UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor- ”Historically Historic: A Double Gold Irishman”
While the action wasn’t always breathtaking, the historic first event to take place in New York City will certainly be looked back upon fondly. Across the board, there are a myriad of storylines. We have our first ever active dual-division champion. A new contender for his Lightweight title. A much needed Welterweight title rematch hanging in the air. A Middleweight monster clamoring for gold and many more. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s action.Notes from the Prelims
- The historical night of action opened with former title challenger Liz Carmouche grinding out a decision win over Katlyn Chookagian. Chookagian rallied late, but couldn’t pull it out.
- The benefits of cutting down a division continues to be mixed, with Jim Miller taking a wide decision over former Welterweight Thiago Alves. Alves failed to make weight and looked slow and sluggish. He had some success on the feet, but Miller took him down with regularity to seal the win.
- Moving to the televised prelims, Vicente Luque picked up the first stoppage of the night with a quick knockout of Belal Muhammad. Luque has put together an impressive run since his debut defeat. He is 1-5-1 in fights that go to the 3rd round, but that has not been an issue during his current streak.
- Not to be out done, Tim Boetsch continued his resurgence with a violent stoppage of Top 15 ranked Rafael Natal Boetsch bloodied the face of Natal early and had him on the retreat after every exchange. With Natal under pressure, he struggled to mount much offense and whenever he did, he left himself open to counters. Boetsch should see a return to the outer edge of the Top 15 with this victory.
- A strong start for Michael Johnson saw him rock Khabib Nurmagomedov during an early exchange. Johnson was utilizing a high-paced, stick and move attack- but it eventually gave way under an avalanche of takedowns and vicious ground and pound. Nurmagomedov staked his claim to a title shot in emphatic fashion. Nurmagomedov and Ferguson are easily the next two fighters in line and I would much rather seems them each get a shot at title before facing off in a title eliminator.
- In typical Frankie Edgar fashion, Edgar led the dance for the majority of the fight, but not without a moment of concern. Jeremy Stephens landed a head kick that sent the former Lightweight champ tumbling to the ground. Edgar went into recovery mode and even rallied to take back control of the round in the final minutes. With another non-title win, Edgar remains one of the best fighters in the UFC unable to win a title. With limit prospects for big fights at 145, could Frankie consider a move to 135 for a shot at the title?
In a passing of the guard, the former TUF competitor Pennington defeated her coach and former divisional champion Miesha Tate in a dominant decision win. On the strength of a crisp left jab, “Rocky” routinely bludgeoned Tate and forced to rely heavily on her ground game. While the former champ was able to find some success on the floor, it simply wasn’t enough. Pennington continues her roll that has seen her win four consecutive fights and a win of this caliber should move her into the top 5.
Following the fight, Miesha announced her retirement from the sport, walking away as a former UFC and Strikeforce champion. It is a disappointing end, to a fantastic career, but considering she made the decision based on the outcome of the fight- we might see her again.Yoel Romer def. Chris Weidman by TKO- Round 3
The post-title fight letdown struck again, as Chris Weidman got off to a strong start, but ended the night a bloody mess. The former champion fought a calculated opening round, looking to do damage, force Romero to work, but not expose himself to the dangers of is foe’s offense. As round 2 played out, it appeared that the American was the one starting to slow down. Romero found success with his wrestling that put Weidman in some unfamiliar spots. Just 24-seconds into the final round, Romero landed an ungodly flying knee the busted Weidman’s head open and forced the end of the fight.
Romero appears set to fight for the title against Michael Bisping, if he is delayed by injury or a possible USADA related issue. Bisping and Romero took part in an interesting post-fight exchange that should help to build towards their eventual title clash.Joanna Jedrzejcyk def Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision
In the first of three title fights, Jedrzejcyk retained her title in fairly competitive, but still wide decision win. The victory wasn’t without difficulty for the champion, who had to survive a mid-fight onslaught from the Kowalkiewicz. The challenger took the best the champ had to offer, and both girls left the cage with noticeable battle damage.
