UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor- ‘My Hateful 8’

I wrote this...

UFC 194 capped off a ridiculous 3 night run of UFC action that saw 2 of the 3 main events end in upsets, and a pair of titles change hands in the main event. We’ve already recapped the first 2 events, so we will shift our focus to UFC 194. Before we get to the in cage action, my predictions were solid I went 9-3, with a question split decision loss mixed in. Over the 3 shows I went 22-9. Consider how quickly I had to put my predictions together and how limited my prep time was I think that is a pretty solid record. Each of my Bet Packs cashed, the DraftKing’s lineups had a massive collective return, and I hit several upsets. Just to go over them one more time, I underdogs that I correctly picked were; Thiago Santos, Rose Namajunas, Warlley Alves, Yoel Romero, Luke Rockhold, and Conor McGregor who was the dog by fight time. That is a pretty decent list. Enough about me, stealing the title from an upcoming Tarantino flick- let’s take a look at my ‘Hateful 8’ takeaways from UFC 194.

8) Medeiros/Makdessi Decision

Backing Makdessi I felt he won the fight. Could he have done more? Absolutely. But I certainly feel that he did more overall then Medeiros. Yancy struggled to find his range and most of what did last was ineffective. The leg kicks and pressure of Makdessi were the big constant of the fight. Unfortunately, a lot of judges don’t value leg kicks on the same level as punches. It is a shame. The Canadian could have done more with his hands, especially his left jab. Either way, it was a poor decision.

7) Alves Guillotine

As a predictor, when a fight plays out almost to the letter of how you called it- it is a great feeling. Covington over-committed on his takedowns along the cage, and Alves snatched up his signature guillotine. I was impressed with the patience of Alves who had a couple of earlier chances to snatch the neck but didn’t want to end up on his back until he was certain. Once he felt he had his opponent in position it was just a manner of synching it up. In the battle of the undefeated, the Brazilian’s record remains unblemished.

6) Faber Done?

Urijah is clearly not done fighting and he got the win, but is he done at the top? Faber looked unsteady on his feet and was unable to gain the wrestling/grappling advantage over Frankie Saenz. His ability to dominate on the mat has been a signature of his career. It could also be a testament to how tough Saenz is. Faber hurt him in the middle round and appeared to empty the tank looking for the finish. Saenz hung around and remained competitive in the final round which against a tired Faber. He didn’t win, but he comes out of this fight in a better spot then before he entered. For Faber, he will most likely get another shot at the title against the winner of Dillashaw/Cruz. But, based on what he showed on this night he will remain winless in UFC title fights.

5) Blessed Opportunity?

A fighter that has yet to get his shot at UFC gold is Max Holloway. He is the only man to have gone the distance with the newly crowned Featherweight champion. Holloway defeated a very tough and dangerous opponent in Jeremy Stephens. He avoid his power and defended his wrestling, finding success with his own later in the fight. Max is rounding into a complete mixed martial artist, but I still think he needs one more win to earn himself a shot at the title. Ricardo Lamas versus Max Holloway for shot at the title after Frankie Edgar makes the most sense to me.

4) It is Maia Time for a Shot at the Title

He has already fought for the Middleweight strap and came up short. It is clear that Maia feels he is ready to fight for the title at 170 pounds. He dominated a very good grappler in Gunnar Nelson. He can beat anyone in the world that he is able to take down consistently. I really liked how he called out the inconsistency of the UFC rankings. There are a couple of guys ahead of Maia that he could face, but his ideal fight would be with #2 ranked Tyron Woodley. If he beats Woodley he puts himself into position for a shot at the title. If he doesn’t, then he probably wouldn’t beat the champion either. Nelson was my only incorrect pick on the main card.

3) Next at 185 pounds

It was a close fight. It was an odd fight at times. But, Yoel Romero got the nod and appears to have separated himself as the next in line to fight for the title. The biggest concern with Romero is his gas tank. He shutting down the offense of Jacare early and almost finished him. Unfortunately, he gas hard in the final round and found himself in a less than desirable position. The new Middleweight champion used a similar scenario to capture the title. If the fight does happen and Romero is unable to put away Rockhold early, it is hard to believe his cardio level will keep him in the fight for rounds 3-5.

2) Rock and a Hard Place

We have a new Middleweight champion. After Anderson Silva held the title for so long, Chris Weidman’s run at the top was noteworthy, but far shorter than anyone had expected. Rockhold’s kicks were brutal and his ability to counter the wrestling of Weidman was impressive. Weidman appeared to coming on in the third round as Rockhold was showing the effects of a grueling fight. Sensing something big, the former Champ threw an ill-advised wheel kick and wound up on his back as a result. Rockhold was unable to finish him before the bell, but the writing was on the wall once they hit the mat again in the fourth. With the beating that Weidman took, he should most likely take a break. Rockhold versus Romero should be on tap. If Rockhold gets through that and Weidman is still not ready to go, Luke way want to avenge his only UFC loss and face off with a certain Brazilian.

