UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley- ‘The Golden One’
Another title fight and another new champion! UFC 201’s headliner didn’t last long as many expected it not to and Tyron Woodley emerged as the next Welterweight champion, ending the run of Robbie Lawler in violent fashion. We also saw the next Strawweight contender rise to the forefront and a much-needed win by a down and out former Welterweight contender. Let’s take a look at the Winners and Losers from Saturday Night.Winners
Karolina showed a lot of heart against a very dangerous opponent. She started slow, but came on strong in round two and turned the fight in her favour with vicious knees to the body. She is the new #1 contender in the Strawweight division and there are already a number of fun storylines to build the fight on. Both Kowalkiewicz and Joanna come from Poland, both are undefeated, and they fought as amateurs with JJ getting her hand raised. That should make for an excellent fight. On a side note, how many times did Goldie rep the Polish connection last night? Seriously.
No one on the card needed a win as bad as this guy. He was 1-5 over his last six fights and all indications were that this was it with another loss. It wasn’t all sunshine and candy though as he nearly punched himself out after he couldn’t finish Brown. That body kick was vicious and Jake threw it like his career depended on it. I don’t buy into the “he’s back” sentiment, but he did take out a fighter to endured a similar resurgence after some significant struggles.Erik Perez
Goyito continues to develop as a fighter and showed a much improved all-around game. He also risked it all in third round of a fight that he was either ahead 2-0 or at the very least tied at one round apiece. That could have been a disaster. Nonetheless, he got the win and probably widened his fan base in the process.Nikita Krylov
The Light Heavyweight division has a new fighter on the rise! Krylov put forth his best foot to date and took out a solid veteran. The young Ukrainian’s recent success in fights that last longer than a round is encouraging and he cut down on the amount of damage he took. He has power, submission skills, and pushes the pace very effectively. I don’t want to see Nikita pushed too quickly, but with the lack of depth in the division, he is going to move up quickly.Anthony Hamilton
What a huge win! Hamilton has a reputation for being a grinder, but he threw that aside with a brutal stoppage win over a normally durable opponent. The biggest gap in his arsenal has been his distance striking, which looked improved in a small sample size.Wilson Reis
He could have sat this one out. Reis had a title fight taken away and he could have folded up shop and shut it down. Instead, he took on a dangerous opponent that would have cost him his title shot with a loss. Wilson put him away in impressive fashion and then called out Ian McCall for his next fight knowing that DJ is penciled in to fight the next TUF winner. I like his moxy!
Yes he is the new champion and yes he did it emphatic fashion. If he had left it alone at that, he is a clear winner. Unfortunately, the ‘Chosen One’ decided to play post-fight matchmaker and hilarity ensued. Stephen Thompson is clearly the next title contender. Thompson’s victories over Hendricks and MacDonald are more than enough to warrant the shot at the gold. Stephen asked for the fight face to face with the new champion and T-Wood outright avoided him. Instead, Woodley asked for either Nick Diaz or GSP- money fights. Also known as fighters coming off the couch. Honestly, I think both Diaz and GSP beat him, but Thompson represents a more present threat. A champion should fight all comers.Robbie Lawler
It is hard to put Robbie here and honestly he isn’t a loser beyond the fact that he isn’t the champion anymore. The man went to war to win the title and defended it twice in Fight of the Year fights. Unfortunately, the impact of those battles may have caught up to him. Lawler needs to take a break and rest up. Despite the depth in the Welterweight division, Robbie can earn a big money rematch with a win or two.Rose Namajunas
Rose started strong, but faded and a lot of that had to do with her inability to maintain the distance she used so effectively in the first round. Namajunas is still young and will growth from this defeat like she did her last loss.Matt Brown
Brown had never been knocked out prior to this fight. The body kick that finished him had been hinted at, more like screamed at us, as a clear vulnerability for Matt. The near knockout that started the fight could be an indication of his aggressive style catching up with. Brown will remain a fun action fighter, but he is in need of a step back in competition to get his feet under him.Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal nearly finished Pearson, but then coasted to the decision win over a pretty inactive round 3. Whether it’s mental or physical, you have to wonder what is going on with Jorge as he has done this multiple times and in some contests that were much closer. I’m a big fan, but if he wants big name fights I want to see more out of him in these type of fights.Damian Grabowski