Up next for the champion, Joanna could be staring across the cage from a streaking and incredibly dangerous Jessica Andrade. Andrade is had quick work of a couple of noteworthy opponents since coming to the division. With JJ coming off a 5-round war, she could be ripe for an upset against the less battle-battered Brazilian.Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson Fight to a Majority Draw
In a fight that we are almost certainly going to see a second time, Tyron Woodley left the cage with his Welterweight title still around his waist. Despite retaining his title, Woodley appeared disappointed when the initial fight announcement was overturned. After the scores were read as a majority draw, Woodley was mistakenly read as the winner. More confusion ensued and eventually the fight was declared a draw. Ultimately, Thompson still loses- leaving the cage without the title.
Woodley’s points were scored with an opening round takedown and then near finish of the fight in round 4- first by knockdown and then by submission. Woodley clearly did a lot of damage in that round, but ended the frame on his back with Thompson landing some decent strikes. To me this should have fended off the potential of a 10-8 round, resulting in Thompson winning the fight on 2 of the judges score cards. The fight was there to be won for Thompson who routinely backed Tyron onto the cage, but was unable to unload with the type of damage needed to put the champ away.
While most fans and media members will clamor for an immediate rematch, top contender Demian Maia will be looking for his opportunity to fight for the Gold. I expect that Woodley will be more interested to face Maia then a rematch with Thompson. Tyron’s title retention against “Wonderboy” came on the strength of a couple of big moments not guaranteed to happen again.Conor McGregor def. Eddie Alvarez by TKO- Round 2
He said he was going to do and he did exactly what he said. Conor McGregor is the first simultaneous 2-division champion in the history of the UFC. McGregor dropped Alvarez on multiple occasions in round 1 and seemed relatively unfazed by what the former champion offered in return. Again in round 2, the Irishman seemed to hurt Alvarez with everything he threw. In the post-fight, Eddie stated that he failed to fight to his game plan, which must have involved a more wrestling-centric attack. Eddie attempted a couple of half-hearted takedowns, but was easily shaken off. Despite showing his impressive durability, eventually Alvarez succumbed to the punishment of his foe.
After calling for his second belt, the dual champion’s cries were answered. The expectation is that McGregor will drop the Featherweight belt to continue his run at Lightweight. There has also been talk of a major announcement surrounding the possibility of Conor taking a break from competition. If that were to be the case, both titles should be left vacant.
If McGregor opts to remain active, there are a plethora of opponent options. At Lightweight, Khabib Nurmagomedov staked his claim to a shot at the crown earlier in the night and Tony Ferguson is not too far behind him. If Conor is allowed to retain the 145-pound strap a rematch with Jose Aldo could be a huge money maker for all involved. Donald Cerrone is an intriguing option as well. There is also the possibility that Conor looks to avoid all challengers, especially a stylistic nightmare like Khabib, as he has still yet to fend a title bout that he has won at any point in his career.Final Thoughts
It was a night of underdogs, with 6 of the 10 winners coming in as the underdog. While Edgar avoided a career catastrophe, both Weidman and Tate succumbed to the effects of the post-title fight letdown. Tate suggested pre-fight that she needed a break after UFC 205 and while she announced her retirement, it seemed to be a product of the moment. If Rousey fails to reclaim the title, a possible grudge match between Miesha and Ronda could provide a sizeable financial return.
Thompson and Woodley is the fight to make in the aftermath, but the toll taken in this fight could force them to wait until early summer 2017.
What else is there to be said about McGregor? He backs it up, but there are mountains still left unclimbed.
From a prediction standpoint the night started well, but finishing the night 1-2-1 over the last 4 fights after correctly snagging the Pennington prediction was rough. This was a difficult card to predict and my record certainly won’t reflect my successes, but compared to other predictors who picked Tate, Natal, and Chookagian across the board- I can roll with it. The Bet Pack is posted below and features a pair of parlays that were in line to cash heading into the historic main event. This was clearly a single leg bettor’s night.
As if the action wasn’t already heated- we get a pair of cards next Saturday. Time to get to work.
