UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm Pocast- ‘Definitively Defeated & a New Queen Takes the Thrown’
The MMA world is in upheaval! There is a new Queen in the Women’s Bantamweight division and her name is Holly Holm. The complete and utter decimation of the FORMER champion Ronda Rousey punctuated by a brilliant head kick KO early in round 2. UFC 193 was a mix of exciting fights and then some less then exciting matches. We have a new champion in one division, the same in another. Let’s take a look at how the card played out and then check out my post fight PODCAST looking at the monumental main event.Notes from the Prelims…
- The show got off to a fast start with Ben Nguyen submitting his opponent in timely fashion. With a pair of 1st round finishes ‘Ben 10’ could be due for a step up in competition.
- Maintaining the fast pace of the night, James Moontasri spent a little time on his back against his late notice opponent, but once on the feet it was all over quickly. ‘Moonwalker’ landed a beautiful turning side-kick/ spinning back-fist combo to incapacitate his opponent and pick up a win and possibly some bonus money.
- After a pair of finishes, we were ‘treated’ to our first decision of the night. Richard Walsh came out strong landing hard leg kicks to take away the base of his opponent and despite a few tense moments on the mat, he was dominant on the feet and took home the win as a result.
- A back and forth fight saw Daniel Kelly earn decision victory with a strong start and determined finish. After dropping the middle frame, Kelly was clearly exhausted, but came out and dragged his opponent to the mat to seal the round and the fight.
- The wrestling of Danny Martinez proved to be the deciding factor in his first UFC win in 4 tries. Martinez found success with his monotone power strike offense, but every time his opponent started to find success on the feet Martinez countered with his wrestling and ground it on out on the mat.
- An outcome that many saw coming, Gian Villante scored an opening round knockout of Anthony Perosh. Villante was coming off a significant setback in his last fight, but outside of the loss to Tom Lawlor he appears to be gaining some traction in the lower regions of the division.
- A gut wrenching front kick stoppage by Australia’s own Kyle Noke dropped Sobotta early in the first frame and he was never able to recover. Noke’s relevancy in the division is waning, but a devastating win of this nature will certainly improve his stock.
- Rounding out the prelims, Aussie Jake Matthews took some big shots early from Arreola and was on the cusp of getting upset in the first round. Matthew rallied late in the first and it carried over in the second round where he continued to pound away on his opponent on the mat. Between rounds 2 and 3 the doctor took a long look at Arreola and called the fight based on facial damage.
After 5 stoppages on the prelims, the Jared Rosholt ground out a decision victory over a lethargic Stefan Struve. Struve seemed concerned with the takedowns and rightfully so. Once Rosholt took him down it appeared to academic. Struve offered very little off his back and even in the final minutes of the fight he seemed unwilling to lay it on the line despite clearly losing the first 2 rounds. Struve will most likely drop from the top 15 and Rosholt will land somewhere in the bottom 3.Coming Up Short
The aggression of Robert Whittaker kept Uriah Hall fighting off his back foot for the majority of the first 2 rounds. Despite a more active final inning by Hall, he was behind on the scorecards and was never able to catch up. Hall took a punch to the eye and earned an unwarranted eye poke stoppage. The damage clearly effected Hall and Whittaker kept coming forward. Whittaker is now 3-0 at Middleweight and moving up the rankings. A fight with his original opponent Michael Bisping seems like an appropriate next pairing. Hall’s loss is a significant setback and adds further fuel to the flame that the Mousasi knockout was a fluke.No Trilogy Needed
The first fight was a war, the second fight was more of a calm before the storm. Mark Hunt waited patiently for his opportunity to attack and then capitalized to the utmost. A grazing shot to the side of the Bigfoot’s head sent the former Strikeforce competitor crashing to the mat and the follow-up strikes brought the bout to the end in the first round. Hunt continues to defy the odds and remain relevant in a division where he was an afterthought in just a few years ago. There aren’t a lot of fights for Hunt right now considering he has fought a number of the top ranked fighters already. A rematch with Ben Rothwell might be the best option, considering both men are in a far bettering place then their first meeting. For Silva, it could be curtains. If not, Bigfoot vs Struve looks good to me.The Beat’n Rolls On
Despite a valiant effort by the challenger, reining UFC Strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk was simply too much for her over a strong 5 round performance. The volume and speed of the champion kept Valerie Letourneau on the short end of the exchanges. If her hands weren’t enough, the Champion was blasting away with kicking techniques including a violent front kick to the face that temporarily rendered the challenger dazed and confused. Valerie opted to load up on her shots and make her right hand count in the face of getting tagged with 3-4 strikes in response. For the wide odds that were set for this contest, the Canadian held her own and put up a better fight then previous challengers. Most likely Joanna has a rematch with Claudia Gadelha on the horizon. Letourneau’s stock will rise and some high profile bouts are in her future.Undefeated No More
The New UFC Women’s Bantamweight champion Holly Holm executed her game plan to perfection, defended the early rushes, survived a couple of exchanges on the mat. It was clear after the first few minutes that desperation was beginning to seep into the attack of Ronda Rousey. Her striking wasn’t up to par and she was having trouble closing the distance. With every finely pointed counter that Holm landed, Ronda appeared less technical and more desperate to make something happen. This is easily the biggest upset in the history of the sport. Not Serra/GSP, not Dillashaw/Barao- Holly ‘Freakin’ Holm is the new UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion!
