UFC 199: Rockhold vs Bisping 2- ‘Winners and Losers’
UFC 200 might be the numerical big show, but UFC 199 was one of the best pay-per-previews in recent memory. It opened with a Fight of the Night war that would make the Korean Zombie proud and closed with Michael ‘The Count’ Bisping finally capturing the UFC title that seemed forever out of reach. My predictions were a lackluster 6-6-1 and the Bet Pack results can be seen below. Let’s take a look at the Winners and Losers from Saturday night along with a couple of fighters that are still sitting on the fence.
The New Middleweight champion belongs right at the top of the list. On just 17-days notice, he walked into a title fight against an opponent that soundly defeated him in their previous bout and knocked him out in the opening round. It was clear the Rockhold felt ‘The Count’ was a non-threat and he paid for it. This moment was a long time in the making, but Michael Bisping is now a UFC champion.Dominick Cruz
It is over, the rivalry is done, and Dominick Cruz is the victor. The returning Bantamweight champion put on a complete effort and dominated the former WEC Featherweight champion from start to finish. It is hard to believe that Cruz is just 31 and if he can stay healthy he still has a number of years ahead of him at the top of the sport. There is a group of new rising fighters looking to challenge for the title and a dominant Flyweight champion that will be in search for a rematch down the road. Exciting times at 135.Ricardo Lamas
It might be hard to understand why Lamas is here and Holloway is listed under a different heading. Lamas didn’t win, but he put on an absolute show. He had his shot at the title and lost, and he has been soundly defeated by a pair of top level opponents. Lamas most likely won’t contend again, but he still has a number of high profile bouts ahead of him.Dustin Poirier
Poirier is still undefeated at 155 pounds in the UFC and his stock is on the rise. I will be the first to admit that I assumed he would hit a wall once he got into the top 15, but he is still going strong. He is the first to knockout Green at Lightweight, something that other talented fighters couldn’t pull off. Poirier isn’t inline for a title shot yet, but that reality is much more plausible after UFC 199.Brian Ortega
Finishing Tavares, Brandao, and now Guida to start your UFC career (the NC withstanding) is an impressive launching point. He was ahead on the scorecards, but it was close, and while it is exciting to finish opponents in the third round while the decision is still in doubt- it can also be dangerous as he moves up the ranks.Beneil Dariush
What an impressive way to rebound from a disappointing loss. The emphatic and brutal knockout of James Vick will help Dariush to shed the moniker of being just a grappler.Jessica Andrade
Welcome to the first legit fight of your career Jessica Andrade! Andrade has been fighting 20-pounds above her appropriate weight-class and it was clear that she is far more suited to compete at Strawweight. Her power translated exceptionally well and she successfully maintained her pace for 8 solid minutes. The win over Penne vaults her directly into title contention. Tecia Torres is coming off a loss, but that would be an excellent next test for Andrade.Polo Reyes & Dong Hyun Kim
With all the big names on the card, opening the show and grabbing the Fight of the Night bonus is impressive. Both guys will keep their spot on the roster and will fill out future events in their geographic regions.The Fans
This was an event that could have stood alone on its merits. At the end of the night we were treated to a couple of big upsets, a number of absolute wars, and just a really solid event overall. The big fight announcements were simply the cherry on the top of the sundae. The return of Brock Lesnar at UFC 200 was a huge reveal and the UFC 202 main event reveal of Diaz/McGregor 2 was equally as exciting.
