UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit- ‘Welterweight War’
Sometimes fight fans will point at a match-up and say “this is a guarantee FOTY candidate, it can’t miss”. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. Robbie Lawler once again step into the UFC cage and was a part of another instant classic. Over 25 minutes, the reigning Welterweight champion and most recent challenger Carlos Condit gave and took the best they had to offer. The end result was a controversial decision in the eyes of some, just in the eyes of others UFC 195 also crowned a new #1 contender in the Heavyweight division. Start to finish there were only 5 finishes, but the bouts that went the distance were still quite entertaining. Let’s take a look at my winners and losers from Saturday night.Winners Stipe Miocic
A dominant win over a resurging former champion in Arlovski all but secure Stipe the next shot at the UFC Heavyweight title. After a couple of long drawn out wars, Stipe picked up the win quickly and in impressive fashion. His post-fight celebration and call out of Dana White was a nice touch. White later commented at the post-fight presser that Miocic would be indeed be fighting for the title up next. Unfortunately, nothing is written in stone. We have seen Dana go back on his word in the past and there is always the possibility of an injury or controversial finish between Werdum/Velasquez prolonging Miocic’s wait. But as of right now, he was the biggest winner on Saturday night.Robbie Lawler
Once again the new Welterweight champion went through an absolute war and emerged with his title in hand. Unfortunately for Robbie, there are a lot of people that didn’t agree with the decision. Myself included. Lawler’s monstrous last second mauling of the challenger was in final round showed the heart of the champion, but I felt Condit has done enough to be ahead on the scorecards 3-1 heading into the last frame. Condit is considering retirement, more on that later, but Robbie has openly called for a rematch which shows what kind of champion he is. Whether you agree or disagree with the decision, Robbie Lawler is an incredibly champion!Brian Ortega
For the second straight fight he took on a solid UFC veteran, both BJJ Black belts, and finished both of them. Ortega had a game plan; drag him into the deep water and drown him. He openly stated his intentions before the fight and executed his plan to perfection. Had he not and lost a decision on the scorecards we would be looking at him in an entirely different light. Ortega is young and a fun fighter to watch moving forward.Michael McDonald
Talk about a minimalistic approach to winning. ‘Mayday’ dropped the opening round and was on his way to losing the middle frame and a possible submission defeat before drastically turning the tables on Kanehara. The manner in which McDonald survived the arm triangle and countered seamlessly into the RNC for the victory was impressive. After the fight, McDonald pointed to his loss against Renan Barao via arm triangle and stated that he wished he had done more to survive. For a young fighter, with a lot of experience, this was a great point of development and a huge win as he looks to rebuild his run to the top.Dustin Poirier
Despite having been in the UFC longer and having faced better competition, Poirier was still the underdog against a talented but untested Joe Duffy. This was one of the best fights on the card and broke records for the biggest audience ever on Fight Pass. Duffy appeared to be getting the better of the early striking exchanges. Poirier had his moments, but more importantly made the correct adjustments and dominated the Irishman on the mat for the rest of the contest. Poirier had just cracked the top 15 at Lightweight and while Duffy was unranked, this win will preserve his spot and lead to bigger fights in 2016.Losers Carlos Condit
He isn’t a loser and shouldn’t be in this category based on his efforts. Short of stopping Lawler, which he almost did, Condit did all he could do to win this fight. Many people had him winning the fight three rounds to two, myself included. Some had him further ahead than that. Many have tried to discredit his efforts, pointing to the lack of damage resulting from his high volume output. While Lawler was landing bigger shots, Condit was the one pushing the action and engaging for larger portions of the fight. Regardless of what we think, Condit does not have the belt and is now contemplating walking away from the sport altogether. That would be a shame, but Carlos seems like the type that would only make such a drastic move if it was for the right reasons.
