UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano- “Next!”

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On a night dominated by finishes, the quickest was saved for last. After back to back split decisions to start UFC 184, 8 of the next 9 fights failed to make it beyond the 2nd round. 3 knockouts, 3 submissions, 1 DQ, and just another night at the office for the Women’s Bantamweight champion of the world. Let’s take a look at my 5 takeaways from this card.

When it’s time, it’s time

Mark Munoz was quickly dispatched by the returning Roan Carneiro, who will most likely return to the Welterweight division for his next fight. Munoz had lost recent fights against upper echelon opposition, but Roan is a far cry from the top of the division. The 37 year old has lost 4 of 5 and has been finished in all 4. It might be time for Munoz to hang up his gloves and move onto the next stage of his life.

Ruan Potts should also cease and desist, at least competing at the UFC level. He was given 3 chances and showed next to nothing prior to getting finished in each appearance- most recently by Derrick Lewis. The Heavyweight division is thin, but not that thin.

The Lightweight division is loaded

As of writing this Tony Ferguson is not ranked in the top 15 fighters in his division. He became just the second guy to submit Gleison Tibau in the Brazilian’s long career. Yes he did some significant damage with his hands prior to the finish, but it is an impressive win nonetheless. Ferg has now won 5 in a row and is 8-1 in the UFC which included winning a TUF tournament. The significance of winning TUF is waning, but Tony is a multifaceted fighter that is still making significant improvements. He is a solid wrestler with good submission skills and is very dangerous on the feet. A fight against the winner of Masvidal/ Iaquinta would work for me or if wanted to take on a bigger name Nate Diaz would fit the bill.

Come on Ref!

There were various scenarios on this night that left a bad taste in my mouth regarding the officiating. The first started when Valmir Lazaro claimed a low blow foul against James Krause and all those bad feelings of the Krause/Green/McCarthy debacle came rushing back.

The Lewis/Potts bout probably could have been stopped sooner, but it wasn’t the worst on the night.

Big John was back in the spotlight when he continually badgered Roman Salazar following an eye poke that ended his night. You just get the sense that McCarthy enjoys hearing his own voice when the camera is on him.

Jerin Valel had a tough night as well. It was pretty clear that Mark Munoz was out and yet Valel continued to stare into his lifeless face waiting for a more clear indication that the fight was over. Carneiro let the hold go before Valel elected to put an end to the fight.

Things didn’t get much better for Valel when he left Josh Koscheck to foam at the mouth while locked in a nasty North/South choke at the hands of Jake Ellenberger. Even when Kos tapped, Valel failed to initially break the hold which is just unfortunate.

Hit me with your best shot

Cat Zingano clearly had devised a game plan that centered on getting off to a good start. After back to back fights where she got pummelled in the early going, the challenger launched herself at champion and the results were devastating. Ronda Rousey avoid the direct impact of the initial attack and convert her momentum into a fight ending straight armbar. At 14 seconds this was the quickest title defense in the promotion’s history and continued a string of bouts for Rousey that ended before Bruce Buffer could get comfortable in his cage side seat.

Rousey’s last 2 fights have lasted a combined 30 seconds, and since her 3 round bout with Miesha Tate she has spent all of 96 seconds fending off a trio of challengers.

Who’s Next?

With this win, Ronda has now defeated the #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 8th ranked fighters in her division. Who does this leave to challenge Ronda for the title? There are still a couple of options, prior to entertaining rematch options, that could be considered.

#7 Bethe Correia 

Correia isn’t exactly the biggest name on the market, but there is a storyline here. Correia is undefeated and has bested two of Ronda’s stable mates, including a hard TKO finish of Shayna Baszler. This paring could be billed as a vendetta fight asked for by the Champ. A co-main event in Brazil with Aldo (if he beats McGregor) vs Edgar as the headliner would work. Ronda competing in the hostile conditions of Brazil adds another layer to this fight.