He clearly underestimated his opponent and paid for it with his consciousness and title. Unlike his predecessors, Rockhold was unable to defend his title once, and now finds himself back amongst the masses. It is plausible that he gets a rematch, but with Jacare, Chris Weidman, and even Yoel Romero all in contention, Luke might be required to win another fight before he gets a return engagement. Anderson Silva might also hop the line for a rematch based on his controversial loss to the now champion.Hector Lombard
He has now nearly finished his foe in the opening round of back to back bouts, only to get stopped in the aftermath. Lombard returned to the Middleweight division hoping to rejuvenate his UFC run and instead he might have ended it. At the current price tag that he commands, Hector has underperformed and may be out of a job as a result. A return to Bellator or move to WSOF or Rizin could be in his future.Bobby Green
It was a long layoff and a harsh return. His ‘”you can’t touch me” attitude got him knocked out. Bobby will hopefully recalibrate and return to action more focused and ready to go.Jessica Penne
Penne has been absolutely bludgeoned in her last 2-fights. The champ put a beating on her and Andrade continued the onslaught. Jessica struggles tremendously with pressure and doesn’t have the wrestling to drag an unwilling combatant to the mat. Her time at the top of the division is most likely over.Kevin Casey & Elvis Mutapcic
I lumped these two together, but honestly Mutapcic made out pretty decent here considering he should be 0-2 in the UFC. This fight played out exactly as I predicted. Casey won the first two rounds with his ground game and then had to hold on in the final frame. One judge gave him the appropriate 29-28 score. The second judge felt Mutapcic did enough late in round 2 to earn the round, which I have no qualms with. The final judge scored the first two rounds for Casey, but inexplicably game Mutapcic a 10-8 in the final frame to create the split draw scenario. At no point did Mutapcic come close to finishing Casey and while he won the round, it was no 10-8. Casey was the true loser here.
Time Will Tell
Despite the victories leading up to this rematch, it was evident that Urijah was barely holding on to his spot at the top of the division. As the early action of the fight played out it became evident that, short of miracle knockout or submission, Faber would be 0-4 in UFC title fights by the end of the night.
Faber could opt to stay in the UFC and serve as a gatekeeper to the elite level or he could elect to walk away from a sport that he has been very successful in. If he sticks around, I trend him towards the loser category for not acknowledging where he stands at this point in his career. If he goes, then he is more of a winner for everything he has accomplished and then knowing when to quit.
The only fight I would like to see if he does stay, is a bout with former stable-mate TJ Dillashaw. Regardless of the outcome of his UFC 200 foray, Faber could give TJ the rub with a victory over his former mentor or ‘The California Kid’ could ride off into the sunset with the biggest win of his UFC career.Max Holloway
Yes it was a fantastic performance and yes he has won 9 fights in a row. He is the only UFC fighter to have ever won 8 and now 9 consecutive bouts and not earn a title shot. He may have to push that number to 10 or sit out and wait for the current Featherweight championship scenario to play out. Edgar/Aldo will crown the interim-champ and once McGregor opts to return to the division he will face the winner from UFC 200. That puts Holloway out of action until early 2017 at best if his next fight is going to be for the belt. If he wants to stay active, Chad Mendes or the loser of Aldo/Edgar are the only fighters ranked close to Max that he hasn’t fought yet. Those are a pair of dangerous options that could prevent him from fighting for the title if he fails to get his hand raised once again. If he does win, it is all systems go for a shot at the strap.
*Update: If the rumours of an Aldo injury are true, I fully expect to see Max Holloway step in to face Frankie Edgar at UFC 200.Dan Henderson
What a way to go out! That is if ‘Hendo’ opts to use this victory as his swan song. Lombard has a decent enough profile that knocking him out and then retiring would be totally acceptable for a legend like Henderson. He seems a little undecided, as the rush of victory has him looking for another fight, but he narrowly avoided getting knocked out and that should be enough of a close call to say enough is enough. Time will tell.Final Thoughts
UFC 199 might be forgotten in the wake of all of the other recent happenings in the combat sports world and then the monumental UFC 200 that looms in the not too distant future. Regardless, the event was a huge success and set the standard for UFC cards to come. As I already mentioned, my predictions weren’t great, not even close. The aftermath of the Bet Pack can be seen below. We get a week to recharge and then the Octagon heads to Canada for UFC Fight Night 89.
