UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia- ‘Lay Down, You Look Tired’

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The people that were promoting Bethe Correia as the next TJ Dillashaw level upset in the making were diving for cover not even a minute after Bruce Buffer introduced the UFC 190 main event. ‘Rowdy’ Ronda is still the champion, it was a rough night for the Nogueira brothers, and the World Series of Fighting makes an appearance on my list of Biggest Winners and Losers from Saturday night.

Winners

Ronda Rousey

She retained her title in dominant fashion over an undeserving opponent. Not only did she beat Correia, she KOed her in violent fashion and continues to show the added striking threat that she brings to the table. She now has a big fight with Miesha Tate ahead of her and it sounds like she will co-main event the Aldo/McGregor card. Another quick fight and another big payday.

Claudia Gadelha

Her win gets a little lost on the main card, but she picked up a pair of dominant rounds to beat the formerly ranked #1 Strawweight on the planet in Aguilar. She now gets a shot at the title and Joanna J. Champion- a fighter that she already feels she has defeated once.

Antonio Silva

Coming off a pair of knockout losses and the suspension Bigfoot’s back was against the wall and he came through. It didn’t look good early, with Palelei doing damage from top position. Silva came out in the second frame and landed some hard shots early and the combination of the impact of poor endurance lead to Soa crumbling under Bigfoot’s hands. A fight with the winner of Barnett/ Nelson makes sense to me.

Demian Maia

For the second straight fight the again BJJ Ace was faced with a young rising prospect riding a significant winning streak. After a dominant decision win over Ryan LaFlare, Maia got the job done quicker with a middle round RNC finish of Neil Magny. It is a tough loss for Magny and exposes the massive defensive vulnerability that still remains in his game. Maia will remain in the top 10 and a fight with another prospect in Gunnar Nelson offers an exciting proposition.

Patrick Cummins

He showed a lot of heart in the face of a badly damaged…face. He won the majority of the fight, but Cavalcante was doing damage whenever he landed and had Cummins eyes swelling shut. After the setback against OSP, Cummins is right back in the mix and continues to show some improvements in his striking game. Defeating a former champion is a nice addition to a young fighter’s resume. Cummings versus Tom Lawlor next please.

Losers

Bethe Correia

Talk sh!t and get hit as he old saying goes. Correia talke a big game, got herself into a big fight, and Ronda go her out of there is a big way. We knew it would devastating, we knew it would be quick, we just didn’t know if would be by submission or knockout. She is a loser in that she got smoked and will never fight for the title again, but she has raised her profile from a relative unknown and will get some bigger fights as a result.

TUF Brazil/ UFC Decision Making

That was just a bad idea to split the PPV up with a pair of TUF Brazil Tournament finals. People bought this event to watch Ronda and staying up far later than normal to see the final fight was excessive and unnecessary. Put these fights on the Prelims. The action was so-so and the outcome for most held little significance. The UFC still tried to champion the idea of a 7 fight PPV card, were not idiots, please don’t treat us as such. The concept of the show is fading fast and this was evident here. Let it die.

Rafael Cavalcante

He looked like a world beater when he took out King Mo and despite the loss to Henderson there were still high hopes for his future. They are gone and he might be as well. Cummins rag dolled him and basically made him quite. Feijao did some damage, but he could capitalize enough to turn the fight in his favour. Either some very generous matching making or a pink slip lies in his future.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

He had Shogun hurt big time in the first round and couldn’t finish him. Not only could he not finish him, he couldn’t even earn another winning round to couple with the early damage to give him the decision. Unable to defeat Shogun at this point in his career leaves very few options for Little Nog going forward against anyone in the top 10 or even 15. His name still carries enough significance that another fight is certainly possible, but he may want to consider the route that his brother appears to be taking. With Big Nog apparently headed towards retirement, he deserves all of the praise of a legend of his caliber.

Rousimar Palhares

He didn’t fight at UFC 190, but he still compete on Saturday night under the WSOF banner and this list wouldn’t make sense without his name on it. He has a history of questionable behaviour and he added to it again in his title defense against Jake Shields. After getting warned multiple times for eye gauging his opponent from top position, he opted to hold and intensify his third round Kimura even after the tap and referee’s attempt to break the hold. The Brazilian is known for holding submissions too long and his latest efforts resulted in Shields throwing a punch after the bell and a near riot. The commission may need to step in an prevent him from doing further damage by not licensing him. If a knockout artist routinely landed blatant late punches after every fight it would be pretty cut and dry. This guy is a massive talent, but a colossal loser and black eye for the sport.