The result leaves a lot of questions in the air.
What is Ronda’s next move?
Rematch? Retire? or Relax for a bit?
Where does this leave Miesha Tate?
If not Ronda, who is next for Holly?
Has Cyborg lost all interest in cutting to 135 and/or fighting Ronda?
How will Dana White sleep tonight?
Does Reebok continue to sponsor Rousey if she gets smoked a second time?
and many others.Final Thoughts…
This was a historic night. Big Arena, Big Ego, Big Knockout. Holly Holm is the new champion and all 135 pound contenders have been put on notice. Does Ronda take her ball and go holm? See what I did there? It’s bad, I know. Only time will tell.
It wasn’t a great night for me going 6-7, furthering my current slump, but watching such an epic main event made up for it a little bit. Listen to my post-fight thoughts on the main event posted below. The next UFC event is the TUF Latin America 2 Finale, AKA- UFN 78 and it goes down next Saturday. Time to get to work.
Selection 1: Ryan Benoit $2.28
Selection 2: Mark Hunt $1.38
Selection 3: Uriah Hall $1.72
Selection 4: Anthony Perosh/
Price: $8.77 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 52.62 units
Selection 1: Stefan Struve/
Selection 2: Joanna Jedrzejczyk/
Selection 3: Ben Nguyen/Ryan Benoit Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05
Selection 4: Mark Hunt/
Price: $17.51 x Bet: 5 units
Selection 1: Richie Vaculik $2.05
Selection 2: Uriah Hall $1.72
Selection 3: Kyle Noke/Peter Sobotta Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85
Selection 4: Richard Walsh/
Selection 5: Ryan Benoit $2.28
Price: $54.99 x Bet: 3 units
Payout: 164.97 units
Parlay #2 Main Card Gold Digger
Selection 1: Ronda Rousey by TKO/KO/DQ $3.82
Selection 2: Mark Hunt/
Selection 3: Joanna Jedrzejczyk/
Selection 4: Uriah Hall $1.72
Selection 5: Stefan Struve/
Price: $56.10 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 224.4 units
Fighter 1: Ryan Benoit $9400
Fighter 2: Stefan Struve $9900
Fighter 3: Uriah Hall $9800
Fighter 4: Peter Sobotta $10200
Fighter 5: Mark Hunt $10500
Salary Remaining: $200
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
The Stragety with Team #1 is to take advantage of all of those that are playing either Ronda or Joanna. In order to have 1 of those girls on their team they have to then take a couple of underdogs or at least lower paying fighters. If you compared my 2 teams Benoit and Struve are both washes. Hunt could easily score a first round knockout of Bigfoot and that cancels the points scored by Rousey. Hall vs Whittaker is a head to head bout so 1 is coming away with points the other will have a much smaller return. I don’t see Hall getting knocked out, but the opposite scenario is probably. Sobotta is the wild card here with his histor of first round finishes. If he taps Noke early, that will score some big points compared to Richie Vas who is more likely to take a decision over Martinez then finish him. I would suggest entering multi-entry contests and playing 1 lineup with Ronda and 1 without her. This will allow you to gains some ‘unqiue’ points that other players don’t pick up. Nothing is mor frustrating then being on the cusp of winning some cash and then realizing that everyone ahead of you has the same main event fighter left and you can’t move up.