Selection 1: Eddie Alvarez +145
Selection 2: Tim Boetsch +138
Selection 3: Liz Carmouche +152
Price: +1369 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 68.47 units
Selection 1: Raquel Pennington +164
Selection 2: Thiago Alves -147
Selection 3: Eddie Alvarez +145
Price: +987 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 39.47 units
Selection 1: Tim Boetsch +138
Selection 2: Thiago Alves -147
Selection 3: Belal Muhammad -105
Price: +766 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 38.83 units
Selection 1: Tyron Woodley/Stephen Thompson Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110
Selection 2: Chris Weidman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +350
Selection 3: Belal Muhammad to Win by Decision +174
Price: +2489 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 124.47 units
Selection 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by Decision -110
Selection 2: Frankie Edgar to Win by Decision -122
Selection 3: Eddie Alvarez +145
Selection 4: Stephen Thompson -185
Price: +1211 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 60.56 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup =================================================== Fighter 1: Eddie Alvarez $7600 Fighter 2: Stephen Thompson $8800 Fighter 3: Joanna Jedrzejczyk $9300 Fighter 4: Chris Weidman $8500 Fighter 5: Raquel Pennington $7100 Fighter 6: Tim Boetsch $8100 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Subs =================================================== Fighter 1: Belal Muhammad $8300 Fighter 2: Thiago Alves $8400 Fighter 3: Liz Carmouche $8000 Fighter 4: Fighter 5:
Eddie Alvarez +145 v Conor McGregor -150
I tweeted that UFC 205 is superior to UFC 200 both from a betting and competative stand point. I really like the fights we are looking at even with Evans/ Kennedy off the card.
Alvarez is not getting a fair shake from most predictors. McGregor has looked pretty average (at best) fighting against larger men- aka Nate Diaz. Eddie is a more well-rounded fighter compared to Nate, which will be the key to his success. Conor’s window of opportunity is the opening 2 rounds- if he can stay vertical. McGregor’s defensive wrestling and BJJ hasn’t looked great and Alvarez has won fights on the strength of his wrestling. If he can put Conor down with consistency, it will drain his cardio and make his striking a non-factor. The threat of the takedown could also take away or limit the kicking attack of McG. There is still the concern that McGregor KOs Eddie, who can be hit and can be hurt- but that to me sounds like a puncher’s chance. Over a 5 round fight, Eddie will offer the greater output and with a couple of takedowns that should give him the edge- if it goes 25. Eddie makes the cut in one of my Silver plays, probably my 4th favourite play of the night.
Over 5-rounds, Alvarez has the ability to put up some sizeable volume and decent wrestling numbers. As he showed against RDA, he has stopping power on the feet and an underrated submission game. At $7600, he can stop fights and will most likely be way under-played by the vast majority of players. Sign him up.
Tyron Woodley +175 vs Stephen Thompson -185
We gained a little bit of value on Thompson over the last couple of days, which was a nice surprise. I expected the opposite. Woodley has about a round to win this fight, maybe a round and a half. After that, if it gets that far- he will be too tired and have slowed too much to catch Thompson. If Rory couldn’t use technique to get on the inside and Hendricks couldn’t rush his way in, Woodley is going to struggle. Tyron has to be deceptive and then launch himself forward without getting countered. Thompson likes to counter and holds his hands low and with Woodley all it takes is one- so there is a chance. Woodley tends to put his own back on the cage and if he limits his movement that way, Thompson will unload like he did agaisnt Johnny. Look for Thompson to keep Woodley out of range, avoid his attempts to land his power shots, and either land his own fight ending strike or take a wide decision. Thompson is a Gold play for me. If you can get decent value on Woodley to win in Round 1, that might be your best option for him.
We are going with a triple threat of title fights to maximize our total in cage time. Over 5-rounds Thompson is going to pile up strikes, especially as Woodley wears down. The other option is that Thompson lands a knockout blow against a perplexed Woodley and finishes him inside the opening 3. We have a couple of big dogs, so we can afford a big name, big price tag item. Add him.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -398 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +342
This is a No Play for me on the side bet. I put some consideration into KK as a counter bet because with every title win, complacency tends to seep into a Champion. Camp in and camp out, they prep to face the best the division has to offer and combined with the other responsibilities of being a champ, it can wear on a fighter. The challengers are hungry and ready to go, usually having faced lesser competition than the champ and getting to focus more on camps along the way and less on press conferences and appearances. See Rocky III. I will look at a prop, but nothing doing here.