Selection 1: Ricardo Lamas +284
Selection 2: Sean Strickland +128
Selection 3: Dong Hyun Kim +110
Price: +1739 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 104.32 units
Selection 1: Jessica Andrade +130
Selection 2: Kevin Casey +140
Selection 3: Hector Lombard to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -190
Price: +743 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 59.40 units
Selection 1: Cole Miller to Win by Submission +300
Selection 2: Kevin Casey/Elvis Mutapcic Total Rounds Over 2.5 +110
Selection 3: Luke Rockhold/Michael Bisping Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115
Selection 4: Dustin Poirier -200
Price: +2256 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 135.34 units
Selection 1: Dominick Cruz/Urijah Faber Total Rounds Under 4.5 +195
Selection 2: Jessica Andrade +130
Selection 3: Jonathan Wilson/Luiz Henrique da Silva Total Rounds Under 1.5 -132
Selection 4: Beneil Dariush -185
Price: +1737 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 121.6 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Ricardo Lamas $8600 Fighter 2: Brian Ortega $10900 Fighter 3: Beneil Dariush $10000 Fighter 4: Jonathan Wilson $10700 Fighter 5: Dong Hyun Kim $9300 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Dominick Cruz $11300 Fighter 2: Jessica Andrade $9200 Fighter 3: Cole Miller $10400 Fighter 4: Sean Strickland $9100 Fighter 5: Kevin Casey $9800 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Luke Rockhold -480 vs Michael Bisping +600
No play here, even more so now that Rockhold announced that he is dealing with an ACL injury. I expect him to retain his title, but at this price and with this news. No thanks. I’ll take a look at the prop and will have a play considering this is a rematch.
No Fantasy play here either. Most people will be jumping on Rockhold with the expectation of a quick finish. It could very well materialize, but he is going to cost a lot and the points that he gives you will be pretty common across the board. Pass.
Dominick Cruz -345 vs Urijah Faber +400
Similar situation here. I expect Cruz to win, but there is always the concern about an injury that will compromise his performance and the return is simply not there. Pass. I will look at the rematch prop though.
I will be playing Cruz on my Team Overdrive. A lot of people are going to shy away from this pick for 2 key reasons. 1) Cruz is known for going to decisions, which isn’t very popular with Fantasy players. 2) He costs a heck of a lot at $11300, which combined with #1 makes him undesirable. I feel otherwise. His lack of popularity will make his points more valuable and he will put up points in droves. Faber is very hittable and over 5 rounds look for Cruz to land between 90 and 120 significant strikes. His takedowns should be there as well, between 2 and 5. There is also a chance that we get a finish. Faber has slipped and not looked nearly as good in recent fights. We have seen time and time again, rematches from decision turn into quick finishes. Cruz will produce.
Max Holloway -302 vs Ricardo Lamas +284
Fantastic fight and Lamas is being fantastically undervalued. Holloway has looked very good of late and has drastically improved. Lamas has lost just 2 fights in recent memory, against arguably the 2 best fighters in the division not name McGregor. Holloway is a very good striker, but based on the numbers his offense isn’t nearly as potent when the threat of the takedown exist. Lamas is a good striker as well, and I see him as a better wrestler and overall better grappler than Max. If Holloway’s numbers aren’t there in the striking total, that opens the door for Ricardo to steal the decision by keeping it close on the feet and landing a couple of key takedowns. Lamas has had a lot of success as the underdog and I like him here with the money. Silver Play.
Lamas also has value as a Fantasy play. At just $8600, he opens up some extra cash to spend elsewhere. Additionally, people will be jumping in Holloway because of his reputation as a high volume striker. If Lamas pulls off the upset they will have invested a large portion of their bankroll for 25-30 points. For us, Lamas will most likely land between 50-60 strikes, grabbing 2-3 takedowns, and pick up the decision points. He isn’t the type that is likely to score you 100 points, but considering the negative swing that those backing Halloway will experience- it is worth the play. Team Kamikaze.
Dan Henderson +348 vs Hector Lombard -375
No Play here, I will look at the total instead.
Same thing here. Most people will jump on Lombard because of Hendo’s chin. Too popular a play.
Dustin Poirier -200 vs Bobby Green +186
I am a little disappointed where this line ended up/ is headed. Green will be a much sterner test of Poirier then this line suggests. Poirier has looked good at LW, but this is a step up from the level of competition he has been facing. Green has been out of action for a while, which certainly doesn’t bode well for him- but he has power and decent TDD. Additionally, he is a confident fighter and if he can find success early he will start to back Poirier up. Dustin is nearly the same fighter when he isn’t dictating the pace. There are some unknowns here; with the layoff for Green and the rise in quality of competition for Poirier. I’m tempted to leave him off altogether, but I might consider him for a Bronze leg and a Counter bet on Green isn’t the worst play either.
No Fantasy Play here.