Another lauded European fighter has crashed hard in his two UFC fights. Grabowski has roughly 150 second of UFC action under his belt and got stopped in both of those fights. This loss was more violent then the first. I don’t want to see him get the boot, but he has definitely been relegated to the undercard of future Euro-card.The Judges
We had 6 of 11 fights end inside the distance and a couple of one-sided decisions that were ‘easy’ to score, but the Judges screwed up the Graves/Velickovic fight. The opening round went to Bojan a 10-8 or 10-9 Graves worked in round 2, but how round 3 was scored for the Serbian is beyond me. Graves didn’t do that much, but he did more that Bojan. It felt wrong and Buffer announcing that we had a winner only to recant to the draw made it worse. I also struggle to understand how Masvidal’s near stoppage of Pearson wasn’t considered a 10-8. I like the 10-8s that are starting to show up, but let’s be consistent. If you are dropped and batter like that, it is a 10-8 more so than a round of complete back control and semi-close submission attempts.Final Thought
I had a feeling going into this fight that Woodley would be able to land that right early and that would decide the fight one way or another. If Lawler would have been able to survive it, I feel he picks up the win later on. I’m not a Woodley fan and I think he has benefited from of opportunistic match-making with the former champion running through the legit contenders and opening the door for Woodley to sneak in and take the title. I seem him as a slightly better version of Josh Koscheck; more dangerous single strike weapon, wrestling, and worse cardio. Time will tell. I went 7-3, started 7-0, should have been 8-0, and then everything came crashing down with Matt Brown. I’m 16-5 over the last two shows, which is decent, but I feel like I could have done more. Check out the Bet Pack below. UFC Fight Night 92 is less than a week away, time to get to work.
Selection 1: Anthony Hamilton -125
Selection 2: Michael Graves -211
Selection 3: Erik Perez -125
Selection 4: Matt Brown to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -115
Price: +793 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 63.43 units
Selection 1: Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +145
Selection 2: Damien Brown -112
Selection 3: Ryan Benoit +115
Selection 4: Nikita Krylov by TKO/KO/DQ +140
Price: +2293 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 137.58 units
Selection 1: Ryan Benoit/Fredy Serrano Total Rounds Under 2.5 -105
Selection 2: Erik Perez -125
Selection 3: Cesar Arzamendia/Damien Brown Total Rounds Under 1.5 +152
Selection 4: Anthony Hamilton/Damian Grabowski Total Rounds Over 1.5 -129
Price: +1472 x Bet: 8 units
Selection 1: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision +105
Selection 2: Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +145
Selection 3: Rose Namajunas to Win by Decision +145
Selection 4: Matt Brown to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -115
Price: +2201 x Bet: 8 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Robbie Lawler $10600 Fighter 2: Matt Brown $10900 Fighter 3: Nikita Krylov $10200 Fighter 4: Damien Brown $9800 Fighter 5: Hector Sandoval $8400 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Rose Namajunas $10800 Fighter 2: Erik Perez $9700 Fighter 3: Anthony Hamilton $9400 Fighter 4: Michael Graves $10500 Fighter 5: Ryan Benoit $9500 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Robbie Lawler -142 vs Tyron Woodley +162
I am a little surprised that so many people are picking Woodley to win this fight. It might have something to do with the number of recent upsets and titles changing hands that has people backing the underdog challenger. T-Wood has been out of action for a long time and while that might lead to a leap in skill, I still expect him to carry the same physical capabilities. He is fast and explosive, with serious power. Unfortunately, his body doesn’t allow him to carry those characteristics deep into fights. To beat Robbie he has to do it in round 1, round 2 tops. Lawler’s aggressive forward pressure is going to keep Woodley backing up for the duration and once Tyron starts to slow down he won’t be able to hold up under the power and ferocity of the champion. If/when he shoots for TDs, Lawler will make him work too hard and tire him out in the proccess. I have Lawler in my Gold play and will also be looking at a prop bet here.