- Side-Note: If you want to pick up the 2 champs and roll the dice play Ronda, JJ, Hall, Benoit, and Valerie Letourneau. In most tournaments you need 350-425 points to win. If Ronda and JJ grab you 105 each, and Benoit and Hall come in around 85 (higher is better so lets shoot low) that gives you 380ish. That could be enough to secure some cash and if Valerie can grab you between 5 and 15 it only adds to your chances. If Hall and Benoit score first round stoppages that could give you over 400 points between those 4 fighters. Just a thought.
Ben Nguyen $1.72 vs Ryan Benoit $2.28
Opening fight of the night and we are rolling with the Underdog. Benoit’s win over Sergio was looking pretty ugly for him right up until the end of the fight. Prior to dropping Pettis-lite, he was getting second best of the striking exchanges- getting tagged and then coming up short with his own shots. Conversely, Nguyen looked good in his debut blasting away on Alp and scoring the knockout in the first round. Keep in mind, Alp is a still developing striker so Ben had a significant advantage on the feet. I originally was backing Nguyen here until I did one more big check and looked at the last 7 guys that he had faced. Since the last of his 4 knockout losses transpired he has faced 7 opponents who have combined for just 15 knockout wins over 80 fights. The very first guy he faced during that run had 5 of those knockouts, so his last 6 opponents have a combined 10 knockouts. Compared that to Benoit who has 7 in just 11 fights. The long and short of it is that Benoit is the greatest knockout threat Nguyen has faced in a long time and the 4 stoppage defeats from early in his career loom large. Benoit’s cardio is questionable and as a result he drops down to at the very best a Silver parlay leg. At $9400 I really like Benoit. He has stopped his opponent in all of his wins and his opponent has been knocked out multiple times. He offers real potential for a first round finish and a 100+ point return for a pretty economical chunk of your payroll.
Richard Walsh $1.32 vs
Walsh isn’t going to be challenging for the title anytime soon, but I like him in this fight. Kennedy has issues with his defensive wrestling and the size and aggression of Walsh should further those struggles. Kennedy was added to the UFC as a last second injury replacement and under these circumstances the UFC can’t be picky and have to take who is available to them. It is not always the case, but it would appear that Kennedy is not UFC caliber. If he can keep this fight standing he could possibly outwork Walsh at range, but that is a big if. With the manner that Sobotta took Kennedy down with ease and controlled him on the floor, Walsh should be able to replicate that scenario. Look for him to be dogged both in the clinch and on top with his striking. At this price Walsh isn’t overly flashy, bu could work in my Silver play if I opt to open it up to a 4th leg. There aren’t a tonne of decent pay secondary bets on this card so Walsh might serve in that niche. At $10800, I’m not sold on Filthy Rich as a must-have on your DK team. I think there are better options out there.
Daniel Kelly $3.36 vs
I really like that Montgomery is moving up to MW as the cut could not have been easy for man of his size. He should be far less drained and much quicker than Kelly. Kelly is 2-1 in the UFC, but his wins aren’t much to look at. That being said, I am a little leery about betting the Creepy Weasel here. He has yet to get a UFC win and the risk/rewards seems a little disjointed. If his price were to be a little higher, maybe around the $1.50 mark I would be a little more willing to open the purse strings. This fight feels very much like a No Play for me in all areas. I could readdress this fight after I have looked over the entire card, but I have an NP on the board right now.
Anton Zafir $3.89 vs
1 week to get ready for his UFC debut is tough. I do like that Zafir is a teacher. I can relate to this personally and there have been a couple of fun MMA movies made about teacher’s entering the cage. Moontasri looked decent against Pfister, but he was a rather 1-dimensional fighter. Moontasri’s TDD is good and his dynamic striking repertoire is pretty solid. That being said a fighter with a more functional and practical approach to striking could get the better of him, especially if he slows down. This fight is also taking place at 170 pounds which is an added wrinkle that could benefit Moontasri. In the end, the value is simply not there to bet Moontasri. Two back to back No Plays. FUN!