Final Thoughts

Who is left for Ronda to fight that she hasn’t already fought? Holly Holm? Sure, but she is not ready. Cyborg? Yeah, but that isn’t happening anytime soon- so why not give Tate/Rousey III another go. I like it and look forward to it. Brazilians went 5-4 against foreign competition, which is a little below the norm. The Bet Pack produced some solid numbers including a pair of winning parlays, all of which can be seen below. On a slightly unrelated note, as much as I like WSOF filling the slot of the #3 North American promotion, there lack of depth has been hoping that they will be purchased and merge into Bellator creating some interesting matchups. With the upcoming down week at the end of August I hope to look at this a little closer. That is a wrap for UFC 190, we have back to back UFN cards to round out the month, both of which are cards with a lot of potential. Until then…

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Soa Palelei $1.55
Selection 2: Demian Maia $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Stefan Struve $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Ronda Rousey Wins by Submission $1.48
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Price: $6.17 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 61.7 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Patrick Cummins $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Vitor Miranda $2.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Antonio Silva/
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Price: $6.46 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 38.76 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Rafael Cavalcante/
Selection 2: Vitor Miranda/
Selection 3: Shogun Rua $1.56 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Warley Alves $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $8.81 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 44.05 units
 
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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Demian Maia $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Vitor Miranda $2.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Shogun Rua to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.50
Selection 4: Stefan Struve/
Selection 5: Antonio Silva/
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Price: $27.26 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 109.04 units
 

Hugo Viana $1.33 vs

Viana’s price is dropping and while he appears to be the vastly superior fighter, he still leaves enough openings that the aggressive attack of Cannetti could capitalize on them. Simply put I won’t be backing Viana here, No Play.

4 STARS

Vitor Miranda $2.43 vs

Hester has the physical attributes to win this fight and if he comes in when the intent of using his improving wrestling game he could walk away with this one. That being said, I expect him to use his boxing as his primary weapon. While he is powerful and comes from a boxing background, he is a little too sloppy for my liking. Miranda has a very good kickboxing game and if he can keep Hester at range I expect to seem him landing at will. The manner in which Hester went down against Whittaker didn’t instill a lot of confidence. Miranda has fight ending power, sharper technique, and he offers a more diverse attack. Additionally, if this fight goes the distance I like Brazilian to get the nod at home. I like Miranda in my Silver pack. He has just a single UFC win, but the price is right and he picking a Brazilian at home is never a bad idea. If you want to hedge your bet here either before the fight or with a Live bet consider playing Hester via decision. It should pay a little more than Hester to win straight up and I don’t see him knocking out Miranda.

4 STARS

Iuri Alcantara $1.43 vs

There is a lot of talk regarding Issa pulling the upset here. Alcantara’s defensive wrestling has been brutal, but I don’t see Issa’s wrestling presenting the same obstacles as Faber, Saenz, Reis, or even Doane. If Iuri opts not to keep separation and flops to his back that is a different story. Issa has been very reliant on his opponents willfully engaging him in a grappling contest- Alcantara should be able to avoid this. He is the better athlete and his striking is vastly superior. Issa has been knocked out twice and has been hurt in a couple of his fights. Nonetheless, I am not too excited about backing Alcantara and most likely won’t invest in him. I may consider a counter bet on Issa, especially if that price line continues to increase.

4 STARS

Warley Alves $1.46 vs

I think Taleb is a live dog here, especially if Alves comes out gunning like he did in his last fight. Alves has all the tools and people are still very high on him. Taleb comes from a good camp, is physically strong and while he might not overwhelm you with a diverse offense- he does what he does very well. His pressure striking based attack that he used against Clements could serve him well especially if he couples it with a quick level change when Alves comes forward. Based on Taleb’s struggles on the show I could see him slowing down in this fight if Alves pushes him. I could also see this fight coming down to a controversial decision as Taleb may struggle to distance himself in the eyes of the judges. Taleb might be a worth a counter bet at this price and I might consider Alves as a possible Bronze level parlay member. Continuing my new focus on Live betting options, if Alves is giving you plus money heading into the third round in a close fight- make a small play. We have seen time and time again that beating a Brazilian in Brazil via the judges needs a dominant effort.