If I was a betting man… I see the UFC brass sitting down with Carlos, laying a blank cheque on the table, and setting up the rematch with Lawler. Robbie has already made his feelings clear on the subject. UFC 200 maybe? This fight did not get the accolades that other recent UFC main events did and that was a shame. I have to think the rematch will do much better at the gates. Carlos falls into this category because rightly or wrongly the belt left the cage with the other guy.Andrei Arlovksi
The good thing about Andrei’s situation is that he fights in the Heavyweight division. A division where you are only a win or two away from being right back in the title conversation. Nonetheless, that was a tough loss to swallow. With Stipe now next in line for a shot at the title, the bitter taste of defeat is amplified for the ‘Pitbull’ as he now knows how close he was. This was his first knockout loss since the Strikeforce Grand Prix back in 2011, but it will bring back the questions regarding his ability to take a punch. Arlovski can’t allow this loss to lead to a slump similar to the one that started with Fedor and had many calling for him to retire.Lorenz Larkin
The damage that Larkin did to Tumenov’s leg was brutal. The Russian will have a difficult time walking around for the next little while, but he got the victory. The strategy that Lorenz employed was good, but needed more to back it up. Despite the damage, Tumenov was still able to stay active and keep Larkin backing up with his boxing. Had the Strikeforce vet augment his low kicks with a more active boxing game of his own, it could have been enough to take the decision with compiled with the low kicks. Easier said than done against a dangerous opponent like Tumenov.Kyle Noke
After back to back wins, one a little questionable, Noke was trending upward. This loss put an abrupt end to that. The word on Morono was that his defensive wrestling was weak and an area that Noke should have try to exploit. He did not, or at least he didn’t do it well enough. This was a high risk, minimal reward type fight for the Aussie and he got the short end of the stick.The Judges
This was not a robbery. Not by any stretch of the imagination. There are solid arguments to give the nod to both men. No matter what side you are on, it certainly takes away from a fight when it is followed by so much controversy. Joe Rogan has called for the removal of the 10-point must system. ONE FC has gone to an unlimited scoring system. I don’t know what the right answer is, but a how about a sixth round? I certainly would not have hated it. I want a definitive winner. At the end of 5 rounds, if one fighter has not convince all three judges that they are the victor then a sudden death round 6 is required. Winner of that round, needing just 2 judges, is declared the winner. That probably won’t work, but if Condit and Lawler would have come out for another round I would be fired up as I assume most of you would have been as well.Finals Thoughts
There were a lot of empty seats and considering the show that the fighters put on, it was a shame. An even bigger shame was the Reebok sponsorship payouts. I know I sound like a broken record, but after a card like seeing those horrid sponsorship numbers is hard to digest. Too much emphasis is being put on the number of fights fought under the ZUFFA banner. How about creating something similar to the win bonus scenario where Reebok doubles up their contribution to the winning fighter. Still not good, but a little better.
I want to see Lawler/Condit 2. No doubt about it. I think a rematch would favour Carlos simply because Lawler usually fights the same way in all of his fights while the former WEC champ is more of a strategist. Miocic earned his shot and I hope he doesn’t get screwed. This was a nice way to start 2016 and hopefully is the start of big things.
At 6-6 I wasn’t happy with my predictions. Why should I be? Even had Condit won and I had finished 7-5, that is still pretty weak. The Bet Pack is posted below and includes a sizeable parlay that was busted in the title fight. The props were solid and the rest of the breakdowns can been seen below.
Up next it is the Bantamweight title on the line as the current champion TJ Dillashaw takes on the champ that never lost the strap in Dominick Cruz. This should be an epic fight! Oh yeah and Eddie Alvarez is fighting Anthony Pettis. We are 2 weeks out and the top two fights at UFN 82 include two of the most oft-injured fighters on the roster- nobody stare to hard at either of them.
Selection 1: Brian Ortega $1.55
Selection 2: Michinori Tanaka $1.87
Selection 3: Joe Duffy $1.57
Selection 4: Carlos Condit $1.95
Price: $8.88 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 71.04 units
Selection 1: Scott Holtzman $1.63
Selection 2: Edgar Garcia $2.47
Selection 3: McDonald/ Kanehara Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40
Selection 4: Tony Sims 1.77
Price: $17.10 x Bet: 6 units
Selection 1: Poirier/ Duffy Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.81
Selection 2: Michinori Tanaka $1.87
Selection 3: Carlos Condit $1.95
Selection 4: Trujillo/Sims Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30
Price: $15.18 x Bet: 7 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup #1 =================================================== Fighter 1: Kyle Noke $8500 Fighter 2: Michael McDOnald $11000 Fighter 3: Tony Sims $9400 Fighter 4: Albert Tumenov $10100 Fighter 5: Stipe Miocic $10500 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $500 =================================================== Lineup #2 =================================================== Fighter 1: Brian Ortega $10300 Fighter 2: Albert Tumenov $10100 Fighter 3: Carlos Condit $9600 Fighter 4: Edgar Garcia $9200 Fighter 5: Joe Duffy $10600 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $200
Sheldon Westcott $1.71 vs Edgar Garcia $2.47
This is a fight I am not really keen on betting too hard. What I do like about it is that you know what you get with Westcott. He comes out strong and either overwhelms his opponent until he puts them away or he fails and gasses hard. The unfortunate thing in this fight is that I can see both scenario having a decent likelyhood of playing out. Garcia is a vet and probably won’t be overwhelmed that easily, but as was the case against Urbina he could leave an opening for the Canadian to finish. Garcia is the more well-rounded fighter with the greater window for success. Westcott’s starts to close after the first round, possibly earlier. I do think the odds are misplaced and for that reason, Garcia is giving us value. I think he could be an option for either a Silver level single bet or a leg on a Bronze parlay. The total is clearly of interest here as well.