Richie Vaculik $2.05 vs
This should be a fun scrap, but I feel that this fight should be opening the card and Benoit/Nguyen should be in this spot. ‘Vas’ is a homegrown Aussie so that is most likely why they get the nod. Martinez does two things well- throw left hands and shoot for takedowns. Those skills individually are decent, but the problem is how much he relies on them. Vaculik was beating Smolka on my card until he got knocked out. He was having a lot of success on the feet and getting the better of the grappling until Smolka “warmed up the band!” HBK! I have two concerns here- either Martinez is able to paste Richie with one of those big left hands or wrestle-humps him for a decision. Where I see the Aussie winning is by being a more diverse striker and outpacing Martinez who is known to slow down. Richie is a pretty good grappler in his own right and could score some TDs considering how easy Kakai took Danny down. Fighting in Australia and a different time zone can play havoc with a fighter’s body and for a guy that doesn’t have great cardio to start it could really mess Martinez up. I am really leaning toward Richie as a Gold leg parlay contributor. Considering the number of heavy favs on the card, our side bet options are limited and at this price I think he is a decent play. Looking at this DW value- he costs you $9700 and has averaged 33.8 points. That isn’t a great return, but the way that Martinez gives up his back I could see Richie locking in an RNC. Most DW teams this weekend will have Ronda or JJ on them, so anytime you can get an underdog that allows you to free up some extra cash you should take it. I see Vaculik making the cut on my secondary DW team.
Anthony Perosh $4.60 vs
If Villante can’t win this fight he is officially a bust. I had a lot higher hopes for him in the UFC. Not that he would challenge for the title, but I don’t think a consistent presense in the top 15 even top 10 is too high an expectation. Persosh does one thing well and that is grapple, from top position. Villante is a better athlete and should have the counter wrestling capable of defending against this threat. I can’t bet Villante at $1.25, it simply is not worth it and he has lost fights where he should have won before- see the Maldonado and Lawlor fights. The total is worth a look for sure and is probably the only playable option in this fight. At $10900, Villante has real potential to score a 1st round stoppage and if you opt to build a team without Ronda or JJ on it, Villante should be a frontrunner for your squad.
Kyle Noke $2.49 vs Peter Sobotta $1.62
What does Noke have left in the tank? He was gifted a decision in his last fight and that is the most concerning scenario heading into this fight. Sobotta has looked good since returning, but this is the most noteworthy opponent he has had on his current run. I have been impressed with his wrestling and it has been the key focal point of his current success Coincidentally, Noke’s inability to stay vertical has been his biggest downfall of late. I see Sobotta being too active for him on the feet and then scoring some crucial takedowns. He needs to be definitive with his advantages to avoid another bad decision, but I feel where Webb “lost” the fight was his lack of volume when they were striking- that shouldn’t be an issue for Peter. Despite the hometown advantage, I am loading up on Sobotta in my #1 parlay. Sobotta will cost you $10200 to add to your team. If you look at his recent run, 7 wins, 6 coming inside the first round via RNC there is certainly a history to suggest he can score you some points. Even if this fight goes to decision, Sobotta should put up a decent score with his volume and positional control. I don’t expect a lot will be looking at him as a much have so he could be some found points.
Jake Matthews $1.11 vs
Put it all on Jake the snake. Nope. He should win this fight, but I don’t see it being as dominant as these odds would suggest. I total looks like an option here, but needs a little more attention before I give it the ole stamp of approval. At $11000 take a pass on JMats for your DW team.
Stefan Struve $1.89 vs
Big fight for both men. If Struve drops this one any thought of him competing at the top of the division is over. For Rosholt, a win pushes him into the top 15 after a pretty solid run outside of the upper echelon. Rosholt’s lack of consistent wrestling is my big concern here. He struggles to close the distance and once there he has a lot of issues dragging his opponent to the mat. Against Walt Harris, he had all kinds of trouble getting on the inside and against Struve those struggles should be magnified. For Struve, if he is going to make a run this is his fight to do it in. He is returning after a regular layoff and should be full entrench in his new camp. I give Struve a wide advantage on the feet and that will show up here. Rosholt is a tad bit chinny and it nearly cost him in his last fight. He needs to brawl his way inside and then try to drag Struve to the floor ASAP. Even that approach leaves him open to getting hit. There is value here in Struve as I had him around the $1.65 mark at best. He makes the cut in my gold level parlay. He should also be a frontrunner for your DK team. At $9900, I see a knockout inside the opening 2 rounds with Struve landing a brutal right hand as Rosholt desperately tries to get on the inside.