Robbie’s finishing skills are well-documented which makes him an A-lister. Beyond that, this is a 5-round fight and over his last four 5 round affairs, he has averaged 107 significant strikes. We also have to factor in the late round push factor. He finished Rory and came close against Condit and Hendricks. If Robbie puts up 100+ strikes and then scores a late finish he could climb into the 110-120 point range. He will be a common pick, which is a bit of a detractor- but I am loading up my top team and he is a must have. Team Kamikaze.
Rose Namajunas -205 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +190
I was hoping this line might be a little closer, but I am not the least bit surprised that they are set here. Namajunas has really come into her own since the title fight loss. KK has put together a pair of solid performances, but Rose represents a sizeable step up in competition. Rose is far more diverse than any of KK’s previous opponents and unless she comes out completely flat, Thug has multiple avenues to victory here. KK doesn’t have the power or distance striking to deal with Rose outside of the clinch and Namajunas is too good on the inside for KK to consistently outpoint her. It should be fairly one-sided if/when they hit the mat. Rose makes the cut in my Gold parlay.
Rose takes the head of Team Overdrive. She is darn expensive at $10800, which combined with being a female fighter should push people away from her as a top flight option. I would expect that most will spend the extra $100 and go with Matt Brown or save $100 and play Jorge Masvidal instead. Rose has finished 4 of her 5 career wins and all 3 of her TUF bouts. She knows how to get it done. Her aggressive ground game will also produce points over a 15-minute fight with takedowns and positional advancement scoring for her. She should land between 55-70 or more significant strikes on the feet against a fighter that gave up 70 to Heather Clark. Team Overdrive as the leader of my sleeper team.
Matt Brown -259 vs Jake Ellenberger +284
I am not going to play Brown straight up. If you are backing Matt, you need to look at the prop options against a fighter that has been finished a lot in recent bouts. More on that in prop section.
Brown joins Robbie Lawler in a murder’s row on fighters on Team Kamikaze. He brings immense pressure and is capable of landing a lot of strikes in a short period of time. He put up 118 strikes against Erick Silva and has finished his opponent in 6 consecutive wins. Making him even more of a must-have is Ellenberger’s recent track record. Jake has been finished in 4 of his last 6 losses and looks like a shell of his former self. I can’t see him surviving a full 3 rounds under the pace and damage that Brown piles up. If he does, look for Matt to score more than 100 significant strikes, mainly at close range.
Francisco Rivera +148 vs Erik Perez -125
This is where my new style of breaking fights really pays off. This fight has a lot of potential to be close, but if its not (short of scoring a knockout) Rivera is going to struggle to match the weapons of Perez. Perez offers a better takedown game, superior chin, and improving technical striking game. The combination of Alliance-style footwork and ability to slip into range and fire big power strikes will give Rivera all kinds of trouble. We have seen Francisco rocked multiple times. Figueroa hurt him a couple of times, but his cardio failed. Additionally, I like Perez’s wrestling to score some key takedowns. This line has moved some, but I am still comfortable enough to play Perez in my Silver section.
Perez joins team Overdrive. The fantasy line is even, $9700, as it can’t move like the betting line. This gives us a bit of a discount on a favourite. Rivera has been subbed 3-times and knocked out once, which is a key part of the puzzle when looking for solid scoring potential out of our fighter. Perez has 11 finishes in 15 wins, including 7 by sub. He isn’t an overwhelming volume striker, but with Rivera giving up north of 3 sig. strikes per minute and Perez capable of scoring takedowns, a decision win can still produce points.
Ian McCall +216 vs Justin Scoggins -223– Canceled
I wasn’t going to pay Scoggins initially, but out of everything that was left on the table I liked him the most to round out my Silver parlay. I am considering putting some thought into hedging with a play on McCall. Scoggins’s style should work as a nice counter to what Creepy does well. Additionally, by the numbers Scoggins is much better defensively and if he can maintain his output the defensive numbers should lead him to a decision win. I’m not against you leaving him off of your Silver play and going with just 3-legs, I like to roll the dice.