#6 Jessica Eye

Eye’s name carries a little more value than Correia’s and she is ranked one spot higher, but she really hasn’t done enough to earn the opportunity yet. I don’t think she is currently paired with anyone, so she could be afforded another chance to face a top level opponent after having already faced the #3 and #5 ranked fighters in the division.

#13 Holly Holm

Cleary she was impacted by UFC jitters in her debut. She won the fight, but it didn’t look like she was anywhere near ready to fight for the title. Holm has the tools to develop into a contender, but 2015 should be spent rounding out her skills. A fight with Jessica Eye could move her up the ranks and position her for a bout with the winner of Kaufman/ Davis at the end of the year. If she can get through those 2 fights and remain undefeated then we could start to talk about a mid-2016 shot.

Final Thoughts

If Miesha Tate keeps winning we could see Rousey/Tate III or possibly Cat getting another shot if she can pick up a couple of wins. Don’t be shocked if you see her back in the cage ASAP.

Overall, I went 6-4 with 2 split decision losses and 4-1 on the main card. The bet pack at a glance looked like this: 46.25 Units won in the parlay section, 4-1 Confidence list, #3 and #5 value winners, OPU 1-0, FPO 0-1, HEFs 1-1, and Props 3-3 (2 Under props narrowly missing). Take a more thorough look below.

Finally, congratulations to Prediction Panel member Mitchell Davies who won the first ever winner takes all Kamikaze Overdrive DraftKings Fantasy tournament, besting 19 other entrants to win $180! I finished 9th out of 20. Keep an eye out for the UFC 185 Tournament.

We have a 2 week break before UFC 185! Time to recharge and then get right back at it.

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Richard Walsh $4.73
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Price: $4.73 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 18.92 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: James Krause $1.58
Selection 2: Tim Means $1.75 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $2.77 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 13.85 units
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Jake Ellenberger $1.51 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Tony Ferguson $1.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $2.27 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 11.35 units
 
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Rousey/
Selection 2: Lewis/
Selection 3: Mark Munoz $1.33
Selection 4: Jake Ellenberger $1.51 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $4.91 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 24.55 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Alex Torres $2.38
Selection 2: Roman Salazar $3.47
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Price: $8.26 x Bet: 3.5 units
Payout: 28.91 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Pennington/
Selection 2: Tim Means $1.75 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Tony Ferguson $1.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Rousey/
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Price: $6.98 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 34.9 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Richard Walsh $4.73
Selection 2: Alex Torres $2.38
Selection 3: Roman Salazar $3.47
Selection 4: Ellenberger/
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Price: $95.71 x Bet: 3 units
Payout: 287.13 units
 

Masio Fullen $1.66 vs

A tough fight here considering all of the outside factors. The most recent footage available comes from their time spent on TUF, which is now quite a bit in the past. There is all kinds of room for growth and development on both sides. This bout was tentatively tied to the first UFC trip to Mexico and I did a prediction as a result. I revisited that pick and then re-watched their fight footage. I changed my pick from Fullen by decision to Torres by the same outcome- we will see if that comes back to bite me. I just felt I saw more out of Torres in his TUF fight then Fullen upon a second viewing. That being said, I don’t think this is a fight you go all-in on. I am thinking either single play or more likely pairing Torres up with a second pick in the Silver section.

4 STARS

James Krause $1.58 vs

Krause’s career in the UFC has been a crazy one so really anything is possible here. The loss to Bobby Green was an odd one and then he turns around and beats Jamie Varner by nasty broken ankle. He should be the better fighter here in all aspects, with the exception of the power factor which should favour Lazaro. If Krause can use his kicking game and length to keep Lazarao out of range then he will nullify the power edge. I expect that Lazaro will look for TDs which Krause will invite and counter. Looking up and down this card there are a lot of extremes. We are either looking at heavy favs with minimal value or risky underdogs that pay a lot, there is very little in between. Krause is one of those. I will ride with him and play him as Gold leg parlay.

