UFC 203: Miocic vs Overeem- ‘Stipe Smash!’
The Heavyweights headlined UFC 203 and the man at the top of the heap is still there. Stipe Miocic retained his title in impressive fashion, but not without some tribulation. The former champion also started his road back to contention with an odd but successful victory. I finished the night 7-3 with a difficult split decision loss for Eye limiting the night. The Bet Pack should have cashed, but the referee’s decision to allow Travis Browne to call a timeout for an injury and then continue fighting killed the Under 2.5 that was left on the Bronze Parlay. It was an odd night from start to finish, but let’s take a look at my future fights to make after UFC 203.Stipe Miocic vs Cain Velasquez
Stipe secured that all important title defense to further legitimize his position at the top. Holding the strap as a Heavyweight is not easy and Velasquez is a prime example of that. Cain looked impressive in his win over Browne and deserves the shot at the title. If he can stay healthy he is the Alpha Heavyweight, but if Miocic can beat him he becomes the undisputed big dog at 265.Alistair Overeem vs Mark Hunt
Overeem came very close to holding that strap. Post-fight interview aside, Alistair rebuilt himself from near Octagon flame-out to title challenger. Another former Pride veteran in Mark Hunt could make for an instant classic. Both have recent losses to the current champion and aren’t close to getting back in the cage with Stipe. That being said, with the lack of depth in the division and how frequently the title changes hands- a couple of wins could return either man to title contention.Fabricio Werdum vs Junior Dos Santos
It wasn’t a great performance, but it was a win. Fabricio looked sloppy at times, but most of it was covered up by his opponent’s performance. Considering how badly Velasquez smashed Browne, he leaps ahead of the former Champion for the next shot at the title. Instead, Werdum gets a chance to redeem himself against a former champion and man that brutally knocked him out back in the day. JDS is looking for his chance to get back in the mix and this fight sets up the winner for a future shot at the gold.Travis Browne vs Ben Rothwell
Browne filled in for “Big” Ben and did a horrible job of it. He looked to be a shell of his former self, putting on a worse performance than he did the first time around. Browne’s days are effectively over as a title contender and if he doesn’t turn it around soon, he could be fighting elsewhere in the not too distant future. Rothwell was trending in the opposite direction of “Hapa” prior to the JDS loss and will no doubt be raring to get back in the cage.Mickey Gall vs Sage Northcutt
With the CM Punk saga now behind him, Gall is moving onto bigger fish. He called out Northcutt and Sage’s camp have replied positively. This is a solid follow-up fight for a guy still very early in his pro career. If he wins, its huge and if he suffers a setback it is far from devastating.CM Punk vs Mike Jackson
Jackson was the fighter that Gall beat in his UFC debut and is also 0-1. Punk didn’t get to show much and neither did Jackson. I feel Punk should get a second opportunity, but he doesn’t have room for another no show performance.Jimmie Rivera vs Bryan Caraway
Rivera just beat the #2 ranked fighter in the division. Does that mean he is now #2? I don’t think so, but he will take a massive leap. The Bantamweight division is full of surging contenders all looking for their crack at the champion. Caraway might appear to be a step back from Faber as far as notoriety is concerned, but he is a streaking fighter that similar to Rivera is in need of a couple more high caliber wins to earn himself a shot at the title.Urijah Faber vs Raphael Assuncao
This was the first non-title fight loss that Faber has ever suffered at Bantamweight. The loss to Rivera marked a clear passing of the guard, but that doesn’t mean he still doesn’t have a little gas in the tank. Assuncao is another veteran fighter still hovering around the top of the division, who has recently taken a step back with a crucial defeat. They fought back in 2010 on a WEC card, which Faber won by RNC. If Faber wins again it could set up a fight with former stable mate TJ Dillashaw and if Assuncao is victorious he jumps right back into the title picture.Jessica Andrade vs Carla Esparza
Andrade has looked like a beast at 115-pounds and is closing fast on a shot at the title. While she could probably get her opportunity on the strength of the Calderwood fight, I expect she will need at least one more win. Esparza is the former champion and adding her name to the ledger would solidify Andrade as the next in line for a shot at the gold.Joanne Calderwood vs Tecia Torres
Calderwood got completely outclassed and finished just one fight removed from her best UFC performance. That’s rough. Jo Jo and Tecia are coming off defeats that cost them their spot in the rankings. They are both still viable contenders in the division, but they need to put some wins together to re-establish their ownership of a top 10 spot.Bethe Correia vs Sara McMann
