UFC 200 Bet Pack

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Diego Sanchez +100 
Selection 2: Frankie Edgar -112  
Selection 3: Johny Hendricks +110 
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Price: +695 Bet: 10 units
Payout: 69.50 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Cat Zingano -152 
Selection 2: Mark Hunt -143 
Selection 3: Jim Miller -227 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Miesha Tate to Win inside the Distance -114 
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Price: +658  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 52.6 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Anderson Silva +350 
Selection 2: Johny Hendricks/Kelvin Gastelum Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 
Selection 3: Cain Velasquez to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Mark Hunt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -130 
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Price: +4199  x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 251.95 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Jim Miller/ Takanori Gomi Total Rounds Under 2.5 +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Diego Sanchez +100 
Selection 3: Frankie Edgar/Jose Aldo Total Rounds Under 4.5 +100 
Selection 4: Cat Zingano -152 
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Price: +1425  x Bet: 7 units 
Payout: 99.77 units

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:  Johny Hendricks +110 
Selection 2: Raphael Assuncao/TJ Dillashaw Total Rounds Under 2.5 +190 
Selection 3: Miesha Tate to Win inside the Distance -114  
Selection 4: Mark Hunt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -130 
Selection 5: Gegard Mousasi/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 2.5 +105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +4046  x Bet: 6 units 
Payout: 242.78 units

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Mark Hunt $10400 
Fighter 2: Frankie Edgar $9900 
Fighter 3: Jose Aldo $9500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Johny Hendricks $10100 
Fighter 5: Diego Sanchez $9700 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Overdrive
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Fighter 1: Miesha Tate $10700 
Fighter 2: Frankie Edgar $9900 
Fighter 3: Cat Zingano $10500 
Fighter 4: Anderson Silva $8400 
Fighter 5: Gegard Mousasi $10300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 
 
 
 

 

Brock Lesnar +156 vs Mark Hunt -145 

The new main event is set and while it isn’t what we had, this card still has a tonne of star power. Simply put, I can’t see Brock returning to action after 5 years and defeating a fighter that has fought 9-times since his last appearence. Short of one scenario. If Brock can catch Hunt with an early takedown he has the size, skills, and power to both keep him on the mat and do serious damage. Brock could stop or exhaust Hunt in the opening round which will make future takedowns easier to land. I don’t know if the fight is going to be 3 or 5 rounds, but I doubt it matters. Unless Lesnar has found away to overcome his fear of getting punch in the face while in practice, he won’t fair well against Hunt. Hunt has massive power and the threat of the knockout will keep Lesnar from driving forward on his takedowns. Watch for that massive uppercut. I’ve got Hunt in my Silver parlay here and I will be looking at a Prop as well.

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At $10400, Hunt is a great option to build your Fantasy team around. He won’t provide big unique points, but with so many massive favourites on this card we have to save money where we can. We are all aware of his knockout numbers so no need to post those here. I don’t expect to see big volume and honestly I don’t anticipate a KO win. I expect to see Lesnar shell up after getting hit with a couple of strikes and Hunt landing a few more strikes to force the ref to step in. Team Kamikaze.

Miesha Tate -240 vs Amanda Nunes +225 

Tate is very durable and has a history of rallying after slow starts- Holm, McMann, and Kenzie are perfect examples of that scenario. Nunes starts like a firecracker, but has a reputation for fading- Zingano, Davis, and to a lesser extent, Shevchenko followed this trend. They fit together like a pair of puzzle pieces. For us, Tate has to survive the opening round and then she will take over in round 2 and beyond. Nunes has fight ending potential, but her window to win the fight closes quickly. If she paces herself in an attempt to conserve energy, Miesha will outwork her. I’m not a fan of Nunes being on her back. Her shoulders sit pretty flat on the mat and I don’t trust her ability to get out from under Tate once put there. Big title defense for Tate and with only 11 fights (as of right now) and a couple of big lines- I’ve got Tate in my Silver parlay.

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I also have Tate on team Overdrive. With takedowns and top position strikes over a 5 round fight she will pile up the points. If she is able to TKO or sub Nunes somewhere between rounds 2 and 5 that will also produce a lot of points. At $10700 she is costly, but that should deter people from investing in her at a high rate. I am anticipating that people will stay away from this fight because they are women and instead opted to look for male fighters with a higher pension for finishing.