Uriah Hall $1.72 vs
Hall saw an opportunity and took it. He is coming off the biggest win of his career and has a chance to build on it with a win over Whittaker. On the other side of the coin, while Whittaker is a good fighter he isn’t held in as high regard as Mousasi is. Therefore, a loss here kills a lot of the momentum that Prime Time currently has going for him. Many people are pointing at Hall say that he can’t deal with pressure. I get why they are saying that. What I counter with is that he can’t deal with pressure from fighters that are threatening to take him down. That was the case with Natal, Gastelum, and even John Howard. Mousasi was dominant on the mat in first inning and as a result we can see why Hall is concerned with being taken down. Whittaker might be capable of threatening with TDs, but he certainly has not shown in so far in his UFC run. I don’t like backing fighters that need to work a gameplan that takes them out of their comfort zone. I see this fight playing out similar to the Thompson fight. Whittaker comes forward and tries to pressure/ attack Hall and he avoids and counters. Hall has a massive reach and he knows how to use it. My biggest concern is that Uriah lets the pressure be enough to win by not being active enough. If Whittaker is continually coming forward and only landing a smaller percentage, Hall has to fire back or the judges will give Robert the win based on pressure. I like Hall’s skill set to carry him to victory and his price is certainly workable. Hopefully, he doesn’t slip too much as I think he makes the cut as either a Gold Parlay leg or a central contributor on my Silver Play. At $9800, I want Hall on my team. I am looking to build a team that doesn’t not have RR or JJ on it. They might finish in the opening round, but they hamper your budget quite badly and could force you to play a pair of long shots to round out your roster.
Mark Hunt $1.38 vs
And we come to the last playable side bet on the card. I like Mark Hunt here, even at $1.38. Bigfoot did pick up a win in his last fight, but it was the product of his opponent’s shortcomings and not so much what he is capable of that got him the W. Silva really struggled with the hand speed of Arlovski and Frank Mir. I put Hunt in that same category. He isn’t as fast as Andrei, but he is more technically sound than Mir. Bigfoot was taken out in both of those fights with a simple combo that he was unable to defend against. Hunt throws a solid 1-2 that could do the job or the final blow could come from a leaping left hook. Either way, I don’t see Bigfoot finding much success here. At $1.38 I can play Hunt. He doesn’t pay as well as some of my other picks, but I feel strongly that he wins this fight. Hunt will most likely make the cut in either my Gold or Silver play. I am leaning towards a Silver bet, simply because I see him as the 4th leg of parlay and I try to keep my Gold parlays at just 3 legs. Hunt, like Hall, should be on your Fantasy team. He will cost you $10500 and is the most expensive signing on my A squad (AKA the No Ronda team). First round knockout is a real possibility and that will garner you a lot of points. The total is also in play.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.06 vs
Clearly we are not backing a side bet here. JJ has been dominant and Letourneau hasn’t proven herself against top flight competition, so I won’t invest in her despite the massive return she offers. Some are expecting JJ to absolutely smash here and that could be the case, but I think Valerie will give her a bit more of a challenge than these lines indicate. I will take a look at the total here for my most likely play. From a DK standpoint, most people will sell out the rest of their roster to get either of the champs on their teams. I get it. They offer huge opportunities to score points, but they also hurt your budget. At $11300 she badly hurts your team’s ability to purchase other strong players. If you play JJ, your average play salary remaining for the other 4 players is $9675. That means by picking her you have to pick a combo of 4 dogs/pick’em fights. So JJ or RR might earn you some decent points, but the rest of your team will struggle to keep up.
Ronda Rousey $1.05 vs
I have heard rumblings of a big time gambler putting a lot of cash down on Holly Holm to take the title. Honestly, I would like to see it, because it would add a new dimension to the Ronda Rousey story- retribution! I don’t see it as I expect Ronda to close the distance and negate Holly’s greatest strengths with her Judo game. Once on the mat, it is all Rousey and the finish will follow shortly thereafter. I will look at the total here for the best betting option for this fight. For your fantasy needs, I would feel more comfortable in taking RR then JJ. Ronda has a better chance of shutting this down in the opening round IMO. Keep in mind if you sell out to play Rousey, so is pretty much everyone else, so then the onus turns on picking less costly fighters to fill out the ranks. Conversely, as is the plan with my #1 DW team, if you have a solid team top to bottom you can score more points over the entire card.