I do like JJ on the Fantasy side of things. WMAA draws far less interest than other fights. Additionally, at $9300- she is very expensive which will push people away to cheaper and more known finishers like Cerrone and Weidman. Over 5 rounds, JJ could conceivably land 180-220 significant strikes against a very hittable opponent with a minimal threat of wrestling. KK tends to be quite hittable and a bit of a slow starter, so if JJ can pile up the damage early she could potentially pick up the finish. Play her.
Chris Weidman -170 vs Yoel Romero +165
Alright, so we are going against the Post-Title Fight Letdown scenario going against Weidman. More specifically, we are favouring the first fight after a fighter’s first career loss scenario which favours Weidman. Additionally, Romero is coming off of a massive layoff which favours us as well. Romero is dangerous when he is allowed to dictate the pace of his fights. Neither Jacare or Machida pushed him and Romero took advantage. Weidman is a pressure based fighter and can work in the clinch. I expect to see him force Romero to work in round 1 and Yoel will slow down as a result. Once he does, Weidman will be able to take him down and either finish him or earn a wide decision. With scenarios involved, Weidman slips back to a Silver play.
Weidman was on my radar for my lineup as I feel he should be able to finish Romero. Yoel was exhausted in round 3 against Jacare and spent most of it on his back. Jacare really didn’t press him for rounds 1 and 2, like Weidman will. As a result, the slowdown will come quicker and the finish shortly after with the wrestler struggling to fight off his back. Weidman is a middle of the road buy at $8500, he isn’t overwhelmingly expensive, but there are a few lesser know and cheaper options that get the call first. Weidman is a sub.
**Update Weidman replaces Cerrone in my DK lineup.
Kelvin Gastelum +140 vs Donald Cerrone -152– Cancelled
Cerrone has been nothing short of impressive at Welterweight, but at what point does he hit his ceiling? Gastelum is quick, hits hard, and can wrestle. Is that recipe for success? I don’t think so. Gastelum is going to struggle to get in on Cerrone without getting tagged. He has issues with rangier fighters and while his performance against Hendricks was impressive- it had a lot to do with Johnny’s distinct dropoff. Don’t sleep on Cowboy’s wrestling either, as Gastelum has been taken down multiple times in the past. Cerrone keeps it going and makes the cut in my Gold play.
Cerrone has been icing guys at 170; 3 wins and 3 finishes. Gastelum can be hit and with Cerrone’s kicking arsenal and height advantage, he could certainly catch Kelvin upstairs. Cerrone is another fighter we can spend some extra cash on with the money we saved elsewhere. Sign him up.
Miesha Tate -170 vs Raquel Pennington +164
We are going for a big upset here! With Tate’s history of high profile fights and championship pedigree, I expected the line to be much heavier in her favour. I still like what we are getting with Rocky. Tate is in a bad spot. She won the title, finally. She promptly got obliterated in the main event of UFC 200 and lost everything as quickly as she got it. She is in a title fight letdown scenario. It is further magnified by the return of a certain Ronda Rousey. Her arch rival is returning to fight for the title, which certainly has to be sitting in the back of her mind. Additionally, she has apparently broken up with Caraway. I’ve heard conflicting reports, but without him in her corner- that can be a bit of a distraction as well. The weight-cut also seems to be a bit of an issue. That is a lot going on for Tate. Pennington is a tough out. She has solid striking, decent pop, and is difficult to muscle around in the clinch. If Tate can take her down with consistency, she wins all day- but I am not sold on her wrestling. Tate will get in trouble in this fight standing too long with Pennington and drop a close decision. Pennington is part of my trio of Silver plays.
