UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor 2- ‘One More Time?’
So UFC 202 is in the books. The Featherweight champion won a fight at Welterweight against a former Lightweight title challenger. We got further confirmation that Rumble Johnson is one scary dude. And don’t look now, but Donald Cerrone is making a run at Welterweight while calling out the Lightweight champion for a rematch. I went 8-4, but lost a couple of key fights along the way. There is lots to discuss in the wake of 202, so let’s take a look at my winners and losers from the show.
McGregor took a lot of flack for the last fight and he came dangerously close to a repeat in the middle rounds again. Conor showed a lot of heart to gut this one out and do enough in the eyes of the judges to take the decision. To avoid repeating myself, this rivalry needs a break, Conor needs to defend his Featherweight title. I want to see Aldo/McGregor 2 happen and if after that he moves up to Lightweight, that would be fine with me. The UFC certainly breathed a sign of relief with one of their biggest stars getting a huge win in arguably the biggest fight they have ever put on. UFC 200 could have used that as the main event.Nate Diaz
Yes, he lost the fight, but the guy made bank and set up a huge trilogy fight. It was an awesome fight, but I’m not 100% sold on the decision just yet. I need to go back and rewatch the fight with nothing on the line. That always makes me bias no matter how objective I try to be. Nate’s post-fight comments came off as an excuse. He should let it leak in the days after the fight that he fought injured, that usually the best way to get the word out there. I honestly would like to see these guys go their separate ways for a bit before the third fight. Diaz needs to go back Lightweight where he could put a relevant run together, the big dogs at Welterweight are probably too much for him.Anthony Johnson
That was quick, violent, and definitive. ‘Rumble’ will most likely fight Cormier next for the title which is fine by me. I still want to see Johnson fight Jones, but that fight will have to wait. Anthony’s post-fight comments impressed me and made me a bigger fan. That dude has got a level head on his shoulders while he knocks other fighter’s heads off theirs.Donald Cerrone
What an impressive win. I felt like ‘Cowboy’ was exposing himself a little bit too much when pushing forward, but he clearly knew something we didn’t. Stopping Story is no joke. I like the call out of Alvarez, it is certainly warranted, but I don’t like seeing a guy winning fights in one divisionMike Perry
I still don’t like him based on his weigh-in antics, but that was a pretty strong first showing.Tim Means
Homasi didn’t offer much in name value, but Means took the fight and looked fantastic. Tim is one of the best 170ers not in the top 15 right now. I would like to see him get another shot at a ranked opponent, but if they re-booked his original opponent in Sean Strickland I would be fine with that.Cody Garbrandt
Mizugaki is no pushover, but ‘No Love’ tore through like he was nothing. Based on the growing heat I expect that he gets a shot at the Dominick Cruz and the title next.Raquel Pennington
This was a tough fight for Pennington, with a lot on the line. Phillips is no pushover, but she isn’t that well known. Raquel continues to build up her record, which is much better than the numbers suggest. I always look forward to her fights.Cortney Casey
The started wasn’t all roses, but Casey gutted it out and put away a pretty tough opponent. With back to back first round finishes, she is certainly making strides and should enter the rankings on Monday.Lorenz Larkin
He gambled and he won. Coming off a huge win over a top 10 ranked fighter, Larkin is now a free agent. Dominating a guy like Magny will certainly strengthen his negotiating power with the UFC, Bellator or whoever comes calling. That was a fantastic performance and honestly, Larkin is probably one of the most underrated kickers in MMA.Colby Covington
He simply dominated Griffin on the mat from start to finish and any opponent that isn’t on point with their counter wrestling is going to be in tough against Covington. It is time for a step up in competition.