At $9200, Garcia is a playable Draftking’s option. He is a first round finisher and won’t cost you a lot, leaving some extra cash for a bigger addition higher up on the card. I am considering him as an option for my secondary team, as I have plan in place for my #1 lineup and already know where I will be saving some cash.
Joe Soto $2.05 vs Michinori Tanaka $1.87
Soto is a solid vet and has already been tested against some of the best the division has to offer. His chin is my first point of concern. He has been knocked out 3 times- all by violent KO. Tanaka isn’t a knockout artist by any stretch, he has never stopped anyone via strikes, but he does throw a strong right hand. His lateral movement can also frustrate opponents and force them into mistakes. Soto is a capable ground fighter, but I really like the way Tanaka is able to counter his way out of bad spots. He is excellent in a scramble and faired very well against a much larger Kang in his last fight. He will lose position at times, but the manner in which was able to counter out of bad spots was impressive. Between his striking style and pace, Joes’s chin, and Tanaka’s tenacity on the ground I see him doing enough to earn the decision win. He is coming off the first loss of his career which is a positive, but the layoff is a concern as well. I have him in my Silver parlay section with a very playable price.
At $9700, I don’t have him in either DK lineup. He has been to decision in 4 straight fights which isn’t a big point producer. He is an aggressive guard passer which could lead to some points on the mat, but we are looking for finishers and the numbers say otherwise here.
Dustin Poirier $2.71 vs Joe Duffy $1.57
Poirier not getting much love here. This fight has been a long time in the making and after getting cancelled at the last second there is an interesting scenario to look at. This isn’t a rematch, but it stacks up like one. At least in one key aspect. When I look at rematches, I see 2 fighters who have had multiple camps to prepare for their opponent. There is a certain level of familiarity. While these two have yet to actually step in the cage together, there has been a lot of prep on both sides. This can often lead to a quick finish as 1 fighter is able to capitalize on something they discovered and prep significantly for over a longer training camp. I like Poirier. If he wins, I won’t be shocked. Duffy, does not fit the mold of the type of fighter that he usually beats. Poirier beats opponents where he is either a better striker or grappler. Able to exploit at least one area of superiority. That won’t be the case here. Duffy is very well rounded and more importantly I don’t see him struggling with the aggression that ‘the Diamond’ usually employ to overwhelm his foe. Still Poirier is a very dangerous opponent and that will prevent me from backing him in my top parlay. He falls into the Silver section, which isn’t a bad thing. Watch for the value of Duffy to increase as fight time nears and the general public jumps on the more well-known fighter.
Duffy is a finisher, there is no denying that. But at $10600, I feel there are better options in this price range. He might find his way onto my second team for the purpose of diversity.
Scott Holtzman $1.63 vs Drew Dober $2.49
One guy has struggled to find any success at the UFC level against decent competition, with te exception of the Varner win. Conversely, you have another guy who has a win in the UFC, but did it over a fighter that clearly was out of his depth. Dober is durable and he is probably tired of hearing that, but it is not enough to win a fight at this level. Holtzman is far from an elite fighter as well and probably looked much better in his last fight based who he was fighting. I do like that he trains with an elite 155/170 pounder in Benson Henderson. I think Dober gets hit too much and doesn’t do enough either offensively or defensively with his grappling. Holtzman does hit hard and that will show up over the duration of the fight, especially if Dober’s defense has not improved. I would still like to see more out of Holtzman before I start putting down a big chunk of change. I have him fitting into my Bronze parlay package along with Edgar Garcia most likely.