Daniel Cormier -500 vs Anderson Silva +350 

Update- After watching the weigh-ins and looking at DC and Anderson, I flipped my play (unposted as of right now) to Anderson Silva. Look for Silva to crack Cormier at distance and hurt him in the clinch. Cormier is entering this fight with a tonne of distractions and I think that gets the better of him. Silva is loose. He has nothing to lose and will fight accordingly. Look for Silva to rise to the occasion and pull off a big upset, most likely stopping Cormier. With so many outside factors involved in this fight, this won’t be a big play, Bronze Parlay leg.

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At $8400, I will be backing Silva in place of Assuncao. Silva’s ability to do damage at distance and in the clinch will be the difference maker.

 

Frankie Edgar -112 vs Jose Aldo +100 

Moving right along to another big title fight. Edgar has looked like a man on a mission, motivated to get a title. Aldo has been fading- taking massive damage in the Mendes fight and then knocked out against McGregor. He is hearing footsteps after dominating the division for so long. Edgar fought Aldo in his first trip to 145 pounds which can’t have been easy. He has since accumulated a lot of cage time against solid competition and looks much more suited to fight at 145. Aldo didn’t show near the movement or speed against Mendes that made him effective against Edgar. If he has slipped at all, Frankie will exploit it. Look for a fairly competitive opening round, but Frankie will find much more success than last time. He will start to push the pace and I can see him overwhelming Aldo and either landing that one big shot or breaking him with a constant barrage. I have Edgar in my Gold play.

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Frankie will be all over my Fantasy plays. He is the key to success this weekend, but Aldo will play a role as well. This is a 5 round fight and if they go the distance both men will land decent volume and score points. Edgar will be in both lineups. At $9900, he is one of the few sub $10000 I have faith in to take home a victory. He opens up a little extra cash to spend elsewhere in both lineups. Aldo will also play a role here. With Team Kamikaze I am employing a strategy of taking 2 fighters that are set for a 5 round fight. We have to pick an underdog or two with so many heavy favourites. Getting a fighter of this quality at $9500 is a great way to free up funds for your other spots. If Aldo pulls off the win by decision, Edgar will still score some solid points for you as well. It is certainly a risk, but I feel this strategy is far better than taking a flyer on a longshot underdog.

Cain Velasquez -283 vs Travis Browne +252 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am going to pass on this fight. I think Cain wins this bout in most scenarios short of getting caught with some significant while closing the distance. I will take a look at a prop here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No Play here either. Cain can put up some big volume and will probably pick up a stoppage win before the final bell but at $11200, he will cripple your lineup. Additionally, a lot of people will look at the HW make every effort to get him on their team because of what he brings to the table. Let’s hope that is the case and they are forced to take some long shots as a result.

Cat Zingano -152 vs Julianna Pena +158 

I was leaning heavily towards the dog here. That was until I rewatched Pena’s last fight. Simply put, she looked sloppy. Her gameplan was centered 100% around getting the fight to the mat at all costs and she made some major mistakes. Eye isn’t known for her grappling skills and she was still able to find success on the mat against Pena in spurts. Zingano is much more refined on the mat and will exploit the openings that Pena leaves here. I also expect to see Cat have a lot of success on the feet, landing counters at Pena rushes forward and busting her up in the clinch. Eye did a great job of stalling Pena out in the clinch, but didn’t do any damage. Cat will. Look for the stoppage in a high paced fight. Still, the layoff and title fight letdown have me dropping her down to the Silver section- but a strong play nonetheless.

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Following a similar line of thought as Tate, people won’t be looking for a stoppage win in a WMMA fight. Cat has finished all of her wins but one and I feel she will have plenty of opportunities to put Pena away.  Cat carries a hefty pace and knows how to finish. She is an ideal play at $10500 against a fighter that is aggressive but defensively flawed. Team Overdrive.

Johny Hendricks +115 vs Kelvin Gastelum -110 

Another massive Prelim fight and I feel we are getting a massive discount here with Hendricks. Gastelum uses blunt aggression against lower level opponents and that will work just fine. Magny showed that Gastelum can be dominated on the mat and Hendricks is more than capable of recreating that scenario. Hendricks is a much better combination striker and has more power. Kelvin doesn’t set up his strikes nearly as well, throwing a lot of singles, and he sits at a range where Johny will be ablet to tag him. Magny also landed some big shots and so did Story, hurting Kelvin. If Hendricks connects he could easily put him out. Hendricks didn’t look good against Thompson and faded in a 5 rounder against Lawler- this fight is neither of those. Gold Parlay.