I don’t see Glover as a loser for any other reason than that he lost a fight against a very dangerous opponent. Glover called out Johnson because he knew it was the fight to make. He took the risk and it didn’t pay off. Hopefully, he recovers and returns to action soon. There are still some solid matchups left on the table. I for one would like to see Teixeira and Gus fight at some point.Rick Story
Story had built some momentum and was gaining a foothold in a division that looked like it had passed him by. This was the type of fight where it looked like he had no answers for the weapons his opponent had to offer.Hyun Gyu Lim
The Korean was a hefty favourite, but elected to continuously walk into the right hand of Perry until he could take it no more. I still look forward to his fights as they almost always guaranteed some level of violence.Takeya Mizugaki
Mizugaki is clearly a fighter that is going to give trouble to 65-70% of the division, but that upper echelon is clearly beyond him. There are still plenty of good fights that he can take part in to finish out his UFC career.Randa Markos
The fight started well, but when you make an all or nothing headlock TDA- sometimes you get nothing. Markos is now 2-3 in the UFC and hasn’t won consecutive fights since 2013. She still deserves a spot on the roster, but this loss is a big step back.Neil Magny
Magny took a lot of damage in his fights against both Lombard and Lim. He was able to survive those, but Larkin wasn’t about to slow down. He never seemed to settle in and once the leg kicks started to land it was all survival mode from there. Magny is still a talented fighter and is capable of putting a run together much like he did after the loss to Maia.Alberto Uda
He solidified his position on his back and wait until his opponent eventually opened up and put him away shortly after that. I don’t see any reason to bring him back to the UFC for another fight.Final Thoughts
This was a good night of fights with 9 stoppages and a hell of a main event. I want to see it again, just not right away. Conor can go one of three directions, two of which won’t be disappointing. He needs to either defend his title against Aldo or vacate the belt while moving to Lightweight. Both of those options are fine by me. If he elects to hang onto the strap, but not defend it, and the UFC allows that to happen- it really puts a damper on the division and him as a fighter. Belts are meant to be defended, and considering he has never actually defended a belt he won at any point in his career- he needs to make a decision quickly. Diaz is still a fun fighter, but I struggle to see him breaking into the title picture at Welterweight and while Lightweight might be more realistic, it is far from a certainty. It is nice to see him get paid though.
I have struggled of late picking main events. Truth be told; if you look back at the Public Picks section, a lot of underdogs that the general populace have picked against have been getting their hand raised. Regardless, it is time to turn it around. Back to the drawing board with a boat load of fights moving on the horizon. Vancouver is up next! Oh Canada!
Selection 1: Anthony Johnson -186
Selection 2: Lorenz Larkin +125
Selection 3: Raquel Pennington -247
Selection 4: Hyun Gyu Lim to Win by KO/TKO/DQ -117
Price: +801 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 64.12 units
Selection 1: Alberto Uda +153
Selection 2: Artem Lobov -110
Selection 3: Anthony Johnson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -108
Selection 4: Rick Story/Donald Cerrone Total Rounds Under 2.5 +157
Price: +2291 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 137.44 units
Selection 1: Raquel Pennington to Win by Submission +475
Selection 2: Colby Covington/Max Griffin Total Rounds Under 2.5 +157
Selection 3: Nate Diaz +120
Price: +3151 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 220.57 units
Selection 1: Artem Lobov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200
Selection 2: Donald Cerrone -127
Selection 3: Cody Garbrandt/Takeya Mizugaki Total Rounds Over 1.5 -147
Selection 4: Anthony Johnson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -108
Price: +1635 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 114.47 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Nate Diaz $9200 Fighter 2: Donald Cerrone $10000 Fighter 3: Hyun Gyu Lim $11100 Fighter 4: Cody Garbrandt $10300 Fighter 5: Raquel Pennington $9200 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Anthony Johnson $10700 Fighter 2: Artem Lobov $10800 Fighter 3: Randa Markos $9600 Fighter 4: Donald Cerrone $10000 Fighter 5: Lorenz Larkin $8900 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Nate Diaz +120 vs Conor McGregor -120
Let’s get it started at the top of the card! Diaz is the underdog. I can see why, but obviously there is a strong arguement for the flipside as well. McGregor is going to be th more popular pick here which is playing a role here. When you look at the circumstances surrounding this fight, it’s Nate that should benefit more from a full camp. The guy had 11 days to prep, while Conor was getting ready for the biggest fight of his life prior to the change in opponent. I can understand how fighting at 170 would effect McGregor and he seemed to fight looking to finish from the start. Not a smart approach against a durable guy like Nate. I see this fight lasting much longer, with Conor doing a better job of setting up his strikes. At the same time, I expect to see more out of Nate early. Landing combos, uping the tempo and pace in the proccess. Diaz isn’t impossible to put away, but once this fight gets into rounds 3 and beyond, I think we see Nate start to take over. I love the plus money here and the trend seems to indicate that Diaz could push into the +120 range. Gold Parlay play.
Nate makes the cut on Team Kamikaze. His scoring potential is sizeable and he will be the second most popular pick in his fight. Over a 5 round fight, Diaz is easily capable of landing upwards to 120 strikes. Maybe more. As Conor slows, Nate is going to let his hands go and those numbers are going to climb. The finish is there to be had at any point in the fight, but sticking with my Rematch trend, the first fight was shorter so I expect something a little longer this time. Nate will produce and is very cheap. Sign him up.