I am going to pass on including ‘Hot Sauce’ in my fantasy lineup. His volume might be a positive, but a finish is going to be difficult. Not impossible, but at $10400 I have other options I prefer.
Justine Kish $1.43 vs Nina Ansaroff $3.25
I will be brutally honest with you. I have read a number of things about what Ansaroff is capable of and I have read a number of people predicting her to win this fight. She might get her hand raised, but I am not seeing the things other people are talking about. I see a fighter who picked up some knockouts against lower level competition, can throw a few flashy strikes, but isn’t consistent enough with her attack to back Kish off. Kish looked like a monster against Markos. She absolutely smashed her and did it with a variety of strikes. Both girls have been out of action for a while and Kish is coming off a couple of injuries and this is concerning. In addition to her striking variety and impact, her physical strength and ability to impose it in the clinch and work that into takedowns is big as well. Considering this is her debut, with a layoff, with questions about injuries, and past weight-cutting issues I don’t have her in my top selection. In fact, the more and more I look at it, I am leaning towards Kish as a ‘No Play’. Just too many issues.
For similar reasons she is way too expensive at $10700 for either of my DK lineups and considering fighters like Tumenov and Miocic are both cheaper- she doesn’t make the cut.
Kyle Noke $1.35 vs Alex Morono $3.74
This is an interesting fight, especially if you are a Fantasy MMA player- but we’ll get to that shortly. Noke isn’t Mr. Consistency by any stretch of the imagination, but he did look good against Sobotta. He kinda did enough against Webb as well, who is a pretty decent prospect. Morono is coming in on short notice. He is the smaller and less experienced man and he appears to have one glaring hole in his game. His striking is probably his best asset, but his defensive wrestling is his worst. He was dominated by Araujo on the floor for the entire fight until he hit the late knockout. I expect Greg Jackson & company to build a gameplan for Noke around this deficiency in Morono’s attack. That being said, I am not 100% sold on including Noke anywhere on my betting card. If he does make the cut it will be to keep a diversified portfolio only.
Where Noke plays an important role is in your Fantasy MMA lineup. When Noke was paired with Gastelum, he was the dog and cost you just $8500. They can’t change that price and as a result he still costs you just $8500 despite being a heavy favourite. He is capable of earning a stoppage and he could score a number of takedowns and pick points up that way. I have him on my top team simply because he could pick up anywhere from 60 to 100 points and at such a discount he frees up a tonne of cash for bigger investments. But, most other players will know that so he isn’t going offer you points that most others won’t get. For that reason, I only intend to use him on 1 team. If you have a lineup that doesn’t include him and he gets beat, that will do a lot of damage to a large portion of your tournament competitors. Keep that in mind.
Michael McDonald $1.20 vs Masanori Kanehara $5.75
Clearly we are not betting McDonald at this price with a 2+ year layoff. I will look at the total for sure. This fight can still be a contributor, but from a Fantasy standpoint. McDonald is going to cost you $11000 to employ in your lineup, but he is a must-have. He has violent power and doesn’t hold back when looking to deliver it. Kanehara has been knocked out 4 times and his style of striking leaves him open to getting cracked. Unless the layoff has really taken away from McDonald, I struggle to see how he doesn’t land a big bomb and put Kanehara down. I actually expect him to be better coming out of the break. Keep in mind, he was just 22 the last time we saw him. He is now the ripe old age of 24. Big things in 2016 for this guy if he gets it going right.
Abel Trujillo $2.23 vs Tony Sims $1.77
Very interesting line for this fight, especially considering Draftkings has Sims as the underdog. It might be worth noting that last show Nate Marquardt was the favourite on a couple of Fantasy sites despite being a heavy underdog across the board. I still like him here to get the job done. Trujillo can be a monster. But he can also be reckless, wild, and gas himself out before the end of the first round. In his first fight with Bowling he was getting cracked with some big shots when exchanging. Varner was finding a lot of success as well and so did Ferguson. Sims is a skilled boxer and he should be able to counter the aggression of Trujillo who tends to reach when striking. Trujillo could find some success with his wrestling, but the way he slows down I don’t see him being able to do it for a full 3 rounds. I like Sims here based on his knockout power, technical edge, and superior footwork. At this price and with the edges I see, Sims is going to be in my gold parlay.