No play here. Scoggins is pretty affordable, but I see this going the distance. All points scored will be via striking as McCall is too difficult to take down.
Nikita Krylov -175 vs Ed Herman +191
Krylov has been tearing it up of late and I’m 5-2 predicting his fights over his UFC career. Herman is a pretty savvy veteran and could capitalize on the mistakes or gaps that NK leaves by being so aggressive. But, it is hard to put your money on the smaller, slower, and older fighter capitalizing on his opponent’s mistake as his only legit avenue to victory. Krylov is better at what Herman does best, which is the clinch game. He hits harder, has a better chin, and is more active. I am not saying that Ed couldn’t knock him out or grab a limb or neck, but its just not worth it. Herman’s durability has started to drop off and Krylov can exploit that. His recent success fighting into the middle round breeds a little more confidence, if this fight doesn’t end early. Krylov is part of m Gold Parlay.
I really don’t need to go into much detail here. We are getting a fighter that has finished every one of his wins and all but 1 in the opening round for $10200. Can’t turn that down. Herman is tough, but if he survives to see the judges, Krylov’s aggressive approach and Ed’s willingness to trade will result in some big striking totals. Either way, points are here to take. Team Kamikaze.
Jorge Masvidal -210 vs Ross Pearson +196
A Welterweight bout for a pair of career Lightweights. Masvidal has spent some time at 170 and will probably stick around with the IV ban. Pearson is more likely to return to 155, but is trying to get in a quick turn-around with minimal weight cut. I could be wrong. Masvidal is a horribly frustrating fighter to bet on, but he should have Pearson horribly out-gunned here. Masvidal is the better striker that is both faster and longer. If the vertical exchanges aren’t going well, he has very good wrestling and should be able to take Ross down with regularity. At this price, I will be backing Masvidal as part of the Gold package and will look for prop bet.
Masvidal has power and submission skills and Pearson has a questionable chin, but I expect this fight to go the distance. If they do go to decision, Masvidal could get by using a lot of jabs and footwork to skirt by. There is far more scoring potential with other fighter priced in the same market.
Anthony Hamilton -125 vs Damian Grabowski +115
This line took a big jump in the wrong direction with Hamilton sliding from -110 to his current -125. It is still playable. A lot of people love Grabowski, I have nothing against him, I just feel this is a bad matchup for him. He is significantly undersized and fights a similar style to his opponent. In Hamilton’s losses, his opponents were able to force him to strike and not clinch up. Grabowski is very accepting of fighters that look to close the gap and either push him into the wall or put him on his back. It seems like he feels he can work his way out of any bad spot, which he has had success doing, but against bigger fighters in the UFC that is a major mistake. Hamilton is 10-1 in fights that go beyond the first round and Damian doesn’t have a single opening round win over his last 8 fights dating back to 2011. Hamilton grinds him down, imposes his size, and peppers away with top position and clinch strikes. With Scoggins coming off the card I need to fill a void in my Silver parlay. Hamilton adds more pop to the Parlay, but a little more risk considering his chin and that anything can happen at HW.
Hamilton is still the Fantasy dog at $9400 and there is a track record suggesting that the Fantasy favourites that go against the betting line are worth a bet. I’ll stick with Anthony here. But he gives us some decent bang for our buck. At 42.3 points per fight, he doesn’t look like a big point producer- but he has a couple of quick losses in there that skew the numbers. In his 2 UFC wins, he has scored a combined 8 takedowns and 143 strikes over a little less than 5 rounds. He does a good job of staying active and throws hard on the mat. Takedowns and strikes will start to pile up over 3 rounds and a stoppage will score as well. Team Overdrive.
Wilson Reis -290 vs Hector Sandoval +269
No bet there on this fight. Reis should win, but considering the circumstances surround this fight it is best to stay away from the favourite. I am considering a bet on Sandoval in the Counter section. I will explain more there.