I wasn’t impressed with Bethe, the fight was lost by Eye more than it was won by the Brazilian. Both her and McMann got starched in record time by the former champion and no one is clamoring to see them fight for the title anytime soon. It’s the type of fight that advances one of these fighters careers without hurting the future of the division.Jessica Eye vs Lauren Murphy
Eye has the most career losses in the history of the UFC’s Women’s Bantamweight division. That is an unfortunate distinction. I felt she did enough over the opening two rounds to earn the decision, but she gave the final frame away which was a mistake. Eye could get her walking papers and maybe a run in Invicta would be an appropriate career choice. If not, Murphy is a solid action fighter to pair her with.Brad Tavares vs Rafael Natal
Tavares returned to form with a decent win over an underwhelming opponent. He had a brief stint in the top 15 and if he intends to get back there he’ll need to start piling up some decent victories over increased opposition. A case could be made that he should face another unranked opponent to help further build his record, but I think Natal is a more appropriate fight.Final Thoughts
The main event will certainly improve the way we look at this card. The CM Punk experiment went how most people expected it to, which is unfortunate for Punk and to a lesser extent the UFC. I’m sure they had a plan to market him and run Punk out for the next Chicago show. They still can do that, it just won’t have the same impact. Werdum won, but he appeared to be a lesser form of the fighter that beat Cain for the title. I want to see him fight again before he gets another shot at the gold. At 7-3, I don’t call the event a success, the Eye fight was too much of a letdown. The Browne/ Werdum non-stoppage took money out of our pocket which is brutal, but that is the game. Onto the next show in the never-ending cavalcade of UFC events. We are headed to Texas for a crackerjack of a Lightweight main event.
Selection 1: Sean Spencer +122
Selection 2: Jimmie Rivera -120
Selection 3: Drew Dober -160
Selection 4: Brad Tavares -181
Price: +929 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 74.3 units
Selection 1: Travis Browne +190
Selection 2: Jessica Eye to Win by Decision +164
Selection 3: Brad Tavares -181
Selection 4: Jimmie Rivera to Win by Decision +130
Price: +2634 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 131.69 units
Selection 1: Urijah Faber +118
Selection 2: Joanne Calderwood +125
Selection 3: Alistair Overeem +128
Price: +1018 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 61.1 units
Selection 1: Brad Tavares to Win by Decision +175
Selection 2: Jessica Andrade/Joanne Calderwood Doesn’t Go to Decision +110
Selection 3: Mickey Gall to Win by Submission +125
Selection 4: Fabricio Werdum/Travis Browne Total Rounds Under 2.5 -144
Price: +2102 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 147.12 units
Selection 1: Jessica Eye -135
Selection 2: Drew Dober -160
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic/Alistair Overeem Total Rounds Over 1.5 -123
Selection 4: Jimmie Rivera -120
Selection 5: Brad Tavares -181
Price: +1360 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 95.18 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Stipe Miocic $10000 Fighter 2: Jessica Andrade $9900 Fighter 3: Jessica Eye $10100 Fighter 4: Nik Lentz $10200 Fighter 5: Sean Spencer $8900 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Travis Browne $8700 Fighter 2: Mickey Gall $11400 Fighter 3: Jimmie Rivera $9700 Fighter 4: Jessica Andrade $9900 Fighter 5: Brad Tavares $9800 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Stipe Miocic -120 vs Alistair Overeem +128
It is probably worth noting that as of writing this breakdown, the Public is currently backing Miocic at 64%. Why is that significant? Well, I will tell you. The Public is 3-9 picking the main event of the last 12 PPVs. That isn’t good. While some of the fights are the same, not all of them are and they are 3-9 picking UFC title fights contested on the PPV. That also isn’t good. I put a lot of thought into rolling with Overeem here. Defending a title is difficult, defending it at HW is even harder. Stipe is the more durable fighter, but at HW that notion can disappear very quickly. I see Miocic finding success getting passed the defense of Overeem, which has been the key to Alistair’s recent success. Once he gets on the inside, his quick combinations will do the talking against the questionable chin of the Reem. His footwork and ability to move and strike will also help him to land the big strikes. Overeem needs a knockout, because I don’t feel he has the offensive output and/or durability to win a 5-round fight. Stipe takes this fight and I have him in my Gold Parlay.