Brian Ortega -265 vs Clay Guida +241
New vs old and as I stated in my prediction; there are 2 ways this goes. Based on what I have seen from Guida of late, this is Ortega’s fight to win. He is just too aggressive and too crafty for Clay to avoid getting caught for a full 15 minutes. If Guida opts to avoid the ground game, Ortega’s improving striking will be a big part of his success. Still, Clay relies so heavily on his wrestling that I fully expect him to shoot at some point and get caught. From a betting perspective, the price isn’t that great and when you look at Ortega’s last 2 stoppages- they came in the 3rd round once his opponent started to slow down. Clay normally doesn’t slow down, so if Brian is unable to catch him off his back, Guida could get a decision based on his top position. The more I look at this fight, the more I am leaning towards leaving a side bet off my card altogether.
I do have Ortega as part of Team Kamikaze. He knows how to finish which is always a big asset when looking for points. Additionally, he is an active fighter wherever the fight takes place. He will attack with his striking and once on the mat, he is very aggressive which can score points as well. His name isn’t as big as some, so the combination of his sub 50 points per fight and his near $11000 price tag will act as a deterrent to the average player. They are most likely to view Lombard, Holloway, or Poirier as better point producers in roughly the same price bracket. Big point potential and below average inclusion = solid fantasy play.
Beneil Dariush -185 vs James Vick +174
I was so angry at Dariush after the Chiesa loss. He was clearly in a bad spot once Chiesa got his back and he showed no urgency to get out of that position until it was too late. I wonder if he simply underestimated how good Chiesa’s back mount and RNC skills were. Moving on. Vick has shown significant improvements in almost all areas, with the exception of one key skill. His TDD is still an area of vulnerability. His aggression leads him to getting taken down a lot. He usually gets back to his feet, but that has been against much lesser skilled grapplers then Dariush. Once Beneil gets on top, he stays there. I expect something similar here. Look for Beneil to be motivated to get back in the win column after a pretty big loss. Dariush joins my Gold Parlay.
We are getting a pretty solid deal with Dariush costing you just $10000. I don’t see this fight being that close, unless Vick can keep it standing. Even then, Dariush has shown marked improvement in his striking and he should be able to score. He knows how to finish, 8 of 12 wins by stoppage, and his improved striking coupled with takedowns and advancing ability on the mat should produce some solid points in a decision win. He joins Team Kamikaze.
Jessica Penne -140 vs Jessica Andrade +130
I really like this play. Penne has flat out not impressed me in her UFC run. She struggled with the striking of Esparza in her TUF tournament loss and was totally outclassed by JJ. Even in her win over Markos she struggled at times and was lucky to get the nod. Aggression seems to be her undoing and that is what Andrade has in spades. The biggest concern is the weight cut. If the Brazilian has issues getting to 115 then I don’t expect her to last much longer then a round with Penne. I attribute her previous issues with cardio to a combination of carrying too much weight, grappling with larger women, and in her last fight, the late notice didn’t help either. Those shouldn’t be an issue against Penne. I expect Andrade to keep her backing tracking on the feet, land power, and bully her on the floor. If this wasn’t Andrade’s first cut to 115, she would be in my Gold parlay. The price probably wouldn’t be as good though. Silver parlay.
When you play a hefty favourite like Cruz, you have to have an additional play that will help absorb some of the extra cash you spent on him. I’m using 2 fighters to do this, one of them is Andrade. She offers us multiple avenues to put up points. She has finished 10 opponents out of her 13 wins, so she knows how to get the job done. Her strikes landed per minute sit at 5.66, which is huge. She landed 206 significant strikes against Sexton, and while she hasn’t come close in any other fight to that total she is still a high-octane striker. She landed 158 total strikes against Moras, but only 50 were deemed significant. Against smaller opposition at 115, the impact of her strikes should increase and the number of ‘significant’ strikes will also be on the rise. Her takedowns have also been a producer, with 13 over her 7 UFC fights, 7 over her last 2. The more ways to score the better. Team Overdrive
Cole Miller -180 vs Alex Caceres +165
This fight was originally set as Penn vs Siver, then Penn vs Miller, could you imagine the odds on Caceres winning this fight back then. Miller isn’t cracking the top of the division anytime soon, but he is a tough out nonetheless. On the mat is he a load to handle and his striking is improving. Miller is both taller and has a longer reach than Caceres, which will take away a key advantage that Alex usually thrives on. Caceres has found a lot of success in his wins out-grappling his opponent. I don’t see that happening here against Miller who is a far more capable grappler. Caceres’s lack of length/reach and grappling edge takes away 2 of his 3 key advantages. He should still have the cardio edge over Miller, but I don’t see him wearing Cole down enough to finish him or steal 2 rounds in a decision. Caceres has been subbed 5-times and takes chances on the mat that he won’t get away with here. I’ve got Miller in my Gold Play.