I also have Sims in my #1 DK lineup. At just $9400, he is incredibly cheap and is capable of picking up a finish for sure. By combining him and Noke, who are both favourites in the betting world you still have a significant amount of cash to spend on your final 2 picks and the money saved allows you the budget to add the aforementioned McDonald.
Diego Brandao $2.75 vs Brian Ortega $1.55
This line surprised me a little. I have Ortega as the favourite, but I thought it would be closer. Brandao is a live dog here and if he fights his game I could see him taking home the victory. That being said, Ortega’s aggressive style is a great foil for what Diego is going to try and do. Brandao is going to try and hold back to avoid gassing out. Ortega is going to be able to come forward, push the pace, and force DB to work. Even if they hit the mat, he is going to be active off his back and Brandao will be exhaust himself defending everything that Ortega has to offer. Brandao is going to have put him away and if he can’t we could see something similar to the Brandao/Elkins fight. I think Ortega will show improvements in his striking and takes another big step here. I have him in my Silver parlay consider I feel the line should be a little closer and I will be looking at the total as well.
He also makes the cut on my #2 DK lineup. He could pull of the finish, but I am expecting him to score most of his points with positional control, takedowns, and volume. With 3 spots already filled on my #1 squad I still have the budget to pick him up, but I have 2 other picks that will cost us roughly the same amount, but are more likely to earn a quick finish!
Lorenz Larkin $3.26 vs Albert Tumenov $1.43
Oh boy am I excited about this fight. Larkin has looked really good at WW, but Tumenov is a horse of a different colour. The Russian is a violent striker and unlike Larkin’s last 2 opponents, he won’t let Lorenz set the pace. When Larkin is faced with an equally as aggressive an capable striker, as we saw when he face Costa- he backs up. He doesn’t let his hands go and he is far less effective as a result. Tumenov offers a number of KO capable weapons, but look for him to back Lorenz against the cage and let his hands good. He could catch him with a head kick, but I see something significant along the cage. I didn’t like the way Larkin responded to getting buzzed by Ponzinibbio and that shows up here in a bigger way. I have Tumenov in my #1 play and I will take a look at the total.
The Russian also makes the cut on my #1 DK squad. In fact, at $10100 I will be playing him on both of my teams. I feel he can stop this fight and do so potentially in the opening scoring us 100+ points in the process. I had him around $10600-10700 range. Sign him up!
Stipe Miocic $1.47 vs Andrei Arlovski $3.06
We have seen 2 different fighters since Arlovski returned to the UFC. Against Browne and Bigfoot he looked like an absolute killer. After he got them hurt he swarmed and put them away. Against Mir and Schaub he looked hesitant to engage and did just enough to get the decision, barely against Schaub. Stipe is a different sort of beast. He took it to JDS over a 5 round war and took the best the former champ could give back. He is more active with his boxing and his ability to mix in his takedowns makes him a far more effective fighter. Arlovski hasn’t been knocked out in a number of years/fights, but it was close against Browne. Stipe keeps his boxing crisp and tight, maintains constant pressure and eventually connects on something flush. If not, it’s a takedown, top pressure and GNP for the win. Miocic is in my top play for the night.
He also offers a tonne of potential for your DK lineup. He has finished 4 of his last 6 opponents and at $1050 his price is still manageable with the money saved on a couple of other fighters.
Robbie Lawler $1.95 vs Carlos Condit $1.95
It is too bad that this fight coming on the heels of the big action in December as I feel it is flying under the radar a little too much for my liking. Lawler has been an absolute killer, but the wars could be catching up to him. 10 rounds with Hendricks, 5 with Brown, and almost a full 5 with Rory. Even fighting just once in 2015, that is a lot of mileage. That actually might work in the favour of Condit who has been far less active of late. The biggest Achilles heel of Condit has been the wrestling of his opponents. That isn’t Lawler’s game. Lawler is a monster on the feet, but so is Condit. Condit is a more diversified striker and carries a heavier pace. He won’t slow down and that is something that Lawler has feasted on against Hendricks. Carlos also manages damage much better, something that lead Robbie to victory over Rory. I also feel that Carlos will have the strategical advantage. He won’t stand in front of Robbie like Rory did. It will be a steady diet of movement and kicks. Still with a fight like this and an opponent like this one, Carlos falls to my Silver selection. He is a beast, but this fight could really go either way. More scenarios favour Condit, but to count Robbie out is foolish.