It has become almost a rule that you need to consider a playing one of the main event fighters. If they go 5-round, that gives them 10 more minutes to add points. It is pretty simple. I am looking at 1 of 2 scenarios here. Either Stipe scores the early knockout and cashes in that way or he is able to pile up some decent offense over a longer fight before getting the finish. I would lead to the former scenario based on Overeem’s defense and vulnerable chin. Stipe scores the stoppage inside the first 10 minutes if not quicker. Spending money on this card isn’t an issue as there are a number of affordable options. That being said, there is also a lot of potential to see decisions in a lot these fights so stoppage points will be at a premium. Team Kamikaze.
Fabricio Werdum -199 vs Travis Browne +190
We have a rematch of a major upset from a couple of years ago. Not only was the fight an upset, it drastically change the trajectory of each man. Werdum has been a .500 fighter since the loss and Werdum went on to win the title and has been the significantly better fighter. What this fight comes down to is the mindset of Werdum. He is coming off the title fight loss and it happened in devastating fashion. I need to go back and create a data set, but I can say with confidence that over the last couple of years that fighters coming off of title fight loss (champ or challenger) don’t fare well in their next bout. It is hard to get motivated after reaching the top and then tumbling back down- Werdum is potentially in for a letdown. I also expect to see him come in over confident after beating Browne the first time. He fought Cain like a man possessed, but he was sloppy against Hunt and Stipe. I expect something similar here and Browne will make him pay. Werdum walks into an early right hand or simply struggles to land with consistency and Browne uses his long range weapons to hurt him on the outside. Still a tough fight, Browne is a Bronze Parlay leg.
As previously mentioned, there are a lot of fights that could end in a decision on this card. We need finishers. That is what Browne is. I don’t need to go over the numbers, but when he wins fights he usually does it with his opponent sprawled out on the floor. I’m not a huge Browne fan, but I am rolling with a pair of trends here: Post-title fight letdown and Rematch following a long first fight ending quickly. Browne joins Team Kamikaze.
CM Punk +400 vs Mickey Gall -355
No play here. The line by itself is enough to forget about touching this fight, but figure in the massive amount of uncertainty and it’s just better to keep your hands in your pockets here. I might look at a prop bet. I do wish Punk the best of luck. It takes balls to step into the Octagon with no actual previous combat experience. I also understand the frustration of fighters that feel passed over and the want of the MMA community to shut down a ‘wrastler’ trying to make it in their world.
I am going to take a shot at Gall on my Fantasy team. There is a legit chance of a quick finish both based on the skills of Gall and Punk. Punk hasn’t looked good in the footage I am seen and his ground game is arguably the worst part of his game shown in the clips. It could be an attempt to undersell what he brings, but I don’t think so. The weight cut is also rumoured to be going poorly, so that doesn’t bode well for his ability to go a full 15. Gall costs you a lot, but I like his chances of getting the finish. Team Overdrive.
Urijah Faber +118 vs Jimmie Rivera -120
Boy, was I disappointed to see this line. I understand why Rivera is the favourite, but I felt Faber’s name would be enough to get him the nod here. Not the case, but Jimmie is still playable. There is no doubt I will be playing Faber as a counter bet and most likely suggest pairing him with another counter bet in Jo Jo. Faber has been involved in several Post-title fight letdown scenarios and won. This one is different. But honestly, it is not the reason I picked against him. Rivera’s volume and counter wrestling should be the difference here. Faber isn’t a high volume striker and that means he needs his wrestling to be on point. Rivera’s constant pressure and defensive skills should hold Faber in check. I haven’t been impressed with Urijah against the likes of Frankie Saenz or Francisco River and Jimmie is a more complete fighter. Faber is closing is 37 and that is old for the division. Very old. Silver Play.