1) One and Done

The straight left of the newly minted Featherweight champion was all he needed to put down the former champ and the only champ the UFC’s Featherweight division had ever known. After all of the talk and build up for the biggest fight in the division’s history, we barely got back in our seats before a noticeably tense Jose Aldo launched himself forward at his Irish counterpart and then fell unconscious to the mat.

Aldo was the last holdout of a group of champions that included the likes of Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre. While many are suggesting a rematch is not warranted and I understand and agree with that point of view- we still have the Rousey factor to consider. Rousey wasn’t finished as quickly- but her loss was just as definitive. Yet, she has been granted her immediate rematch at the title. Either way, Aldo will eventually find himself back in the title picture. Cub Swanson, who Jose quickly dispatched back in the WEC could be an interesting return fight if he doesn’t get his instant rematch.

The new champ already has an onerous challenge set in front of him, even if Aldo isn’t his next fight. Frankie Edgar established himself as the next title challenger and Conor appears more than willing to accept that challenge. There was some talk that he could he headed to 155 after this fight, but when Dana White and company sit down to discuss the matter, I feel he will stay at 145 pounds. The Lightweight division is loaded with potential contenders. The Featherweight division needs Conor to keep the weightclass in the spotlight.

1) Final Thoughts

The card was pretty darn good top to bottom. There were a number of good storylines heading into the show and there are a number of new ones that have developed after the dust settled. Next weekend offers another big title fight with Donald Cerrone getting his long-awaited shot at the gold against a man in Rafael Dos Anjos who has already beaten him once. As mentioned in the intro the Bet Packs were a success, but I feel I could have done better. Too much reliance on Prop bets certainly impacted the bottom line. That needs to change. Take a look below at all of the details. Rest is for the unprepared, time to get ready for UFC Orlando.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Magomed Mustafaev $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Gunnar Nelson $2.15 
Selection 3: John Makdessi $1.65 
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Price: $4.83 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 38.64 units
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Yoel Romero $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Urijah Faber to Win by Submission $2.79 
Selection 3: Warlley Alves $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price:$13.16 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 92.12 units
 
 
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Parlay #1 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: Luke Rockhold $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Conor McGregor $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Yoel Romero $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $9.67 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 58.02 units
 
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Parlay #2 UPDATE
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Selection 1: Kevin Lee by Decision $1.90 
Selection 2: Tecia Torres by Decision $1.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Gunnar Nelson by Decision $3.70 
Selction 4: Max Holloway by Decision $2.00 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $24.19 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 145.14 units
 
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Parlay #3 UPDATE
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Selection 1: Kevin Lee by Decision $1.90 
Selection 2: Tecia Torres by Decision $1.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Gunnar Nelson by Decision $3.70  
Selction 4: Urijah Faber by Sub $2.79 
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Price: $33.74 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 202.44 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Court McGee $1.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Joe Proctor/ Magomed Mustafaev Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.22 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: DEMIAN MAIA/ GUNNAR NELSON Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Urijah Faber to Win by Submission $2.79
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Price: $15.27 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 106.89 units
 
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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Luke Rockhold $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Warlley Alves $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Gunnar Nelson $2.15 
Selection 4: John Makdessi $1.65 
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Price: $16.00 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 96 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Lineup #1
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Fighter 1: Yoel Romoero $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Urijah Faber $11000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Warlley Alves $9600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Magomed Mustafaev $10600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Gunnar Nelson $9300 
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Salary Remaining: $300
 
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Lineup #2
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Fighter 1: Conor McGregor $9900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Luke Rockhold $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: John Makdessi $10300 
Fighter 4: Urijah Faber $11000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Yoel Romero $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Salary Remaining: $200
 

 

Court McGee $1.59 vs Marcio Alexandre $2.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are certainly some concerns here for Court McGee. This length of a layoff is a massive point of aprehension for most fighters. Even more so when you consider how essential his ability to push the pace and outwork his opponent is to his succes. All that consider, I still like him here. Alexandre is simply not that good a fighter. He is 0-2 in the UFC and has done much in those 2 defeats. Prior to entering the organization he was wrecking some pretty low level opposition. I can’t pull the trigger on McGee in my top play, but he certainly will find his way into a play; Silver leg, Bronze at the least. At $10400, his volume could make him an option to put up points and a stoppage isn’t out of the question. He might be a player to look at if you get your top 4 set and don’t have a enough cash left to buy a high end favourite.