1. Ronda Rousey $1.05- Shocking right?
2. Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.06
3. Mark Hunt $1.38
4. Gian Villante $1.25
5. Jake Matthews $1.11
6. Richard Walsh $1.32
7. Stefan Struve $1.89
8. Peter Sobotta $1.62
9. Richie Vaculik $2.05
10. Uriah Hall $1.72
11.Ryan Benoit $2.28
12. Steve Montgomery $1.39
1. Richie Vaculik $2.05
2. Ryan Benoit $2.28
3. Stefan Struve $1.89
4. Uriah Hall $1.72
5. Ben Nguyen/Ryan Benoit Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Kyle Noke $2.49- Noke was gifted a decision in his last fight at home and it was a heartbreaker. If you have parlay that comes down to Sobotta or is only a fight or 2 away if he wins, considering hedging with Noke. At this price a small single could give you some cash to reinvest in the main card if the Aussie upsets the apple cart. If he doesn’t it is all systems go.
2. I would take a similar approach with Whittaker. In fact, if you have a parlay that includes Prop bets in the title fights and just need Hall to come through with a win, hedge your bet and back Whittaker in a small parlay with your props.
Whittaker + Ronda Sub & JJ Over 2.5 = 7.18 x Your Bet
If Whittaker wins and the 2 props cash you recoup your losses from the Hall bet and have some profit, compared to losing it all if Hall craps the bed. If Holly Holm takes a decision, well shit just got real didn’t it and the MMA world will collapse in on itself. Additionally, watching the pain and anguish on Daddy Dana’s face if he is able to put the belt on the new champ will make losing your bet a little less stingy.
Betting Scenario Section.
Ben Nguyen/Ryan Benoit
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I had this fight pegged at 1.5 round so whenever we get that extra round you have to hit it. Kennedy has been finished in all 7 of his losses- 2 knockouts and 5 submissions. All 7 came in the first round. He also had 12 1st round finishes and has only gone the distance 5 times in 29 fights. Walsh has finished in 5 of his 8 wins, all in the opening round. 2 of his 3 losses have come inside the distance as well- both before the start of the third. Walsh comes out and uses his physical style to beat down Kennedy for the eventual stoppage. Play the Under.
Both guys have the ability to finish- Villante by knockout and Perosh by sub. Perosh has never won by decision with 13 1st round finishes. He has also been finished in 6 of 9 fights, all by knockout. 5 of 6 in the opening round. Villante has 8 wins by knockout, 5 in the first round and 12 of his fights have ended before the 1.5 round mark. Most likely, Villante lands a massive shoot and scores the knockout. Play the Under
.Kyle Noke/Peter Sobotta Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85
This play is based purely on what Sobotta has done of late. Of his last 7 wins, 6 have come by first round RNC. Noke is a tough nut to crack, but he has been submitted twice in his career and a third wouldn’t be that farfetched. The defensive grappling issues that Noke has coupled with the ability of Sobotta to finish on the mat backed by the return on this play makes it a decent investment.Jake Matthews/
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With the Heavies there is always a good chance that the Under hits. Of their combined 9 losses- all of them have been finishes. 6 of Struve’s 7 losses have come in the first round. He also has 13 first round wins of his own. Rosholt has lost twice, both by knockout- once in the opening round and once in the middle frame. This bout should be relatively sloppy as Rosholt is going to struggle to close the distance and that will leave him open to getting countered and KOed. Play the Under.
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This is probably not what you were expecting to read here. JJ is a killer there is no doubt of that and the odds are massively in her favour. But, if you look at her past history she has just 1 first round finish, which came back in her 2nd pro bout. She has gone to decision 5 times and it too her almost to the end of the 3rd round to finish off Jessica Penne. Letourneau is a bigger opponent and that should help her to deal with the impact of JJ’s strikes. She has also taken damage before and kept fighting, I could see why you would play the Under here, but at this price and the Champ’s history- I like the Over.
Ronda Rousey to Win by Submission $1.45
This play is not flashy, but it gives you a little more wiggle room then the Under 1.5 and pays better. Ronda knows that her strength in this fight is her submission game. She has scored knockouts in 3 of her last 4 fights, but Holm is a different animal. I wouldn’t be suprised to see Ronda try and stand with her for a bit and see how it plays out. If it doesn’t go well then she can change directions and look to take her down. Or she might jab her way into the clinch, throw HH, and start working towards her submission of choice. At this price I think it is a valid add to a parlay.