This is one of those fights that will most likely see the scorecards. Rivera has some pop in his hands and has picked up some recent knockouts, but stopping Faber won’t be easier. I am looking for volume here and lots of it. Land multi-punch combos and keep coming forward. I am also banking on a lot of people picking Faber here based on knowing who he is and who he has fought. They will look at the affordable $9700 and jump all over it. Without the added points from a decision, Faber won’t put up much in the points category. That will make Jimmie’s points that much more valuable. Team Overdrive.
Jessica Andrade -132 vs Joanne Calderwood +125
This is going to be a great scrap. I actually read a comment on a forum where someone was angry that this fight was on the main card. Yeah, they are women, but yeah they both would kick your ass. Mine too. Calderwood looked good at 125, maybe 115 is a little too draining and the fighters are a little too quick. Hamm gave her some trouble with her speed and Casey cracked her early with some quick punches. Andrade is an animal. She is relatively straight forward with her attack, but it is so hard to defuse. Once she gets into range, put a helmet on. I like the way she goes to the body to set up the head strikes and vice versa. Her speed and volume will be too much for Calderwood to overcome, especially the way Jo Jo lets opponents get in close. I do feel like there is a little value in backing a vet like Calderwood, because Jessica is making just her second 115-pound appearance. She showed no signs of slowing down against Penne, but there was a lot of 1-way traffic. If Andrade starts to slow down, that opens a whole other can of worms. Andrade in my Gold Parlay, but I have something for a backup play in mind on Jo Jo.
We need to be creative with our point production. Andrade’s volume is going to be a key scoring factor. She landed 117-strikes against Penne is 8 minutes and 206 against Sexton over a full 3 rounds. That will pile up points from a fighter most won’t be looking at, especially with a pair of HW fights on the card. Andrade could very well get the stoppage as her power appears to translate well against the smaller opponents. That stoppage won’t be of the one-punch variety, but instead after an accumulation of strikes so look for a big score either way. I have Jessica on both of my teams.
Jessica Eye -135 vs Bethe Correia +128
This line opened at nearly even and I hoped it would stay there. Correia doesn’t have a win over a fighter on the active UFC roster. She held her own against Pennington, but clearly lost the fight. If anything Raquel’s willingness to close the distance and clinch up allowed Bethe to land better shots then she was able to set up on her own. Eye won’t do that or at least she shouldn’t. Eye struggles when there is a threat of a takedown present. Correia isn’t a strong wrestler, so we should see a performance more akin to her fight with Kaufman and her domination of Leslie Smith. Eye’s hands are quicker and sharper, and her movement is much better. She has more power in her hands than her record suggests and if she piles up enough damage, Eye could put the Brazilian down. Gold Play!
The running narrative of finding finishes/points continues here. Eye is a decision machine, so is Bethe. That being said, when Eye is on she can compile some massive points with her volume. She is fighting at home so she will be amped up and Bethe is a girl that will be there to be hit. She landed 80 significant strikes in less than half a fight against Smith. She should compile numbers similar, but expanded over a full 15-minutes. If that isn’t the case it is probably because she stopped Correia and scored points that way. Either way, it’s a solid play and to further add to the value- most will look to other fighters for finishing power because of Eye’s history with decisions and because she is a woman. Their loss. Team Kamikaze- I gave some thought to doubling up Eye instead of Andrade, which is totally playable. I feel there is a greater chance of a stoppage with Andrade.
Nik Lentz -398 vs Michael McBride +348
This is clearly a No Play. I liked the original fight and was looking forward to it, but that is done now. Time to move on. McBride appears tailor-made for a grinder like Lentz. He will go to his back and most of his fights are quick- potentially making him vulnerable in longer bouts. He is also working on roughly 2 weeks notice which is hard. Lentz needs to be careful against a big submission capable fighter. Lentz takes it, but your money is spent better elsewhere.
I’m playing Lentz here on Team Kamikaze. For his career, he isn’t known for being a finisher. That being said, with McBride’s late notice debut, short fight time history, relative inexperience could lead to a finish if Lentz can break him. If he can’t, Nik has the ability to put up a Darren Elkins-like performance from his fight with Chas Skelly. Through a constant stream of takedowns and strikes, Elkins amassed 98 points via decision. Lentz averages just 52.4 points per fight, but he can pick up 3-4 takedowns (6-8 points) and 55-70 strikes (28-35 points) plus a decision (25 pts) and any advancement points. Those numbers could increase against a lower level of opponent. We need to be creative in finding points on this card, Lentz is flying under the radar, so let’s add him to the list.