John Makdessi $1.65 vs Yancy Medeiros $2.50 

Makdessi is far from a complete fighter, but what he does offer should be good enough to carry him here. Technically he is the superior striker, his output is greater, and his defense is tighter. He will need to overcome the reach of Medeiros, but the manner in which the American has been routinely crack with big strikes if other fights suggest Makdessi will find his way through. Keep an eye on the body strikes, especially the turning side kick of the Canadian. Medeiros is vulnerable in that area and it could be the beginning of the end if Makdessi connects. Having watched a lot of film for this fight, I feel like Makdessi could work his way into my Gold Parlay. There are a number of solid plays on this card, but Makdessi pays well and is better in most areas compared to his opponent. He will cost you $10300 to add to your DK lineup which is reasonable and bordering on a bargain. The volume and potential for a knockout will both leave you with points. I have him on my secondary team.

Joe Proctor $3.57 vs Magomed Mustafaev $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Mustafaev is another highly touted prospect and this fight has the feeling of a lamb being lead to slaughter. Not based on skill, but based on that fact that the UFC is looking to build Mustafaev up and Proctor offers a solid name to add to his record. Proctor is crafty and will give him a fight. I just don’t see him winning this match beyond catching a sub. Magomed is better in all areas and even if Proctor has the submission game edge, the Russian’s superior wrestling will make up for it. At this price, he isn’t that appealing, but I still have him in consideration for one of my top plays. He could be a Gold parlay leg and can add a little push to the bottom line. I have him on my top DraftKings team. He only costs you $10600, which is good for a fighter that I feel is going to dominant in all areas of the fight. He is a proven finisher and the potential for that to happen again is high. Sign him up.

Tecia Torres $1.36 vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger $3.57 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I gave a lot of consideration to JJL here. I really liked the striking I saw in the footage of her last fight. She throws nice straight combinations in high volume onslaughts. If she can maintain that pace and her reach holds up I could see her stealing this fight. Torres will have the speed advantage and if her wrestling is on point that will serve as a nice counter if JJL really starts to open up. The lack of a full camp can make for a difficult fight if a high pace over 3-rounds is required to win. Based on my initial consideration of JJL I think I will pass on this fight possibly consider a counter bet on the underdog. For a decision machine, she is too expensive to add to my DK lineup.

Leonardo Santos $4.25 vs Kevin Lee $1.22 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lee is a massive favourite here and it make sense. Unless Santos can get him on the mat in an advantageous position, he is not winning this fight. Period. Still can’t play him. He could be an option for a secondary DK play, but he is pretty expensive and I don’t see him finish Santos by submission. He has zero knockouts. Post likely passing on this fight together.

Warlley Alves $2.05 vs Colby Covington $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A good fight featuring a pair of undefeated prospects. A rarity of late in the UFC. Everyone seems to gravitate to the wrestler and understandably so. Covington top game is good and has been the source of his success. I question whether he will be able to get in a position to use that top game. Alves has good TDD and his ability to lock up a lightning-fast guillotine will force Colby to be very cautious when dropping for a shot along the cage. Something he does frequently. Taleb attempted something similar, read as identical, against Alves and that was the end of the fight. Alves is the much better striker and that should also create issues for Covington. At distance, Alves is going to unload and going back to Colby’s 2nd UFC fight against Wagner Silva- he didn’t like being attack on the feet. He went into complete scramble mode when under fire. Alves has more weapons and more ways of winning this fight. Heck, he could score some takedowns of his own (catching kicks) and grind out a top position decision. Alves continues to climb in value for that reason I have him bordering on a Gold Parlay leg. I have considering a pair of Gold parlays for this card and he will be on one. Alves also makes the cut on my DK Team Kamikaze. As a dog he will only cost you $9600 and the finish potential is high. His volume will add up and the potential for takedowns and top control time. He is a must have on your roster.

Urijah Faber $1.18 vs Frankie Saenz $5.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Clearly we are passing on this fight, at least from a side perspective. Faber is better everywhere and while Saenz has balls to take the fight, he isn’t winning it. I will take a look at a prop bet here, but more importantly I plan to use him in my DK lineup. Faber costs you a seriously expensive $11000, but he is worth it. Faber has submitted far better grapplers then Saenz and Saenz will not feel good spending time on his back. Look for that RNC. A dominant win via finish will score.