Miller joins Team Overdrive. When you consider his 15 wins by submission and Caceres’s 5 sub losses (63% of his defeats), there is a legit chance we see a finish here. Cole has 13 1st round finishes and is a very opportunistic grappler. His SLpM is also improving and could add a few points, but his inclusion hinges heavily on his finishing ability. He tends to slow after the first 2 rounds, so if a finish is coming I anticipate it being in the first half of the fight.
Sean Strickland +128 vs Tom Breese -135
This should be a solid fight, not one to be missed. Breese has looked good during his early UFC run, but we need to keep his level of competition in perspective. Nakamura exposed his shaky TDD, but didn’t have enough top position pressure to make it count. Strickland seems like to lack something on the feet, but that is not where I expect him to win this fight. I like the way Strickland uses half guard to control his opponent and he has very good back take with several RNC victories on his record. Breese used leg locks to get back to his feet against Nakamura. That move is much harder to pull off against an opponent in half guard. I also feel Strickland will be able to match Breese in strength where Nakamura couldn’t, when trying to remain on top. Further, Breese tends to expose his back when getting up. Nakamura jumped him once and got a strong position out of it, but I expect to see Strickland get his back and working towards a finish. Prior to his last fight, Breese didn’t have a tonne of experience beyond the 1st round and if Strickland pushes him, I expect to see him slow down. Strong Silver parlay leg.
With the takedowns, position advancement, and a possible submission finish that Strickland could pick up- I’ve got him on Team Overdrive. At $9100, he is the other part of the equation along with Andrade to make Cruz affordable. Strickland’s striking has seen a nice increase of his last 2-fights as well which adds another dimension to his scoring potential. You are getting a bargain here.
Jonathan Wilson -205 vs Luiz Henrique da Silva +196
This fight is pretty easy to leave off of your bet card, at least the side bet. Both guys are relatively untested and at 205, like HW, it only takes one punch to change the complexion of the fight. Wilson has the key advantages based on the footage I have seen, but it’s not worth the investment at this price. A prop bet is certainly a possibility.
At $10700, Wilson is expensive for a fighter with 1 UFC fight. I expect that fact will deter a lot of people from investing in him. Holloway, Poirier, and even Ortega are more enticing and well-known picks in the same price range. Wilson has power and I wasn’t impressed with how badly Da Silva got boxed up by Alcantara. If Wilson lands with that type of frequency I can’t image the Brazilian not going down. It is certainly a risk, but a little-known fighter with first round finishing potential is a must-have! He joins Team Kamikaze.
Kevin Casey +140 vs Elvis Mutapcic -140
This was a hard fight for me to pick. I am not a fan of Casey or his fighting style. That being said, I think this is the perfect match-up for his style. Mutapcic struggles with strong top position fighters and he doesn’t have great TDD to prevent him from being put in that position. Casey has a good ground game and is physically strong. His cardio isn’t great, but Mutapcic doesn’t carry the type of pace to wear him out. I expect to see Casey grinding his way to victory or possibly earning a stoppage on the floor. The Ultimate decider came when I looked at the DK numbers. Draft Kings has Casey as a slight favourite, costing a little more than Elvis to have on your team. It hasn’t been a 100% accurate, but more often than not when DK has a betting underdog as the favourite, they usually come through. Gold Parlay.
Casey rounds out my Team Overdrive lineup. He costs less than $1000 and he has a tonne of takedown potential. He is also a capable finisher, but just as important he is cheap and will be a play that most won’t be interested in.
Polo Reyes -106 vs Dong Hyun Kim +110
Both guys are just 1 fight into their UFC careers, but Kim has a tonne of experience outside of the Octagon and Reyes gained some valuable cage time on his season of TUF. That being said I see Kim as the more developed fighter. Most of Reyes’s fight involve him walking forward and brawling with his opponent. He has power, but he has also been hurt/knocked out using this style. Kim has some decent power and will exchange, but I expect him to use his clinch work and grappling skills to get the job done. Reyes comes forward aggressively, which opens him up to getting taken down and he has pretty weak TDD. I expect Kim to take advantages of this and dominate him on the mat. I’m leaning towards using him in a Silver parlay if I make 2 separate plays, if not he drops to the Bronze section.