Brad Tavares -181 vs Caio Magalhaes +175
Both guys are returning to action after prolonged layoffs. As I said in my prediction, Tavares is still developing and will use this time to do so. Magalhaes is set in his ways. My biggest concern here is Tavares’s ability to take a punch. He can be the better fighter in almost every area, but if Caio cracks him and he folds up- it won’t matter. Still, we have to play the percentages and not bet on the puncher’s chance. Especially when he really isn’t that good of a puncher. Brad should be able to piece him up on the feet, defend the takedown attempts, and his cardio will help him pull away as the fight progresses. On some sites, Tavares is drifting above -200, which is understandable. I still think he is a worthwhile play as part of my Bronze parlay.
Tavares isn’t a finisher and joins the long line of decision heavy fighters on this card, but styles make matchups. He can put up some decent striking totals when he opens up. He has a UFC-best 116 strikes on his ledger and Magalhaes is hittable, especially as he slows down. While Brad is known for his stopping power, I’m not impressed with how Magalhaes deals with adversity. He tapped like a bitch (didn’t know how else to say it) when Samman locked in the RNC and carried himself even worse after the fight. If Brad can land with frequency, I can see a finish materializing as the damage piles up. Tavares joins team Kamikaze.
CB Dollaway -180 vs Francimar Barroso +165– Cancelled
This was a fight where I waited to see the fantasy lines posted before I made my pick official. I like CB Dollaway here, but there are certainly avenues to victory for Barroso. I find that when I am on the fence, looking at the DK lines for a fight will help to finalize my play either way. Both of these fighters have been a part of bouts where the Fantasy line was in stark contrast to the betting line and the Fantasy numbers held up. Dollaway was a shocking DK dog and lost to Marquardt and Barroso was the DK favourite over Mutapcic and got the win. I was on the wrong end of both of those bouts. Here, as I expected CB is the fav, which served to solidify my findings and prediction. The more information we can gather the better. Dollaway offers more tools and should have a slight speed edge at 205. He loses some size, but it won’t be that much against FB. Unless Barroso can land the finishing blow or undermine Dollaway’s wrestling (I assume a KO is more likely than frequent takedowns) this is the Doberman’s fight to win. He falls into my Silver parlay, possible bump to the Gold depending on how I play it.
I left CB off of my Fantasy teams. This will be a grinding fight and could be low output. A stoppage isn’t completely out of the question, but Barroso is a tough nut to crack. At $10900, money is better spent elsewhere.
Yancy Medeiros -120 vs Sean Spencer +122
Here is my first upset pick of the night. Medeiros is a defensively flawed fighter. He is also a “volume” striker who doesn’t actually throw a tonne of volume. What it comes down to is his length and how it actually works against him. First, he allows fighters to get inside of his reach and attack. That is a problem by itself. More importantly, when he throws punches and attacks, he doesn’t get his hands back quick enough to defend. As a result, there are gaps in his defense that a quicker striker can capitalize on. Spencer is quicker and throws with more regularity. He also does a better job with his footwork and head movement, setting up both his offense and defense. That will be a major key in this fight. While he doesn’t have big knockout numbers, he has hurt fighters on multiple occasions- Pendred, Pyle, and Garcia were all stunned at some point during their fights. Medeiros doesn’t react well to getting hit and often allows fighters to add to the damage by becoming a stationary target. On top of all of this- the fighters that have had the most success against Spencer have used a heavy wrestling attack or at the least the threat of one to slow him down. Medeiros doesn’t offer that. Spencer either picks up a decision with his volume or scores a bit of a shocking stoppage victory. Key component of Silver parlay, possible inclusion on secondary Gold Parlay.
Spencer finalizes Team Kamikaze. As previously mentioned, he throws with volume and Mederios is there to be hit. He also has some pop in his hands, far more than the numbers suggest. With Medeiros coming up from LW, the power of a natural WW fighter could be an issue. He has been stopped before and Trinaldo had him in some serious trouble. Most people will overlook Spencer based on his 8:2 Decision to Knockout ratio. That is fine by me, either through volume or a stoppage (maybe a little of both) Spencer scores points and is cheap.