Max Holloway $1.25 vs Jeremy Stephens $3.96 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Holloway has turned into a real talent, but his price is taking a massive nose dive. He is as low as $1.18 on some sites and it is because he is a perfect foil for what Stephens brings to the table. I addressed this already in my show, so I will tell you now that this is clearly a No Play. I will give some consideration for the total though. Max is one the higher costing favs on the card at $10900. I don’t have him on my team simply because I don’t see a finish in most scenarios involving this fight. He can put points on the board, but unless there is potential for a stoppage I won’t pay this much.

DEMIAN MAIA $1.91 vs GUNNAR NELSON $2.15 

This fight is being overshadowed by the big 3 at the top of the card, but it is still a great fight. Maia is elite on the ground. Top of the Food Chain. Gunnar is very good as well. If Buffer announced “Winner by submission…” tonight on behalf of either man- it will be a major accomplishment. The difference in this fight is going to be the striking of Nelson and the cardio of Maia. Maia absolutely dominated Rory on the mat, but could only do it for a round and was spent. Gunnar is good enough, at the least, to make Maia work hard for a round. If they stalemate on the mat and spend the majority of the action on the feet, Gunnar is the more productive striker and bigger threat. I like those odds. As mentioned already, I plan on making 2 Gold Parlays as I feel there are some solid odds on this card that must be capitalized on. Nelson will be in that section. Gunnar will only cost you $9300 to add to your team and after adding my first 4 picks he gives you the best chance to win of the remaining fighters that are available. A sub is unlikely, but do not discredit his ability to do damage with his hands. Add him to the ‘A’ squad.

RONALDO SOUZA $1.74 vs YOEL ROMERO $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

MMA Math is never a good way to pick fights. Neither is using the competetion faced by each man as your sole source of info. But, if you compared who Romero and Jacare have defeated in recent fights, it clearly favours the Cuban. Romero’s top 2 wins in recent action are Machida and Kennedy. Jacare’s big wins are Mousasi and Carmont/Okami. Additioanlly, Romero has wins over Tavares, Brunson, and Markes which far out way Souza defeat Camozzi x2, Herman, and even Okami/Carmont. Yes Jacare beat both Kennedy and Brunson, but they were better versions of themselves when Romero beat them. He also destroy a better Kennedy, who Jacare narrowly edged out. It is not nearly this cut and dry, but still worth noting. The advantges that I like here are the athletiscm and striking of Romero. The guy hits hard and he strikes in a manner that was giving Machida issues. Jacare has improved significantly, but will struggle to match Romero. The ability of the Cuban to move away from both strikes and TDA’s so fluidly is going to have Jacare coming of short on his attempts and stuck on the feet. Romero either lands something big or simply out-strikes Souza for the duration of the fight. I love Jacare at this price and hope he holds or goes up. He makes the cut like Nelson does in my top parlays. I also have him at $9200 on my team. There is a real chance for a finish here via knockout and by picking him up at such a low price I can buy a heavier fav like Faber. Sign him up!

CHRIS WEIDMAN $1.80 vs LUKE ROCKHOLD $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have seen the info graphics floating around that quote Rockhold regarding how he matches up with the champ. He talks about Weidman being clumsy and not being overly fast. I couldn’t agree more. Chris looks very ‘clunky’ in his striking technique and he isn’t that fast. He also slows down, which I don’t think Rockhold will. I love the back leg power kick that Rockhold throws. Machida had success with the same strike, from the same stance against Weidman. I see Rockhold throwing it more often and with greater impact. Even if he doesn’t stop Chris, it will hurt him and inhibit his future output. Rockhold is a good bet at this price, but I am not sure I have him in my top parlays. He is fighting an incredibly high-level opponent and that might be enough to push him to the Silver section. Luke is also an inexpensive buy on DK at just $9400. I don’t have him on my #1 team, but he is certainly going to be a central part of my second team.

CONOR MCGREGOR $1.91 vs JOSE ALDO $2.07 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I find it shocking that Aldo is the dog and simply based on what he has accomplished there is no doubt a counter bet makes sense. I was on Aldo early in the prediction process, but after rewatching all the film on both sides I switched. Aldo took a tonne of damage in the Mendes fight. He got absolutely battered. Compared to Mendes, McGregor is bigger, has a longer reach, more weapons at his disposal, and arguably hits harder. That could very well equate to Aldo getting knocked out if he gets hit like he did in the Mendes fight. The manner in which Aldo was complaining about eye pokes and headbutts suggests he might not handle taking that kind of damage overly well. Not many do, especially if you have limited how much you have been hit over your career. My biggest concern is the wrestling of Jose. He has beaten opponents before with takedowns and top control, I could see him doing it again. If Conor can make him work hard it could tire him out. I also think the Mendes fight will have been a point of focus for McGregor in camp and he will have tightened up his defensive wrestling. Look for that big left cross from the Irishman, especially as a counter to the leg kicks. I like Connor to win, but he certainly isn’t ranked ahead of Gunnar or Romero, nor Weidman. He makes the cut in the Silver section. Aldo will be on the counter bet list. Conor is a big point earner, but I think he fits better on my #2 squad along with Rockhold. Aldo is also a addition to your lineup that is worth playing. At just $9500, he is a fantastic option if you are down to the final spot on the team and your funds are limited.