Anthony Johnson -186 vs Glover Teixeira+190
This should be a fantastic scrap and most likely isn’t going the distance. Both guys have big power in their hands and can wrestle. I simply see Johnson having more pop, the better overall tools to deploy it with, and the defensive game to keep Glover from shooting on him with success. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rumble gain a little value closer to fight day, so for a single bet hold off. If you are intending to bet Glover, don’t be afraid to hold off until after the opening round. If Johnson starts strong, but shows signs of slowing after round 1, Glover’s value should push over +200. If it doesn’t make round 2, Rumble probably finished him and you saved some cash in the process. I like Jonson in my Silver parlay. Glover is a dangerous opponent and if Rumble gets overzealous looking for the finish, Teixeira is capable of rallying in rounds 2 and 3 for either a finish or a decision win.
Rumble is going to headline Team Overdrive. He will be a popular pick, but he is going to produce. Glover is aggressive and will stand with him. That hasn’t been good for previous opponents and it won’t be good for him. Glover has been cracked with some big shots in previous fights and Rumble throws the type of bombs that you don’t recover from. Considering his high rate of finishing, we are getting a slight discount at $10700. Pretty straight forward play here.
Rick Story +148 vs Donald Cerrone -127
I love this bet. Cerrone has looked great at WW and while Story certainly presents some issues, his style will open him up to Cowboy’s offense. Story can win this fight with pressure, body shots, and takedowns. Unfortunately, when he moves forward he attacks with wide strikes that Cerrone should have no issue sniping counters against. Watch for that stepping knee down the middle against a much shorter opponent. Cerrone’s hand speed and leg kicks will also play a big role here. Cerrone is a veteran fighter that is still developing, that’s rare. Cerrone makes the cut in my Gold parlay.
Cowboy also joins Nate on team Kamikaze along with pulling double duty on Team Overdrive. If you can get off to a good start over your first 3 fights, nothing is sweeter then looking at the guys at the top of your content sitting at 400-430 points and no fighters left when you have 2 and have 275 to 300 on the board. Story is very hittable and while he has never been finished with strikes, neither had Cote. I think people are waiting for Donald to fumble at WW, he still might but this isn’t the fight to do so. Cerrone scores big late.
Hyun Gyu Lim -250 vs Mike Perry +250
This pairing should produce some fireworks for however long they are both vertical. Perry likes to brawl which will play directly into Lim’s hands and knees- if you know what saying! Lim hits like a truck and has a pretty diverse arsenal to deploy that power. My biggest concern is his less than stellar cardio, that prevents him from landing in my top play. In fact, at this price I won’t touch him. Lim winning by knockout is a much more enticing play.
Yes please! At $11100, Lim is costly- very costly. I like him anyway. He has 10 wins by knockout and a pair of submission compared to 1 really lonely decision win that came in his pro debut. He also has 9 1st round stoppages. The man gets after it and gets after it hard. Obviously, we run the risk of him getting off to a good start, going for the finish, not getting it, and fading- see the Magny fight for an example. I’ll run that risk against a lower level opponent, debuting, on short notice. Team Kamikaze. Crazy how that lineup is shaping up.
Tim Means -385 vs Sabah Homasi +375
No play here. I think Means takes this fight, but not worth the risk. Potential prop play here.
Means is a legit threat to finish the fight and should be given consideration for your DK team. For me, it came down to Tim or Lim and I took Lim because I think the finish is there to be had.
Cody Garbrandt -475 vs Takeya Mizugaki +472
I will pass here as well. Mizugaki doesn’t get near the credit for how good he really is and he is going to present a much stiffer test for Cody then most expect. No value on the side bet.
Where Cody is worth a play is the Fantasy line. It is a clear indication of how much closer this fight should be line with Garbrandt sitting at just $10300. He certainly could finish Mizugaki, but I am counting on this fight going the distance. Garbrandt throws at a decent pace and Mizugaki will be there to hit. Multiple scoring scenarios for Cody makes him a viable play on a team that is already stacked with absolute killers- Team Kamikaze.
Raquel Pennington -247 vs Elizabeth Phillips +226
I’ve got Pennington in my Silver play, but it’s the type of play that could be easily left off your scorecards. She is a heavy betting favourite, but she is a bit of shocking underdog at DK. Phillips has been out for a long time, tends to gas, and seems like less accomplished version of Pennington. Raquel should be able to distance herself in rounds 2 and 3 or capitalize on some the defensive grappling issues that Phillips presents.