I’ve got Pennington on my team. She is very cheap at $7100- so I can afford some of my other higher priced options. She has eclipsed the 75-strike mark on 3 occasions in her career. Her right hand is a weapon that Tate has struggled with, so I expect to see it get through routinely. I don’t expect a finish, but Pennington could surprise us against an opponent that could be a little worn out. Keep in mind, Tate has stated she wants a break after UFC 205. She could already be on holidays in her head against a hungry fighter looking to make her mark. Add her.
Frankie Edgar -325 vs Jeremy Stephens +289
Frankie has all the tools to dominate Stephens start to finish. Stephens does have that big weapon, his power, that could flatten Edgar if he connects. There is not denying that Frankie can be hurt and if Stephens can touch you, he can hurt you. I don’t see it happening here, but again Frankie (like others on the card) is coming off of a title fight loss. That could affect his focus, but Edgar has been here before and knows how to rebound. I like Edgar, but the price isn’t worth the risk. Maybe a prop bet.
No play here, Frankie is a little costly and while he could finish Stephens- I will look elsewhere.
Khabib Nurmagomedov -250 vs Michael Johnson +246
I’ve got Nurmagomedov, but this fight is better left untouched. I have been waiting for Nurmy’s risky striking tendencies to cost him. They haven’t but Johnson has the tools to make it happen if he can land that big punch with Khabib’s head up and chin exposed. No Play.
Nothing here either. Takedowns and top position strikes could be significant and a finish isn’t out of the question either, but I will pass at $9000.
Vicente Luque +110 vs Belal Muhammad -105
I flip flopped on this fight. I was originally on Luque, but then I looked a little closer at his record. He is 1-5-1 in fights that go to the 3rd round. That isn’t good, especially against a durable fighter that seems to get stronger as the fight goes. Luque doesn’t have the wrestling to overcome the TDD of Belal and he could be taken down himself. If he can’t get the finish on the feet, the volume of Muhammad will far out pace him. Belal was hurt several times by Jouban, but he is tough to finish. I’ve got him rounding out my Gold play.
Muhammad might be worth a look as a potential alternate. He can work a volume striking attack and has decent wrestling with 5 TDs in 2 fights. The lack of a consistent finishing game kept him out of my top 6.
Jim Miller +143 vs Thiago Alves -147
Alves is back in action after another long layoff. The issues of making weight at 170 are far behind him. Jon Fitch was who he fought when he last struggled on the scale, so that is quite a while ago. If the cut goes well, Alves should be the better fighter. He will benefit tremendously from not facing larger men, both striking and having to deal with them in close. Miller has talked about dealing with Lyme disease and how it affected his performance. Even if that is the case, I still see him getting busted up by a superior striker who will force him to stand and bang. Alves is a Silver play here simply because of the layoff and this being his first time at 155. I was close to pulling the trigger on a Gold play, but opted to go with a trio of fighters dealing with less x-factors.
Thiago could get the finish here, but Miller is a tough out. At $8400, he is worth some consideration but not in my top 6.
Rafael Natal -147 vs Tim Boetsch +138
I love this play. Boetsch is a flawed fighter, but he hits like a truck. Natal’s chin isn’t great and he is very hittable. Tim’s physicality and ability to land power strikes at range is going to take its toll on the Brazilian. Natal’s recent success has been the result of his takedown game, but I struggle to see him putting Tim on his back. Prior to taking out Samman, he was landing solid strikes on Herman and had Leites in trouble on a couple of occasions. I know Natal is fighting in front of his adopted home in New York, but I think Tim get its done. My confidence in this play grows knowing that DK has this fight at even. Silver Play.
Boetsch rounds out my DK lineup, or starts it off on fight night. Timmy has power, Natal has 4 career losses by knockout, and at $8100 Tim is very playable. Boetsch is never out of a fight, as he has shown, and Natal is known to slow down a bit in more grueling affairs. Hit that plus sign.