 

1. Urijah Faber $1.18 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Kevin Lee $1.22 

3. Max Holloway $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Magomed Mustafaev $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Gunnar Nelson $2.15 

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6. John Makdessi $1.65  

7. Tecia Torres $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Yoel Romero $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Warlley Alves $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Luke Rockhold $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Court McGee $1.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Conor McGregor $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

*Even though plays like Alves, Rockhold, and McGregor fall close to the bottom of the list they are still plays I really like. The quality of their opponents, especially Rockhold and McGregor’s are the main reason they sit near the bottom.

1. Gunnar Nelson $2.15 

2. Yoel Romero $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Urijah Faber to Win by Submission $2.79 

4. Warlley Alves $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Luke Rockhold $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger $3.57- I think Torres takes this fight, but at this price she might be worth a small play. I like her style.

2. JOSE ALDO $2.07- Whenever you can get this much value on a fighter like Aldo you take it, back up a parlay with him added in and certainly throw down a single bet if you need McGregor to finish a parlay. Hedge your bet.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Court McGee/Marcio Alexandre

Check Betting Scenario Section.

John Makdessi/Yancy Medeiros  

Check Betting Scenario Section.

Joe Proctor/ Magomed Mustafaev Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.22 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

When I am working through the props’ section I usually set my own total for fights prior to looking at the actual number. If I am correct, start to look at stats to see which way I should lean or if my initial lean is founded. If the line is lower or higher than where I had it set, I usually will stick with my lean and find stats to back it up. The latter is the case for this fight. I had it set at 1.5, we are getting 2.5. Mustafaev  has stopped all 12 of his professional opponents- 8 knockouts and 4 submissions. 7 in the opening round and 5 in the middle frame. He hits hard and is a constant threat on the mat. Proctor has been finished twice, once in the UFC. He was submitted by a lesser grappler than his current opponent. Proctor is also capable of finishing, stopping 7 of 11. Of his 4 Octagon wins, 3 have come inside the distance, but only 2 under the 2.5 round total. Play the Under.

Tecia Torres/Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This isn’t a really flashy play, but it can add a little value to your parlay. Combing her pro, TUF, and amateur experience Torres has gone the distance in 14 straight fights. 14 of 16 to be exact. JJL has gone the distance in 6 of 7 pro bouts and in 4 of 6 amateur fights. The late notice is a little concerning as Torres could break her and stop her, but I’ll play the numbers and take the Over.

Warlley Alves/Colby Covington Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.37 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This play hinges a lot on Alves winning. If Covington wins it will most likely be by decision. Alves can finish with his guillotine, which I expect to see him try on a couple of occasions. Watch for Colby to close along the cage at which point Alves will counter his shot with the squeeze. We could also see Alves land a bomb on the feet and put Colby down or see that situation lead to a submission. I’m not a fan of the way that Covington reacts to getting hit, he panics and that can lead to mistakes. Play the Under.

Urijah Faber/ Frankie Saenz 

See Betting Sceanrio Section.

DEMIAN MAIA/ GUNNAR NELSON Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Most likely this fight will be a stalemate. Either they get stuck on the feet or neither man can get a good enough positional advantage to pull off the submission when on the mat. I am not ruling out a finish and the odds reflect it. Still, I think the Over is the play here and it pays a little better than the average Over.

RONALDO SOUZA/YOEL ROMERO Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.60 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both men are killers and I understand why this line is set at 1.5. I had it at 2.5, with the price set at $1.90. Neither guy has built a reputation for flash finishes, though they are capable. Of Romero’s last 5 fights, all have gone to the 3rd round, despite 4 finishing before the final bell. He is a patient fighter and looks for opening to attack. Sometimes it takes him a while to find that opening. Jacare has gone to the 3rd in 2 of his last 3 fights and has gone to the 3rd round or beyond in 7 of his last 12 fights. Chris Camozzi has accounted 2 of his 5 quick finishes in that span. Expect a lot of feeling out and measuring early to get this fight into the second half. Jacare tries to shoot, Romero works hard to avoid.

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