Kim is the final entry on Team Kamikaze. He is very cheap at $9300 and he has a decent finishing record along with an opponent that is reckless, has been subbed twice as a pro, and was knocked out during his TUF run. I expect Kim to either pick up the finish or land 50-65 significant strikes and 3-4 takedowns. Most players will pass this fight over altogether, which makes Kim a producer of some rarely used points.
1. Dominick Cruz -345
2. Luke Rockhold -480
3. Hector Lombard -375
4. Beneil Dariush -185
5. Cole Miller -180
6. Dustin Poirier -200
7. Brian Ortega -265
8. Kevin Casey +140
9. Jessica Andrade +130
10. Jonathan Wilson -205
11. Dong Hyun Kim +110
12. Ricardo Lamas +284
13. Sean Strickland +128
1. Kevin Casey +140
2. Jessica Andrade +130
3. Ricardo Lamas +284
4. Sean Strickland +128
5. Dong Hyun Kim +110
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Bobby Green +186- I’m not a fan of his style and the long layoff isn’t great either, but he seems to win a lot of close fights that he isn’t expected to. I think the line should be a little closer, take the value.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
Luke Rockhold/Michael Bisping
See Betting Scenario Section.
Dominick Cruz/Urijah Faber
See Betting Scenario Section.
Hector Lombard to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -190
The logic behind this pick isn’t hard to understand. I considered playing the under to keep both fighter’s knockout power in play, but the value is in the Lombard win by knockout. Henderson doesn’t have the cardio to push Lombard without exhausting himself and his ability to land the H-Bomb will be drastically inhibited by Lombard’s surprising speed. It will probably transpire quickly with Lombard closing the gap and landing a quick combo on the inside. If not, and both fighters come out tentative we could see an entire round elapse before the leather starts flying. If that is the case, the prop bet is still in play compared to the Under which would be very much in danger.Brian Ortega/Clay Guida
See Betting Scenario Section.
Jessica Penne/Jessica Andrade Total Rounds Under 2.5 +205
Playing the Under in WMMA bouts is as risky as playing the Over in HW bouts. In their 33 combined fights, Penne and Andrade have only gone the distance 8 times. I really wonder about the mindset and durability of Penne after the beating she took against JJ. Andrade isn’t the type to hold back and I expect her to come out guns blazing looking for the finish. She has power in her hands and a nasty guillotine. Her aggression also works against her, as it has resulted in a couple of stoppage defeats either through exhaustion or positional mistakes. If the cut doesn’t go well, Penne could certainly capitalize and lock up a submission. Subs have accounted for both of Andrade’s last 2 defeats. Play the Under.
Cole Miller to Win by Submission +300
15 of Millers’s 21 wins have come by sub, including 7 of his last 8 victories. Conversely, Caceres has been tapped out 5-times, including in 2 of his 3 UFC Featherweight fights. Caceres relies heavily on a reckless grappling game to overwhelm his opponents. At Bantamweight, he was able to get away with his grappling skills, but against a skilled ground fighter like Cole that ‘Bruce Leeroy’ won’t be able to overwhelm with his size- Caceres can’t afford to make a mistake. Miller capitalizes on a mistake and locks up an RNC.
Jonathan Wilson/Luiz Henrique da Silva Total Rounds Under 1.5 -132
Wilson has finished 5 of his 7 pro bouts in the first round, 4 before 2-minute mark and 1 of the 2 fights to escape the opening round ended in the first minute of the second round. As an amateur he went the distance just once in 7 fight. Not to be outdone, Da Silva has finished all 11 of his wins- 10 by knockout. He has 8 first round finishes and just 1 fight that didn’t hit the under 1.5 mark. New LHWs are always a risk, but both have solid track records for finishing and will come out looking to make an impression. Play the Under.
Kevin Casey/Elvis Mutapcic
See Betting Scenario Section.
Polo Reyes/Dong Hyun Kim
See Betting Scenario Section.