4 STARS

Derrick Lewis $1.21 vs

Someone doesn’t care for Potts that much, he has been TKOed by each of his first 2 opponents and now he gets a third fight against a guy that is more then capable of making it a third knockout loss. I honestly don’t see how Potts wins this fight unless he shows us something new. Could he catch Lewis like Mitrione did? Possibly, but not likely. Even with the low odds I think Lewis can add a little bit of extra pop to a parlay, but probably the best play here is the Total. I will post it in the Props section, but you can probably guess what the play is.

4 STARS

Dhiego Lima $2.20 vs

Here is one of those few fights with workable odds. I was originally looking at Lima based on Means’s troubles with grappling heavy opponents. I went back and looked at the fight with Magny to help make my final decision. First he took the bout on short notice and secondly- Magny is on a role of late. I also saw that other then a TD late in the third, Means go up quickly and really controlled a lot of the action on the feet. Lima could score some TDs, but I think Tim will have a lot of success on the feet and keep him backing up. The value is there and Tim makes the cut for a Gold Parlay leg.

4 STARS

Roman Salazar $3.47 vs

Honestly, my pick here was based more on Kid’s current state of affairs as opposed to what Salazar is capable of. Kid is very old for the division and the ring rust will be significant. Roman is a relative unknown here, so I won’t beat around the bush. A single bet here in the Silver pack or used in the Bronze or Wildcard parlays is the most feasible play here.4 STARS

Mark Munoz $1.33 vs Roan Carneiro $3.74

Munoz isn’t going to win a UFC title, but he should be able to win this one. Carneiro is fighting at Middleweight for some odd reason, he is a natural Welterweight. Munoz’s wrestling isn’t that effective against the top level guys and it has impacted his numbers, but against the rest of the field his skills have held up quite nicely. I expect he will be able to outmuscle an opponent that has been far from letter perfect on the mat and gain a positional advantage for larger durations of the fight. The nice thing with Mark is that when he does get on top, he doesn’t let the moment pass without uncorking some serious heat. If Roan was a little more dangerous on the feet I might have some concerns, but I don’t. Then again, we just saw 10 straight underdogs win on the last card. Regardless, I will go with my head.

4 STARS

Tony Ferguson $1.50 vs

Tibau is one of the toughest tests in any division for a fighter looking to break through to the upper echelon of competition. If you can get through Gleison you usually are on your way. That makes this a big fight for Ferg. Tony is the better striker and should be able to outwork Gleison, especially in the second half My biggest concern is that he has made some positional mistakes going for submission in previous fights. If he does that here, especially in close fight, the big Brazilian will get on top and not relinquish the position. I won’t be shocked to see Tony taken down in the first and possibly lose the round, but he will take over in rounds 2 and 3. I felt Tibau edged out Parke because Norman wasn’t active enough on the feet, that shouldn’t be an issue here for Ferguson. I’ll take Ferguson as Gold Parlay leg.

4 STARS

Alan Jouban $1.24 vs

I was honestly a little surprised how heavily favoured Jouban is here. He was able to rally in his debut for a win after getting hurt, but outside of the finishing sequence he didn’t look that great. He looked much better, despite the defeat, vs Warley Alves. He was able to land with power and consistency, but failed to do enough to convince the homer judges that he was he better man. Walsh might not be as flashy a striker, but its serviceable and he packs some power. I think his grappling is the key to his success, Jouban’s defensive grappling needs some work. He might be good off his back, but the activity of Walsh from top position and simply the optics will weigh heavily in the Aussie’s favour. I think you are getting some serious value on Walsh here with him being slightly undervalued and Jouban being a little overvalued. As good as Jouban has looked, he isn’t that far removed from a being bested by Mike Rhodes. A Single bet, potentially in the Gold package (based on value) is most likely the best avenue here.