So you have probably been waiting for the other shoe to drop for Team Kamikaze- Lawler, Brown, and Krylov so far? Yeah, I am going to have to play a sub $9000 pick. Sandoval is just that. The guy throws massive heat with everything he offers. He doesn’t have a lot of finishes on his record, but Reis has a history of getting hurt in fights and has been knocked out twice. If Hector can crack that chin, he could put him down. If not, he could spend the entire fight on his back. I’ll take a chance with a TAM fighter staying vertical and doing some damage. There are only 2 options still affordable in this circumstance and I don’t trust Ellenberger enough against Brown.
Michael Graves -211 vs Bojan Velickovic +201
Velickovic is a live dog here, but he has to fight a picture perfect fight. I don’t see that happening. He has to use his reach and lateral movement to spend the entire fight on the outside picking away at Graves. Additionally, Graves will have to abandon his normal wrestling-heavy gameplan. Bojan’s lack of volume will open te door for Graves to push him back and either shoot or clinch. Graves has way too many ways of getting Velickovic to the mat for him to defend against. Once Graves establishes that he can take Velickovic down, the offense should drop even more for the Serbia. Graves outworks him and dominates him on the mat. He joins my Silver play.
I also have Graves on Team Overdrive. He has finished 5 of his 6 career wins and scored a submission on TUF. In his only decision win, he picked up 7 takedowns which will produce points. He isn’t a big striker on the feet, but he is constantly looking to advance his position on the mat. Velickovic has never been finished, so we could be leaning on the decision here. Graves isn’t a big name and when compared to the other fighters in his price bracket, Masvidal, Lawler, and Krylov are all going to be more popular options. We need points and unqiue points at that- Graves should produce.
Ryan Benoit +115 vs Fredy Serrano -110
This fight has been bumped to the main card with the loss of Scoggins/McCall, but for the Betting Scenarios we will look at it based on its original spot on the card. Benoit is scrappy and aggressive, but has struggled against more refined competition. He has shown that he can compete anywhere the fight goes, but he can also be overmatched. For Serrano, he comes from a great wrestling background- but he is very new to the MMA game and getting up there in age. He could very well hit the cage and show a sizeable leap from his last performance, but at the same time he way be set in his ways. I like Benoit’s aggression and power to push Serrano. When Benoit has time to see TDs coming he is decent at shutting them down. Serrano doesn’t do a great job of blending his wrestling and striking together, clearly showing when he is going to strike or shoot. In brief glimpses, he has struggled with aggressive strikers which is what Benoit is. His combination striking, stance switches, and constant forward pressure will be a lot to overcome for Serrano. The power that Benoit holds will also hold up well against the one and done offense of his opponent. Benoit is still a bit of a wildcard and Serrano’s improvements are unknown- Bronze leg.
Benoit doesn’t mess around when he is looking for a finish. All 8 of his wins have come inside the distance, 4 in the opening round. He is aggressive to a fault, but when he lands as he did against Pettis- it is night-night. That is rare at 125 pounds, which will have most people overlooking him. I like him for that reason and we are all aware of the finishing rates for fighters on the opening prelims. Take Benoit at $9500 on team Overdrive.
Cesar Arzamendia +103 vs Damien Brown -112
Arzamendia’s striking is oddly effective, but odd and erratic at the same. He is hyper aggressive and pushes the pace, a pace that I don’t think he can keep up for a full 3 rounds. Additionally, his durability is a major question mark. Reyes cracked him with 1 legit punch and the fight was over quickly. In his TUF semi-final bout he got hit with a body shot and tapped immediately. More concerning is how he reacted to being put on the floor. He looked lost. Once his opponent got him down, he didn’t do much to defend and was looking for a way out. Brown is durable and his 100% takedown focussed. If he can survive the opening onslaught, look for Cesar to start to slowdown and the takedowns to come much easier. For his limited skill set he held his own against Patrick and did it on short notice. For this fight he has a full camp and is taking on an opponent that is a step back. Brown scores takedowns, lands top position strikes, and Arzamendia folds under the pressure. Brown nearly made the cut in my Silver parlay, but he slips back to the Bronze section until he picks up a win at this level. Also keep an eye on the Live Bet option; if Arzamendia has a good first round but appears to be fading late re-up on Brown at a better price.