Update- After the weigh-ins the line has shifted and now Johny is the dog. I like it. He did miss weight and looked bad, but I remember him looking similar against Lawler. At the second “weigh-in” later in the day, Hendricks already looked better and 24 hours+ will do wonders/  I will take advantage of the change and stick with Hendricks.

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Hendrick’s volume was pretty impressive against Lawler and his takedowns are capable of compiling big points. If this fight goes the distance, Hendricks will produce. I don’t see it going a full 3 rounds with Johny landing a bomb and scoring his first knockout in quite a while. At $10100, we are getting a massive bargain. I expect most people will overlook this fight based on Hendrick’s lack of recent knockouts and the fact that he isn’t perceived as a high volume striker. Team Kamikaze.

Raphael Assuncao +342 vs TJ Dillashaw -372 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. I backed Assuncao in the first fight and it paid off. There will be a rematch prop on this fight.

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TJ is an expensive option and I can’t work him into either of my lineups. Assuncao does make the cut on Team Overdrive. Like Aldo, we have to take a couple of fighters we picked against. Assuncao at $8300 is a playable option for a few reasons. He does already have a win over TJ which is huge for a fighter’s confidence. Additionally, his volume deceiving. He lands at a much better clip than most people realize and for the most part I expect him to be overlooked. As one of the cheapest plays on the card, he opens up funds for the other 4 picks. Keep in mind TJ is coming off a title fight loss so this bout is a step back in significance for him while Assuncao sees a win here as his key to a title shot. That can play a role.

Update- I will be replacing Assuncao with Anderson Silva on Team Overdrive.

Enrique Marin +284 vs Sage Northcutt -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope nothing here. I expect Sage to win, but the risk/reward is certainly not there.

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See above.

Diego Sanchez +100 vs Joe Lauzon -112 

Diego Sanchez is never going to a win a title in the UFC, but he is going to come to fight night in and night out. I love him in this fight. Huge opportunity to cash in. I originally had Hunt in my Gold parlay and Sanchez in the Silver section, but I made the switch. I used a lot of stats when picking Dunham over Lauzon and I am doing it again here. Sanchez is notorious for coming forward aggressively and walking his opponents down, but landing less strikes. If you look at the stats, in his last 4 wins he kept within an average of 17 significant strikes. Conversely, in his 4 losses he averages -34 striking exchange rate. That means Lauzon is going to need to go above and beyond his normal output to beat Sanchez. He is 2-6 in fights where his opponent surpasses the 50 significant strikes and if Sanchez can land close to that number with his differential stats- Joe is in trouble. The other area is Joe’s TDs. He is 0-6 when not landing at least 1 completion Sanchez is not easy to take down and show against Miller that his strength/ size at LW is a lot to deal with. On top of all of that Lauzon is known for slowing down in longer fights and Diego gets stronger. Joe could negate all of this by subbing Sanchez quick, but Diego isn’t easy to finish. I like Diego here in my Gold parlay.

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I have Sanchez in my Kamikaze lineup. At $9700 he is cheap. His volume is still a scoring factor and that will be magnified against Lauzon who becomes more hittable as the fight goes. Also, look for Sanchez to pick up some takedowns throughout the fight to help wear down Lauzon, especially in the 2nd half of the fight. Sanchez isn’t a finisher which will probably push fighters away and in a lot of the Fantasy reports people are jumping on Lauzon because of his high submission totals- that is fine with me. Play Sanchez

Gegard Mousasi -259 vs Thiago Santos +231 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here. The line is just a little too high for me.

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Mousasi is my final Team Overdrive member. I fully expect him to come out and score takedowns from the onset. We saw this against OSP, Philippou, and Hall and we will see it again here. He is aggressive on the mat and will look for subs, if he can’t finish, over a 3 round fight it will be a point producer. If they stay on the feet, Mousasi’s boxing is going to the be the story. While Santos is a nasty kick, is range boxing isn’t great. Mousasi has power and will be able to counter Santos when he starts to come forward. If Gegard gets aggressive, I don’t like the holes that Thiago opens up in his guard when under pressure. Mousasi can finish on the mat or the feet and can score points in both areas over a decision. At $10300, he is a solid final play.