I can’t resist playing Pennington at just $9200. I was legit shocked that she is the dog here. Phillips has 1 UFC win and nearly choked it away against Jessamyn Duke. That is much to write home about. She hasn’t looked bad in her earlier defeats, but Raquel is a pretty stiff test. I always like to key on the WMMA fights where a finish could materialize or volume striking is there to be had. Phillips will slow and we have seen Pennington land 75+ strikes on 3 separate occasions- over a 3 round fight we should see that happen again. If Raquel doesn’t get the stoppage on the feet, we have seen her develop a strong submission acumen. Phillips nearly got subbed on multiple occasions in her last fight and she tends to put herself in some bad spots when on the mat. I could easily see Raquel choking her out with just one opportunity. People are going to overlook Rocky, but she is a must play! Her low price allows me to complete a very strong Team Kamikaze. She is one of the best plays on the card.
Artem Lobov -110 vs Chris Avila +101
Artem, how you have let me down in the past. Not once, but twice. Please don’t make it thrice. On the show, Lobov was a killer once he got a second chance. Based on Avila’s low level of experience I see this fight playing out similar to those TUF wins. Lobov is unorthodox and that can create a lot of issues for fighters that don’t know how to deal with his pressure. He should find success backing Avila down and then attacking. Avila has had problems against less experienced fighters that move forward- he just can’t turn them away. Lobov gets an early win for Team McGregor against a guy that probably wouldn’t be in the UFC without his Diaz connections. Still, it’s Artem, I can’t include him in my lower risk plays- Bronze parlay.
Lobov has just a couple of knockouts as a pro, has a below .500 record, and for most people that are picking their team, his 6.3 average points per fight isn’t going to help his cause either. At $10800, he is pretty expensive and by comparison- Rumble, Means, and Neil Magny are going to be more popular picks in the same price range. That significantly increases the potential for unique points. Pair that with real potential for an early finish (we know he won’t score with volume) and I’ll take a shot. Team Overdrive.
Randa Markos -129 vs Cortney Casey +130
A solid line here. Markos has fought some pretty stiff competition and isn’t an easy out for anyone. Casey’s two UFC losses have been against pretty good fighters, but she struggled once the action move out of the opening round. She is now 0-3 when she can’t get the first round finish. Her win over Stanciu was impressive, but it seems more and more that Stanciu isn’t UFC caliber. Markos’s scrappy approach should drag Casey into the deep waters of this fight where she has struggled in the past. Additionally, her ground game will replicate the issues that Jo Jo gave Cortney on the feet. Randa showed she can eat punches and keep moving forward, that should be enough to take CC’s best early and take her out late Gold Play.
I have Markos on Team Overdrive. This pick shares a number of similarities to my Pennington play. She is a slight underdog, should have the advantage just about anywhere this fight takes place, and is facing a foe that is known to slow down as the action advances. Randa isn’t going to overwhelm Casey with her striking volume, but she has some pop in her hands and the takedowns will be there as well. Markos has a decent submission game that she will looking to call upon it once she puts Casey on her back. With decent value, overlooked by a large portion of Fantasy players, and finishing skills make the Canadian a solid play.
Neil Magny -125 vs Lorenz Larkin +125
I like this fight and I know it’s being used to boost Fight Pass viewership, but it should probably be on the main card. If Magny wins, he is very close to a title shot. If Larkin wins, he improves to 4-1 at WW, moves into the rankings, and has some big fights ahead of him. Magny has a number of ways to win this contest, but I think his diversity will be trumped by the single dominant skill set of Larkin. Neil has got rocked in a couple of his recent fights, but his opponents were unable to follow-up in their early success and Magny capitalized. Maybe Larkin doesn’t land something huge, but a serious of sizeable strikes will have a similar impact. I also really like the way the leg kicks of Lorenz are going to take away from what Magny has to offer. Neil does his best work in close, but Larkin is going to circle out, use his speed, and avoid letting him clinch up. The speed and power has me leaning towards Lorenz in a Silver parlay.
Larkin has pop in his hands and as mentioned Magny can be hurt. He has a pair of knockouts over 2 very strong WW strikers on his resume. Lorenz will also carry a pretty decent pace. Most of all, Larkin is cheap. At just $8900, he is an affordable Fantasy option. Considering we are able to line up 4 legit favourites on this team, Larkin makes a solid 5th pick.
Colby Covington -303 vs Max Griffin +294
No play here. Covington should win this fight, but risk/reward is simply not there.