4 STARS

Rafael Cavalcante $2.43 vs

Cavalcante is the better all-around MMA fighter. Unfortunately, that isn’t always what it takes to win a fight. Cummins’s wrestling is very good and should be ale to replicate the issues that Rafael has had with his TDD and poor endurance. Even though Cummins was having success against OSP, his willingness to shoot with no setup got him knocked out. Something similar could happen here. Feijao will most likely tire out after a takedown or two and the likelihood of him countering are limited, but still there. Having fought in Brazil will aid him in dealing with the hostile atmosphere. Cummins continues is smothering ways, but even at a decent price like this he is Silver pack material. Live bet or pick up a prop bet for Cavalcante to win by knockout for a small hedge bet especially if he gets over $3.00

4 STARS

Demian Maia $1.65 vs

One guy has fought for a title and is trying to hold onto his spot as he heads towards the end of his career. The other guy is riding a massive run of momentum and has an opportunity to really make his mark with a win here. Both guys are capable of capitalizing on the other fighter’s area of vulnerability. Maia is a great grappler and Magny has been taken down in almost every single fight he has been involved in. Magny is the more technical striker and knows how to capitalize on a fighter that is starting to fade due to poor cardio. So, who wins out? Maia’s 5 round performance against LaFlare showed he can out-grapple a good grappler even when tired. I see him taking Magny down and smothering him for 2 rounds and then holding on for round 3. Top control and back mount will be discouraging for the American as they eat up large portions of the fight. I really like Maia here and he will make the cut in my largest investment of the weekend. Magny has experience fighting in Brazil and momentum on his side. Maia’s issues with tiring out and Magny’s recent success with stopping opponents suggests that Live betting him heading into the final round will give you the best value on Magny. He is a live dog, but I expect him to be down 2-0 going into the third which should push his value into the $5.50 range or above. An exhausted Maia will give him his best chance to win and will also come with his best price- bet accordingly.

4 STARS

Claudia Gadelha $1.25 vs

I though Gadelha won against JJ, but I understand why the decision went the way it did. This fight is a No Play for me though. Aguilar is top level veteran and I expect to see a closer fight that the odds would suggest. I could consider a counter-bet on her at this price as it does seem a little high.

4 STARS

Antonio Silva $2.74 vs

Now we come to a trio of fights that involve some seriously degraded fighters. Bigfoot is done. He could still win this fight, but he is done. The only way he wins this fight is if he can survive the first round and Soa gasses. Silva should have the better gas tank and Soa will slow tremendously after the opening round. He is still capable of winning the fight, but it won’t be pretty. Silva’s chin is gone and that is why Palelei is the bet here. He appears to be a bit quicker and if he doesn’t land something in the process of closing the distance, he will do it on the mat. He looked a little more methodical in his last fight (won in round 2) and that will pay dividends here. Soa joins Maia in my top parlay. I feel like I am saying this a lot, but it seems like a viable option- if Silva losses the opening round, but Soa appears to be tiring near the end take a look at how much Bigfoot’s price has climbed before round 2 starts it could be in the mid $3.00 range and playable.

4 STARS

Stefan Struve $1.63 vs

One is physically shot and at the end of his career. The other has some major physical concerns that could bring about the early end of his career. Minotauro’s granite chin has crumbled and that will be his undoing. I simply can’t seem him getting inside the reach of Struve without taking a big shot. Struve doesn’t use his reach as good as he should, but he still gave Overeem all kinds of trouble on the outside until the fight hit the mat. There is that concern too- if Nog gets on the floor without taking damage could he lock up an arm or attack his neck? Possibly, but its probably less possible than a puncher’s chance. Struve is significantly bigger and younger. His heart is a concern and is chin is an issue. When you look at the type of guys that have knocked him out they are massive flamethrowers or guys that are able to build up large amounts of damage that anyone would crumble under. Nog won’t pull of either. Nog could pull off one last run in Brazil, but I am not banking on it. Struve, despite his vulnerabilities makes the cut on my Gold parlay play.

4 STARS

Shogun Rua $1.56 vs

Two more vastly degraded fighters, who shows up in better physical condition? Shogun is younger, but they have both take a tonne of damage. I do like that Shogun has been far more active of late, but he has taken some sizeable damage in that span- getting knocked out in each of his last 2 fights. Little Nog looked stiff and out off his game against Rumble, even more getting his head launched into outer space. That is another factor, how does that violent knockout impact him? I did consider Nog here, but I felt Rua looked decent against Henderson and his wrestling (which worked in their first fight) will show up here again. With Shogun’s recent struggles he isn’t my favourite play, but I just can’t put any faith in what Nog Lite has to offer either. Shogun most likely falls to a Silver play, potentially even as far as a bronze parlay leg.