Jim Miller -227 vs Takanori Gomi +225 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The opening fight of the night and probably the last shot for one of these two fighters. Miller stumbled against Diego, but I think Gomi is just done. His chin is shaky and with his already glaring defensive grappling issue are still there. Short of knocking out Miller, he is going to struggle to win this fight. His volume won’t hold up and if/when Jim gets him on the mat he will be at a major deficit against an aggressive submission grappler. Miller isn’t the sexiest pick alive, but I’ve got him as my 4th leg in the Silver parlay.

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I considered playing Jim in one of my Lineups as a finish is a real possibility, but at $10800 he is too expensive for my blood.

 

1. Gegard Mousasi -259 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Diego Sanchez +100 

3. Johny Hendricks +110 

4. Miesha Tate -240 

5. Frankie Edgar -112 

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6. Cain Velasquez -283 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. TJ Dillashaw -372 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Mark Hunt -143 

9. Cat Zingano -152 

10. Jim Miller -227 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Sage Northcutt -278 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Anderson Silva +350 

 

1. Diego Sanchez +100 

2. Johny Hendricks +110 

3. Frankie Edgar -112 

4. Cat Zingano -152 

5. Anderson Silva +350 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

 

Mark Hunt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -130 

Really? I need to write something here? Ok…6 of Hunt’s 7 UFC wins have come by knockout, dating back to his horribly sloppy altitude impacted decision win over Rothwell in 2011. He also has a draw against Bigfoot, but he has since avenged that loss. Look for Hunt to blast Lesnar with an uppercut as he attempts to shoot in for a takedown. This line only offers a moderate improvement on the side bet, but it is enough to warrant a bet here.

Miesha Tate to Win inside the Distance -114 

I was looking at making a play on Tate by submission, but I could see the pure exhaustion on Nunes’s part not allowing her to defend strikes on the mat and the ref having to step in. Nunes has had issues going a full 3 rounds, so I struggle to see her doing much better over 5 rounds. Tate will push her early, unlike Nunes’s last opponent, and that will play dividends later in the fight. I am giving some serious consideration to replacing the side bet on Tate with this play in my Silver section.

Frankie Edgar/Jose Aldo 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Cain Velasquez to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Velasquez has absolutely worn out his opponents in the past with his volume striking and wrestling. Browne’s chin far from made of concrete and his defensive wrestling is a little hit and miss. Browne won’t fair well off his back if Cain starts to unload and Travis long limbs won’t be an asset when Cain gets on the inside with his short range striking attack. Velasquez will be motivated to once again get his title back and Browne his first step in that direction. Conversely, Browne has struggled in these higher profile fights and if he isn’t letter-perfect today Cain will run him over.

Cat Zingano/ Julianna Pena 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Johny Hendricks/Kelvin Gastelum Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 

Both guys are capable finishers which is why I opted to go against the urge to play Hendricks by knockout.  I still think that Johny will pick up a stoppage. Hendrick’s last knockout came over Kampmann at UFC 154- since that fight he has faced GSP, Condit, Brown, Lawler x2 and, Thompson. That collection of elite WWs have been knocked out a total of  2-times  in a combined 122 fights. Gastelum has never been knocked out before, but he has been rocked in recent bouts and is the ideal candidate for Johny to land a bomb on. Why? Well, he will stand and trade at a distance that Henricks is comfortable with. He is willing to take a shot to land one, and he lacks the wrestling to take Johny down if things aren’t going his way. Hendricks hurts Gastelum during an exchange and swarms him for the finish. Or, we do have Hendricks coming off a knockout loss and that can play havoc with a fighter’s confidence. The weightcutting issues experienced by Hendricks could also impact his durability. Either way, I like this bout to end early.

Raphael Assuncao/TJ Dillashaw 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Gegard Mousasi/Thiago Santos 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jim Miller/Takanori Gomi 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White

 

 

 

One Response to “UFC 200 Bet Pack”

  1. Bill says:

    Have you seen Daniel Cormier is back in?

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