Colby is the most expensive option on the Fantasy card, which will throw some people off. He has a reputation for being a bit of a boring fighter, but he has good finishing skills. Still too much to spend here.
Alberto Uda +153 vs Marvin Vettori -162
The opening fight of the night and I’m on the dog. Uda didn’t look bad by any stretch in his debut and had Collier in some trouble. He relies heavily on his clinch, which can be effective, but it can also make him too one-note offensively.
I like the scenarios in play here. Vettori is debuting and making a step up from the regional scene in Europe which can be a little hit and miss. He is also a fighter with limited experience beyond the opening round, which can create issues as well. Uda is coming off his first career loss and gets his second fight in the UFC- both of those scenarios suggest he should put forth a better performance. I’ll take Uda to pick up the upset- Bronze play.
Uda actually comes in a pretty big Fantasy fav, I like that betting on his as the dog, but I don’t have a spot for him on my fantasy team. He could give you some unique points a stoppage could come inside the first half of the fight. Certainly worth a look if you want to go off the board a bit.
1. Donald Cerrone -127
2. Hyun Gyu Lim -250
3. Anthony Johnson -186
4. Raquel Pennington -247
5. Colby Covington -303
6. Tim Means -385
7. Cody Garbrandt -475
8. Nate Diaz +120
9. Randa Markos -129
10. Lorenz Larkin +125
11. Alberto Uda +153
12. Artem Lobov -110
1. Nate Diaz +120
2. Alberto Uda +153
3. Lorenz Larkin +125
4. Donald Cerrone -127
5. Raquel Pennington to Win by Submission +475
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Information.
Nate Diaz/Conor McGregor
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Anthony Johnson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -108
I certainly was tempted by the Under 1.5, but at -115 the value isn’t there. I have Rumble winning this fight and winning by knockout. He might need more then the first half to get the job done, probably not, but it is a nice fall back to have especially when you are looking at better money. Glover is a capable stopper as well, which is probably adding to the slight discrepancy. I like the Under, but this play simply makes more sense.
Rick Story/Donald Cerrone Total Rounds Under 2.5 +157
Cerrone has stopped his opponent in each of his last 3 wins. The guys has vicious power and put it on display against Cote. It takes a lot to put the tough Canadian down and he did it a couple of times. The height advantage of Cowboy should help him to land his high kicks with frequency and the aggression/ wide strikes of Story will have him constantly in the line of fire from Cerrone’s knees and fists. We also have to keep in mind that Cerrone has had issues with body damage and that is an area that Stroy will target a lot. Play the Under.
Hyun Gyu Lim to Win by KO/TKO/DQ -117
This is a similar play to the Rumble prop. If Lim is going to win this fight it will probably be by knockout. There is a very good chance that the fight ends in the opening round, but for slight dip in your return, you can still cash in on a Lim stoppage in the second half of the fight. It did take Lim into the second frame to stop Guimaraes and with the recent change in opponent, we could see a bit of a feeling out process. We also need to keep in mind that Lim’s loss to Magny was largely due to his cardio not holding up after hurting his foe early. That could result in the Korean striker using a slightly more cautious pace.
Tim Means/Sabah Homasi Total Rounds Over 1.5 -117
Means is a killer, but sometimes it takes him a bit to land that finishing blow. Of his last 5 wins, 3 took place in the final round/ by decision, another came in round 2, and just a single fight ended in the opening round. Homasi is taking a step up in competition and has been finished in 4 of his 5 career losses, but all of those defeats have come in the 2nd or 3rd round. Means could easily take him out in the opening moments of the fight, but both fighters have numbers that suggestion a stoppage may happen, just later in the fight.
Cody Garbrandt/Takeya Mizugaki
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Raquel Pennington to Win by Submission +475
We are going all in here as we could easily play the Under or the Pennington Finish prop. Raquel has developed a sneaky submission game and Phillips takes some risks on the mat that can get her in trouble. More importantly, if/when Phillips starts to slow down she is likely to shoot and if Pennington shuts her down the submission could easily follow. I like the big number here, could be the sleeper pick of the night.
Artem Lobov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200
I know his record says otherwise, but I just don’t see Lobov as a fighter capable of winning a decision right now. I would expect that he either loses a decision with another lackluster performance or he comes out firing and finishes Avila. If that is the case let’s push all the chips we have in on Lobov with the best possible price. This prop might be a better option than playing Lobov straight up.
Colby Covington/Max Griffin
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Alberto Uda/Marvin Vettori
See the Betting Scenario Section.