

4. Keith Berish +232 

5. Corey Anderson to Win by Decision +145 

1. Joe Gigliotti +195:  I was a little surprised with this line, I feel Gigliotti has a much better chance to snag the W than the line would suggest. Vaule play.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

 

Derrick Lewis to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lewis is coming off the first decision win of his UFC career. He did it against a fighter with a granite chin and who was able to take Derrick off his feet for large portions of the fight. I struggle to see Lewis winning a 5-round fight without piling up enough to damage to score the finish. If Lewis wins, unless Abdurakhimov taps to strikes, it will be via KO or TKO.

Anthony Hamilton/Francis Ngannou Total Rounds Under 1.5 -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

At -300, Ngannou by knockout isn’t worth your play, but the Under 1.5 is. The big Frenchman is coming off a finish, but prior to those 2 fights he had a pair of bouts go over the 1.5 mark. I expect to see Hamilton try to rush Ngannou and put him on the mat early. That should open him up to eating counter strikes or at the least pull him into close range where FN can go off and get the finish.

Corey Anderson to Win by Decision +145 

The issue here is going to be the chin of OC and if he can hold up over 3-rounds. He has been stopped twice in the UFC. O’Connell is aggressive, which similar to the Hamilton/Ngannou fight, is going to force a reaction out his opponent. The reaction from Anderson will most likely be to either clinch up or shoot for a takedown. Either scenario limits the chance for a finish and a series of TDs/top control will eat up a lot of time. Anderson has gone the distance in each of his last 4 UFC wins. Book it.

Gian Villante/Saparbek Safarov Total Rounds Over 1.5 +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Safarov has a long line of opening round stoppages, but his last fight represented the most accomplished opponent of his career and he went a full 2-rounds before the corner stopped the fight. A step up in competition usually results in an increase in cage time, even for the most battle harden finisher. Villante has had just 1 fight end inside the opening round over his last 9-fights. Of those 8 fights, 6 have gone over the 1.5 round mark. He could very well put the stamp on Saparbek or get finished himself, but the numbers suggest this bout goes into the second half.

Ashley Yoder/Justine Kish 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Brian Camozzi/Randy Brown Total Rounds Under 2.5 +105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

At plus money and 2.5 rounds, we need to take a shot at this. All 7 of Camozzi’s wins have come by finish, 6 in round 1. For Brown, he has gone the distance just a single time in his career, with all of those fights hitting the under. Both guys can finish on the feet and on the mat as well, solid value play here.

Marc Diakiese to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

Diakiese has 5 wins by knockout, including his debut. He is a dynamic striker with power and accuracy. Perez is coming off a long break and if he can’t get the fight down with consistency, he is going to struggle to hang with the Brit on the feet.

Keith Berish/Ryan Janes 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

JJ Aldrich/Juliana Lima 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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