Liz Carmouche +152 vs Katlyn Chookagian -167
I am looking for a dog here to start. Carmouche has been out of action for a long time, which doesn’t help her pre-fight standing. Chookagian is coming off a nice upset win in her debut and is a trendy pick. If you look at the second round of that fight, when Katlyn got taken down, she stayed down. That has to be concerning. She fought a great distance game, but in previous fights, her foes had success backing her to the cage to cut down that movement. Katlyn is a former 125er and Liz is very strong. I expect to see her in the clinch and on top a lot in this fight, making the sharp striking and movement of Chookagian a non-factor. Silver play.
Carmouche could be an option here. She can do damage with her top position strikes and if she spends as much time on top as I expect, a finish or a sizeable output could materialize. I’ve got her as a sub.
1. Stephen Thompson -185
2. Frankie Edgar -325
3. Khabib Nurmagomedov -250
4. Joanna Jedrzejczyk -398
5. Chris Weidman -170
6. Belal Muhammad -105
7. Thiago Alves -147
8. Eddie Alvarez +145
9. Tim Boetsch +138
10. Liz Carmouche +152
11. Raquel Pennington +164
1. Eddie Alvarez +145
2. Liz Carmouche +152
3. Tim Boetsch +138
4. Raquel Pennington +164
5. Tyron Woodley/Stephen Thompson Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +342: She is a bit of a slow starter and that could get her into trouble- but she is the best striker that JJ has faced to date. Worth a small counter bet.
2. Michael Johnson +246: Nurmagomedov is a great wrestler, but during those early moments spent standing he could find himself in some trouble if he jumps in the deep end with no focus on defense.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Customer Information.
Tyron Woodley/Stephen Thompson Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110
I considered playing Thompson by knockout, but I want to keep Woodley’s power in play here. If Woodley can’t smash through the defensive front of Thompson early, look for him to start backing up to the cage where Thompson will let his kicking attack loose and do some serious damage. Both men can finish, but Woodley is the only man who has ever been finished before. Thompson gets his hand raised inside the first half of the fight.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk/Karolina Kowalkiewicz
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Chris Weidman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +350
Of Weidman’s last 5 wins, 4 have come by TKO. Machida was the only one to avoid the knockout and that was largely because he stayed vertical. Romero can be taken down and Weidman has the skills to do so. Romero won’t fair well off of his back, as most wrestlers don’t and if he is tired he won’t be able to get off of his back. Look for Weidman to hammer down blows until the ref pulls him off.
Kelvin Gastelum/Donald Cerrone Total Rounds Under 2.5 +140– Cancelled
Sometimes you just have to roll with the numbers. Cerrone has finished all 3 of his WW opponents- at plus money why not take the under. Gastelum has a pretty decent body kick as well and Cowboy can be hurt to the midsection. I expect to see this as a fairly active fight wherever it takes place. Play the Under.
Miesha Tate/Raquel Pennington Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170
Both girls can finish, primarily by submission. I’m starting to question the durability of Tate. She was hurt by McMann and obliterated by Nunes. She has taken some decent beatings in the past and that could be taking its toll. Pennington is scrappy and has far less mileage on her. We could see a finish either way- play the under.
Frankie Edgar/Jeremy Stephens
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Khabib Nurmagomedov/Michael Johnson Total Rounds Under 2.5 +125
Nurmagomedov’s style trends towards decisions, but he has shown that he can do enough damage from top position to get the stoppage. He also has some decent pop on the feet and Johnson has been rocked before. For MJ, he has stopping power and as I mentioned in my breakdown- Nurmy tends to leave his chin up when under attack and jump into his offensive attacks in manner that could leave him open to counters. I will take a shot with the Under here, but it isn’t at the top of my list of must play props.
Belal Muhammad to Win by Decision +174
Luque has never been finished by strikes and Muhammad has zero submission wins on his record. As previously mentioned, Luque is 1-5-1 in fights that go into the 3rd round and more specifically 1-3-1 on the scorecards. Muhammad scored a stoppage by accumulation in his last fight in the final minute of the fight. Over 11 career bouts, he has 7 decisions on his record and 6 have gone his way. I like him here on the cards against short-notice opponent with a bad history in long fights.
Rafael Natal/Tim Boetsch
See the Betting Scenario Section.Liz Carmouche/Katlyn Chookagian
See the Betting Scenario Section.