4 STARS

Ronda Rousey $1.07 vs

I have seen people who are backing Correia. One guy even thinks Bethe will win with ease, comparing this fight to Dillashaw/Barao 1. I just don’t see it. Correia lacks a solid range striking game to maintain the required separation and the manner in which Baszler tied her up on the mat is even more concerning. Shayna is a capable submission fighter, but she is no Ronda. The impact in which Ronda can put an opponent on the mat with creates issues even before she starts sub hunting. After they hit the mat, she has so many variations and ways to beat her opponent it is difficult for them to overcome. Could Correia clip her? Possibly. Could she outlast her? Maybe. I have seen some people advocating playing the Over because of the big value. Save your money. With the exception of the 2nd Tate fight, since Ronda has become champion her 5 other title defenses have lasted a combined 7:29. That numbers includes the Carmouche fight which lasted 4:49. The scary thing is, she is getting stronger. Her last 3 fights lasted a total of 1:34 and it was against much more accomplish and capable opponents than the one she has in front of her. I commend Bethe for getting this fight and Rousey in Brazil is fun. Obviously Ronda isn’t worth betting on even though she is a lock, I will look at the props in the appropriate section as they will most likely offer the only playable option.

1. Ronda Rousey $1.07 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Soa Palelei $1.55

3. Demian Maia $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Stefan Struve $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Hugo Viana $1.33

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6. Claudia Gadelha $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Warley Alves $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Patrick Cummins $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Iuri Alcantara $1.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Vitor Miranda $2.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Shogun Rua $1.56 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Demian Maia $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / Unless Magny has drastically improved his defensive wrestling or Maia can only get a single round in before gassing Maia earns the ‘W’.

2. Vitor Miranda $2.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / His opponent has the tools to win this bout, but Miranda is better in the key area where I anticipate the action will take place. Fighting at home helps.

3. Stefan Struve $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / Younger, bigger, and at this point in his career a little more durable than Nog. Keep an eye for Struve’s price to climb a little before bell time.

4. Patrick Cummins $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / Hopefully he has learned from his last fight and study tape on how Bader set his TDs up against Cavalcante. Even so, if he can take him down early he should be able to exhaust him and negate the knockout threat.

5. Soa Palelei $1.55  / Bigfoot would have been the favourite here about a year or so ago, but his last 2 bouts have shown that post-TRT Silva is much slower and far less durable. Hulk smash comes through at some point and makes it a trio of knockouts for the Squatch.

1. Leandro Issa $3.16 – Alcantara looked so listless in his last fight it is hard not to consider a bet on Issa here. Here is a top level grappler and could grind out Iuri for 3 rounds if he can get him down consistently.

2. Nordine Taleb $3.00 Taleb will come in with a sound game plan and if Warlley doesn’t fight smart he could drop the final 2 rounds. I see a controversial decision in this fight so consider back Alves if he is give you plus money heading into the final round.

3. Neil Magny $2.53 – If you want to back Magny do it either after the first or second round. If Maia is fading badly to close our round 1, but still won the round look at the line on Magny and consider a bet. If Demian looks ok coming out of the first repeat the process heading into the final round where Magny could rally for a late stoppage while paying out at his optimum price.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Betting Scenario Section.

Prop Bets

Hugo Viana/

See Betting Scenario Section.

Vitor Miranda/

See Betting Scenario Section.

Rafael Cavalcante/

The bump in price and 1.5 rounds is based largely on Cavalcante’s finishing skills. Considering Cummins is who I have winning, this line is found money. Cummins has gone the distance in his last 2 wins and Cavalcante is coming off a decision defeat. Maybe the numbers on this line have the odds maker sneakily suggesting Cavalcante is a very liv dog.

Demian Maia/

See Betting Scenario Section.

Claudia Gadelha/

Antonio Silva/

Not too much of a surprise here. Palelei has finished his opponent in all 22 of his wins, 16 times in the first round. Bigfoot’s chin appears to be gone. Both Mir and Arlovski took him out and 6 of his last 8 fights have ended inside the opening frame. Play the Under.

Stefan Struve/

This under takes advantage of both mens’ vulnerabilities. Big Nog has not gone beyond the middle round in any of his last 6 fights, with 4 ending before the 5 minute mark. Just half of Struve’s last 8 bouts ended inside the opening round. He tends to be a little bit of a slow starter which is concerning, but I think he can catch Nog when he starts to desperately try to close the distance. Play the Under.

Shogun Rua/

See Betting Scenario Section.

Ronda Rousey Wins by Submission $1.48

The Under doesn’t have an enticing price line, but Rousey winning by submission works for me. She does have a pair of TKO wins on her resume, but both of them occurred for the most part when her opponent didn’t survive her early attack. Had the fight progressed she most likely works her way towards the tap or snap scenario. The value on Rousey by some form of knockout is interesting, but I think Ronda goes back to the old stand by after tossing Bethe on her head during an early clinch.

 

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