Drew Dober -160 vs Jason Gonzalez +153
We open the card with a fight that had me hesitating for a bit. I took a long hard look at Gonzalez here. He is bigger, has a sizeable reach and height advantage, and he can crack. He is also a threat off of his back. What I don’t like him to win this fight and what ultimately swayed me toward Drew, is that Gonzalez is a finisher with a long history of short fights. How will he hold up in a longer bout against a better opponent? Additionally, many of his recent wins came under the questionable match-making of Gladiator Challenge- 4 wins versus opponents totaling a 3-24 record. Yikes. Dober is durable and that can be tough against a fighter that normally destroys his opposition. JG didn’t look good in his TUF loss and was struggling early in his TUF win. Dober grinds him out here, potentially using his improved wrestling attacking. Silver Parlay.
1. Jessica Eye -135
2. Nik Lentz -398
3. Jessica Andrade -132
4. Stipe Miocic -120
5. Mickey Gall -355
6. CB Dollaway -180- Cancelled
7. Drew Dober -160
8. Jimmie Rivera -120
9. Brad Tavares -181
10. Sean Spencer +122
11. Travis Browne +190
1. Sean Spencer +122
2. Stipe Miocic -120
3. Travis Browne +190
4. Jessica Eye -135
5. Mickey Gall to Win by Submission +125
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Urijah Faber +118: When you can get Faber as a dog in a non-title fight he is worth a look. Leg 1 of my Counter Bet Parlay.
2. Joanne Calderwood +125: Jo Jo has been a little hit and miss since coming to the UFC. Maybe her last fight was a turning point. Leg 2.
3. Alistair Overeem +128: We have seen a lot of champs bite the dust recently, could Stipe be the next? Leg 3.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Information,
Stipe Miocic/Alistair Overeem Total Rounds Over 1.5 -123
With HWs the fight can be over quick- 1 punch. I had Miocic/AA Over 1.5 as the final leg of 2 big parlays and we all know how that turned out. AO’s recent resurgence is on the strength of his defense, he would be foolish to change that here. Over his last 3 fights he has gone to the 2nd round twice and the 3rd round once. Stipe is coming off of back to back 1st round finishes, but prior to that run he had a pair of 5 round fights and went over 1.5 rounds in 8 of 10 fights. Round 2 might seem like a year away when the leather starts flying, but I like the Over 1.5.
Fabricio Werdum/Travis Browne
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Mickey Gall to Win by Submission +125
The Under 1.5 isn’t worth the action, but it strongly suggests this fight isn’t getting to the scorecards. Punk hasn’t look that good on the mat in the film we have seen and that is where Gall appears to be the strongest. He has 2 pro wins, both by RNC. We are playing the percentages here. Either via takedown or knockdown, Gall gets the tap.
Jimmie Rivera to Win by Decision +130
Rivera put a brief streak of knockouts together, but with a slight increase in competition level he had back to back decisions. In total, he has 13 decision wins and has gone to the scorecards on 14 occasions compared to 6 finishes. Faber has been knocked out 3-times in 42-career bouts and the last one was a little questionable at best. He also represents another step up in competition for Rivera which raises the potential for another decision. This number helps out a bit with Rivera not being the underdog, as the likelihood is high that if he wins it is by decision.
Jessica Andrade/Joanne Calderwood Doesn’t Go to Decision +110
Both girls know how to finish. Andrade has finished 11 of her 14 wins. She showed against Penne that she comes to throw heat and chew bubble gum and there ain’t no Double Bubble in sight. That being said, she has been stopped 4-times as well- which is a product of her aggressive style. If she is unable to maintain her pace and starts to falter, look for Jo Jo to light her up. This fight is going to be pure violence and while it might go over the 2.5, the damage that will be dished out makes it hard to see this fight going the distance.
Jessica Eye/Bethe Correia
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Brad Tavares to Win by Decision +175
Brad Tavares hasn’t finished anyone since Phil Baroni. Yes, Phil Baroni. He has won 6 decisions since that fight and he has gone the distance 9-times in his career. Magalhaes is coming off of his first career loss by finish and while his underdeveloped striking style leaves him open to get cracked, based on Tavares’s numbers I’ll take a shot at the scorecards.Drew Dober/Jason Gonzalez
See the Betting Scenario Section.