I’ve got Brown in my final spot on Team Kamikaze. He will be flying under the radar, overlooked by 85% or more of players. Brown has 10 finishes in 15 wins and has the skills t exploit his opponent’s greatest weakness. Cesar has lost twice as a pro in addition to this TUF loss, all by finish. The opening fight has ended inside the distance in 8 of the last 9 shows, that is pretty solid. I like him here because he should finish and no one will be backing him. Big points early at a cheap price.
1. Matt Brown -259
2. Jorge Masvidal -210
3. Rose Namajunas -205
4. Robbie Lawler -142
5. Wilson Reis -290
6. Michael Graves -211
7. Nikita Krylov -175
8. Erik Perez -125
9. Anthony Hamilton -125
10. Damien Brown -112
11. Ryan Benoit +115
1. Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +145
2. Ryan Benoit +115
3. Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision +105
4. Damien Brown -112
5. Erik Perez -125
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Hector Sandoval +269: The events surrounding this fight could be similar to the post-title fight letdown Reis has gone from the co-main event for a title fight to facing a newcomer on the prelims. That can really mess with your focus and if Reis doesn’t come in prepare, Sandoval has the type of power to test a chin that has been jacked before. Small hedge bet here.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +145
Lawler has won 20 of his 27 victories by knockout, but just 2 of his last 5. That can be expected when you are consistently fighting at the top of the ranks. Woodley has been knocked out just once, which isn’t much, but it tells us that it isn’t impossible. He lacks the cardio if this fight goes deep to hold up against Robbie’s second surge. Lawler will push him early and that could lead to a knockout. If it doesn’t, look for Robbie to make a second have charge for the knockout against a much slower and worn down opponent. I considered playin the fight not going the distance, but the odds weren’t there- I’m sticking with the champ.
Rose Namajunas to Win by Decision +145
Rose has finished all but one of her opponents both as a pro and during her 3 fights on TUF, but she is coming off the first decision win of her career. She took a step up against Torres and it was a much more competitive fight than what we have seen with Namajunas. KK is a strong fighter and this bout is going to be closer than the line suggests. If Rose can get KK’s back she could certainly get the finish, but I think we see a hotly contested fight where Karolina maintains a strong defensive front but Namajunas does more and takes a decision.
Matt Brown to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -115
I don’t see this fight going the distance and I don’t see Ellenberger winning. The Under 1.5 is set at -130 on some sites, which isn’t encouraging for Jake. The submission prop pays very well, but I just don’t see Ellenberger in a position to be submitted short of getting knocked down and Matt grabbing his neck instead of hammering away. I am expecting that Brown will simply overwhelm him along the cage until he drops or the official steps in.
Nikita Krylov/Ed Herman
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision +105
Jorge has Pearson badly out-gunned here, my biggest concern is whether or not he finishes him. Ross’s chin is beatable and Masvidal has power, but he tends to sit back at times which makes him less dangerous. I expect to see Masvidal using his wrestling here to grind the fight down. He has submission skills, but just 2 on his record. Pearson has been tapped twice, but much earlier in his career. Look for Masvidal to eat up time behind his jab and from top position.
Anthony Hamilton/Damian Grabowski Total Rounds Over 1.5 -129
Heavyweights are known for their short fights, but I like the Over here. Hamilton has 7 decisions on his record and over 50% of his fights have gone over 1.5 rounds. Grabowski only has 4 decisions on record, but he has seen a marked increase in fight time with 8 of his last 13 fights hitting the Over 1.5 mark compared to just 1 of his first 10 fight. Both fighters are known for clinch heavy grinding attacks and while they have a combined 6 losses by stoppages, this fight will make it into the 2nd half.
Ryan Benoit/Fredy Serrano
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Cesar Arzamendia/Damien Brown
See the Betting Scenario Section.