4 STARS

Jake Ellenberger $1.51 vs

Ellenberger is experiencing the down turn of his career, Koscheck is too, he just further along. The vast majority of the TUF 1 competitors have packed it in and Kos is right behind them. If Kos can’t find success with his wrestling, I struggle to see him out striking Ellenberger enough to take a decision. Jake can’t beat the upper echelon of the division, but he will take this one. This fight actually reminds me a little bit of Kos/Hughes from a few years ago. The old lion taking on another lion on his way out, but still good enough to best the old guy. Jake pays a little better then I expected so I will hit up Gold parlay bet here.

4 STARS

Raquel Pennington $7.45 vs

Holly comes in with a lot of momentum and hype. Is she the next big thing to challenge Ronda? Maybe, but she has to get a win here. In fact, I would like to see her get 2-3 wins before getting her shot- but that won’t be the case. Pennington is no easy out, but she is also a nice gradual step into the upper echelon of the division. A play on a side here is not worth it, a bet on the total is most likely the best avenue for your money. Check the prop section for more details4 STARS

Ronda Rousey $1.10 vs

This fight should be fun while it last. If Cat can get through the first round we could have ourselves a fight, but I don’t see her surviving the early action. She is a slow starter and has been put in some tough spots on the mat by both Tate and Nunes. She endured and rallied, that won’t be the case versus Rousey. She is a finisher. Like Pennington/Holm the side isn’t worth your money- be the total.

1. Derrick Lewis $1.21 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Ronda Rousey $1.10 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Jake Ellenberger $1.51 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Holly Holm $1.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Mark Munoz $1.33

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6. Tony Ferguson $1.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. James Krause $1.58

8. Tim Means $1.75 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Richard Walsh $4.73

10. Alex Torres $2.38

11. Roman Salazar $3.47

 

1. Richard Walsh $4.73  // I really like this fight and it should be a good one. If Walsh can work his wrestling with consistency that will be a massive step towards victory. Either way I think the bettor is getting significant value here.

2. Roman Salazar $3.47  // I have had success picking against Kid in the past, taking Lee and Uyenoyama to pull off the wins. He is headed towards retirement (even with a win)- he is too old and been out too long. Salazar survives early and takes control.

3. Tim Means $1.75 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med // He has to stay off his back to win this bout, but his aggressive striking will be the difference maker. A stoppage could happen, but the decision is possible.

4. Alex Torres $2.38  // Torres is green, very green. Look for him to have made serious improvements since the show with such a big gap in time.

5. Rousey/

1. N/A

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3.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Betting Scenario Information

 

Prop Bets

Masio Fullen/

See the Betting Scenario Section.

James Krause/

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Derrick Lewis/

Potts was able to hang on in his last fight against Anthony Hamilton just long enough to hit the over. It cost me a significant amount of cash, but it was a very profitable night nonetheless. Hamilton probably could have finished had he shown a little urgency, but he seemed more willing to methodically pick Potts apart until the ref stepped in. That won’t be the case with Lewis who throws hard and throws often. He should be able to get the finish inside the first round. The price isn’t flashy, but it does push the profit line enough to be worth it.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Kos hasn’t got out of the first round in his last 2 fights and Ellenberger has high finishing rate when not facing elite level competition. Jake has had some issues with a lack of aggression, as was the case versus Hieron, which could see this fight drift into the second half. I will take a shot here that Kos comes out hard and Ellenberger sends him tumbling to the mat.

Raquel Pennington/

Holm has been an absolute finisher, but a lot of those wins have come in the second half. Frequently when fighters accustom to finishing their opponents make the jump to the UFC against a step up in competition we will see the fight end in a decision. Pennington is tough so I think she can hang around for the Over.

Ronda Rousey/Ca

Cat has struggle early in her 2 UFC fights, but be able to survive. Ronda is on an entirely different level compared to those that Cat fought. While I would love to see this bout go into the 2nd round and beyond, I just don’t see it. Play the Under.

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