Over a 5 round fight, Condit has the potential to put up some significant points and a finish isn’t out of the question. At $9600 he is on my secondary team. His inexpensive price opens up opportunities to spend money elsewhere.
1. Stipe Miocic $1.47
2. Michael McDonald $1.20
3. Albert Tumenov $1.43
4. Kyle Noke $1.35
5. Brian Ortega $1.55
6. Michinori Tanaka $1.87
7. Justine Kish $1.43
8. Tony Sims $1.77
9. Joe Duffy $1.57
10. Carlos Condit $1.95
11. Scott Holtzman $1.63
12. Edgar Garcia $2.47
1. Michinori Tanaka $1.87
2. Edgar Garcia $2.47
3. Carlos Condit $1.95
4. Tony Sims $1.77
5. Michael McDonald/ Masanori Kanehara Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Andrei Arlovski $3.06- He continues to defy the odds and if you get to this fight and are still rolling with your parlay(s) then hedge your bets and put a little cash down on the ‘Pitbull’
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Betting Pack Info.
Sheldon Westcott/Edgar Garcia
See Betting Scenario Section.
Joe Soto/Michinori Tanaka
See Betting Scenario Section.
Dustin Poirier/ Joe Duffy Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.81
I am a little surprised this line is set at 1.5 rounds. I understand that both have been running through their recent opposition, but this is a step up in competition for both guys. I talked about this fight having a similar characteristic to a rematch with the prolong prep time, so I won’t be shocked if there is a finish. If it was set at 2.5 rounds I would certainly take a stab at the Under, but 1.5 seems a little quick. Look for an early feeling out period on both side, with both men looking for openings. Each guy is more than capable of pulling off the finish, so don’t go all in on this one, but the Over is the play.
Justine Kish/Nina Ansaroff Total Rounds Under 2.5 $3.05
Kish put an absolute beating on Markos and the only thing that kept Justine from getting the stoppage was/is that Randa is so darn tough. When it comes down to it, either of these girls could score the stoppage. Both are capable on the feet and both have submission skills as well. Excluding a small group of fighters, WMMA bouts are usually pegged for decisions with regularity. Clearly I am on Kish here to get the stoppage, but Ansaroff has put the stamp on a number of opponents as well. At this price is is clearly worth the bet.
Michael McDonald/ Masanori Kanehara
See Betting Scenario Section.
Abel Trujillo/Tony Sims Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30
This card will be over in about 15 minutes if the Totals are close to correct as there are 7 fights set at 1.5 rounds, including this one. Trujillo fights like he has a plane to catch and usually, one way or another, he gets there on time. He has been apart of 9 fights that ended in the opening round and has only gone the distance in 6 of 20 outings. Not to be outdone, 9 of Sims fights, all wins, have lasted less than 5 minutes. He has only gone over the 1.5 round mark in 3 of 15 contests. Trujillo comes out strong and either smashes Sims or gets countered and knocked out himself. It will be something similar to the Varner/Trujillo throwdown. Play the Under.
Diego Brandao/Brian Ortega Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.67
Both guys are finishers for sure, but Ortega has gone the distance 4 times and 6 of 10 fights have the 3rd round. I have him overwhelming Brandao with pressure and pace, but that probably won’t start to kick in until the second half of the fight. While Brandao is fresh in the opening round of the fight he will be able to defend and potentially win the opening round. Ortega stated himself that his plan is to drag DB into the deep water and drown him. Brandao’s last 4 fights have all wrapped before the first 5 minutes, but prior to that he had gone the distance in 3 of 4. I like the Over here.
Stipe Miocic/ Andrei Arlovski Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.56
Usually, Heavies are on Auto-Under. Not here. Stipe is a calculated fighter who tries to avoid making mistakes by fighting within his means. He has gone a total of 10 rounds in his last 2 fights and gone well over the 1.5 mark in 7 of 9 UFC fights. Arlovski has either finished in the 1st or gone the distance. I see this fight fitting the form of the latter on his side. 12 of his 16 have gone into the second round for the former champ. This fight has the potential to be a stinker if they don’t open up. Play the Over.